Natural Disasters and Energy111024submitted ? Natural Disasters and Energy: ... Displaced people

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NaturalDisastersandEnergy:NewFutureofPowerPlantsYoshiakiOka,ProfessorCooperativeMajorinNuclearEnergyGraduateSchoolofAdvancedScienceandEngineeringWaseda UniversityThe10th JapanKoreaMillenniumForum,November910,2011,Yonsei University,Incheon,Korea1Outline March11EarthquakeandTsunami Fukushimanuclearpowerplantaccident Energysources Globalwarming Renewablesandnewenergydevelopment Nuclearenergy Summary2PropagationoftheearthquakeUnderestimatedmagnitude,sourceareaandsliplengthInitiationfromB,thenpropagatedwestwardstoareaA,andfurthertotheNorthandSouthdowntoIbarakiCoalfiredandNuclearpowerplants(NPPs)wereshutdown.LossofexternalpowerofNPPs.[SOURCE]Gov.ReporttotheIAEA,June2011andA.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,20113Tsunamiandwaveheight5to8metersupthrust ona180kmwideseabedresultedinamajortsunamiSource:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2011_Tohoku_earthquake_observed_tsunami_heights_en.png4SendaiportaftertsunamiBlacksmokecomingfromtheNipponoilrefineryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami 5FallenpowerpolesinIshinomakiSource:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fallen_power_poles_in_Ishinomaki.jpg 6Earthquake and tsunami (summary) Earthquake:Magnitude;9,Duration;6minutes,Depth;32km,Maximumintensity;9,Peakacceleration;3.0G Tsunamiheight;upto40.5m Casualties:15,824deaths, 5,942injured, 3,847peoplemissing DisplacedpeoplebyTsunami:over300,000 Evacuatedresidentswithin20kmofFukushimanuclearpowerplants;140,000http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami 7Electricity;RollingblackoutSeveralnuclearandcoalfiredpowerplantswentofflineaftertheearthquake.RollingblackoutofTEPCOfor2weeksfromMarch,11,2011.Nuclearpowerplantsgraduallywentofflineforperiodicinspectionandfailedtoobtainapprovalofrestartfromthelocalgovernment.(42unitsofflineamong53inJapaninOctober2011)DemandcontrolwillcontinueinthecomingwinterinTEPCO,KansaiandTohokuEP.Oilandgasimportincreasesandelectricitybillwillincrease.Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunamiNounifiednationalpowergridinJapanduetothegeologicdividebetween50Hzand60Hzsystem.8OilandgasCosmoOilexplosion,Chiba,TokyobayOilrefineriesweresetonfirebythequake.Oiltanksdamagedbytsunamiandflowedintothebay.SourceofbigfireofKesennuma,majorfishingporthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunamihttp://www.ristex.jp/public/earthquake/project.html 914NPPsalongthecoastallineaffectedbyTsunami[SOURCE]A.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,201110[SOURCE]A.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,2011Fukushimasite1nuclearpowerplantsdamagedbytsunami11Fukushimasite1nuclearpowerplantsdamagedbytsunamiandhydrogenexplosion[SOURCE]A.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,201112Reactor building4F; Refueling floorUnit 1,3,4Hydrogen explosionContainmentUnit 1,2,3LeakageReactor pressure vesselUnit 1,2,3Bottom leakageSpent fuel pool: low water levelFukushima site 1, unit 1,2,3,4 Station blackout and Loss of ultimate heat sink: Loss of cooling of residual heat resulted in core meltdown accidents and hydrogen explosion.BWR(Boilingwaterreactor) 13LandcontaminationandevacuationEvacuatedresidentswithin20km;140,000Source:http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/1750/2011/09/1750_092018.pdf,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Towns_evacuated_around_Fukushima_on_April_11th,_2011.png 14SocioeconomicimpactoftheChernobylnuclearaccidentChernobylforumreport20032005);ShouldbeminimizedinFukushima Resettlementandlimitationsonagriculturalproductionhaveanegativeimpactontheeconomyoftheaffectedregions.(330,000peoplerelocated,116,000ofthemevacuatedimmediately.) Resettlementwas adeeplytraumaticexperience.Manyareunemployedandhavelittlecontrolovertheirownlives.Someolderresettlers mayneveradjust. Alargeproportionofskilled,educatedandentrepreneurialpeoplehavealsolefttheregion,hamperingthechancesforeconomicrecoveryandraisingtheriskofpoverty. Thepercentageofelderlyindividualsisabnormallyhigh. Thelargestimpactonindividuals isthementalhealthimpact.Psychologicaldistressanditsaftermathhashadaprofoundimpactonindividualandcommunitybehavior.Associatedwiththeseperceptionsisanexaggeratedsenseofthedangerstohealthofexposuretoradiation. Anxietyovertheeffectsofradiationonhealthshowsnosignofdiminishing.Indeed,itmayevenbespreadingbeyondtheaffectedareasintoawidesectionofthepopulation.Parentsmaybetransferringtheiranxietytotheirchildrenthroughexcessivelyprotectivecare. Asenseofvictimizationanddependencycreatedbygovernmentsocialprotectionpoliciesiswidespreadintheaffectedareas.Sourcehttp://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl.pdf pp3437Chernobylforum:IAEA,WHO,UNDP,FAO,UNEP,UNOCHA,UNSCEAR,WB,Belarus,Russia,Ukraine15KnownAdverse EffectsNo knownAdverse Effects100 mSvACBPotential Damage to HealthRadiation Dose [mSv]2.4 mSvAverage Yearly Exposurefrom Natural CausesDose Causing ObservableAdverse Health EffectsReliableDatabaseArea ofControversyHealtheffectoflowlevelradiation Acutehealtheffectoccursabovethresholddose. NoacutehealtheffectobservedatFukushimaincludingTEPCOworkers. Latenthealtheffectisnotobservedatlowdose,below100mSv. Assumednothresholdlinearhypothesis;Sourceoffearofradiationandbigsocioeconomicproblems. Latenteffectwillbestudiedforlongperiod,butmaybeandhopefullynolatenteffectwillbeobservedinFukushimabecauseofthesuccessfulevacuation. Itisdifficulttoclarifythehealtheffectofhumanbeingatlowdosefromthepresentscience. 16Whatsnecessary DecontaminationandeconomicrestorationofFukushimaprefecture Improvementofregulatorysystem Designimprovementcopingwithcoremeltdownaccidentandmitigatingitsenvironmentaleffects Comparativestudyofhealtheffectsatlowdoseofvariousriskssuchasradiation,chemicalproducts,etc.incollaborationofinternationalorganizations Separationofregulationandpromotion Shareoflessonslearnedintheworld Never,everagainanywhereintheworld17Energysources18Fossilfuelsaremajorprimaryenergysourcesinceindustrialrevolutionfor250yearsSource;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 19Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 20Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 21JapanandKoreadependsonimportedenergysourcesevenFranceimports49%.Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.htmlUSenergy(basic)policy:Lessthan25%ofimportdependencefornationalsecurity22Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 23Primaryenergysource(summary) Energyisessentialtolifeandactivitiesofmankind. Energydemandwillgrowwiththedevelopmentofcountries inthe21st century. Energysecurityisimportantforthesecurityofthenation. Wars,battlesforoilsandgasoccurredandoccurringintheworld.Ex.2nd worldwar,Middleeast,Africa.(Nowarafter2nd worldwarineastAsiaisthereasonofitseconomicdevelopment.) Oil,gas,andcoalaremajorsourceofenergyafterindustrialrevolution.EvenFranceitis56%ofprimaryenergy. JapanandKoreaheavilydependonimportedprimaryenergysource. OilimportfrommiddleeastincreaseagaininJapan.Maysufferdoublepunchesfromincreaseofoilpriceanddecreaseofyen(exchangerate)inthefuture.24Globalwarming25Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 26ThegreenbarsshowuncertaintyestimatesSource:WikipediaGlobalwarming27Temperaturerisein200009Comparedtoaveragetemperaturesrecordedbetween1951and1980Themostextremewarming,showninred,wasintheArcticSource:WikipediaGlobalwarming28Source:WikipediaGlobalwarming29CO2 emissionsintheworld China:20,USA;20%,Japan;4,Korea;1.7% Perperson;USA;18.4t/p,Japan;9t/pChina;5t/p,India;1.25t/p EmissionofChinaandIndiawillincrease Kyotoprotocolcoversonly28%intheworld.30CO2 EmissioninJapandirect enduser Powergeneration 32% Industrialprocess28% 34% Transportation 19% 19% Household 5% 14% Office 19% Energyconversion 2% 6%31Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 32Renewablesandnewenergydevelopment33Developmentofrenewables/newenergytechnologiesinJapan Sunshineproject(19741992):Coal,geothermal,hydrogenenergy Moonlightproject(19781993);Energyconservation Newsunshineproject(19932000):Coalgasification,geothermal,photovoltaic,hydrogenenergy,wind,fuelcell,battery NEDOproject(2001); Solarphotovoltaic,wind,biomassetc. Smartgrid34StoragebatterySupply&demandcontrolConcentratedpowersupplyTransmissionanddistributionnetwork ConsumerDistributedpowersupplySource;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 35Nuclearenergy36Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 37USelectricityproductioncostNuclearisthecheapestafterdepreciationoftheconstructioncostSource:http://worldnuclear.org/info/inf02.html38SourceT.Nagasaki December6,2010NewnuclearpowerprogramscontinueintheworldChina,Korea,Finland,France,USA,SouthAfrica,UAE,India,VietnamTurkey,SaudiArabia,Lithuaniaetc.NuclearpowerprograminChina39Advancednuclearpowerplantsstrengtheningthesafetyagainstlossofpowerandcoremeltdownaccident40Advancednuclearpowerplant,AP1000(Westinghouse/Toshiba)StrengtheningthesafetyagainstlossofACpowerandcoremeltdownaccidentMeltedcoreSource:Internationalsummerschoolofnuclearpowerplants,Tokaimura,August2009PassivecontainmentcoolingInvesselretentionofmeltedcore41In-Vessel Molten Core Retention by the External Reactor Vessel CoolingKorean Nuclear Power Plant, KPR1400Severe Accident Mitigation Features Source: Sang-Baik Kim The International Summer School of NPPs, July 28- Aug. 5, 2009, University of Tokyo, Tokai-mura, JapanReactor Vessel Molten core 42Summary VerysorryforFukushimaaccident. Protect/prepareagainstnaturaldisasters. FukushimaNPPsaregoingtobestabilized. DecontaminationandeconomicrestorationofFukushimaprefecturearethemostimportantinJapan. Preventsocio psychologicaleffectoflowlevelradiation.43 Oil,gasandcoalaremajorprimaryenergyfor250years.Itwillnotchangesoon. Globalwarmingisthechallengein21st century. Improvementanddevelopmentofadvancedpowertechnologiesaswellasenergysavingsandimprovementofefficienciesareimportantformeetingthechallenges. Nuclearpowerwill/shouldplayitsrole.44CoastalIndustrialComplexes:RisksandAntiseismicMeasures BlindSpotsinDisasterPreventionforEarthquakeswithaTokyoMetropolitanEpicenteropinionofProfessorM.HamadaofWaseda universitySource:M.Hamada http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/earthquake_110613.htmIndustrialcomplexesbuiltonreclaimedlandsNoantiliquefactionmeasuresformanyreclaimedlands(constructedmanyyearsago)HeavyoilmayflowintomarinewatersandthenspreadacrossTokyoBaybywindortidalcurrent.ThemarinetransportationinTokyoBaymaybebroughttoacompletehalt.12LNGthermalpowerplantsareinoperationinthecoastalareasalongTokyoBay.Thisparalyzesthethermalenergysupplyfollowingthenuclearenergysupply.PowerwillreachacrisissituationinTokyometropolitanarea45Thankyou16Waseda UniversityprofessorsexpressedcommentsonthegreateastJapanearthquakeatWasedaonline;http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/46