Winning  the  Campaign    

Nega%ve  Campaigning  

Željko  Zidarić  Civic  Innova1on  Incubator  July  7,  2014  

I  inkubator

Anyone can become angry ��� - that is easy, but to be angry with the right person at the right time, and for the right purpose and in the right way ��� - that is not within everyone's power and that is not easy. Aristotle - Nicomachean Ethics Book II, 1109.a27

Act

ivist

s

Vide

o In

dex Negative Campaigning

•  Introduction •  Objectives •  How it works •  Your Offense Plan •  Your Defense Plan

Introduction

Neg

ativ

e ad

s

The Wesleyan Media Project

Neg

ativ

ity

Negative

Contrast

Positive

2000 2004 2008 2012

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20%

19%

Oba

ma

McC

ain

Primary Election

June-November

68%

62%

18%

Neg

ativ

ity

Obama 30 min

Hope Change Fear

Professor William Benoit, Ohio University

Negative Campaign Ads

Ad

Type

s

Negative Opponent

Weaknesses

Positive You

Strengths

Benefits Costs

Who

le S

tory Opponent’s ���

Positive Campaign

Your ���Negative Campaign

Neg

ativ

e A

ds

Negative Opponent

Weaknesses

Comparative

Attack

Com

pare

Negative Opponent

Weaknesses

Compare Contrast

Attack

You + Them -

All about opponent

Info

rm Debate Character Intellect

Busi

ness

Negative Opponent

Weaknesses

Compare Contrast

Attack

Fear Uncertainty Doubt

Shoc

kver

tisin

g

Bacteria are lurking everywhere!

Shoc

kver

tisin

g

Polit

ics

Negative Opponent

Weaknesses

Compare Contrast

Attack

Fear (Anxiety) Anger

Disgust

argumentum ad metum

Them

es ✓ ✓

✓

✗ ✗ Person Policy

Past

Futu

re

Message

Tim

e Compare and ���contrast is good Democracy ��� requires negativity •  Accountability •  Criticize problems •  Better Options

•  Fully informed

What will happen

Costs Consequences

Full Story

Willing to pay price?

Them

es

Person Policy

Past

Futu

re

Message

Tim

e

But tell the

truth Th

emes

Person Policy

Past

Futu

re

Message

Tim

e

What happened

Accomplishments Failures

Opponent Failed

Them

es

Person Policy

Past

Futu

re

Message

Tim

e

Credibility

Unfit Not Capable

Opponent Will Fail

Them

es

Person Policy

Past

Futu

re

Message

Tim

e

Character

Morals Trust

Oooops

Them

es

Person Policy

Past

Futu

re

Message

Tim

e

War

ning

argumentum ad hominem

is not valid debate tactic

When the debate is lost,

slander becomes the

tool of the loser. - Socrates

Objectives

Win

ning

✗  50%

of voters +1

Win

ning

✔  50%

of votes +1

Critical bit

Total Voters

Total Votes

10% might not vote

30% already decided

20% persuadable

40% will not vote

Obj

ectiv

e

Independent Undecided

2 Pa

rty

Democrat Republican

Mobilize your

supporters

Suppress their

supporters

Independent Undecided

2 Pa

rty

Democrat Republican

Suppress the middle

Center

Mul

ti Pa

rty

Progressive Conservative

Conservative Party

Liberal Party

New Democrat

Party

Undecided

Center

Mul

ti Pa

rty

Progressive Conservative

Undecided

Party 3 Party 2

Party 1 Party 4

Swin

g St

ates 800,000 independent voters

in 12 swing states

Opi

nion I do not agree with ���

voter suppression ���

because I see it as a manipulative

strategy to prevent people from

exercising their democratic ���

rights and obligations.

How i

How it works

Cave

man

Pol

itics

Nega1ve  Bias  =  Survival  

Loss

Ave

rsio

n

Is  everyone  doing  their  part?  

Loss

Ave

rsio

n The pain of loss ���is almost twice as strong as the reward felt from a gain Pl

easu

re

Pain

Loss Gain

Small Pleasure

Big Pain Counter-balanced by

Optimism bias

•  Confirmation bias •  Negativity bias •  In-group bias •  Gambler’s fallacy •  Observational selection bias •  Status-quo bias •  Bandwagon effect •  Projection bias •  Current moment bias •  Anchoring effect Co

gniti

ve B

iase

s

Def

ense

Sys

tem

Force  fie

ld  

Fear

Anger

Humor Positive

Promise

Hope

Proc

ess

• Fear  • Anger  • Disgust  • Hope  

Emotion

Reason

Adoration Attraction Affection Fondness

Compassion Passion Caring Liking

Longing Tenderness

Love   Joy   Sadness   Anger  Fear  

Pleasure Enthusiasm Happiness Satisfaction Eagerness

Cheerfulness Optimism

Contentment Relief Pride Zest

Grief Sorrow Misery

Disappointment Hopelessness

Depression Despair

Unhappiness Loneliness

Shame Regret

Remorse

Frustration Irritation

Exasperation Resentment

Torment Rage

Disgust Agitation

Envy Jealousy Bitterness

Hate

Anxiety Worry

Distress Horror Dread Shock Terror Fright Panic

Hysteria Apprehension

Emot

ions

F A

D

Flight Fight Avoid

Fear

Flight Fear is a response to a stimulus perceived as a threat ���– either now or in future. •  Rapid decisions •  Black or white thinking •  Herd mentality

Ang

er

Fight Anger is a response related to psychological interpretation of having been threatened. •  Powerful tool •  Catalyst for action •  Optimism + control •  Respected response

Dis

gust Avoid

Disgust is a feeling of revulsion to the unhealthy. •  Risk minimization •  Preventative response •  Withdraw + avoid •  Long tem imprint

Contempt = Anger + Disgust

Dis

gust

ing?

Mylie Cyrus

Dis

gust

ing?

Good role model for our daughters?

Dis

gust

1.6  

1.8  

2.0  

2.2  Disgust  S

ensi1

vity  

Conserva1ves  are  more  easily  disgusted  than  Liberals  

Inbar, Pizarro, Iyer & Haidt (2012) “Disgust sensitivity, political conservatism and voting”

N  =  29,623  in  USA  

Neuroscientist Paul D. MacLean, 1960s

The

Brai

n 3 1.    Rep%lian  

     FEAR        Fight  or  Flight    

2.  Limbic        Emo1ons  +  Values        amygdala  hijacking    

3.  Neocortex        Ra1onal  Thought  

2

1

System 2 D

ual P

roce

ss

Fast and easy

Slow and difficult

System 1

Dua

l Pro

cess 1890 William James Associative True Reason

1986 Petty & Cacioppo Peripheral Central

1996 Steven Sloman Associative Rule Based

2000 Stanovich & West System 1 System 2

2003 Daniel Kahneman Intuitive Reasoning

2004 Strack & Deutch Impulsive Reflective

2011 Daniel Kahneman Fast Slow

Fast

or S

low

Fast

or S

low

Cumulative Resources

Cum

ulat

ive

Valu

e Cr

eate

d 80%

98%

X 2X

Fast System 1

Slow System 2

Fast

AN

D S

low

Slow You System 2

Fast You System 1

Your Offense Plan

Goa

ls

Negative ads that work aren’t ‘negative.’ ������They are ‘hard-hitting issue ads about our opponent’s record of shame!’ Alex Castellanos Republican strategist

All

Posi

tive 2004 ���

“No Negative” Campaign ������It doesn’t pay to be a Boy scout.

Proc

ess

Effor

t & E

xpen

se

Elec

tion

Elec

tion Election

Campaign

Positive Campaign Educate

Negative Feel

Negative Positive

Proc

ess

Duration

Effor

t & E

xpen

se

Elec

tion

Elec

tion Election

Campaign

Prepare Negative

Prepared Pr

econ

ditio

n re

port

ers

Educ

ate

vote

rs

Prep

arat

ion

“It’s not the will to win that matters - everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matter.” - Paul “Bear” Bryant

Rese

arch

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats

Inte

rnal

Exte

rnal

Star

t Tim

e

E-Day C-start ? ? ?

When to start? - The sooner the better, but ….

Resources

Broke

Too early?

Too late?

Ad

Budg

et

The Wesleyan Media Project

Daily  Num

ber  o

f  Ads  

Repu

blican  

Democrat  

5,000  

5,000  

-­‐140   -­‐120   -­‐100   -­‐80   -­‐60   -­‐40   -­‐20   0  

Days  to  Elec1on  

2008  Daily  Democra1c  and  Republican  Ads  

Elec1o

n  Da

y  

Neg

ativ

e Ti

min

g

Duration

AS %

of t

otal

ads

Elec

tion

100%

50%

Scenario B

Scenario C

Negative Campaign Expenses

Scenario A

Targ

ets

Media

Voters

Opponent Put opponent on defensive

Influence them to investigate - get earned media

Influence •  suppress the undecided •  force voters to reassess •  mobilize your support base.

Influ

ence

Rip

ples

David Armano

1  

3  3  

3  

3  

3  

4  

4  

4  

4  

4   4  

4  

4  

4  

4  

2  

2  

2  X  

3  

4  

4  

2  4  

You

3rd Party

You can’t make the campaign about something

people don’t want the campaign to be about.

Independent Undecided

Neg

ativ

e

Progressive Conservative

Motivate and Mobilize your core

Demotivate and Suppress their core

Neg

ativ

e

Progressive Conservative

Motivate and Mobilize your core

Anger

Fight

Neg

ativ

e

Progressive Conservative

Demotivate and Suppress their core

Fear

Flight

Independent Undecided

Neg

ativ

e

Progressive Conservative

Suppress the middle

Posi

tive

Optimism Happiness

2016: Obama's America 2012 documentary by conservative author |���and commentator Dinesh D'Souza. July 13, 2012 (limited) August 24, 2012 (wide Run Time 89 minutes Budget $2.5 million N

egat

ive

v2.0

Valid

ate

Test before you attack!

Know

Opp

onen

t

If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Hon

esty

in A

ds People  want  ads  that  are:  

•  More  about  issues  than  traits  •  Issues  that  relate  to  governing  •  Be  more  specific  than  vague  •  Prove  it  through  documenta1on    

Nega)ve  ads  are  more  about    real  issues  than  are  posi)ve  ads  

John  C.  Greer,  In  Defense  of  Nega1vity  

Topi

cs

Attack your opponent where you are strongest - make opponent part of your story 1.  About the public record and issues

2.  What the costs of their policies will be 1.  Past policies 2.  Future Policies

3.  Qualifications of your opponent 1.  Experience: Have they been in office before? 2.  Traits: Do they flip-flop? 3.  Out of touch?

Topi

cs

1.  Be Fair: Make sure you throw clean mud! •  Factual and documented

2.  Us substantive arguments 3.  Say something positive about your opponent ���

then disagree

4.  Use negative ads judiciously •  Strategically timed •  Use in moderation at proper intervals

5.  Graphic and audio design = emotion

Play

book

s

Karl Rove Saul Alinsky

Righ

t - K

arl R

ove

Rovian Counter-thrust Take away your opponents

competitive advantage

The  Rovian  Playbook:  Campaign  Tac1cs    

Tac1c    1:  Take  the  offensive  Tac1c    2:  Aaack  your  opponent’s  strengths    Tac1c    3:  Accuse  your  opponent  of  what  they  will  accuse  you  of  Tac1c    4:  Go  Nega1ve,  then  cry  foul  Tac1c    5:  The  “Big  Lie”  Tac1c    6:  Appeal  to  moral  values  Tac1c    7  Sell  the  Bush  persona  Tac1c    8:  Sell  an  adolescent  worldview  Tac1c    9:  Exploit  the  media  Tac1c  10:  Create  straw  issues  Tac1c  11:  Employ  surrogates    Tac1c  12:  Use  emo1onal  appeals  Tac1c  13:  Rely  on  expert  tes1monials  Tac1c  14:  Rhetorical  devices  Tac1c  15:  Use  of  language  

Saul Alinsky – Rules for Radicals

1.  Power is not only what you have ��� but what the enemy thinks you have.

2.  Never go outside the experience of your people. 3.  Go outside the experience of the enemy. 4.  Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules. 5.  Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. 6.  A good tactic is one that your people enjoy. 7.  A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag. 8.  Keep the pressure on. 9.  The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself. 10. If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through. 11.  The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative. 12. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it. Left

- Sa

ul A

linsk

y

Play

book

s Obama teaching the Alinsky Model

Your Defense Plan

Be R

eady

Duration

Effor

t & E

xpen

se

Elec

tion

Elec

tion Election

Campaign

Prepare Negative

Prepared

By failing to prepare, ���you are preparing to fail. ― Benjamin Franklin

Stay

on

Cour

se

Opponent story

Your story

Elec

tion

Pull off story  

Stay on story

Def

ense Stay on

Message

Counter attack Add to your story

Ignore Frivolous

Strong Rebuttal On Core Issues

Def

ense

Admit

Deny

Deflect

Stonewall

Formal  fallacies  Proposi1onal  fallacies  Quan1fica1on  fallacies  Formal  syllogis1c  fallacies    Red  herring  fallacies  •  associa1on  fallacy  •  appeal  to  emo1on  •  argumentum  ad  hominum  •  argumentum  ad  populum  •  argumentum  ad  baculum  •  argumentum  ad  consequen1am  

Informal  fallacies  •  false  aaribu1on  •  if-­‐by-­‐whiskey    •  moral  high  ground  •  moralis1c  fallacy  •  moving  the  goalposts    •  onus  probandi  •  pe11o  principii  •  argumentum  ad  nauseam  •  argumentum  ad  temperan1am  •  argumentum  e  silen1o  •  cum  hoc  ergo  propter  hoc  •  circulus  in  demonstrando  

Logi

c Fa

llaci

es

Out

of T

ouch

?

Be the People

Be P

ositi

ve

Stay Humble

Be P

ositi

ve

Our strength does not come ���from what we fight against ���but from what we fight for.

Cont

act Zeljko  Zidaric  

Civic  Innova1on  Incubator    zzidaric@gmail.com