Regional primary energy consumption patterns 2007

coal hydro

nuclear

gas

oil

From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Oil consumption per capita

From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Oil consumption per capita

•  2007: Demand grows to 7.6 million bbls/day

•  2006: China accounts for 35-40% of world demand growth over past 5 years

•  2025: Demand expected to reach 14.2 million bbls/day, (10.9 million bbl/day imports)

World Oil Consumption: 2003 & 2030

Chart from US Dept of Energy EIA: International Energy Outlook 2006, Figure 27

Distribution of proven oil reserves in billion barrels

1987: 910.2 1997: 1069.3 2007: 1237.9 From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Angola joined OPEC in December 2006

Ecuador and Gabon left the OPEC cartel in the 1990s

Indonesia became a net importer in 2004

Blue designates members of OPEC Brown designates oil producer (non-OPEC)

Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2007

China: 3.8

Russia: 9.7

Kazakhstan: 1.4

Nigeria: 2.4

Angola: 1.4

Libya: 1.8

Norway: 2.8

Saudi Arabia: 10.7

Iran: 4.1

Iraq: 2.0

Algeria: 2.1

Kuwait 2.7

UAE: 2.9 Indonesia: 1.1

Qatar: 1.1

2006 Oil Producers (mil bbl/day)

UK: 1.7

Mexico: 3.7

Canada: 3.3

United States: 8.4

Venezuela: 2.8

2006 Oil Producers Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2007

Brazil: 2.2

Swing Capacity

Bab el-Mandab 3.0 Bosporus/Turkish Straits 3.1 Strait of Hormuz: 17

Strait of Malacca 11.7Russia 2.0Suez Canal/Sumed: 4.2Panama Canal: 0.6

7

2

3

4567

5

6

1

1

2 3

4

Oil Chokepoints (Millions of Barrels per Day)

DatafromUSDeptofEnergyEIA2005(2004estimates)

Tanker Traffic •  Oct 2002: French

supertanker attacked off coast of Yemen.

•  June 2002: Moroccan government arrested al-Qaeda operatives suspected of plotting tanker raids in the Strait of Gibraltar.

•  Maritime insurance tripled in Yemeni waters. Typical supertanker costs $450,000/trip for ship only.

•  4,000 tankers in use. •  Typical supertanker has

2 million bbl capacity. •  Key Straits could be

blocked by one burning supertanker/ oil slick.

DatafromtheInstitutefortheAnalysisofGlobalSecurity

Photo by Gavin Helf

Canada’s Oil

Thomas Friedman’s First Law of Petropolitics

From Foreign Policy May/June 2006

Russia

Image from Norilsk Nickel magazine

Data from EIA 2007

Where are the Hydrocarbons?

From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

European Reliance on Russian Natural Gas (2007)

1 Germany (1,378 bcf) 36%

2 Turkey (827 bcf) 64%

3 Italy (742 bcf) 25% 4 France (346 bcf) 20% 5 Czech Rep (247 bcf) 79% 6 Poland (247 bcf) 47%

7 Hungary (226 bcf) 54% 8 Slovakia (223 bcf) 100%

Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2008

Russian Oil and Gas Pipelines to Europe: Actual & Proposed

Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2008

Russian Nord Stream Natural Gas Pipeline Facts

Route: Portovaya Bay, Russia to coast Germany (underwater) – Baltic Sea

Capacity: 27.5 billion cubic meters (2010); 55 bcm (2012 – 2nd pipeline)

Length: 1,200 km (World’s largest underwater natural gas pipeline – max depth: 210 meters)

Cost Estimate: 5 Billion Euros (60% Increase – 8 Billion Euros) – Cost 2.2 Billion Euros if built on land

Supply: Shtokman gas field (estimated reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic meters – 2010 available)

Shareholders: Gazprom (51%), BASF (24.5%), E.ON (24.5%)

Contracts: Wingas – German Gas Co. – 9 bcm for 25 yrs DONG – Danish Co. – 1 bcm for 20 yrs E.ON – German Co. – 4 bcm Gaz de France – 2.5 bcm

Slide courtesy of Nelson Dodd, NWC Elective 5404

Canada’s Oil

Questions?

Coal production – Coal consumption

From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Nuclear energy consumption by area

From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Canada’s Oil

EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001; "Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of ANWR,“

- EIA Reserves & Production Division

TotalOilDemand

TransportationDemand

DomesticOilProduction

DomesticOilProductionw/ANWR

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5

10

15

20

25

30

Components of Gasoline Prices

US Dept of Energy EIA: May 2006