ECONOMIC AND WORKFORCE

SITUATION REPORT

June 30, 2009

Employment Security Commission:

Dr. Betty McGrath, Director, Labor Market Information Division

Nelse Grundvig, Manager, Labor Market and Occupational Research

Other Labor Market Information Division staff

Rural Center:

Anne Bacon, Senior Director for Workforce Development

R.V. Rikard, Senior Associate for Research

Research Team

North Carolina Rural Counties

Definition of rural…

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

What is the employment and unemployment situation?

Employment

N.C. Non-agricultural EmploymentAnnual Average 2000-2008

Source: ESC (CES) Note: Y Axis set to 3,700 Thousand

N.C. Non-agricultural EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Jan. 2008 - May 2009

Source: ESC (CES) Note: Y Axis set to 3700

Employment

N.C. Unemployment Annual Average 2000-2008

Source: ESC (LAUS)

Unemployment

N.C. UnemploymentJan. 2008 - May 2009 – Seasonally Adjusted

Source: ESC (LAUS)

Unemployment

Highest State Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted - May 2009

Rank State Rate

1 Michigan 14.1

2 Oregon 12.4

3/4 South Carolina 12.1

3/4 Rhode Island 12.1

5 California 11.5

6 Nevada 11.3

7 North Carolina 11.1

8 Ohio 10.8

9/10 Tennessee 10.7

9/10 District of Columbia 10.7

U.S. Unemployment Rate: 9.4% Source: ESC (BLS)

Unemployment

Unemployment

Unemployment Rates Seasonally Unadjusted May 2009

Source: ESC

Rural/Urban Unemployment Rates2000-2008

Unemployment

Source: ESC (LAUS)

Rural/Urban Unemployment RatesJanuary 2008 - May 2009

Unemployment

Source: ESC (LAUS)

People Receiving Food Stamps in N.C. April 2007- April 2009

Source: NC Division of Social Services

Impact

Number of ForeclosuresJanuary 2008 – May 2009

Source: N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts

Impact

What do we know about people filing for unemployment

insurance?

Initial Claims for Unemployment InsuranceJanuary 2008 - May 2009

Source: ESC

Unemployment Insurance

Continued Weeks for Unemployment Insurance

January 2008 – May 2009

Source: ESC

Unemployment Insurance

Individuals Exhausting “Regular” Unemployment Insurance

January 1990 – May 2009

Source: ESC

Unemployment Insurance

Who is a dislocated worker?

• Laid off due to no fault of own

• Definition for this presentation

Dislocated Workers

Geography of Dislocated WorkersJanuary 2009 - May 2009

Source: ESC

Dislocated Workers

Sex of Dislocated Workers January 2009 - May 2009

Source: ESC

Dislocated Workers

Age of Dislocated Workers January 2009 - May 2009

Source: ESC

Dislocated Workers

Race/Ethnicity of Dislocated Workers January 2009 - May 2009

Source: ESC

Dislocated Workers

Dislocated workers now vs. early 2000s:

• More urban than before, but still majority rural

• More white; no longer disproportionately black

• Larger majority male

Dislocated Workers

Yet to come – full impact of…

• Auto industry (supplier) layoffs

• Financial services layoffs

• Government job losses

• Budget crisis

Dislocated Workers

Government as Percent of Total Employment2000 – 2008

Source: ESC (CES)

Dislocated Workers

Previous recovery was slow,didn’t reach all

North Carolina Nonfarm EmploymentJanuary 1990 – May 2009

Recovery Challenges

Source: ESC (CES)

Recovery Challenges

North Carolina Manufacturing EmploymentJanuary 1990 – May 2009

Source: ESC (CES)

Poverty2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Recovery Challenges

Poverty2007

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Recovery Challenges

Re-employment slow

• 59.4% after one year

• 61.9% after two years

(2001 layoffs)

Source: ESC (MLS analysis for Gaining a Foothold)

Personal Recovery Challenges

New jobs pay less

• 78.2% of original wages after one year

• 80.5% after two years

(2001 layoffs)

Source: ESC (MLS analysis for Gaining a Foothold)

Personal Recovery Challenges

• Earlier recovery didn’t reach all

• This recession - whole different scale

• Worker dislocation now more widespread• Urban counties hit hard; rural counties hit

harder (some exceptions)

• More to come - key industries• Pain will continue long after economy

starts to turn around

Summary