nawdex dry run - german aerospace centeroct 05, 2015 · nawdex dry run mon 05 october 2015 1)...
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NAWDEX DRY RUNMon 05 October 20151) Discussion of flight on 04 October2) Synoptic situation on 05 October3) Discussion of flights on 05 October4) Forecast for upcoming days
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Discussion of flight on 04 October 2015 – 00 UTC
Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP
WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTCPV@320 K on 4 October, 00 UTC
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Discussion of flight on 04 October 2015 – 00 UTC
MSLP
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 950 hPa
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 950 hPa
FC IT: 02-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015
Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP
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SYNOPTIC SITUATION on 05 October 2015 – 00 UTC
Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP
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DISCUSSION OF 1st FLIGHT – 05 October
PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
FC IT: 02-10-2015 FC IT: 02-10-2015
PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC
FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015
WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
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DISCUSSION OF 1st FLIGHT – 05 October
PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 600 hPa
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 500 hPa
FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 05-10-2015
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DISCUSSION OF 2nd FLIGHT – 05 October
PV@320 K on 5 October, 12 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
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Forecast for upcoming days
Tuesday, 00 UTC
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Forecast for upcoming days
Wednesday, 00 UTC
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Forecast for upcoming days
Thursday, 00 UTC
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Forecast for upcoming days
Thursday, 00 UTC
WCB inflow on Wednesday WCB outflow on Friday
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Thursday 1 Oct web conf : discussion around the low near Ireland on Mon 5 Oct
SLP + 200-hPa wind speed
Arpege Météo-France forecastThur00+72H : Sun 00H UTC
Low
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ECMWF and Arpege forecastsECMWF Thur00+48H : Sat00 ECMWF Thur00+72H : Sun00 ECMWF Thur00+96H : Mon00
Arpege Thur00+48H : Sat00 Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00 Arpege Thur00+96H : Mon00
SLP + 850-hPa wind speed
SLP + 200-hPa wind speed
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Ensemble forecasts : EPS SLP 990 Hpa isoline for different members
T+72H (Sat3 00UTC) T+96H (Mon4 00UTC)
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Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Sun4 +00UTC ECMWF : T+72H (51 runs) Météo-France : T+78H (35 runs)
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Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Mon5 +00UTC ECMWF : T+96H (51 runs) Météo-France : T+102H (35 runs)
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Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Mon5 +00UTC ECMWF : T+96H (51 runs) ECMWF : T+24H (351 runs)
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Thurs Arpege Forecast T+60 UTC (saturday 12 UTC) Analysis Saturday 12 UTC
Theta anomalies on 1.5 PVU
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More detailed features using Arpege forecasts : Relative Vorticity at 850 hPa and winds at 850hPa
Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00 Arpege Thur00+96H : Mon00Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00
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More detailed features using Arpege forecasts : on Monday 00 UTC
Relative vorticity + winds 850hPa Cloud cover
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From Sun 00UTC T+18H : looking at Sunday 018 UTC
Relative vorticity + winds 850hPa Cloud cover