nber working paper series the trade and investment … · nber working paper no. 10160 december...
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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
THE TRADE AND INVESTMENT EFFECTSOF PREFERENTIAL TRADING ARRANGEMENTS
Philippa DeeJyothi Gali
Working Paper 10160http://www.nber.org/papers/w10160
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138December 2003
Paper prepared for Fourteenth Annual NBER-East Asian Seminar on Economics, Taipei, 5-7 September 2003.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau ofEconomic Research.
©2003 by Philippa Dee and Jyothi Gali. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed twoparagraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is givento the source.
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The Trade and Investement Effects of Preferential Trading ArrangementsPhilippa Dee and Jyothi GaliNBER Working Paper No. 10160December 2003JEL No. F1
ABSTRACT
This study quantifies the impact of traditional and ‘new age’ provisions of preferential trading
arrangements (PTAs) on merchandise trade and investment. It does so by estimating gravity models
of bilateral trade and investment. It finds that recent and some past PTAs are not as benign as some
contemporary empirical assessments have suggested. A careful consideration of the analytical issues
– including controlling comprehensively for other observable and unobservable factors, and testing
explicitly for whether the trade and investment effects are significantly different after PTA formation
than before – accounts for less favourable finding in this study. It is also possible for PTAs to have
adverse effects on investment flows. If investment responds in ‘beachhead’ fashion to the trade
provisions of PTAs, the trade carried out from those beachheads could constitute traditional trade
diversion. However, the paper finds little evidence of beachhead investment. Instead, it finds
evidence of net investment creation in response to the ‘new age’, non-trade provisions of PTAs.
Thus the finding on investment is more positive than for trade, but not without qualifications, since
trade diversion is still possible from the new investment positions.
Philippa DeeAPSEGCrawford BuildingAustralian National UniversityCanberra 0200Australia
Jyothi GaliAPSEGCrawford BuildingAustralian National UniversityCanberra 0200Australia
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