Needs of water resources decision-makers for decadal climate predictions

Andrea J. Ray

NOAA Earth Systems Research Lab & NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment

CLIVAR Science Symposium

Irvine, CA

14 July 2008

OverviewRich arena for applications:

Decadal scale of many water & natural resource decisionsWho studies these

A couple of examples: Decision and planning processes and use of information

USBR reservoir management Powell-Mead “Shortage Sharing” EISFront Range Municipal Water planning

Types of uses and how this relates to needs

Potential for use in climate risk management ….and adaptation?

Importance of boundary organizations, e.g. RISA’s, IRI, etc for ongoing interactions with users

Uses of decadal information: needs, users, and uses

Societal impacts in several sectors

water (reservoir management, municipal water supply), fire management, public health, agriculture -- esp permaculture, drought mitigation/planning

Management communities who can take advantage

Targets for user-oriented experiments, training/education

Planning, their scenarios, hedging

Interest in climate change, not familiar with decadal variability

Skill…

Not as simple as threshold “level required to be societally useful”

Shifts in risks of extreme events vs specific events forecasted

Rich arena for applications

Decadal scale of many water & natural resource decisions

• Water -- UCBR/reservoirs & municipal water supply

• Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

• Forest Management Plans, National Parks

• Endangered species recovery plans

• Upper Colorado endangered fish

• Multi-species conservation plan for the Lower Colorado

• Salmon

• Public health–Heat waves; Air quality; risk of temperature-related diseases

•Many different ongoing planning processes

• Opportunities for 2-way learning and new information in each new process

Who are the Water Resources “Users” of information? • Municipal/residential and industrial water

suppliers & organizations

• Agricultural water users and organizations

• Government managers, regulators, policymakers, planners (local, state, federal)

• Professional organizations & networks of all of these

• Scientists and engineers

• Providers of products and services

(govt, pvt, media)

• NGOs (e.g., biodiversity interests)

• Recreation interests, individual and companies

• Boundary organizations, which work between scientists and users

• where do these water managers talk to each other

Regional Integrated Science & Assessments (RISA): one set of boundary organizations

Eight regional projects, US and border focus, earliest began ~1995; primarily empirical studies

Mechanisms to elicit and understand user needsPerception, cognitive, communications studies Integrate and synthesize needs across groupsDetermine what services should be: part of a dialogue about risksTake advantage of social science studies of cognition, adoption and diffusion of innovations, and methodologiesFocus on users’ problem orientations: drought, hydropower, multi-purpose reservoir management; long-term planning; annual planning

Decision studies of water management and agricultureCharacterize decisions and decisionmakersInstitutional/legalOrganizational/behavioral

Experiments in communicating with stakeholders and in creating and sustaining partnerships over time

Reservoir management, drought task forces, climate change and state water supply planning

Example of long term planning and climate: Drought impacts on Lake Powell

• 2007 water year runoff into Lake Powell was 51%average, part of long term drought

• Demands on the river are increasing

• Risk of call on the river? Upper Basin States (CO, WY, UT, NM) may soon be required to cease water diversions that are junior to the 1922 Colorado Compact in order to meet obligations to downstream users

• Years-decades to fill/re-fill: concern about multi-year drought

What if climate change reduces flows on the River?

From Harding, 2006, www.hydrosphere.com

- USBR Long term planning, evolution of operating criteria

Policy landscape provides opportunities to incorporate climate information

- “Shortage sharing agreement,” Environmental Impact Statement and EIS for the Aspinall Unit on the Gunnison River

- Ongoing implementation of endangered species recovery plans (MSCP, CRRIP) and Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Program

Opportunities

Reservoir Management uses of information

Powell-Mead “Shortage Sharing” EISLatest in a series of management innovationsMost extensive use yet of climate information

Paleo record to represent richer range of droughts“Appendix U” coordinated thru RISAs

Decadal information is critical to management scale

Climate risk management ….and adaptation?More than just the right products, and occurs in a dialogue about risksUnderstanding the nature of risk and information/knowledge needed to manage risk Managing water in the context of changing climate -- adaptation strategies

Front Range Municipalities Study

Uses of climate information & forecastsFactors affecting the use of climate information and forecasts

Six Front Range water providers: Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, Boulder, Westminster, Denver, Colorado Springs, and Aurora

Serve about 60% of Colorado’s population

Context:

Interactions with WWA and other climate information providers since 1998

Drought in 2002

Different contexts for growth, water supply reliability; use change, etc

NorthernBoulder

DenverWestminster

Colorado Springs

Aurora

Perspectives from user studies: What do they want? Historical data & projections of these at a basin/sub-basin

scale Snowpack/SWESoil moistureStreamflow current/forecastedTiming of spring peak; “holes” in a river (low flows)Reservoir levelsGround waterSurface water supply index (SWSI)

Palmer Drought IndexTemperatureEvapotranspiration, evaporative lossesDemand metrics, water and hydropowerOutlooks of these, and how ppt and temp outlooks relate, e.g., ppt needed to raise levels to near-average or other thresholds

Longer term municipal water planning

Drought as part of longer term planning, beyond drought of record -- paleoAssess the potential for future systems to cope with drought: streamflows from the historic recordPlanning for projects to “firm-up” yield

Windy Gap surpluses from early 90’s, but none since -- decadal variationOther supply options

Demand projections: primarily population basedTemperature trend not considered

Several agencies now using paleoclimate reconstructions to expand the types of drought they evaluateInterest in assessments: range of potential climate change scenarios, droughts that have occurred outside the instrumental record

Perspectives from across user studies: Users needs:Longer-range questions

• Increasing requests for information on interannual and decadal time scales (+ 5, 10, 15 years)

• Reservoir inflows over several years (at least 2)• Drought outlooks over the next decade• Are the historical droughts of record still a valid planning tool?• Are return periods for flooding still valid?

• “Can we produce reliable baselines for planning to give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations?”

• “Are the assumptions of planning borne out under projections of varying and changing climates?”• e.g. 1906 Rio Grande treaty definition of “extra-ordinary drought” invoked 14 times over the last 50 years• “Do present simulations of change adequately represent modes of variations (ENSO, NAO, PDO etc.) ?”•How might ENSO change under climate change

Types of “use”Consult: the product is consulted, e.g., looked up on a web page or received as a briefing or from other source (type1)

Consider: after consulting the product, it is considered in management deliberations as a factor potentially influencing decisions, but not necessarily in operational models (type 2)

Mental models, judgement, experience.

Projections/forecasts may be used in this way when they are not in appropriate forms for use in operational models

Incorporate: some form of the forecast is incorporated into an operational model that is utilized in operational decisions (type 3)

May be objective

Dialogue about risks: communication of risk, i.e. the forecast is used to communicate with other managers and stakeholders about the risk of certain conditions and about the need to take actions, or to justify actions (type 4)

•Water resource decisionmakers use climate information (e.g. during drought) in a dialogue with their stakeholders about the risk of low inflows, flooding, e.g., and the need to take actions, or to justify actions

What’s skill got to do with it?*• Depends on….

•The decisions, what’s being forecast

• often concern is about risk of events, and planning to mitigate, avoid,

• skill of other factors in a decision or planning process

•The level of climate literacy of the user, and how familiarity with forecasting ()

• High “threshold,” e.g. 75% from Pulwarty & Redmond ‘97 -- true -- but an early stage in understanding for most users

• Better than climatology

• Improve on historic record as a planning tool for extremes?

Long range planning by agencies at multiple space and time scales

Federal: USBR (reservoir plans), USFS (forest management plans), Drought/NIDIS (mitigation planning)State water planningRegional and local govts (e.g. Denver Water)

Support water managers and planners’ dialogues with their own stakeholdersDialogue about climate-related risks with policy and planning for 20-50 year horizons

long-lived policies likely to encounter multi-year droughts and impacts of observed trends

Synthesis of research into products & analysis that connect climate impacts to water management impacts:Temperature --> evaporation, rain/snow mix, urban demand, length of growing

seasonTiming of spring runoff (Dettinger, Cayan) --> water rights, reservoir reliabilitySynchroneity (Hamlet, Jain) --> diversity of supply sources

Interest in these for the Shortage Sharing EIS for Lakes Powell and Mead

Uses of decadal information I: who, for what, how

Uses of decadal information II: who, for what, how

Reducing vulnerability to climate variations requires consideration of a range of climate scenarios in planning and policy development

multi-year droughts and the impacts increased temperaturesSupport for 20-50 yr planning horizons

Capability to view and compare information from multiple sourcesNeed user-oriented metadata, descriptionsGIS widely used by resource agencies, state/local planners, but climate information has not generally provided by NOAA in these formatsConnect types of data and projections

Work with Integrated Assessment groups, including RISAsconnect with specific user groupselicit and understand detailed user needs and common needshave long-term partnerships and experiment with communicating information and aboutriskUnderstand the pathways that are used for information

Decision Support III: Long-range planning and policyPolicy-relevant Science questionschanges in snowpack, accumulation season, timing of spring runoff, increases in water demand from temperature increaseschanges in the length of the growing seasonImpact of temperature trend alone (most skill): ET, drought indices, soil moisture, Changes in ENSO with climate changeChanges in the risk of extreme events:

Drought, runs of dry years, food risk, severe stormsCold air outbreaks, heat waves

Disconnect between the scientific literature and information for managers: Need for synthesis: Panel of experts to contribute to the Lower Colorado office of Reclamation contribute to EIS(other RISAs participating)

Model for use of decadal information: engaging users, information publically available as a peer-reviewed report, education of water resources users

Potential for PI-based, peer-reviewed process to produce information for water management?

Thank you Andrea J. Ray, Ph.DNOAA Earth Systems Research Lab andrea.ray@noaa.gov

What is potentially predictable Spectrum of User Needs

Current Forecast Products

Relationships among current products, potentially predictable, and needed climate information

How drought information might be used: WWA observations

“Conversation” within water management groups and with their stakeholders, and with scientists

Mental models of managers for their systems are important as well as hydrologic and management models

Relationship of information to their triggers, thresholds

As interested in the information behind the Drought Monitor as the DM itself, in order to make their own assessments

Synthesis of research into products & analysis that connect climate impacts to water management impacts:Temperature --> evaporation, rain/snow mix, urban demand, length of

growing seasonTiming of spring runoff (Dettinger, Cayan) --> water rights, reservoir

reliabilitySynchroneity (Hamlet, Jain) --> diversity of supply sources

Issues for a policy-relevant “Mountain Hydroclimate” science enterprise

Data needed for management, calibrate, verify, initialize modelsSupport observations and data management, and a coherent policy for the multi-agency system that supports hydroclimate data collectionNWS data, USGS streamflow data, and National Resource Conservation Service snow and soil moisture data among many othersMetadata too!

Policy-relevant science questions require synthesis and “assessment”Individual PI-driven science only partly meets needs – need interconnected projectsUnfortunately, to date, scientific assessments like the IPCC have focused on the global and continental scale effects of climate change and hence are of limited use to regionally focused decision-making.

Regional, regional, regional…..Actually communicating with policymakers is a whole different talk….

Concluding thoughtsChanging context has introduced criticality for water management of the Colorado Basin

Sensitivity to “drought” increasing even if no change in hydrology

Reducing vulnerability requires consideration of a range of climate scenarios in planning and policy development

multi-year droughts and the impacts increased temperaturesSupport for 20-50 yr planning horizons

Water Providers, Environmentalists, NGOs need to be partners in creation of science

Embedded researchers; better job on educating these partners

Beyond forecasts to an additional category of services: connecting climate impacts to water management impacts in a dialogue with managers to support decisions“assessments” on science by multiple PIs with policy focus/parter

How does a process-oriented, PI-driven program participate and contribute to the larger service??

Synthesis projects and X-RISA efforts are a start

Thank you Andrea J. Ray, Ph.DNOAA Earth Systems Research Lab andrea.ray@noaa.gov

Decadal “needs”

Integrated Implications of climate change temperature trend

Support use of “scenarios” in water resource planning -- what ifs, and how resilient is the system, vs prediction

Importance of boundary organizations

Decadal “services”

***

Forecast, hydrological assessment

Resource Assessment

AOPAnnual Operating Plan

Water and other Agencies, State and Federal

Multi-Resource Coordination & Management Working Groups

Scales

Hydrological decision support model with climate forecasts

Individual agency responsibilities

Interaction of primary focuswith other issues

Hydrologic Scenarios1. Likely April-July inflow volume2. Monthly release schedules for hydropower and irrigation planning 3. 4. Flood control5. Minimum flows 6. Other resource conditions

[Issues]1. Recreational trout spawning 2. Recreation management, on and around reservoir 3. Irrigation planning 4. In stream flow conditions 5. Maintenance scheduling6. Legal obligations, I.e., interstate compacts7. Other resource conditions

[Scenarios]1. Peak flow enhancement opportunities2. Time since last target peak flows 3. Effects of hydrologic scenario on other resource conditions4. 5. Political issues

Method: use HDSS and climate info to discover how diff climate scenarios are

stressors on the evolving system

Current method: hydrologic

decision support model

Next steps: 1) process of

negotiation to develop better operational products;

Method: Institutional analysis: who’s making decisions about resource allocation

New Water Managers’ criteria Operational Forecast criteria:

Value Consistency Quality Murphy, 1993

Decision making criteria: Credibility of provider and reliability of informationAccessibility of information, compatibility, complexityLegitimacy

Participation of water managers’ stakeholders in plans and decisions about operations, and decisions influenced by acknowledgement of interdependence

Thank you!

Andrea J. Ray

NOAA Earth Systems Research Lab;

Western Water Assessment,

Andrea.ray @ noaa.gov

What’s needed for decision supportBeyond forecasts --> “Services” Dialogue about climate-related risks with policy and planning for 20-50 year horizons

Not forecasting for these horizons, but long-lived policies likely to encounter multi-year droughts and impacts of observed trends

Synthesis of research into products & analysis that connect climate impacts to water management impacts:Temperature --> evaporation, rain/snow mix, urban demand, length of growing seasonTiming of spring runoff (Dettinger, Cayan) --> water rights, reservoir reliabilitySynchroneity (Hamlet, Jain) --> diversity of supply sources

Interest in these for the Shortage Sharing EIS

Decision Support II

Support year to year decisions on efficient management of storage and releasesMore important for Lower Colorado below Lake Mead and reservoirs above Lake Powell

Seasonal and sub-seasonal forecastsOffice of Hydrology (Schaake talk Thurs. p.m.)U.Washington group (Lettenmaier, Hamlet, Wood)Potential improved subseasonal streamflow forecasting

Educate and support USBR and other water managers about these new products as they become availablePartner to ensure that these products are compatible with USBR decision support models and frameworks

ConclusionsChanging context has introduced criticality for water management of the Colorado Basin

Increased risk of shortages due to increasing demandShortages related to climate variability and change likely to have greater impact -- increased vulnerability in the system

Points of vulnerability similar to SSD conclusionsReducing vulnerability requires consideration of a range of climate scenarios in planning and policy development

multi-year droughts and the impacts increased temperaturesSupport for 20-50 yr planning horizons

Services beyond forecasts as an additional category of services: connecting climate impacts to water management impacts in a dialogue with managers to support decisions

What do they want? Longer-range questions

• Increasing requests for information on interannual and decadal time scales (5, 10, 15 years into the future)

• Reservoir inflows over several years (at least 2)• Drought outlooks over the next decade

• “Can we produce reliable baselines for planning to give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations?”

•“Are the assumptions of planning borne out under projections of varying and changing climates?” • e.g. 1906 Rio Grande treaty definition of “extra-ordinary drought” invoked 14 times over the last 50 years•“Do present simulations of change adequately represent modes of variations (ENSO, NAO, PDO etc.) ?”

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Spatial National

Crop

Regional

Requesting

WWA timeline

1997-98 2005-61999

Climate context

El Nino La Nina 2002 Drought

<-------------Extended Drought------------>

Climate Change Interest

1st WWA W

orkshop

Reservoir mgr w

orkshops

WY05 Outlook Brie

fing SLC

Drought rapid re

sponse

2000-1 2002

Differences in perspective: scientists and managers

Factor Scientist’s perspective Water Manager’s Perspective

Identifying a critical issue

Based on a broad understanding of the nature of water management Based on experience of a particular system

Time frame Variable Immediate (operations)Long-term (infrastructure)

Spatial resolution Defined by data availability or funding Defined by institutional boundaries or authorities

Goals PredictionExplanationUnderstanding of natural system

Optimization of multiple conditions and minimization of risk

Basis for Decisions Generalizing multiple facts and observationsUse of scientific procedures and methodsAvailability of research fundingDisciplinary perspective

Tradition; ProcedureProfessional judgment; TrainingEconomics; PoliticsJob risks

Expectation UnderstandingPredictionOngoing improvement (project is never actually complete)Statistical significance of resultsInnovations in methods/theory

Accuracy of informationAppropriate methodologySave money and time; Protect the public;Protect their jobs, agendas or institutions

Product Characteristics

ComplexScientifically defensible

As simple as possible without losing accuracyImportance of context

Frame Physical (atmospheric, hydrologic, etc.) conditions as driversDependent on scientific discipline

Safety and well beingProfitConsistency with institutional culture, policy, etc.

Nature of Use Conceptual Applied

Some conclusions from across user-studies projects:

needs for water-related decisionmaking? • Scientists need to collaborate with these sophisticated, but

non-climate experts in a common language

• Variables and indices

• flexible formats, areas, time scales

• tools to relate observations, historical data, and forecasts to water managers perspectives, e.g. to their problems

• Ways to evaluate climate scenarios in their management scenarios

• Tools for managers to talk to their stakeholders

• Benchmarks beyond “idealized value”

• Partnerships

• Interactions maintained over time

• Influence of scientists on the drought planning process and of water managers on science done

• Innovation in both science and management from interaction

• Fora for communication, learning, bringing perspectives together

Current uses of climate information in municipal water management

Use of the instrumental record of hydro-climate variables in planning and operations modelsThe use of climate influenced hydro-climate parameters to generate projections of streamflow, reservoir contents, or water supply

SWE, historic records of streamflow, water year precipitation

Use of paleoclimate data, e.g. reconstructions of SWE or streamflowUse of forecasts of climate variables, e.g., precipitation or temperature, such as the NOAA/CPC Monthly and Seasonal Climate Forecasts, or medium-range weather forecasts

Climate variability reflected in annual and longer term operations in ways other than use of forecasts

• USBR Long term planning, evolution of operating criteria

However, in the event of a shortage, vague and often contradictory laws and policy mandates

Non-allocated uses, e.g. recreational and environmental are particularly sensitive, yet these have increased in economic importance

2007 policy landscape provides opportunities to incorporate climate information:

Ongoing implementation of endangered species recovery plans (MSCP, CRRIP) and Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Program

Shortage sharing agreement,” EIS and the Environmental Impact Statement for the Aspinall Unit on the Gunnison River

Opportunities