nato unclassified spontex 2011 2011, may 15th access to oceanographic watch and forecast report for...

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

SPONTEX 20112011, May 15th

Access to Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report

For a correct visualisation of this product, you must click on the green area for more details or on to enlarge the map.

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NATO UNCLASSIFIED


For a correct visualisation

of this product,

you must click on the green area

for more details

or on to enlarge the maps.

Access to Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report

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The Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report : - is an electronic document displaying and analysing oceanic conditions relevant for Anti-Submarine

Warfare, - is updated daily according to new available information, - includes products derived from ocean models.

Models

Content

Sea Surface Temperature

Sound Velocity Profiles

Mixed Layer Depth

Current

Thermocline layer thickness

Depth of Velocity Minimum

NATO UNCLASSIFIED


OCEAN MODEL

The model covers the Bay of Biscay with longitudes ranging from 11° W to 1° W and latitudes ranging from 45.5° N to 48° N. The model has a ~ 1.9 km horizontal resolution.

The model is forced at the surface by 3-hour ARPEGE derived fluxes and by daily river flow. Open boundary conditions are derived from the MERCATOR-Ocean model covering the North Atlantic ocean and from the Mog2D tidal model.

Results presented in this report include 3D tidal effects (tidal currents and internal tides).

3-days forecast is displayed.



Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



NATO UNCLASSIFIED




•Products derived from ocean model (daily, 3-days forecast)

Currents at 0m• 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H• 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

Sea surface temperature at 0m level• 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H• 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H

Mixed layer depth defined as the first velocity maximum depth • 6-hour period minimun and maximum values computed with 2-hour fields• 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H

Thermocline layer thickness defined between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline

• 6-hour period minimun and maximum values computed with 2-hour fields• 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H

Depth of the first velocity minimum beneath the thermocline• 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H• 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H

Sound velocity profile classes• 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H• 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



NATO UNCLASSIFIED


Current

Tomorrow D+2

Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves.Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days.Comparison and model’s validation : no data.Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



24 Z 30 Z 36 Z 42 Z 48 Z 60 Z 72 Z

D+3

Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED


CurrentModels

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



24 Z 30 Z 36 Z 42 Z 48 Z 60 Z 72 Z

Tomorrow D+2 D+3

Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves.Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days.Comparison and model’s validation : no data.Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED



Tomorrow D+2

30Z

36Z 42Z

Synopsis : anticyclonic conditions furthers SST’s warmering (by the south of the theater). Meso scale activity is still marked around 47N/009W while the cold tight band of water along the slope gets narrower northerly.Outlook : progressive warmering over whole area continues with « afternoon effect ».Comparison and model’s validation : no data

24Z

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



Product - Temperature at 0m.Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED



48Z 60Z

72Z

Tomorrow D+2

Tendancy : no significant change, the situation is settled with warmer waters in the south of the area and colder water along slope. The warmering continues above continental shelf. SST expected to exceed 15°C south 46,5N and east of 004W.

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



Product - Temperature at 0m.Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED


Mixed Layer Depth

Tomorrow morning D+3

Product – Depth of first maximum velocity in mixed layer depth.Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h

Synopsis : MDL ranges from 5 meters (minimun) to 40 meters (maximal value) for first step of 6 hours.Outlook : in the second step of 6 hours, maximal MLD expected to reach 40 m (north of 47N) while minimum value strongly decreases and disappears over whole theater (due to SST warmering).Comparison and model’s validation : no data.

D+2

Mix

ed la

yer

dep

th m

in a

nd

m

ax b

etw

een

24

to 3

0 Z

Mix

ed la

yer

dep

th m

in a

nd

m

ax b

etw

een

30

to 3

6 Z

Minimum Maximum

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



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Mixed Layer Depth

Outlook : MLD disappears due to warmering and « afternoon effect » in the first part of afternnon. In the evening, the area of disappearance remains south of 47N.

Tomorrow morning D+3D+2

Mix

ed la

yer

dep

th m

in a

nd

m

ax b

etw

een

36

to 4

2 Z

Mix

ed la

yer

dep

th m

in a

nd

m

ax b

etw

een

42

to 4

8 Z

Minimum Maximum

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth




NATO UNCLASSIFIED


Mixed Layer Depth

D+3Tomorrow morning D+2

Tendancy : MLD temporary disappears in the afternoon due to « afternoon effect ».

48Z 60Z

72Z

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth




NATO UNCLASSIFIED



Product – Layer between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline.Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72hModels

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth




Th

erm

ocli

ne

laye

r th

ick

nes

s m

in /

max

bet

wee

n 2

4 to

30

ZT

her

moc

lin

e la

yer

thic

kn

ess

min

/ m

ax b

etw

een

30

to 3

6 Z

Minimum Maximum

Synopsis : maximal values of thermocline layer thickness are above plain and slope and scalling from 20 to 80 meters, moreover TLT remains at its minimal above shelf (around 20 meters, without a large temporally variability).Outlook : a slight tickening of TLT is expected to begin in the second step of 6 hours (extension of the « 80 meters » area).Comparison and model’s validation : no data

NATO UNCLASSIFIED


Thermocline layer thicknessModels

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth




Th

erm

ocli

ne

laye

r th

ick

nes

s m

in /

max

bet

wee

n 3

6 to

42

ZT

her

moc

lin

e la

yer

thic

kn

ess

min

/ m

ax b

etw

een

42

to 4

8 Z

Minimum Maximum

Product – Layer between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline.Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h

Synopsis : maximal values remain above abyssal plain and slope (between 20 and 80 meters) while minimun values situated above shelf (around 20 meters).Outlook : no significant change.Comparison and model’s validation : no data

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48Z 60Z

72Z


Tendancy : TLT ranges from 20 to 80 meters (from shelf to abyssal plain).

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth




Product – Layer between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline.Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h

NATO UNCLASSIFIED



Tomorrow D+2

24Z 30Z

36Z 42Z

Synopsis : Depth of first Velocity Minimum (DVM) remains steady around 60-100m over the period and tends to disappear around the internal tide generation area (near slope).Outlook : No significant change expected.Comparison and model’s validation : no data

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



Product – Depth of first velocity minimum. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED



Tomorrow D+2

48Z 60Z

72Z

Tendancy : Internal tide effect is mainly located over deep waters and tends to strenghten over the continental slope while thermocline variability is not so significant above the shelf.

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



Product – Depth of first velocity minimum. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED



Tomorrow D+2

Product – Sound velocity profiles classes. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

24Z 30Z

36Z 42Z

No sound velocity minimum

Sound velocityminimum

Mike November Mike November India

Dep

th

Sound velocity

Surfduct

Sound velocity

min V min V

Surfduct

Sound velocity

Synopsis : mainly Mike profiles over whole area. Above shelf, both Mike and November profiles are represented.

Outlook : November profiles above slope and continental shelf are expected from the afternoon (combinated action of internal waves and SST’s warmering). Comparison and model’s validation : no data

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



NATO UNCLASSIFIED



Tomorrow D+2

48Z 60Z

72Z

No sound velocity minimum

Sound velocityminimum

Mike November Mike November India

Dep

th

Sound velocity

Surfduct

Sound velocity

min V min V

Surfduct

Sound velocity

Tendancy : Mike profiles are in majority, with temporary November profiles above slope and continental shelf in the afternoon.

Models

Content

Products

Current



Mixed Layer Depth



Product – Sound velocity profiles classes. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

nato unclassified spontex 2011 2011, may 15th access to oceanographic watch and forecast report for...

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