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NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

32nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction WorkshopOctober 22, 2007

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Overview

• Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

• Ongoing Strategic Priorities• Challenges• Building Update

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Satellites99.9%

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFS

1.7B Obs/Day

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

MOM3

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal

• Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004• Climate Test Bed: established in 2005and focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products• Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks: (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB activities (e.g. consolidation tool)

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Ongoing Strategic Priorities

• Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the R2O & “O2R” paradigm

• Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process

• Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise

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“Operations to Research (O2R)”

• Goal– To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by

providing the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the broad research community

• Deliverables– CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community

– Annual workshop on CFS

• Mechanism– Managed operational program between NCEP, Climate Program Office

(CPO), and Climate Test Bed (CTB)

• Benefits– Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc)

– Maximizes opportunities for community participation

To Accelerate R2O; Must Support “O2R”

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“Operations to Research (O2R)”

• NCEP will provide• Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis)• Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services • Points of contact for collaboration• Support for CTB Seminar Series

• CPO will provide• Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services • Grants Program (AOs)

• CTB will provide• Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O) • Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB)

• GAPS• Computing support for dissemination of models and data• Resources for competitive transition activities

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Challenges with Multi-Model (MME) System

• Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient (US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets

• Lack of a concept of operations– MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of

operational models and real time forecast data

• CTB resource limitations– Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other

organizations

– Skill assessments

– Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

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• 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• 40 spaces for visiting scientists

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Predictionat the UMD Research Park (M-Square)

Date

Construction Start May 9, 2007

Move Start Dec 2008

Move Complete July 2009

Construction Schedule

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Recent Activities

Construction photographs – October 2, 2007

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NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

located at

University of MDM2 Research Park

NORTH

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Summary

• CFS and CTB advancing nicely

• NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater support for O2R. (Research and transition activities need to build off the operational infrastructure.)

• New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction should help facilitate

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Appendix

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EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBDTCJHT

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other AgenciesUniversities

International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

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NCEP

R2O

1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs…

2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O).

Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer

feedback; Bring in customer requests

4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A).

5. Delivery of products to the

diverse community and customer

feedback

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition ProcessApplying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

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NCEPis uniquelypositioned

to provide an operational

infra-structure for

the transition processes

User Community

R&D Community

OPERATIONS

1

3

EMCCFS

5

4

O2A

CTB

CPC

CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

O2R

R2O