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  • NaturalDisastersandEnergy:NewFutureofPowerPlants

    YoshiakiOka,ProfessorCooperativeMajorinNuclearEnergy

    GraduateSchoolofAdvancedScienceandEngineeringWaseda University

    The10th JapanKoreaMillenniumForum,November910,2011,Yonsei University,Incheon,Korea

    1

  • Outline

    March11EarthquakeandTsunami Fukushimanuclearpowerplantaccident Energysources Globalwarming Renewablesandnewenergydevelopment Nuclearenergy Summary

    2

  • PropagationoftheearthquakeUnderestimatedmagnitude,sourceareaandsliplength

    InitiationfromB,thenpropagatedwestwardstoareaA,andfurthertotheNorthandSouthdowntoIbarakiCoalfiredandNuclearpowerplants(NPPs)wereshutdown.LossofexternalpowerofNPPs.

    [SOURCE]Gov.ReporttotheIAEA,June2011andA.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,20113

  • Tsunamiandwaveheight5to8metersupthrust ona180kmwideseabedresultedinamajortsunami

    Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2011_Tohoku_earthquake_observed_tsunami_heights_en.png4

  • SendaiportaftertsunamiBlacksmokecomingfromtheNipponoilrefinery

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami 5

  • FallenpowerpolesinIshinomaki

    Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fallen_power_poles_in_Ishinomaki.jpg 6

  • Earthquake and tsunami (summary)

    Earthquake:Magnitude;9,Duration;6minutes,Depth;32km,Maximumintensity;9,Peakacceleration;3.0G

    Tsunamiheight;upto40.5m Casualties:15,824deaths, 5,942injured, 3,847peoplemissing

    DisplacedpeoplebyTsunami:over300,000 Evacuatedresidentswithin20kmofFukushimanuclearpowerplants;140,000

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami 7

  • Electricity;RollingblackoutSeveralnuclearandcoalfiredpowerplantswentofflineaftertheearthquake.RollingblackoutofTEPCOfor2weeksfromMarch,11,2011.Nuclearpowerplantsgraduallywentofflineforperiodicinspectionandfailedtoobtainapprovalofrestartfromthelocalgovernment.(42unitsofflineamong53inJapaninOctober2011)DemandcontrolwillcontinueinthecomingwinterinTEPCO,KansaiandTohokuEP.Oilandgasimportincreasesandelectricitybillwillincrease.

    Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami

    NounifiednationalpowergridinJapanduetothegeologicdividebetween50Hzand60Hzsystem.

    8

  • Oilandgas

    CosmoOilexplosion,Chiba,Tokyobay

    Oilrefineriesweresetonfirebythequake.

    Oiltanksdamagedbytsunamiandflowedintothebay.SourceofbigfireofKesennuma,majorfishingport

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami

    http://www.ristex.jp/public/earthquake/project.html 9

  • 14NPPsalongthecoastallineaffectedbyTsunami

    [SOURCE]A.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,201110

  • [SOURCE]A.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,2011

    Fukushimasite1nuclearpowerplantsdamagedbytsunami

    11

  • Fukushimasite1nuclearpowerplantsdamagedbytsunamiandhydrogenexplosion

    [SOURCE]A.Omoto ANSAnnualMtg. June27,201112

  • Reactor building4F; Refueling floor

    Unit 1,3,4Hydrogen explosion

    ContainmentUnit 1,2,3Leakage

    Reactor pressure vesselUnit 1,2,3Bottom leakage

    Spent fuel pool: low water level

    Fukushima site 1, unit 1,2,3,4 Station blackout and Loss of ultimate heat sink: Loss of cooling of residual heat

    resulted in core meltdown accidents and hydrogen explosion.

    BWR(Boilingwaterreactor) 13

  • LandcontaminationandevacuationEvacuatedresidentswithin20km;140,000

    Source:http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/1750/2011/09/1750_092018.pdf,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Towns_evacuated_around_Fukushima_on_April_11th,_2011.png 14

  • SocioeconomicimpactoftheChernobylnuclearaccidentChernobylforumreport20032005);ShouldbeminimizedinFukushima

    Resettlementandlimitationsonagriculturalproductionhaveanegativeimpactontheeconomyoftheaffectedregions.(330,000peoplerelocated,116,000ofthemevacuatedimmediately.)

    Resettlementwas adeeplytraumaticexperience.Manyareunemployedandhavelittlecontrolovertheirownlives.Someolderresettlers mayneveradjust.

    Alargeproportionofskilled,educatedandentrepreneurialpeoplehavealsolefttheregion,hamperingthechancesforeconomicrecoveryandraisingtheriskofpoverty. Thepercentageofelderlyindividualsisabnormallyhigh.

    Thelargestimpactonindividuals isthementalhealthimpact.Psychologicaldistressanditsaftermathhashadaprofoundimpactonindividualandcommunitybehavior.Associatedwiththeseperceptionsisanexaggeratedsenseofthedangerstohealthofexposuretoradiation.

    Anxietyovertheeffectsofradiationonhealthshowsnosignofdiminishing.Indeed,itmayevenbespreadingbeyondtheaffectedareasintoawidesectionofthepopulation.Parentsmaybetransferringtheiranxietytotheirchildrenthroughexcessivelyprotectivecare.

    Asenseofvictimizationanddependencycreatedbygovernmentsocialprotectionpoliciesiswidespreadintheaffectedareas.

    Sourcehttp://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl.pdf pp3437

    Chernobylforum:IAEA,WHO,UNDP,FAO,UNEP,UNOCHA,UNSCEAR,WB,Belarus,Russia,Ukraine

    15

  • KnownAdverse Effects

    No knownAdverse Effects

    100 mSv

    A

    C

    B

    Pote

    ntia

    l Dam

    age

    to H

    ealth

    Radiation Dose [mSv]

    2.4 mSvAverage Yearly Exposurefrom Natural Causes

    Dose Causing ObservableAdverse Health Effects

    ReliableDatabase

    Area ofControversy

    Healtheffectoflowlevelradiation Acutehealtheffect

    occursabovethresholddose.

    NoacutehealtheffectobservedatFukushimaincludingTEPCOworkers.

    Latenthealtheffectisnotobservedatlowdose,below100mSv.

    Assumednothresholdlinearhypothesis;Sourceoffearofradiationandbigsocioeconomicproblems.

    Latenteffectwillbestudiedforlongperiod,butmaybeandhopefullynolatenteffectwillbeobservedinFukushimabecauseofthesuccessfulevacuation.

    Itisdifficulttoclarifythehealtheffectofhumanbeingatlowdosefromthepresentscience. 16

  • Whatsnecessary

    DecontaminationandeconomicrestorationofFukushimaprefecture

    Improvementofregulatorysystem Designimprovementcopingwithcoremeltdownaccidentandmitigatingitsenvironmentaleffects

    Comparativestudyofhealtheffectsatlowdoseofvariousriskssuchasradiation,chemicalproducts,etc.incollaborationofinternationalorganizations

    Separationofregulationandpromotion Shareoflessonslearnedintheworld Never,everagainanywhereintheworld

    17

  • Energysources

    18

  • Fossilfuelsaremajorprimaryenergysourcesinceindustrialrevolutionfor250years

    Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 19

  • Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 20

  • Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 21

  • JapanandKoreadependsonimportedenergysourcesevenFranceimports49%.

    Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html

    USenergy(basic)policy:Lessthan25%ofimportdependencefornationalsecurity

    22

  • Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 23

  • Primaryenergysource(summary) Energyisessentialtolifeandactivitiesofmankind. Energydemandwillgrowwiththedevelopmentofcountries inthe

    21st century. Energysecurityisimportantforthesecurityofthenation. Wars,battlesforoilsandgasoccurredandoccurringintheworld.

    Ex.2nd worldwar,Middleeast,Africa.(Nowarafter2nd worldwarineastAsiaisthereasonofitseconomicdevelopment.)

    Oil,gas,andcoalaremajorsourceofenergyafterindustrialrevolution.EvenFranceitis56%ofprimaryenergy.

    JapanandKoreaheavilydependonimportedprimaryenergysource.

    OilimportfrommiddleeastincreaseagaininJapan.Maysufferdoublepunchesfromincreaseofoilpriceanddecreaseofyen(exchangerate)inthefuture.

    24

  • Globalwarming

    25

  • Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 26

  • Thegreenbarsshowuncertaintyestimates

    Source:WikipediaGlobalwarming27

  • Temperaturerisein200009Comparedtoaveragetemperaturesrecordedbetween1951and1980

    Themostextremewarming,showninred,wasintheArctic

    Source:WikipediaGlobalwarming28

  • Source:WikipediaGlobalwarming29

  • CO2 emissionsintheworld

    China:20,USA;20%,Japan;4,Korea;1.7% Perperson;USA;18.4t/p,Japan;9t/p

    China;5t/p,India;1.25t/p EmissionofChinaandIndiawillincrease Kyotoprotocolcoversonly28%intheworld.

    30

  • CO2 EmissioninJapan

    direct enduser Powergeneration 32% Industrialprocess28% 34% Transportation 19% 19% Household 5% 14% Office 19% Energyconversion 2% 6%

    31

  • Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 32

  • Renewablesandnewenergydevelopment

    33

  • Developmentofrenewables/newenergytechnologiesinJapan

    Sunshineproject(19741992):Coal,geothermal,hydrogenenergy

    Moonlightproject(19781993);Energyconservation Newsunshineproject(19932000):Coalgasification,geothermal,photovoltaic,hydrogenenergy,wind,fuelcell,battery

    NEDOproject(2001); Solarphotovoltaic,wind,biomassetc. Smartgrid

    34

  • Storagebattery

    Supply&demandcontrol

    Concentratedpowersupply

    Transmissionanddistributionnetwork Consumer

    Distributedpowersupply

    Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 35

  • Nuclearenergy

    36

  • Source;http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 37

  • USelectricityproductioncostNuclearisthecheapestafterdepreciationoftheconstructioncost

    Source:http://worldnuclear.org/info/inf02.html38

  • SourceT.Nagasaki December6,2010

    NewnuclearpowerprogramscontinueintheworldChina,Korea,Finland,France,USA,SouthAfrica,UAE,India,Vietnam

    Turkey,SaudiArabia,Lithuaniaetc.

    NuclearpowerprograminChina

    39

  • Advancednuclearpowerplantsstrengtheningthesafetyagainstlossofpowerand

    coremeltdownaccident

    40

  • Advancednuclearpowerplant,AP1000(Westinghouse/Toshiba)

    StrengtheningthesafetyagainstlossofACpowerandcoremeltdownaccident

    Meltedcore

    Source:Internationalsummerschoolofnuclearpowerplants,Tokaimura,August2009

    Passivecontainmentcooling

    Invesselretentionofmeltedcore

    41

  • In-Vessel Molten Core Retention by the External Reactor Vessel Cooling

    Korean Nuclear Power Plant, KPR1400Severe Accident Mitigation Features

    Source: Sang-Baik Kim The International Summer School of NPPs, July 28- Aug. 5, 2009, University of Tokyo, Tokai-mura, Japan

    Reactor Vessel

    Molten core

    42

  • Summary

    VerysorryforFukushimaaccident. Protect/prepareagainstnaturaldisasters. FukushimaNPPsaregoingtobestabilized. DecontaminationandeconomicrestorationofFukushimaprefecturearethemostimportantinJapan.

    Preventsocio psychologicaleffectoflowlevelradiation.

    43

  • Oil,gasandcoalaremajorprimaryenergyfor250years.Itwillnotchangesoon.

    Globalwarmingisthechallengein21st century. Improvementanddevelopmentofadvancedpowertechnologiesaswellasenergysavingsandimprovementofefficienciesareimportantformeetingthechallenges.

    Nuclearpowerwill/shouldplayitsrole.

    44

  • CoastalIndustrialComplexes:RisksandAntiseismicMeasures BlindSpotsinDisasterPreventionforEarthquakeswithaTokyo

    MetropolitanEpicenteropinionofProfessorM.HamadaofWaseda university

    Source:M.Hamada http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/earthquake_110613.htm

    IndustrialcomplexesbuiltonreclaimedlandsNoantiliquefactionmeasuresformanyreclaimedlands(constructedmanyyearsago)HeavyoilmayflowintomarinewatersandthenspreadacrossTokyoBaybywindortidalcurrent.ThemarinetransportationinTokyoBaymaybebroughttoacompletehalt.12LNGthermalpowerplantsareinoperationinthecoastalareasalongTokyoBay.Thisparalyzesthethermalenergysupplyfollowingthenuclearenergysupply.PowerwillreachacrisissituationinTokyometropolitanarea

    45

  • Thankyou

    16Waseda UniversityprofessorsexpressedcommentsonthegreateastJapanearthquakeatWasedaonline;http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/

    46

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