NEBRASKA WORKFORCE

TRENDSTRENDSMARCH 2020 ISSUE | NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Inside this issue

Predicting Nebraska’s Employment Future: The Projections Process

Map Facts: Population Change by County

Fast Facts: Then vs. Now – Nebraska Over Time

2

Image by Pieter van de Sande from Unsplash

Contents

3 Openings & Expansions

4 Map Facts: Population Change by County

12 Fast Facts: Then vs. Now – Nebraska Over Time

15 Economic Indicators

6 Predicting Nebraska’s Employment Future: The Projections Process

Helpful LinksLabor Market Publications

Previous Issues

NEworks.nebraska.gov

Reader Feedback Survey

CreditsCommissionerJohn H. Albin

Research AnalystsJodie MeyerKermit SpadeRachel Stevens

Editors Rachel StevensGrace Johnson Scott Hunzeker

Graphic Designer Hillary Lee

Source: Nebraska Department of LaborOpenings and expansions listed are a sampling of activity reported for that month. Some activity may have occurred outside the month. If you have an opening or expansion to report, contact us at LMI_NE@nebraska.gov.

Business Category Business Name Location

Accommodation & Hospitality

Cobblestone Hotel (Opening)Fairfield Inn & Suites (Opening)

HoldredgeCrete

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation

Cal Reeves Yoga (Opening)Lotus Yoga (Expansion)

NorfolkLincoln

Food Services

Buffalo Wings and Rings (Expansion)Downtowner Casual Café (Opening)

GoodyPop (Opening)MJ Gelato (Opening)

Roma's Italian Restaurant (Opening)

LincolnNebraska City

YorkNorfolk

Scottsbluff

Health Care & Social Assistance Phelps Memorial Health Center (Expansion) Holdredge

ManufacturingAllmand Inc./Briggs & Stratton (Expansion)

BD (Expansion)HoldredgeHoldredge

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Marquis Hair Salon (Opening) Weeping Water

Wholesale & Retail TradeAmish Furniture of Nebraska (Expansion)

The Vault Boutique (Opening)Elkhorn

Weeping Water

Openings & Expansions JanuaryKermit Spade, Research Analyst

MARCH 2020

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3

Image by Alex Sidlinskiy from Pixabay

4

Map FactsKermit Spade, Research Analyst Population

Change by CountyPopulation change can be an important factor in local labor market dynamics. This month’s Map Facts focuses on popula-tion change by county in Nebraska, during the five-year period between 2013 and 2018.

From 2013 to 2018, the total population of the state grew by 3.4%, or 63,135 individual residents. Breaking this change down by county begins to show a pattern. In general, the more urban counties and counties along the I-80 corridor tended to gain population, while the more rural counties tended to lose population. Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy Counties gained the most new residents from 2013 to 2018, with +30,295, +20,221 and +15,623 respectively. Conversely, the populations of Dakota, Scotts Bluff, and Lincoln Counties saw the largest population declines, at -603, -628, and -695 respectively. By percentage change, the counties with the largest decreases in population were Hayes (-17.4%), Arthur (-17.6%), and Blaine (-18.1%). (1)

When compared to the United States as a whole, Nebraska’s total population growth was just slightly below the national average (+3.4% vs. +3.6%). Some starker differences, however, were observed when considering population change by demographics. For example, Nebraska’s Hispanic or Latino population grew by 16.9% from 2013 to 2018, compared to 11.1% growth nationwide. Cubans, a subset of the Hispanic or Latino ethnicity category, increased their population size in Nebraska by 132.6%, increasing from 2,237 to 5,204, compared to just +16.8% in the U.S. as a whole. (1)

55Cherry

-Holt190

Custer-42

37Sioux

Lincoln-695

Sheridan-156

Garden-106

Knox-157

Morrill-117

Keith-148

Dawes-276

Rock-86

Brown-179

Gage-460

29Dundy

Chase-250

Grant104

Clay-237

Buffalo2,145 Otoe

169

41Frontier

Dawson-452

Cedar-267

Kimball-112

York37

Cheyenne-170

Hayes-199

713Platte

-42Perkins

Arthur-89

Blaine-106 4

Loup

-223Box Butte

Burt-220

Banner-120

Boone-128

Polk-87

Furnas-134

Butler-267

Hall1,912

-12Hooker

Saline-60

-32Valley

Pierce-54

99Logan

-89Thomas

-7Harlan

-89Thayer

8Dodge

Adams216

Phelps-66

-97Greeley

303Seward

72McPherson

Cuming-104

97Howard

28Garfield

Fillmore-244

-175Franklin

-47Wheeler

-41Hitchcock Webster

-191

34Kearney

-628Scotts Bluff

-83Pawnee

Cass480

Boyd-51

-228Antelope

Dixon-207

Lancaster20,221

224Saunders

Deuel-58

94Keya Paha

Nance-153

169Madison

10Gosper

Nuckolls-187

265Colfax

1Merrick

Wayne-132

-87Sherman

-209Red Willow

-375Jefferson

88Hamilton

-280

-203

Richardson

Nemaha15

Johnson

225Thurston

Douglas30,295

Dakota-603

Sarpy 15,623

-15Washington

-2.5%Stanton

+ 1 – 300

- 695 – - 301

- 300 – 0

+ 301 – 2,000

+ 2,001 – 30,295

Population Change, 2013 – 2018

Population Change by County, 2013 - 2018

MARCH 2020

The only race/ethnicity category in which Nebraska lost population between 2013 and 2018 was Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (-128). The two fastest-growing age groups in Nebraska were 65 to 74 years, with 23.9% growth over five years, and 60 to 64 years, with 12.7%. The fastest-shrinking age group in Nebraska was 45 to 54 years, at -9.5%. (1)

This analysis reveals that, in recent years, Nebraska has been increasing the size of its population in age groups that are at or approaching retirement age, while also losing people in their prime working ages. Counties that have seen major decreases in population may wish to consider economic development options or other initiatives aimed at growing their working-age populations and ensuring the continued strength of their labor pools.

Sources:1. U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates 2013-2018. Table S0701. [Online] [Cited: February 11, 2020.] data.census.gov.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 5

Predicting Nebraska’s Employment Future: The Projections ProcessJodie Meyer, Research Analyst

This month we will take a closer look at the development process behind some of the Nebraska Department of Labor’s most popular data sets: industry and occupational employment projections. Inquiries about industry or occupational projections accounted for 13.6% of requests for information within the Nebraska Department of Labor (NDOL) office of Labor Market Information (LMI) in 2019. (1) Occupational projections were the second-most-requested type of data, after occupational wage and employment data from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program. (1)

Projections are valued by a wide variety of users, including students, career counselors, and job seekers for career planning; businesses and economic developers to predict future employment needs; and educational program planners for reviewing curriculum. In Nebraska, occupational projections are also used to determine the high demand component of NDOL’s High Wage, Skill, and Demand (H3) occupations list. (2)

Considering their significance to so many Nebraskans, it’s no surprise that many readers are curious about how these projections figures are calculated. This article aims to shed light on the process LMI analysts use to turn statistical data and knowledge of local economic conditions into predictions about the employment situation of tomorrow.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 7

Projections BasicsThrough funding from the federal Workforce Information Grant, NDOL’s LMI office produces projections, by industry and occupation, for two time periods: short-term (two years into the future) and long-term (ten years into the future). (3)

Short-term projections are produced annually, while long-term projections are produced every other year in even-numbered years. New short-term projections for 2019-2021 were released on March 6, 2020. NDOL’s most current long-term projec-tions cover 2016-2026, with new data for 2018-2028 to be released on July 7, 2020.

Projections are created for the state of Nebraska as a whole, as well as each of nine regions: the Omaha Consortium*; the Lincoln and Grand Island Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs); and the Central, Mid Plains, Northeast, Panhandle, Sandhills, and Southeast regions.

Custer

Lincoln

MorrillGarden

Knox

Keith

Gage

Hall

Chase

Buffalo

Grant

Clay

Kimball

York

Otoe

Frontier

Dawson

Cedar

PlatteArthur

Burt

Perkins

Cheyenne

Hayes

Blaine Loup

Grand Island MSA

BooneBanner

Polk Butler

Hooker

Antelope

Saline

Valley

Pierce

Logan

Thomas

Lancaster

Dixon

Harlan Thayer

Dodge

Phelps

Saunders

McPherson

DeuelHoward

Cuming

Seward

Greeley

Fillmore

Garfield

Cherry HoltRockBrown

BoydKeya Paha

Nance

MadisonWheeler

Nuckolls

Merrick

Colfax

Gosper

Scotts Bluff

Jefferson

Wayne

Sherman

Dundy FurnasHitchcock Red Willow

Adams

Franklin Webster

Kearney

Hamilton

Stanton

Pawnee Richardson

Johnson Nemaha

Thurston

Dakota

Cass

Douglas

Sarpy

Washington

Panhandle Sandhills

Northeast

OmahaConsortium

SoutheastMid Plains Central

Sioux Sheridan

Dawes

Box Butte

Lincoln MSA

NDOL Projections Regions

Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Office of Labor Market Information. 2020.* The Omaha Consortium refers to all areas of the Census-designated Omaha MSA that are located within the state of Nebraska, and excluding those that lie across the border in Iowa.

MARCH 2020

8

Industry projections are classified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The lowest level of detail at which Nebraska produces industry projections is the subsector level, represented by three-digit NAICS codes. Data are produced for a total of 93 NAICS subsectors for all nine regions as well as statewide, and for both the long-term and short-term time frames.

48-49: Transportation& Warehousing

481: AirTransportation

482: RailTransportation

483: WaterTransportation

484: TruckTransportation

485: Transit &Ground PassengerTransportation

486: PipelineTransportation

487: Scenic &SightseeingTransportation

491: PostalService

492: Couriers& Messengers

493: Warehousing& Storage

4851: Urban TransitSystems

4853: Taxi & LimousineService 48531: Taxi Service

48532: Limousine Service

After Subsector, NAICS further categorizesestablishments by Industry Group (4 digits),then Industry (5 digits).

However, NDOL’s industry projections drill down to the Subsector level only.

Example of North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Coding Structure

Source: Executive Office of the President & U.S. Office of Management and Budget. North American Industry Classification System Manual: United States. 2017.

27-2030: Dancers & Choreographers

27-2040: Musicians, Singers, & Related

27-0000: Arts, Design, Sports, & Media

27-2021: Athletes & Sports Competitors

27-2022: Coaches & Scouts

27-2023: Umpires, Referees, & Other Sports Officials

27-2031: Dancers

27-2032: Choreographers

27-2042: Musicians & Singers

27-2041: Music Directors & Composers

27-2012: Producers & Directors

27-2011: Actors

27-1021: Commercial & Industrial Designers

27-1022: Fashion Designers

27-1023: Floral Designers

27-1024: Graphic Designers

27-1025: Interior Designers

27-1011: Art Directors

27-1012: Craft Artists

27-1013: Fine Artists

27-2010: Actors, Producers, & Directors

27-2020: Athletes, Coaches,Umpires, & Related

27-2000: Entertainers & Performers,Sports & Related

27-1000: Art & Design

27-1010: Artists & Related 27-1020: Designers

Major GroupMinor Group

BroadOccupation

DetailedOccupation

Example of Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Coding Structure

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Office of Management and Budget, & the Standard Occupational Classification Policy Committee. 2018 SOC User Guide: Standard Occupational Classification and Coding Structure. January 2018. Note: NAICS and SOC structure graphics depict incomplete slices of each hierarchy for illustrative purposes, and do not encompass all industries/occupations that may fall within any given category.

Occupational projections are classified by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. The lowest level of detail Nebraska publishes is at the six-digit, or ‘detailed occupation’ level. Detailed occupations are then sorted into 98 ‘minor groups,’ which together add up to 23 ‘major groups.’ Nebraska produces projections for 22 of these major occupational groups; projec-tions for military-specific occupations are omitted. The total number of six-digit detailed occupations for which Nebraska pub-lishes projections varies for each region; the 2016-2026 statewide projections publication included 790 detailed occupations.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 9

MARCH 2020

The projections process starts in the fall of each year with short-term industry projections. These projections are developed by combining employment time series data with current economic indicators. Past trends are examined and knowledge of ongoing dynamics in the local economy are combined to develop a picture of industry conditions that are likely to be observed in the near future.

The first step of the process is gathering new monthly employment data for each area to build onto a historical data set going back to 1990. After these data are compiled, they are reviewed for any abnormalities, and anything appearing unusual is researched and corrected if necessary.

Most of the data used to produce projections comes from information reported to NDOL by employers for the purpose of collecting unemployment insurance tax. Most private employers statewide are required to report their employment data, but there are some exceptions. Examples of employers exempt from the reporting requirement include those engaged in agriculture; railroads; some insurance carriers; education providers; hospitals; and religious, grant-making, civic, professional, and similar organizations. LMI analysts then use a variety of sources to find these missing employment details, and com-bine their findings with reported employment figures to get a more complete picture of the Nebraska economy.

Next, numerous economic indicators are factored into the calculations. Examples of economic indicators analysts consider include the number of monthly unemployment insurance claims, statistics on median household income, population data, the average weekly number of hours worked in manufacturing firms, the consumer price index, the number of building per-mits issued for new home construction, and agricultural statistics on production volume and prices received by producers.

After all the necessary data are gathered, cleaned, checked, and verified, specialized software is used to calculate the final projections. This software was developed by the federal government for the purpose of creating employment projections at the state level. The program uses a variety of statistical models to analyze past data to make projections about the future. An LMI analyst then examines each of these models to determine which one is most appropriate for the industry of focus. The analyst also uses information about the area’s local economy, such as business openings, expansions, closings, and layoffs, to arrive at a final projection.

Through this months-long process, two key numbers for each industry and regional area emerge. First, the ‘base employ-ment number’ is the average of the last three months of data from the employment totals time series. The ‘projected num-ber’ is the future employment level projected by the analyst, which represents the average of the last three months of the time period being projected. To avoid distortion due to seasonality, this will always be the same quarter of the year as was used to calculate the base number.

Using these two numbers, the net and percentage change in employment over the two-year time frame are determined for each industry. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is also calculated. The CAGR is the projected rate of increase com-pounded over several years. This is used to smooth out any year-to-year fluctuations and makes changes over a period of time easier to visualize.

Finally, the projections are sent to other LMI analysts for review, and any necessary adjustments are incorporated. The short-term industry projections numbers are then ready to be published and used as an input for the occupational projections.

The process involved in producing long-term industry projections is very similar, but occurs only in even-numbered years. During years where long-term industry projections are to be released, work on these numbers begins in March, immediately after the short-term projections are completed, and runs throughout the spring and into June. Luckily for the analyst, the time series data that took months to compile, clean, and verify for the short-term projections are used as inputs in the long-term projections, as well. Most of the same economic indicators can also be used for the long-term projections.

Projections by Industry

10

However, some of the economic models used for the long-term projections are different from those used in the short-term projections process, and require different inputs. One main input is the national projections data set, produced by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the fall of the previous year.

After the industry projections are finalized, they are used as inputs into the process of calculating short- and long-term occu-pational projections. This process is the same for both the short-term and the long-term time periods, and occurs in Febru-ary and June after the corresponding industry projections are completed.

Occupational projections are produced by combining industry projections with staffing patterns from NDOL’s Occupational Employment Statistics program (OES), as well as data from the federal BLS employment projections program. Staffing pat-terns provide ratios showing how employment in various occupations is distributed throughout industries. These are applied to the industry projections to distribute the base year and projected employment numbers to the occupations.

One of the national inputs from BLS are known as ‘change factors.’ These are a numeric representation of how an occu-pation’s employment share is changing within a particular industry. For example, an occupation may be making up 10% of employment within an industry in the base year. The change factor tells us if we think this share will be less, the same, or greater than 10% in the future, and adjusts the staffing patterns data accordingly.

After the analyst reviews each input to ensure they appear reasonable, and performs any necessary adjustments, the inputs are combined into the projections software, which completes the proper calculations on the data. These calculations pro-duce the base year and projected year numbers for each occupation, which are then used to calculate the numeric change and percent change.

The occupational projections also produce data on total openings expected to occur within the projections time period. Openings are opportunities for individ-uals to enter the occupation. (4) They can occur from growth in the occupation (numeric change), but they are also created when people employed in the occupa-tion leave a job and need to be replaced. These types of openings are referred to as ‘separations,’ and are classified as ‘labor force exits’ or ‘occupational transfers.’

Labor force exits represent individuals leaving an occupation and exiting the labor force entirely. (4) Most of these are due to individuals leaving a position in order to retire, but labor force exits can occur at any age, and are not nec-essarily permanent exits from the workforce, but rather just from the occupa-tion. For example, imagine an individual leaves the labor force to go to college full-time, with the intention of returning to work after she finishes her degree, but she does not plan to return to the occupation she left before she enrolled in school. For projections purposes, such an individual would be considered a labor force exit.

Occupational transfers represent individuals who leave an occupation and transfer into a different occupation. (4) This does not include an individual leaving an occupation at one company to work in the same occupation at a different company. They must leave one occupation for a different one in order to be counted as an occupational transfer.

The number of total openings is the sum of the number of openings from growth, labor force exits, and occupational trans-fers combined. NDOL’s occupational projections include these numbers in addition to the overall number of annual openings.

Projections by Occupation

TABLE OF CONTENTS 11

Each occupation is also assigned a level of education, work experience, and job training typically required to obtain a position, which is determined at the national level by BLS and provided to the states for inclusion in their projections publications. (4)

The education level represents the amount of formal educational attainment typically required for entry into the occupation. (4) It is broken down into eight levels, ranging from ‘no formal educational credential’ to a professional or doctoral degree. Work experience refers to the amount of prior experience in a related occupation that is typically required as a prerequisite for this occupation. Most occupations that have significant work experience requirements are supervisory or management roles, where workers typically gain knowledge and experience in lower-level occupations, and work their way up with expe-rience. The job training category represents typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation, and includes things such as apprenticeships, internships, and residencies.

Nebraska also uses information on education and training requirements when calculating the high skill component of H3. (2) Projections by education level are also published, and included in the projections files in the Data Download Center on NEworks.

The Final WordThe detailed process of calculating employment projections ensures that NDOL’s future employment forecasts are based on the most accurate and up-to-date data possible. New projections data has just been released for the 2019-2021 short-term projections period, and 2018-2028 long-term projections will be released July 7, 2020. Projections data can be found at NEworks.nebraska.gov in the Data Download Center, and on the Projections Central website and the NEworks Data Down-load Center, and will be integrated into other reports available on NEworks shortly thereafter.

Sources:1. Nebraska Department of Labor. Labor Market Information. Data Request Database. 2019.2. h3.ne.gov. High Wage, Skill, Demand (H3) Occupations Methodology. [Online] July 2019. http://h3.ne.gov/pdf/High%20Wage%20Skill%20Demand%20Methodology.pdf.3. United States Department of Labor. Employment and Training Administration. Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 05-19. [Online] October 10, 2019. https://wdr.doleta.gov/

directives/corr_doc.cfm?docn=3198.4. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Projections. Occupational Data Definitions. [Online] https://www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/nem-definitions.htm.

MARCH 2020

12

Total area of the original Nebraska Territory, acquired by the United States as a part of the Louisiana Purchase in 1803. At less than three cents per acre, the land that would eventually become the state of Nebraska (as well as parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming) cost America just under $6.75 million. (1)

351,558 square miles

2,732Number of residents counted in the first Nebraska census in 1854. (2)

61Number of libraries operating in the Nebraska Territory in 1860. (3) As of 2018, the state had 272 public libraries; employing about 2,000 librarians, library techs, and other workers; and nearly 7 million books, periodicals, and other materials in circulation. (2; 4; 5)

March 1, 1867Date that Nebraska attained statehood, making it the 37th American state. (2)

Fast FactsRachel Stevens, Research Analyst

$165.49Average annual wage earned by the 2,866 schoolteachers working in Nebraska in 1880. (3) In the third quarter of 2019, Nebraska’s 24,670 K-12 teachers averaged between $59,188 (for elementary school teachers, excluding special education) and $64,982 (for middle school career/technical education teachers). (4)

6.9%Percentage of Nebraska’s workforce made up of women in 1880. (3) During the second quarter of 2019, women accounted for 50.1% of employed individuals statewide. (6)

Male Female

142,159

10,455

1880

478,890481,430

2019

Composition of NE Workforce by Sex, 1880 & 2019

Sources: IPUMS National Historical Geographic Information System (version 14) & U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, QWI Explorer App.

Then vs. Now – Nebraska Over Time

TABLE OF CONTENTS 13

MARCH 2020

57,532Number of people age 60 and older living in Nebraska in 1900. This age group made up just 5.4% of the state’s population in that year. (3) By 2018, Nebraska’s 60+ population had expanded to 423,109 individuals, or 21.9% of total population statewide. (7)

1,868.6%Population increase in Sarpy County from 1920 to 2018. Sarpy was Nebraska’s fastest-growing county during this nearly 100-year period. As of 2018 estimates, Sarpy was Nebraska’s #3 largest county by population; in 1920, it ranked #55. (8; 9)

Ages 0 - 4 Ages 5 - 9 Ages 10 - 14 Ages 15 - 19 Ages 20 - 29

Ages 30 - 39 Ages 40 - 49 Ages 50 - 59 Ages 60 - 69 Ages 70+

200,000

600,000

0

400,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1900 1940 1960 2000 2018

7.9%

8.2%

9.0%

9.5%

15.8%

14.0%

12.9%

10.7%

7.0%4.9%

1.8%

6.5%9.9%

13.4%

17.8%

10.3%

11.4%

12.4%

13.0%

3.6%

11.4%

10.4%

9.1%

7.1%

11.7%

12.4%

11.5%

10.2%

8.7%7.5%

6.6%

7.0%

7.3%

7.7%

16.1%

13.7%

14.6%

10.3%

7.0%

9.8%

6.8%

6.7%

7.1%

6.9%

13.5%

13.5%

11.6%

12.0%

11.4%

10.5%

NE Population by Age Group, 1900 – 2018

Sources: IPUMS National Historical Geographic Information System (version 14) & U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.

1Nebraska is the nation’s first and only state to have a unicameral legislature, which it implemented in 1937. In its first year, the newly established Nebraska Unicameral passed 22 more bills in 12 fewer working days than during the previous bicameral session, and cut legislative costs nearly in half. Today, each of the 49 senators in the Nebraska Unicameral have 90 working days in odd-numbered years and 60 in even-numbered years, and receive an annual salary of $12,000. (10)

1949Year that Nebraska’s first television stations, KMTV and WOW-TV in Omaha, began broadcasting. The state is now home to 26 commercial and noncommercial TV stations, with 1,450 workers employed in its radio and television broadcasting industry group as of the second quarter of 2019. (2; 6)37.4%

Percentage of working Nebraskans who were employed in the state’s agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting sector in 1940. (3) In 2018, just 1.5% of the employed population worked in this field—a 96.1% drop. (6)

14

1. Encyclopedia Britannica . "Nebraska" & "Louisiana Purchase". [Online] January 2020. [Cited: February 27, 2020.] www.britannica.com.2. Nebraska Legislature. Nebraska Blue Book (54th Ed.). [Online] 2018-2019. [Cited: February 26, 2020.] https://nebraskalegislature.gov/pdf/bluebook/bluebook_2018.pdf.3. IPUMS NHGIS. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 14.0 [Database]. [Online] University of Minnesota. [Cited: February 26, 2020.] www.nhgis.org.4. Nebraska Department of Labor. Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program. Employment & Wage Estimates. [Online] Third Quarter 2019. [Cited: May 5, 2019.] neworks.

nebraska.gov.5. Nebraska Library Commission. Nebraska Public Library Statistical Survey - 2017-2018 Summary. [Online] [Cited: February 27, 2020.] http://nlc.nebraska.gov/stats/

Downloads/20172018stats/FY2018SummaryDashboard.pdf.6. U.S. Census Bureau. Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI Explorer Application). Emp (Beginning of Quarter Employment: Counts). [Online] [Cited: February 28, 2020.] https://

qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/static/explore.html#x=0&g=0.7. American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates 2013-2018. Table S0101. [Online] [Cited: February 11, 2020.] data.census.gov.8. Population of States and Counties of the United States: 1790 to 1990. [Online] [Cited: February 24, 2020.] https://www.census.gov/population/www/censusdata/pop1790-1990.

html.9. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018. 2018 Population Estimates: Table ID PEPANNRES. [Online] [Cited: February 26, 2020.] American

FactFinder.10. Nebraska Legislature. Inside Our Nation's Only Unicameral. [Online] 2020. [Cited: March 5, 2020.] https://nebraskalegislature.gov/pdf/about/lookbook.pdf.11. U.S. Census Bureau. 1980 Census of Population. Detailed Population Characteristics: Nebraska. [Online] [Cited: March 3, 2020.] https://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/

documents/1980/1980censusofpopu80129unse_bw.pdf.12. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI Inflation Calculator. December 1979 - January 2020. [Online] [Cited: March 5, 2020.] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm.13. Nebraska Department of Labor. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). [Online] Q3 2019. [Cited: March 5, 2020.] NEworks.nebraska.gov.14. U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census of Population and Housing. Nebraska: Summary Social, Economic, and Housing Characteristics. [Online] March 2003. [Cited: March 5, 2020.]

https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/phc-2-29.pdf.15. American Community Survey, One-Year Estimates 2018. Tables S1501 & S2801. [Online] [Cited: March 5, 2020.] data.census.gov.16. Current Population Survey. Table 1B. [Online] October 2003. [Cited: March 5, 2020.] https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2003/demo/computer-internet/p23-208.html.

$14,206Average annual earnings for a man age 15 or older working in Nebraska in 1979, which would have been the equivalent of about $47,780 in inflation-adjusted January 2020 dollars. A woman age 15 or above would have received an average of $6,252, or about $21,028 today. (11; 12) As of the third quarter of 2019, Nebraska workers brought home an average annual wage of $47,216, regardless of gender. (13)

23.7%Percentage of Nebraskans ages 25 and older who held a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2000. (14) In 2018, this had grown to 32.4%. (15) The state’s high school graduation rate also rose from 86.6% to 91.4% during this time period.

55.8%Share of Nebraska households that had an internet connection in their home in 2003. (16) By 2018, internet connectivity had spread to 86.2% of households statewide. (15)

Sources:

TABLE OF CONTENTS 15

MARCH 2020

Initial Unemployment Claims

Monthly Avg. Number of Claims per Week

Avg. Weekly EarningsAll Private Employees

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Gas Prices Avg. Retail Price per Gallon

(Regular-Grade Unleaded Gasoline)

An initial claim is a request for determination of UI program eligibility filed by an unemployed individual following a separation from an employer. It can serve as an indicator of emerging labor market conditions in the area.1

Average weekly earnings represents the mean pay received by workers for services performed over the course of one week.2

This figure represents the average price consumers paid at the pump for a gallon of regular-grade, unleaded gasoline during the specified timeframe. The main components affecting the retail price of gasoline are crude oil prices; costs and profits associated with refining, distribution, and market-ing; fluctuations in supply and demand; and federal, state, and local taxes.3

Data Sources: [Retrieved: January 2020.]NE- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. State and Area Employment, Hours, & Earnings. Average Weekly Earnings of All Employees, In Dollars. Nebraska (Statewide): Total Private, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Series ID SMU31000000500000011. https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/sm.U.S.- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment, Hours, & Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics Survey (National). Average Weekly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Series ID CES0500000011. https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/ce.

Data Sources: [Retrieved: January 2020.]NE- U.S. Employment & Training Administration. Initial Claims in Nebraska (NEICLAIMS). Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEICLAIMS.U.S.- U.S. Employment & Training Administration. Initial Claims (ICNSA). Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICNSA.

Data Sources: [Retrieved: January 2020.]NE- Nebraska Energy Office. Average Monthly Retail Motor Gasoline Prices in Nebraska. Regular Unleaded.http://www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml/97.htm#regular_unleaded.U.S.- U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices.https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_GND_A_EPMR_PTE_DPGAL_M.htm.

$968.86United StatesCurrent 2020

$894.62NE 10-Year High(Dec. 2019)

$682.19NE 10-Year Low (Dec. 2009)

$894.62Nebraska

Current 2020

UP +4.3%

NE Vs. Last Year

UP +1.6%NE Vs.

Last Month

$3.93NE 10-Year High (May 2011)

$2.55United States Current 2020

$2.42Nebraska

Current 2020

UP +16.9%

NE Vs. Last Year

FLAT 0.0%NE Vs.

Last Month

2,941 NE 10-Year High (Jan. 2011)

430NE 10-Year Low (Sept. 2019)

3,500 $1,200

$6000

1,055Nebraska

Current 2020

DOWN -12.5%

NE Vs. Last Year

DOWN -19.9%

NE Vs. Last Month

1,340NE 10-Year Avg.

$763.29NE 10-Year

Avg.

$0

$5.00

$2.87NE 10-Year

Avg.

$1.68NE 10-Year Low (Feb. 2016)

Economic Indicators Kermit Spade, Research Analyst

16

Data Sources: [Retrieved: January 2020.]NE- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in Midwest(CUUR0200SA0). Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0200SA0#0.U.S.- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items(CPIAUCNS). Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS.

Labor Force Participation Rate

Seasonally Adjusted

The labor force is comprised of all persons age 16 and over in the civilian, noninstitu-tional population who are either employed or unemployed but available for work and actively seeking employment. It excludes people doing unpaid homemaking or volunteer work, retired people, and people who are not employed and not actively seeking work. The labor force participation rate measures the labor force as a percentage of the total civilian, noninstitutional population, age 16 and over.1

Consumer Price Index12-Month % Change

Not Seasonally Adjusted

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is used to determine the real purchasing power of con-sumers’ dollars, and as a measure of inflation.6

Housing Prices4-Quarter % ChangeSeasonally Adjusted

The housing price index (HPI) measures the movement of single-family house prices, based on purchases involving conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. “Four-quarter” change is relative to the same quarter one year earlier. HPI data are often considered useful for estimating housing affordability and projecting future changes in mortgage default rates.5

Data Sources: [Retrieved: January 2020.]NE- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Participation Rate for Nebraska (LBSSA31). Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LBSSA3.U.S.- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART). Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART.

Data Source: [Retrieved: January 2020.]Federal Housing Finance Agency. Housing Price Index Datasets. Quarterly Data: Purchase-Only Indexes.https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index-Datasets.aspx#qpo

UP +1.4%NE Vs.

Last Year

FLAT 0.0%

NE Vs. Last Month

+3.9%Midwest 10-Year High (Sept. 2011)

-1.1%Midwest 10-Year Low (Apr. 2015)

+2.5%Midwest Region

Current 2020

+8.6%NE 10-Year High (Q1 2018)

+4.9%U.S. Current

Q1 2020

-3.2%NE 10-Year Low (Q4 2010)

+6.0%Nebraska Q1 2020

69.1%NE 10-Year Low (Mar. 2017)

63.4%United States Current 2020

70.1%Nebraska

Current 2020

All Urban Consumers: All Items Index 1982–1984 = 100

FHFA Purchase-Only Housing Price Index

50% -2.5% -10%

10%5.0%80%

70.5%NE 10-Year

Avg.+2.5%United States Current 2020

Economic Indicators Kermit Spade, Research Analyst

+1.6%Midwest Region 10-Year Avg.

3.6%NE 10-Year Avg.

72.3%NE 10-Year High (Dec. 2009)

Nebraska Workforce Trends is published by the Nebraska Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Equal Opportunity Employer/Program. TDD: 1.800.833.7352Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

Nebraska Department of LaborLabor Market Information

PHONE 800-876-1377EMAIL lmi_ne@nebraska.gov

Employers, if you’re planning to hire an individual who was impacted by a layoff,

and you’re willing to provide training on the job, you may be eligible for a 50–75% wage

reimbursement up to $10,000.

On-the-Job Training (OJT) Program

To learn more about OJT’s…

Contact one of our job centers to speak to a workforce coordinator or email

NDOL.EconomicTransition@nebraska.gov

Office listing at: dol.nebraska.gov/home/AboutUs

Cover photo 6 from https://www.flickr.com/photos/thenationalguard/46216690094/in/photostream/ posted by the Nebraska National Guard Historical Society