Natural Hazards and Disaster Management

H.S.VIRK#360 Sector 71,SAS Nagar-160071

DISASTER: Need for a Definition

• Webster's Dictionary defines a disaster as 'a grave occurrence having ruinous results'. WHO defines disaster as 'any occurrence that causes damage, economic destruction, loss of human life and deterioration in health and health services on a scale sufficient to warrant an extraordinary response from outside the affected community'.

Indian Disasters Report 2000

• Disasters are either natural, such as floods, droughts, cyclones and earthquakes, or man-made such as riots, conflicts, refugee situations and others like fire, epidemics, industrial accidents, and environmental fallouts. In 1996, 40 million people were affected by disasters. During 1990-95, over 30 billion US$ was spent on humanitarian assistance. On the average, 3 billion US$ is spent on disaster mitigation every year while the average annual global military spending is around 780 billion US dollars. In South Asia, where poverty, deprivation and death due to disasters are a common feature of life, India remains the worst affected country.

Natural Hazards, Disasters and Vulnerability

• Natural hazards become disasters when they impact on the vulnerabilities of an area/region and its people. For example, cigarette smoking or drug-addiction is a health hazard, which can become a disaster if the vulnerable section of population is exposed to it freely. The vulnerability of a region is a complex phenomenon; it is defined as the influence on it by heterogeneity of social, political and economic factors. Natural or man-made hazards impact differently in different parts of the world depending upon vulnerability.

What is Vulnerability?

• The 1993, Latur earthquake of 6.2 M left over 10,000 dead and destroyed 200, 000 households. However, much more powerful (7.5 M) Los Angeles earthquake of 1971 killed only 55 persons. In India, with a fast growing population, the disaster mitigation and management must take into account the assessment of risk and vulnerability of the area under consideration.

India: A Country Profile on Disasters

• During the decade 1988-97, disasters in India affected over 24 million people and killed 5116 each year, on the average. The economic loss amounted to 1884 million US $ per year.

• In India, 11.2 percent area is flood-prone, 28 percent of total cultivable area is drought-prone and it is estimated that 57 percent of India is earthquake-prone.

India: A Country of Disasters

• India suffers from communal and caste riots. The number of internally displaced people caused by developmental projects is probably 30 million today. The road transport system in India is about to crack. The number of 4-wheeled vehicles is increasing at a tremendous rate and it has been forecast that 300 million vehicles will be on the roads by AD 2050. The country, on the face of it, presents a dismal picture, so far as disaster management is concerned.

Major Disasters in India(1990-2k)

• United Nations declared 1990-2000 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). During this decade, India faced many major disasters, e.g., cyclones in Andhra Pradesh (1990 & 96) and Gujarat (1998), earthquakes in Uttarkashi (1991), Latur (1993), Jabalpur (1997) and Bhuj (2001), landslide in Uttar Pradesh (1998), in addition to floods (1993-1999). On an average 3000 lives have been lost besides destruction of public property worth 10,000 million rupees.

Indian Response to Disasters

• Keeping in view, the objectives of IDNDR and Yokohoma Declaration, Indian Government has planned for disaster preparedness, mitigation and management at the national, state and district level by creating infrastructure, namely National Centre for Disaster Management (NCDM), Calamity Relief Fund (CRF) at state level and National Fund for calamity Relief (NFCR) at national level. Forecasting and warning systems to deal with floods, cyclones, droughts and earthquakes are being upgraded.

Disaster Mitigation & Management: What is Our Contribution?

• Our Group in GND University was involved in Earthquake Prediction studies in Punjab and HP (Kangra & Chamba valleys). We failed to predict Earthquakes but our research has set some benchmarks in this field.

• Radiation survey of Punjab was carried out under DAE Project to determine effect of Environmental Natural Radiation on the health of its people.

What Indian Mythology Tells?

• Earth is supported on the horns of a mighty Bull. Earthquakes are caused due to shifting of Earth from one horn to the other by the Bull.

• Guru Nanak Dev in Japuji rejected this Myth in a logical manner: If our Earth is supported by one Bull then what supports the millions of other planets like our Earth?

Causes of Earthquakes

• Earthquakes (EQs) are caused by sudden releases of strain energy accumulated during long intervals due to relative motion of Tectonic plates of earth; 6 major and 6 minor. EQs are of two types: Tectonic and Volcanic. Tectonic EQs are of three types: Interplate, Intraplate and SCR(Stable Continental Region). Magnitude of EQs is measured on Richter scale. EQ of 6.3M is equivalent to the Atomic Bomb thrown on Hiroshima in its destructive power.

Concept of Tectonic Plates

Illustration of Seismic Waves

Hypocenter, Epicenter, Seismic Wave and Fault

Global Frequency of Earthquakes

Magnitude Description No. of Earthquakes/Year

8.5 and up Great 0.3

8-8.4 Great 1

7.5-7.9 Major 3

7-7.4 Major 15

6.6-6.9 Destructive 56

6-6.5 Destructive 210

5-5.9 Damaging 800

4-4.9 Minor 6200

3-3.9 Minor 49000

2-2.9 Minor 300000

0-1.9 Minor 700000

Population Growth and Fatalities due to Earthquake Hazards

San Francisco Earthquake of 1906

The Great Kanto Earthquake(1923)

LIST OF SOME SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES IN INDIA AND ITS NEIGHBOURHOOD

  DATE EPICENTRE LOCATION MAGNITUDE

Lat( Deg N ) Long( Deg E )

1819 JUN 16 23.6 68.6 KUTCH,GUJARAT 8.0

1869 JAN 10 25 93 NEAR CACHAR, ASSAM 7.5

1885 MAY 30 34.1 74.6 SOPOR, J&K 7.0

1897 JUN 12 26 91 SHILLONGPLATEAU 8.7

1905 APR 04 32.3 76.3 KANGRA, H.P 8.0

1918 JUL 08 24.5 91.0 SRIMANGAL, ASSAM 7.6

1930 JUL 02 25.8 90.2 DHUBRI, ASSAM 7.1

1934JAN 15 26.6 86.8 BIHAR-NEPALBORDER 8.3

1941 JUN 26 12.4 92.5 ANDAMAN ISLANDS 8.1

1943 OCT 23 26.8 94.0 ASSAM 7.2

1950 AUG 15 28.5 96.7 ARUNACHAL PRADESH-CHINA BORDER 8.5

1956 JUL 21 23.3 70.0 ANJAR, GUJARAT 7.0

1967 DEC 10 17.37 73.75 KOYNA, MAHARASHTRA 6.5

1975 JAN 19 32.38 78.49 KINNAUR, HP 6.2

1988 AUG 06 25.13 95.15 MANIPUR-MYANMAR BORDER 6.6

1988 AUG 21 26.72 86.63 BIHAR-NEPAL BORDER 6.4

1991 OCT 20 30.75 78.86 UTTARKASHI, UP HILLS 6.6

1993 SEP 30 18.07 76.62 LATUR-OSMANABAD, MAHARASHTRA 6.3

1997 MAY 22 23.08 80.06 JABALPUR,MP 6.0

1999 MAR 29 30.41 79.42 CHAMOLI DIST, UP  6.8

2001 JAN 26 23.40 70.28 BHUJ , GUJARAT 6.9

What is Earthquake Prediction?

• The ultimate aim of EQ prediction is to establish reliability to issue timely warning so as to save life and property. A valid prediction should be based on four essential elements:

• Time window in which the Event will occur.• Location of the Event with all coordinates.• Magnitude range, and • Statistical probability of the Event.

Chamba (1995)

Uttarkashi (1991)

Chamoli (1999)

Radon Emanometer used for radon sampling

Soil-gas probe used for radon sampling

Soil-Gas Emanometry

Groundwater radon sampling methodolgy

Groundwater Emanometry

Radon Survey in Groundwater at Palampur (Virk, Randhawa & Ramola)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

MA

R'9

5 4 7

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

Time Window (March 1995)

Ra

do

n C

on

c. (

Bq

/L)

Soil-Gas

Groundwater

C+2s

C+2s

C- 2s

C

C

Chamba Eq. (M=5.1)

=4.73

=4.52

(Virk et al., 1995)

Dalhousie

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mar

. 99 3 5 7 9

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Time window (March 1999)

Rad

on C

onc.

(Bq/

L)

Groundwater

Soil-gas

C+2s

C+2s

C

C2

Chamoli Eq M=6.8

M=3.2Ep = 87 km

(Virk et al. 2001)

Palampur

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

Mar

. 99 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Time window (March 99)

Hel

ium

Con

c. (p

pm)

Chamoli Eq

(Virk et al. 2001)

Palampur

79

8070

83

40

2019

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Time Window

No.

of E

vent

s/Y

ear

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Avg

. Rad

on C

onc.

/Yea

r

Seismic Events/year

Avg. Rn conc./year

Variation of Radon Conc. with Microseismicity in the region

(Walia et al. 2003)

Nuclear Explosion of 11 May, 1998 at Pokhran recorded at Amritsar

Proposed Earthquake Monitoring Network for India

Destruction by Bhuj Earthquake

Future Scenario of Earthquakes

Hongkong (Densely Populated

Disaster Management Structure

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