7/31/2019 NE-Sen Hickman Analytics for Bob Kerrey (Oct. 2012)

1/2

7/31/2019 NE-Sen Hickman Analytics for Bob Kerrey (Oct. 2012)

2/2

ai

Hickman Analytics, Inc Page2

Second, most robo-polls make no adjustment for the geographic location of the respondents and

significantly over-represent rural voters. This makes a difference in the horserace since Kerrey, like most

Democrats, does better in urban areas in eastern Nebraska, and the most prominent knowledge of

Fischer is her background as a rancher. Third, robo-polls over-represent older voters which also lead

them to underestimate Kerreys support.

In short, our research shows that the Nebraska Senate race is close and far from being decided, with Bob

Kerrey showing clear separation from the Presidential campaign and putting together the coalitions that

have allowed Democrats to win even in Presidential years and off-years with very unfavorable political

climates. Moreover, Fischers lead is weak and she is vulnerable to unfavorable information such as

that which has just begun to be communicated about her.

Technical note: This memo is based on a sample of 600 likely 2012 general election voters in Nebraska.

Telephone interviewing was conducted October 14th 16

h, 2012. The sample was selected so all likely voters in

Nebraska were equally likely to be contacted, and included both landline and cell phone numbers. The results were

adjusted slightly to align the sample with known facts about the demographic composition of the state. All polls are

subject to errors associated with interviewing a sample rather than the entire universe. The estimation associated

with a sample of 600 is +/-4.0 percentage points. In other words, these results are within 4.0 points of the results,

plus or minus, that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population of likely voters in Nebraska. The

estimation errors associated with subgroups are higher.