Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 1/14

NCEP Coordinated Ocean ModelingCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013

Hendrik L. Tolman and Avichal Mehra

Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.govAvichal.Mehra@NOAA.gov

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 2/14

NOAA - Navy

Commonalities Need of eddy-resolving global model capabilities,

particularly at weather time scales.. Joint development work.

Differences: Mission

Public versus internal. Weather-interactions etc. versus acoustics etc.

Other collaboration: NOAA as portal for Navy data. Potential for mutual backup (not set up formally yet). Leveraging of development (HYCOM – NOPP – ESPC).

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 3/14

Navy - NOAA

HYCOM (RTOFS at NOAA and GOFS at Navy) used at OPC, NHC and WFOs for marine services. Used by NOS for boundary data.

NOAA will have to transition to GOFS 3.1. HYCOM in RTOFS at NOAA.

Forecast model operational at NCEP since. Signed MOU on transitioning NCODA to NCEP. NCEP presently relying on Navy NCODA results.

Need to transition to GOFS 3.1 with different number of vertical levels.

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 4/14

NCEP Oceans

Five major efforts: Eddy resolving ocean modeling. Eddy resolving ocean initialization.

Coupled modeling for hurricanes.

Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS.

Episodic tracers (with shelf life)

All RTOFS models based on the community HYCOM model, NCEP and Navy are part of the HYCOM consortium.

RTOFS-GlobalRTOFS-AtlanticOperational 2005

Operational 10/25/2011

RTOFS-HWRFLive testing

RTOFS-NEMSUnder development

RTOFS-ET-PacOperational 07/24/2012

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 5/14

NCEP Oceans

Seasonal and inter annual effort: GODAS and MOM4 in present NCEP Climate Forecast

System (CFVv2).

This is a collaboration with NOAA / OAR / GFDL, and will not be discussed in detail here.

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 6/14

RTOFS-Global

Push to global model (vs. regional models): Satisfy requirements from NOAA SAB (2004). Provide BC for regional models (HWRF, NOS, IOOS).

Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP). GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle).

Timeline: Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVO (NCODA)

initialization (daily feed from NAVO). FY2012: Upgrade products, analyze forcing. FY2015: full initialization at NCEP.

Strong collaboration with Navy. Accelerated implementation by estimated 10 years,

using half the annual resources (HR) otherwise needed. Now with MOU on NCODA at NCEP.

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 7/14

RTOFS-Global

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 8/14

RTOFS-Global

EMC became US government lead on ocean plume modeling for Fukushima ocean contamination. Collaboration in large Interagency work group. Leveraging modeling from Navy, DTRA, NOS.

NCEP Navy model data distribution point. CONOPS to rapidly generate actionable information for

decision makers. Product 1: Surface particle tracing to identify potentially

contaminated areas. (April 6, 180 d) Product 2: Contamination estimates using particle

tracing + HYSPLIT atm. Deposits. (April 20, 180 d)

Product 3: Full dispersion model as passive decaying tracers, using direct release (NOS) and atm. deposit (NCEP) (In operations at NCO, shelf live)

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 9/14

RTOFS-Global

Enabling Fukushima response

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/plume

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/tracers

Discontinue Dec 31, 2013

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 10/14

RTOFS-HWRF

Ongoing experiments Real time parallel runs since 2009. Tentatively to operations in 2014: Navy collaboration through HFIP –

NOPP by building generic coupler for atmosphere – wave – ocean.

COAMPS-TC / HWRF SWAN – WAVEWATCH III –

UMWM NCOM – HYCOM (RTOFS)

TPC

TPC

JTWC / ITOP

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 11/14

RTOFS-NEMS

Working on 0.25 degree HYCOM for coupling to weather models (GFS, CFS).

Model setup and free runs successful. Climatological flux bias corrections successful. Loose collaboration on forcing with NRL-Stennis.

Climatological run, no flux correction

Same but with flux correction

Interannual run, 1993-2009

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 12/14

Wind waves

WAVEWATCH III model developed at NCEP, but now one of the leading community models. NRL-Stennis and NRL-Monterey actively involved in

development for several years. FNMOC operational for more than a decade. Joint development for hurricanes with FNMOC. NAVO transitioning from WAM to WAVEWATCH III.

NOPP project on next generation wave model physics with many partners:

NOAA / Navy (NRL-Stennis), USACE, BOEM. Teams from Australia, France, Netherlands, Canada and

US.

Other partners in development include MetOffice and BoM.

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 13/14

Wind waves

FY 2011Joint FNMOC –

NCEP wave ensemble.

NUOPC-NAEFS. Much improved

products on 00z and 12z cycles.

FY2014: Add members from

Environment Canada.

Tolman and Mehra COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 14/14