Masayuki WATANABEResearch Institute for Social Development, Community

Empowerment and Peace Inc.

Natural Disasters in Asia– Their Historical and Ecological Aspects

Leadership and Capacity cannot catch up with the changesin socio-economic and environmental sectors

in developing countries, WHY ?

We are going to take care of vulnerable populationas much as possible.

How we can make their vulnerabilities less ? Can we take care of all the vulnerable people ?I would say “Yes ! if we could divert the funds for

arm to public welfare !”Is it a realistic program ?“Yes ! it could be.

Campaign for a landmine free world must be an example.

What we, Japanese, have learned since 1940sPeace is the precondition of hazardless environments. Impossible to buy missiles and reinforcing materials for

earthquake-prone houses at the same time Impossible to have a gun in the right hand and teaching

materials for awareness promotion to hazards in the left hand at the same time.

Manila, 1945 ISBN4-87648-159-8 C0372NDC210.75,NDC209.7 共同通信社

Totally nonsense to teach how to kill on the one hand and to rescue on the other hand at the same time.

A war results in nothing but total destruction ofa family, community, soil, trust, justice and life, andmakes a community much more vulnerable to hazards.

ISBN4-87648-150-8 C0372Manila 1945 NDC210.75,NDC209.7

共同通信社

Asahi Shinbun,1999 目撃者 III-15

IHT910514

Casualties by year, Fukuma, 1993

Houses broken

Specialists in disaster prevention and preparedness cannot find a job in the disaster prevention sector when a state is at war.

Specialists in DPP can feed themselves only when peace is restored and prosperity is achieved.

Specialists in DPP are therefore the benefi-ciaries of peace dividend.

防災専門家は平和の配当の最大の享受者だ

The cause of high vulnerability to hazard is population burst due to

repatriation of soldiers and immigrantsbaby-boom and poverty in initially

rural areas and in urban areasafterward

3. Vulnerabilities to disasters in developing countries

3-1. Quick denudation

Striking gap between the areas with forest cover and the areas denudesNagasaki, 1958

Excess forest resource exploitation and associated denudation

Human resources development can never be achieved without achievinghigher living standard by raising income level.

分家の災害タイ版行政の不備・後進性

Environmental deterioration due to poverty and poor governance and associated disasters due

to flash floods

Unprecedented disasters one after another !

不正・不法の動いた証拠Gigantic stump cannot be preparedwithout using heavy duty machines.

水+流木＋土砂石礫＋構造物の破片

Variety of substances in a flood ranging from water, boulders, woods, fragments of houses, structures, cars and ------

Poor skill in design, monitoring, maintenance and rehabilitation. Precious resources have been washed away in flood water.

Poor coordination in landuse, infrastructure buildingand risk management

You may go enjoy your life in the Paradise !, but note that trust and confidence have not yet been well

built.

Road construction disregarding drainage pattern, forest environment and morphological conditions

Looks fantastic under the brilliant sunshine and nice breeze but,

land development for housing and industries disregarding hydrologic and hydraulic conditions

due to heavy erosion………….. An excellent building code was enacted but, not enforced……. because of, perhaps, rampant.. bribe taking. Money for bribe

must be diverted for public

Poor land-use management………….. and urban plan !

Why is it possible to build a massive building on the fragile foundation ?

Higher risks of disasters in both developing and developed countries due to dramatic increaseof population who live in the areas of which ground height is

less than 10m

Quick urbanization and associated high vulnerabilities to landslides, flash flood and

inundation

Poor law-enforcement capacity allows lawlessness in the areas in which gigantic investment has been made for

disaster prevention. Beautiful resolutions have been made one after another,but ,

Striking gaps between the rich and the poor in both rural and urban areas

The poor use all their might, but-----

The rich harvest volume of sand by heavy duty machines

Poor maintenance capacity due to poor ownership and poor incentives

Practices for monitoring, maintenance and rehabilitation are always

slighted because little kickback is anticipated.

1990 North Luzon EarthquakeRules and codes are perfect because most of them are prepared and proclaimed following the cases enacted in developed countries, but

Un-appropriate assistance disregarding socio-anthropological factors always results in nothing but despair and higher vulnerabilities.

Assistance and cooperation of the large bouquet model 1. seminar, symposium and/or training for awareness

promotion and technology transfer for the poor and at risk

2. industrial development programs without market 3. development studies without financial resources 4. large structural measures without considering

funds shortage and poor maintenance capacity 5. sophisticated mapping and zoning

All of these are of no use unless there is a will, an self-help spirit, mutual assistance mechanism and leadership.

Poor perception on the disaster coping culture1. A community rich in commons;

Netherlands as an example and Japan featured by old tradition of flood fighting technologies

2. A community with poor commonsnewly settled cotton farm communities in Tajikistanand refugees communities in Afghanistan

ThisWe

is my own town.made it all from every piece of

pavement stone to the air. - the sense of commons -

Living on the flood-prone alluvial fan

With poor flood prevention culture

Specific stud

Promotiawarsubjec

mechanism for integration of the products of disasteries, political will and policy.is needed

on of politician’s awareness as well as public eness promotion must be proposed as one of the essentialts of the OECD and G8.

Income generation project had successfully disarmed tribalpeople in the areas of Pashton and Baroch, Pakistan in 1985.

Income generation projects by promoting cottage industries can

successfully fill gender gap, improve sanitation and education level,and promote awareness to hazards because the had something to protect.

Campaign for fair election---None of us take bribe for votes

Social and political vulnerabilities due to poverty, illiteracy, bribe-

tainted governance, gender gap, etc.

Saving lives has a high political, but low economic significance in India, where labor is cheap. It is fortune that in the case of saving lives, there is this coincidence of interests between the poorest and the government. Programs that emphasize property protection are of less value for the poorest, because they have little or nothing to protect.

It is most important to raise the economic status of the poor,so that they can react and respond to risk communication by making choices that safeguard both their property and their lives; rather than the

present situation where they are powerless to react because of their economic impotence.

(Winchester, P.,1990, Economic Power and Response to Risk:a case Study from India, Hazards and the Communication of Risk, Gower Technical,)

Root causes of vulnerability

Cut-flowers-type assistance and cooperation for a

1. nation-wide networks for monitoring and information transmission

2. project for institutional systems and organizational structures building

3. computerized system 4. training program without job opportunities 5. sophisticated disaster database system in a country

with data vacuum and without feedback system due to brain-drain and etc.

are in vain.

Cooperation, assistance and aid, if necessary, of cut-flower type but arbors-type

like the ones along the Potomac, in Washington D.C.