ncar sustainable technologies

NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

NCAR Sustainable TechnologiesNCAR Sustainable TechnologiesTools to Understand and Predict processes and changes in the Earth System

Dr. Tim Killeen, NCAR DirectorFebruary 28, 2007

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“I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.”

Walter Orr Roberts

The late Walter Orr Roberts was the founding director of NCAR


What is NCAR?The National Center for Atmospheric Research


NCAR: The National Center for Atmospheric Research

FAA$12.3

8%

DOD$11.1

7%

NASA$7.6 5%

UNIV$4.8 3%

NSF$81.4 55%

NSF-Spec$10.1

7%

NSF-HIAPER$9.5 6%

DOE$3.6 2%

OTHER$2.3 2%

NOAA$3.6 2%

COMM$1.8 1%

FOREIGN$2.4 2%

National Science Foundation funded Center, >1,000 Scientists and engineers, 47 year history

Earth System Sciences: Computational and Observational Science and facilities for Weather, Climate, Chemistry, Space Weather, Society-Environment Interactions

Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – January 2006

Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – January 2006

RANKING INSTITUTION CITATIONS

1 NASA 90,602

2 NOAA 72,249

33 NCARNCAR 55,53555,535

4University of Colorado

49,741

5University of Washington

48,733

6US Geological Survey

46,998

7Max Plank Society

43,825

8 CALTECH 43,360

9Columbia University

39,596

10

University of California,San Diego

34,722


Our Management & Our Sponsor

UCAR - The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research• NCAR’s manager

• A non-profit consortium of over 100 university members and affiliates founded in 1960 to enhance the capabilities of the universities and to focus on scientific problems that are beyond the scale of a single university

NSF - The National Science Foundation• NCAR’s primary sponsor

• An independent federal agency created by Congress in 1950 “to promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; to secure the national defense”


Understanding Earth SystemsUnderstanding & planning for natural and human-induced impacts on our planet


Recent Contribution to Climate Change Knowledge

NCAR’s role - to constantly improve our understanding of the Earth System, to benefit society

2007 IPCC’s 4th Assessment report

• Established by WMO & UNEP to assess scientific and technical and socio- economic information relevant for understanding climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation.

• Used by governments world-wide for planning

NCAR scientists served as coordinating lead authors & contributing authors

NCAR developed one of the major predictive models used in the IPCC

IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers:

Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale features, continuing currently observed trends:

• warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least over Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean)

• snow cover will contract

• widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions

• sea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late summer sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st century

• very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent

• likely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense

• extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward

• precipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions

• Very likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is 25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century.

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized

Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale features, continuing currently observed trends:

• warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least over Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean)

• snow cover will contract

• widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions

• sea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late summer sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st century

• very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent

• likely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense

• extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward

• precipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions

• Very likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is 25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century.

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized


IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

Model results confirm the importance of human-produced emissions in the temperature trends of recent decades.


Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

150 0.0450.012100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026 25 0.1770.052

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20

06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20

00

Period Rate

Years /decade


Human Well-being

Human well-being rests on a foundation of three pillars, the preservation & enhancement of all 3 of which constitute the core responsibilities of society:

1. economic conditions and processes such as employment, income, wealth, markets, trade, productive technologies…

2. sociopolitical conditions and processes such as law & order, national & homeland security, governance, justice, education, health care, science, culture & the arts, liberty, privacy…

3. environmental conditions and processes such as air, water, soils, mineral resources, the biota, nutrient cycles, climatic processes…

slide credit: John Holdren


Economic Well-being

U.S. disaster costs are increasing Individual events can inflict staggering human suffering and

dollar losses totaling tens of billions Property destruction and business disruption due to natural

disasters now rival warfare in terms of loss. Based on recent experience, 85% of natural disasters will

be weather or climate related (the other 15% will be geophysical.)

Events like these will lead to increasingly severe economic, social, and political consequences—at the local, state, and federal levels

Losses of life and economic health can be mitigated by prediction, preparation, and planning for adaptation

NCAR research, and its resulting products, are assisting decision-makers to do just that


Sustainability: The World is Taking Notice

United Nations Millennium Goals (2015)

People, from environmental to religious groups, are asking…

“What can we do?”--- and taking action! QuickTime™ and a

TIFF (LZW) decompressorare needed to see this picture.


U.S. Corporations, Cities & States are signing on to Sustainability Initiatives


How will we plan, react, & adapt to a changing environment

NCAR Research Products


Examples of NCAR Products Enhancing Safe, Prosperous & Sustainable Living

Existing Tools• CLIMATE: CCSM (Community Climate Systems Model)

Planning for the impacts of climate change

• WEATHER: WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting Model) Predicting severe weather events to minimize costly devastation to human life and business assets

• BIOHAZARDS: Pentagon-ShieldProtecting the U.S. Government from Biohazards & Terrorism

• SOLAR MEASUREMENT: Measuring Coronal Magnetic Fields Toward improving solar prediction

• ROAD SAFETY: Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Providing safe travel for business & recreation

• POLLUTION: Forecasting Pollution PlumesResearch & tools for understanding & predicting pollution’s effects

• AIR TRAVEL SAFETY: Clear Air Turbluelnce PredictionHelping pilots avoid dangerous turbulence

• FACILITIES & COMPUTING: NCAR’s Gulf Stream V Aircraft & Supercomputing FacilitiesProviding Tools for the Research Community

Emerging Needs• SOCIETAL IMPACTS: North American Regional Climate Assessment Program

Assisting decision-makers in regional climate-change planning

• REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION: NRCM (The Nested Regional Climate Model) Providing regional “specifics” on changing environments to assist decision-making in your neighborhood


CLIMATE: The Community Climate Systems Model

This simulation estimates potential global change using a coupled climate model that has interactive atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice components.

The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a coupled climate model for simulating the earth's climate system

Composed of four separate but coupled models simultaneously simulating the earth's atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea-ice, the CCSM allows researchers to conduct fundamental research into the earth's past, present and future climate states.

QuickTime™ and aBMP decompressor

are needed to see this picture.




WEATHER: The Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF)

72-hour precipitation forecast: February 27 - March 2, 2007

WRF Model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system

Serves both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs

Developed at NCAR, now in operational use at NOAA, the US Air Force and multiple foreign countries and agencies

Suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers




BIOHAZARDS: The Pentagon Shield Program

One of a series of antiterrorism products

Theme: to provide information about winds, temperature, humidity, and other weather conditions, so security officials can predict the path of a toxic plume and quickly evacuate people

Models provide real time data, thereby providing Pentagon officials with detailed information about the local atmosphere and any signs of a toxic release

Lower, left. Radial velocity field observed by WindTracer assists in prediction of path & velocity of plume


SOLAR MEASUREMENT: Measuring Coronal Magnetic Fields: COSMO

COSMO suite is a large aperture coronagraph with instrumentation to measure coronal magnetic fields

Magnetism dominates the structure and dynamics of the solar corona.

Reliable measurements of the coronal magnetic field strength and orientation have been difficult due to the weakness of coronal magnetic fields

Using a very sensitive infrared spectropolarimeter, developed at NCAR, to observe the strong near-infrared coronal emission line above active regions, scientists have succeeded in measuring the 3-D magnetic fields of the solar corona for the first time


ROAD SAFETY: Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS)

Assists road maintenance crews in making efficient snow and ice removal decisions

Using multiple weather forecasts and minute-by-minute road temperatures collected by trucks and pavement thermometers, a computer can tell plow drivers where to go, and how much and which types of de-icers to use


POLLUTION: Forecasting Pollution Plumes

• Atmospheric chemistry field campaign flight planning is aided by the ability to forecast the occurrence of pollution plumes

• A pollution plume predictive capability was provided by the assimilation of near-real-time experimental carbon monoxide data from satellite observations (MOPPITT)into the MOZART chemical transport model

• This clearly indicated the intercontinental transport pathways of pollution from Chinese industry and south Asian biomass burning, guiding aircraft flight tracks


AIR TRAVEL SAFETY: Helping Pilots Avoid Deadly Clear Air Turbulence

Clear Air Turbulence is a small-scale, short-lived meteorological phenomenon

Difficult to predict using current numerical models

Creates flight dangers Use of multivariate, nonlinear,

statistical models improves the forecast of turbulence potential consiberably

Indices of turbulence potential are derived and correlated to likelihood of encountering turbulence

Improves air travel safety


FACILITIES: NCAR’s HIAPER Aircraft & Supercomputing Facilities

Aircraft• High-performance Instrumented

Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER)

• A modified Gulfstream V jet, HIAPER is designed to fly at the cutting-edge of scientific research for the next several decades.

Computing• 12-Teraflop IBM Supercomputer

for Improved Climate and Weather Research recently installed

• peak performance of 12 teraflops, sustained performance of as much as 2 teraflops


SOCIETAL IMPACTS: NARCAPP: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

NARCCAP is an international program that includes principal investigators from Canada and the UK.

It aims to produce multiple high-resolution climate change scenarios for most of North America.

This program will provide output to the climate analysis community for in-depth regional analyses of climate change.

NCAR researchers are developing new approaches to fine-scale computer modeling to allow greater focus on regional impacts of a changing climate.


REGIONAL CLIMATE: The Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM)

Whole-Year Visualization of Precipitable Water for 1996

A major component of NCAR's Prediction Across Scales program is the development of a nested regional climate model (NCRM).

Seamlessly integrate the weather and climate models in NCAR to capture all important spatial and temporal scales

Assists decision-makers to plan for regional climate changes




NCAR’s Development ProcessHow do NCAR’s research applications become commercial tools?


From Scientific Analysis to End-user Information Systems

Ensemble Predictions

Coastal Environments

GIS Integration

Emergency Response


Avenues for commercial tech-transfer:The UCAR Foundation

Created in 1986 to be UCAR’s agent for technology commercialization

Operates as an IRS 501(c)(3) not-for-profit subsidiary corporation in the state of Colorado

A portion of foundation proceeds is returned to UCAR and NCAR for the advancement of its scientific and technical programs

Success Stories:• STAR Institute

• Peak Weather Technologies

• Witi Corporation

• ARC (Advanced Radar Corporation)


Summary

NCAR provides facilities to the national research community

NCAR conducts pathfinding integrative research into the earth system and the human interactions with that system

Numerous avenues are opening to provide the knowledge and tools needed by society to address pressing issues for societal development

NCAR works through partnerships: with universities, other research labs around the world.

Come visit, we are open to the public throughout the year!


Resources for further information

Community Climate Systems Model: http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu Weather Research & Forecasting Model: http://wrf-model.org Pentagon Shield Program: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/shield/ Measuring Coronal Magnetic Fields:

http://www.cosmo.ucar.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=42 Maintenance Decision Support System: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/rdwx_mdss/ MIRAGE (Modeling pollutant dispersion): http://mirage-mex.acd.ucar.edu/Modeling/ Clear Air Turbulence: http://www.image.ucar.edu/~tebaldi/talks/gtpgsp.pdf Facilities & Computing: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/shield/technology/mei_2004urb.htm and

http://www.cisl.ucar.edu/news/06/1103.blueice.jsp NARCAPP: http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2006/science/protecting/protecting_priority4_1.php Nested Regional Climate Model: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/modeling/nrcm/index.php

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