Natural disaster pattern change

Klementina Zupan

May 2017

Images of droughts

and floods in

Slovenia in recent

years

2012

2007

2008

2014

What this lecture will cover?

short historical view of natural disasters

natural disasters versus technological disasaters- trends

some natural defense mechanisms

technological disasters triggered by natural disasters (natech)

disaster costs

3

Short historical overview

Mayan civilization

remains

Norwegian dynasty

remains in Greenland

Minoan civilization

destruction

Egyptian civilization

remains

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3551908/Were-Maya-devastated-TWO-

volcanoes-Double-eruption-sixth-century-caused-civilisation-s-Dark-Age.html

http://www.philipcoppens.com/edfu.html

http://www.bookofdaystales.com/tag/greenland/ http://www.explorecrete.com/archaeology/minoan-civilization-destruction.html

4

Short historical overview

When? more than 1000 years ago

What happened? a massive movement in tropical rainfall (El Nino)

Where? in China and Central America

Consequences? climate change led to the collapse of Tang dynasty

and to the extinction of the Mayan civilisation at

the same time.

What did Tang Dynasty

and Mayan civilization have in common?

http://www.chinahighlights.com/map/ancient-china-map/tang-dynasty-map.htm http://www.chinahighlights.com/map/ancient-china-map/tang-dynasty-map.htm

5

Year

Nu

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dNatural disasters vs. technological disasters

Natural disasters reported 1900-2016

www.em-dat

Year

Technological disasters reported 1900-2016

6

Natural disasters vs. technological disasters

The nature of disasters is changing rapidly.

• The number of people affected by disasters is rising.

• Natural disasters are becoming less deadly and more costly.

• Disasters don‘t differentiate between rich and poor countries.

• Developing countries suffer the greatest impact, followed by complex

humanitarian emergences.

7www.em-dat

Nu

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Year

Natural disasters trend

Two primary explanations for increasing

number of natural disasters each year:

• climate change and environmental

degradation (losses of natural protective

mechanisms such as mangroves,

dunes, wetlands…. )

• growing population and the increased

settlement in more vulnerable areas

8

Natural protective mechanisms- mangroves

• less than 0,4% of the world fores.

https://na.unep.net/geas/getUNEPPageWithArticleIDScript.php?article_id=103

• distinctive trees, remarkably tough

• complex salt filtration system to cope with salt water

• complex root system to deal with wave action

• adapted to the low oxygen conditions of waterlogged mud

• store fresh water in thick succulent leaves

• their natural habitat is up to 100 times saltier than other plants can tolerate

mainly between latitudes 25° N and 25° S

Mangrove seeds germinate while

still on the parent tree.https://reefs.com/2017/03/08/some-mangrove-inspiration/

Global mangrove forest distribution (red zones)

9

Natural protective mechanisms- mangrove

Important bulkhead against climate change:

• stabilize shorelines and improve water quality• protect coastal areas from erosion, storm surge and

tsunamis.

• due to their massive root systems are efficient at

dissipating wave energy.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Very dense forest

Low density forest

Dinstance from mangrove front (m)

Norm

aliz

ed

energ

y

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230942208_Surface_wave_propagation_in_mangrove_forests

wave

height

Wave atenuation due to mangrove trees.

10

Natural protective mechanisms- mangrove

Mangrove ecosystems lost at the rate 1% per year, in

some areas the rate may be from 2 to 8 % per year.

Anthropogenic threats:

• clearing

• over-exploitation (firewood, construction wood)

• aquaculture

• agriculture and urban development

Climate change threats:

• global temperature rise

• rising sea levels

• storms and natural disasters

• less sheltered by coral reefs killed by global warming

Solutions:

• careful mangrove restoration

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257369059_Coastal_engineering_and

_large-

scale_mangrove_destruction_in_Guyana_South_America_Averting_an_enviro

nmental_catastrophe_in_the_making/figures?lo=1

Sandy-silty shoreline is formed after clearing,

which requires hard defence structure (seawall

on the right)

11

Natural protective mechanisms- dunes

http://www.vims.edu/research/departments/physical/programs/ssp/beaches/index.php

Coastal areas in Virginia (red area)

Shore zone features along the shoreline (Virginia)

Beaches and dunes as protective mechanisms:

• filtration of water and smaller-sized particles

• protect the upland during storms

• protecting inland areas from coastal water

intrusion

• can reduce and absorb the energy from a wave

before it can impact upland structures (houses

and roads).

12http://www.snh.org.uk/publications/on-

line/heritagemanagement/erosion/appendix_1.8.shtml

http://www.mass.gov/eea/agencies/czm/program-areas/stormsmart-

coasts/stormsmart-properties/fs-6-fencing.html

Natural protective mechanisms- dunes

artificial dunes built at the base of an eroding bank

Anthropogenic threats:

• highly sensitive to many human activities

Climate change threats:

• coastal erosion and associated flooding

• storm events

Solutions:

• limited interaction with humans

• sand fencing installed along the shoreline

allowing plants to growhttps://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Coastal_erosion_-_geograph.org.uk_-_552090.jpg

Coastal erosion in east Scotland

Wetlands in the temperate zone

Natural protective mechanisms- wetlands

Wetlands play important roles in the environment:

• water purification and

• Increasing shoreline stability

Wetlands functions in relation to climate change:

• ability to sink carbon,

• ability to store and regulate water.

• have a beneficial effect on the microclimate

• summer cool the environment due to water evaporation.

http://www.cms.int/siberian-crane/en/page/habitat-protection

Wetlands in Saudi Arabia can reach 50 oCIn northeastern Siberia wetland temperatures can be −50°C.

http://www.arabnews.com/saudi-arabia/ksa-preserve-wetlands

http://erccolorado.net/projects_ftcollins.aspx

14

Natural protective mechanisms- wetlands

Since 1900 half of the world‘s wetlands have disappeared.

Anthropogenic threats :

• draining of wetlands for commercial development

• pollution in wetlands, affecting drinking water sources

• alien invasive species can upset the natural balance

• over 40,000 dams which alter the natural flow

Climate change threats:

• increases in temperature are causing polar ice to melt and sea levels to rise

• shallow wetlands being swamped

• other wetlands are being destroyed through drought

15

NATECH- natural disasters can trigger technological disasters

.

Natural disasters can:

can down power lines,

cause landslides

damage lifeline systems and

trigger hazardous materials releases

All over the world are many vulnerable

installations:

• close to rivers,

• located in earthquake prone areas, or

• subject to other kinds of natural hazards

Fire in Nippon Oil refinery on march

2011 after earthquake and tsunami

16

NATECH technological disasters triggered by natural disasters

Time and location of natural disaster NATECH- events

August 2002, floods in Czech Republic 40 tons of chlorine were released from Spolana

Works company in Naratovice

2003, 8.0 magnitude Tokachi-oki earthquake in

Japan

Caused severe damage of infrastructure na

triggered a major fire in the oil storage facilities

December 2004, Indian ocean tsunami in Banda

Aceh

Hazardus materials being released (fertilizers and

pesticides), including oli spills

2005 Hurricane Catrina in USA Two hundred hazardous materials releases from

fixed industrial facilities. One of the largest releases

occurred from the Murphy Oil refinery, where oil tank

was ruptured releasing 25000 barrels of oil.

May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake, China Release of ammonia and other hazardous materials.

March 2011 9.0 magnitude earthquake and

tsunami off the Pacific coast of Thoku in Japan

Earthquake forces initiate a chain events that

resulting in multiple fires and explosions which

completely destroyed 17 LPG storage tanks and

caused damage both onsite and offsite the rafinery.

In Nuclear Power Plant Fukushima, the tsunami

disabled the emergency generators that would

have provided power to control and operate the

pumps necessary to cool the reactors. The

insufficient cooling led to three nuclear meltdowns,

hydrogen-air chemical explosions, and the

release of radioactive material.

17

Natural disasters costs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

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storm erthquake flood drought climaterelated-others

36

31

25

4 4

Recorded economic damage according internationaldisaster database (%)

%

How much do disasters cost?

There is no single answer.

Even a single estimate of a single event

allows different interpretations.

Growing need to estimate how much

disasters cost in the past, and will cost in

the future.

www.em-dat

18

Conclusion

What do mangroves, dunes and wetlands have in common?

• They are natural protective mechanisms, which provide protection of the

environment from extreme weather events, however they are threaten by the

climate change and human acts.

• Loosing these natural protective mechanisms is affecting natural disaster

trends and their consequences.

What NATECH can cause?

• Natural disasters cause infrastructure faliure and, cascading failures, due to

interdependencies of critical infrastructures.

• They can increase the effects of natural disasters.

Why we should know the costs of natural disasters?

To ensure communities to compensate and that governments can budget

accurately for losses.