Neal Fann

U.S. EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Air Benefits and Cost Group

•What is the BenMAP model and what questions can it answer?

•How does EPA estimate human health benefits of Air rules?

•What is the scientific foundation underlying the model?

•On what projects has BenMAP been used?

•Model demonstration

•Next steps for BenMAP development

Overview

What Kinds of Questions Can BenMAP Answer?

•What are the benefits of modeled or monitored changes in ambient PM2.5, PM10 and Ozone?

•What would the benefits be of a hypothetical reduction in PM2.5, PM10 and Ozone?

• “What if Ozone levels were reduced by 20 percent in Texas?” or

• “What is the impact of just attaining a 50 ug/m3 daily PM2.5 standard?”

•What are the benefits of a modeled or hypothetical change in PM2.5, PM10 and Ozone in South Korea?

The Data BenMAP Uses to Perform a Benefits

Analysis

BenMAP Input

User Input Choice

Result from Inputs

US Census US Census DataData

US Census US Census DataData Population Population

EstimatesEstimatesPopulation Population EstimatesEstimates

PopulationPopulationProjectionsProjectionsPopulationPopulationProjectionsProjections

Population Population ExposureExposure

ProjectionsProjections

Population Population ExposureExposure

ProjectionsProjections

Adverse Adverse HealthHealthEffectsEffects

Adverse Adverse HealthHealthEffectsEffects

Economic Economic Benefits Benefits

Economic Economic Benefits Benefits

Air Air Quality Quality ModelinModelin

gg

Air Air Quality Quality ModelinModelin

gg

Air Air Quality Quality

MonitorinMonitoringg

Air Air Quality Quality

MonitorinMonitoringg

Health Health FunctionFunction

ss

Health Health FunctionFunction

ss

Baseline & Baseline & ProjectedProjectedIncidenceIncidence

RatesRates

Baseline & Baseline & ProjectedProjectedIncidenceIncidence

RatesRates

Valuation Valuation FunctionsFunctions

Valuation Valuation FunctionsFunctions

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Key Features of BenMAP

• User-friendly experience

• Driven by windows-based graphical user interface

• Enables users to perform a standardized or highly customized analysis

• Results (exposure, incidence, and valuation) available in a variety of formats including ASCII, .dbf, and shape files

• Comprehensiveness

• Model includes a substantial population, health and air quality databases

• Model incorporates an integrated GIS mapping, query, and statistics tool

• Flexibility

• Users can add their own population, air quality, and health databases

What Health Effects Does EPA Quantify?

Particulate Matter

Ozone

Current

Mortality Chronic bronchitis Nonfatal heart attacks Hospital admissions Asthma ER visits Acute respiratory

symptoms

Asthma attacks Work loss days Worker productivity School absence rates

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Peer Review of BenMAP

•BenMAP was peer-reviewed in Spring 2004.

• The peer-review report is available on the BenMAP website and is included with all distributed CD-ROMs.

• EPA’s peer-review guidance was followed to ensure an independent, expert review.

• Peer review overall was very supportive of BenMAP model

•Reviewers provided several comments we have now addressed

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Analytical Transparency• BenMAP designed for public use and public

scrutiny

• Published a detailed User’s Guide with extensive appendices documenting model algorithms and data sources

• With each run, the user can generate an “audit trail” listing details of the run for QA and comparison with other analyses

• Consistent with Data Quality Guidelines, this “audit trail” can and should be shared with reviewers

• Past Projects:

• Non-Road Diesel Rule

• Clean Air Interstate Rule

• PM2.5 NAAQS

• Small Spark Ignition Rule

• Locomotive and Marine Diesel Rule

• Ozone NAAQS

• Upcoming Projects:

• SO2 NAAQS

• NOx NAAQS

Use of BenMAP in EPA Analyses

• FAA aircraft analysis

•Oregon woodstove analysis

•New York City Department of Health borough-level analysis

•Georgia Department of Natural Resources SIP planning

• Philadelphia diesel PM2.5 benefits analysis

Other BenMAP Projects

1111

GeorgiaMarmur; Bell

SantiagoBell et al.

Sao PauloBell et al.

Mexico CityBell et al.;Instituto

Nacional de Ecologia

SeoulPark & Bae;

Park

MumbaiOjha et al. MEXICO

Medio Ambiente;Envir. Reporters

CUBACarbonell et al.

UNITED STATESChestnut & Mills;

Hubbell et al.

BenMAP Applications Around the World

NESCAUMKleiman et al.

RTPTraining

CHINAIES; JES

TokyoJapan EPA

YogyakartaBAQ 2006

INDIATraining

TAIWANTraining

PerthCurtin U.

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Bell - impacts of ozone exposure in Northern Georgia Bell et al. - health consequences of modest changes in fossil

fuel use Carbonell et al. - health impacts due to high sulfur fuels at

power plants Chestnut and Mills - benefits of US acid rain program Hubbell et al. - NAAQS benefits IES - air quality and GHG environment, health and economic co-

benefits Instituto Nacionale - benefits of a bus rapid transit system JES - benefits of reducing SO2 emissions from power sector Marmur - benefits of Georgia SIPs for ozone and PM2.5 Medio Ambiente - benefits of reducing sulfur content in fuel Mumbai - action plans for 18 Indian cities NESCAUM - benefits of air quality and climate policies; ozone

standards and public health Park & Bae; Park - Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

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Model Demonstration

• The new one-step analysis tool

• The GIS tool

•Reports