Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.  ~Lao Tzu

POPULATION STABILIZATION

AT THE BEGINNING OF 2009, WORLD POPULATION WAS 6.7 BILLION.

POPULATION HAS DOUBLED IN THE LAST 40 YEARS.

POPULATION IS INCREASING FASTER THAN MANY RENEWABLE RESOURCES CAN REGENERATE.

THE AMOUNT OF BOTH RENEWABLE AND NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES PER PERSON IS DECREASING.

APPROXIMATELY 2 BILLION PEOPLE LIVE IN POVERTY. THIS IS MORE THAN THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE EARTH 100 YEARS AGO.

POPULATIONS IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE STARTING TO STABILIZE.

HOWEVER, POPULATIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AT A RAPID RATE.

EXAMPLE: AFRICA’S DOUBLING TIME IS APPROXIMATELY 30 YEARS.

THE U.S. POPULATION AT THE BEGINNING OF 2009 WAS 307 MILLION.

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE = # OF CHILDREN WOMEN IN A POPULATION WOULD HAVE IN THEIR LIFETIMES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS

REPRODUCTIVE AGE GROUP IS 15 TO 45 YEARS

U.S. = 2.0

CANADA = 1.5

INDIA = 3.0

REPLACEMENT FERTILITY RATE = EXACT RATE NEEDED TO REPLACE EXISTING POPULATION

FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, THE REPLACEMENT FERTILITY RATE IS 2.1, AS 1 OUT OF 21 BIRTHS DO NOT MAKE IT TO CHILD BEARING AGE.

IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, THE REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY RATE IS HIGHER, AS INFANT MORTALITY IS HIGHER.

U.S. POPULATION IS EXPECTED TO GROW TO 420 MILLION BY 2050. IT IS INCREASING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 0.6% PER YEAR, ALTHOUGH THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IS BELOW THE REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY RATE.

THE INCREASE IN POPULATION IS DUE TO:

1.LAG EFFECT2.IMMIGRATION

ABOUT 30% OF THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IS DUE TO IMMIGRATION.

3200 PEOPLE ENTER THE U.S. EACH DAY.

2200 ENTER LEGALLY.

1000 ENTER ILLEGALLY.

WHAT ARE THE PROS AND CONS OF IMMIGRATION, AND HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT IT?

GLOBALLY, IF WE REACHED REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY TODAY, THE POPULATION WOULD STILL CONTINUE TO GROW BY AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 BILLION BECAUSE OF THE LAG EFFECT.

ON AVERAGE, A PERSON IN THE U.S. CONSUMES ABOUT 25 TIMES THE AMOUNT OF RESOURCES AS A PERSON IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY.

THIS MEANS THAT A FAMILY OF 3 IN THE U.S. WOULD CONSUME AS MUCH AS 75 PEOPLE IN INDIA.

BASED ON HOW MUCH WE CONSUME, A SUSTAINABLE POPULATION FOR THE U.S. WOULD BE ABOUT 200 MILLION PEOPLE IF WE REDUCED OUR ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY 50%.

USE OF RESOURCES BY PEOPLE IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD IS OFTEN EXPRESSED AS THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT.

THIS IS DEFINED AS “THE AREA OF PRODUCTIVE LAND AND WATER ECOSYSTEMS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THE RESOURCES THAT A PERSON OR A POPULATION CONSUMES AND ASSIMILATE THE WASTES THAT THE POPULATION PRODUCES.”

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IS EXPRESSED IN HECTARES.

1 HECTARE = 100 METERS SQUARED = 10,000 M2 = 2.5 ACRES.

THE DIAGRAM BELOW EXPRESSES THE AVERAGE GLOBAL FOOTPRINT.

“There are only 15.71 global hectares available per person on a renewable basis. This means we are overshooting the Earth's biological capacity by nearly 50%. To sustain present levels of consumption, we would need:”

FACTORS INFLUENCING BIRTH RATE:1.AGE AT WHICH MEN AND WOMEN GET MARRIED2.EDUCATION LEVEL3.WHETHER A WOMAN WORKS AFTER MARRIAGE4.USE OF CONTRACEPTIVES5.# OF CHILDREN A COUPLE WANTS6.CULTURAL VALUES7.RELIGIOUS VALUES

FACTORS INFLUENCING DEATH RATE:1.FOOD AVAILABILITY2.SANITATION3.WATER PURIFICATION4.MEDICAL AVAILABILITY

PEOPLE WHO STUDY POPULATION OFTEN DIVIDE COUNTRIES INTO DEVELOPED COUNTRIES AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.

ON AVERAGE, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE GROWING AT THE RATE OF ~0.1% PER YEAR.

U.S. IS GROWING AT 0.6% PER YEAR.

DENMARK AND BELGIUM ARE GROWING AT 0.1% PER YEAR.

GREECE IS GROWING AT 0% PER YEAR.

GERMANY, SWEDEN, AND HUNGARY ARE GROWING AT -0.1% PER YEAR.

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE GROWING AT 1.5% PER YEAR.

THERE IS A RECENT BOOK CALLED “TOO MANY PEOPLE? POPULATION, IMMIGRATION, AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS” BY IAN ANGUS AND SIMON BUTLER.

THIS BOOK MAINTAINS THAT POPULATION IS NOT THE PROBLEM – THAT LIFESTYLES AND CONSUMERISM ARE THE PROBLEMS.

THE BOOK MAINTAINS THAT WE DO NOT NEED TO ADOPT EXTREME MEASURES – POPULATION WILL LEVEL OUT AT AROUND 9 BILLION PEOPLE AND THEN WILL DECREASE SOME.

WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN FOR POPULATION TO STABILIZE IN A COUNTRY?

1. NUMBER OF WOMEN ENTERING THE REPRODUCTIVE AGE GROUP MUST LEVEL OFF OR DECLINE

2. THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE MUST REMAIN BELOW REPLACEMENT LEVEL

3. IMMIGRATION MUST BE HELD IN CHECK

FOR THESE THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN, ATTITUDES MUST CHANGE AND ACTIONS MUST BE TAKEN.

FOR EXAMPLE, WHY SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT POPULATION GROWTH IN THE LESS DEVELOPED WORLD?

LIFE EXPECTANCY IS INCREASING GLOBABLY.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING, AND HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT IT?

WHAT MIGHT CHANGE THIS?

ATTITUDES NEED TO CHANGE IN SOME PARTS OF THE WORLD.

IN SOME SOCIETIES, WOMEN CAN ONLY GAIN STATUS BY BEARING CHILDREN.

“AS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INCREASES, POPULATION GROWTH SLOWS AS JOBS ARE CREATED, PERSONAL WEALTH GROWS, AND PEOPLE ARE ABLE TO AFFORD DECENT HOUSING, FOOD, AND EDUCATION.”

- Chiras –

THIS IS WELL AND GOOD, BUT MANY LDC’S DON’T HAVE THE TIME OR ECONOMIC RESOURCES TO BRING ABOUT SUCH A CHANGE.

WOULD THIS CREATE A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY?

CERTAINLY, ROLES FOR MEN AND WOMEN NEED TO CHANGE.

IN SOME PARTS OF THE WORLD, GOVERNMENTS ARE OFFERING INCENTIVES OR PENALTIES.

-CHINA – ONE CHILD PER COUPLE POLICY-EGYPT – RADIOS FOR WOMEN ON CONTRACEPTION-THAILAND – LOW INTEREST LOANS FOR WOMEN ON CONTRACEPTION

THERE ARE SEVERAL INTERNATIONAL AND GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS OFFERING SUPPORT FOR FAMILY PLANNING:

UNFPA – UNITED NATIONS FUND FOR POPULATION ACTIVITIES

IPPF – INTERNATIONA PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERATION

USAID – U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

WHAT DO YOU CALL PEOPLE WHO HAVE UNPROTECTED SEX?

WHAT DO YOU CALL PEOPLE WHO HAVE UNPROTECTED SEX?

PARENTS!

This is not a religious precept. It is simply a statement of biological fact.

That’s what happens, and everyone needs to be aware of that.

What our policies are from there is anyone’s guess.

CONTRACEPTIVE EFFECTIVENESS

* Abstinence 100% * Depo-Provera 99.7% * Diaphragm or Cap with Spermicide 85 to 96% * Female Condom 85 to 98% * IUD (Intrauterine Device) 98 to 99% * IUS (Intrauterine System) impregnated with progestogen almost 100% * Male Condom & Spermicide 85 to 98% * Male Condom Only 88% * Norplant 99.9% * Oral Contraceptives 97% (Combined Pill almost 100%; Progesterone Only Pill about 97%) * Spermicide Only 79% * Tubal Ligation almost 100% * Vasectomy almost 100%

IF YOU WERE IN CHARGE, WHAT WOULD YOUR POLICY BE?