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8/18/2019 Nations in Transit 2016 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nations-in-transit-2016 1/27 NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

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Page 1: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 127

NATIONSIN TRANSIT2016

Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 227

CONTENTS

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact 983089

Turning o Xenophobia in Cenral Europe 983094

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis 983096

Ukrainersquos Pivoal Year 983089983088

The EUrsquos Dilemma in he Balkans 983089983089

From Dicaorship o Dynasy 983089983094

Elecions 983090983088983089983094 983089983096

Map of Regime Types 983089983090

Methodology 983090983088

Category and Democracy Score Summary 983090983089

Democracy Score History by Region 983090983090

Average Regional Category Scores 983090983091

ON THE COVER

Hungarian soldiers wih barbed-wire encing on he border

wih Slovenia in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 Photo by Jure Makovec

RESEARCH AND EDITORIAL TEAM

Nae Schenkkan is projec direcor o Nations in Transit Senior

Researcher Zselyke Csaky and Research Associae Anna Bar

conribued o his bookle

2

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 327

While illiberal naionalism rose in Europe wih Cenral

European leaders closing borders and denounc-

ing reugees and migrans as a hrea o he naion

financial pressures brough abou by alling oil prices

and worker remitances undermined he economies

o Russia and mos ormer Sovie saes The risk is

ha hese separae developmens could convergewih he collapse o Eurasian saes adding o Europersquos

growing lis o roubles

Since 983089983097983097983093 Nations in Transit has racked he prog-

ress and regression o democracy in Cenral Europe

he Balkans and Eurasia Daa rom he las decade

presen a grim porrai o decline Weighed or popu-

laion he average Democracy Score in he region has

declined or 983089983090 years in a row A sark reurn o con-

solidaed auhoriarianism in Russia which accouns

or 983091983093 percen o he regionrsquos populaion has been

he op driver o he decline Bu he problem goes

well beyond Russia The region has had more declines

han improvemens every year since 983090983088983088983095 No a

single subregionmdashCenral Europe he Balkans or Eur-

asiamdashhas improved overall since 983090983088983089983089 These rends

have now coalesced ino undamenal hreas o he

regional order ha bode ill or 983090983088983089983094 and beyond

Europe in questionEuropean insiuions have aced a growing crisis o

confidence since 983090983088983088983096 riggered firs by he ongoing

sruggle o wind down he eurozone deb crisis Buhe increased flow o reugees and migrans rom he

Middle Eas and Norh Arica in 983090983088983089983093 presened he

European Union and is leading governmens wih an

emergency ha could no be conained wih hal-

measures or delay and he disjoined response hey

offered was plainly inadequae

Europersquos disuniy lef he field open or populiss

Leading poliicians in Cenral Europemdashbacked by

some counerpars in Wesern Europemdashembraced xe-

nophobia and naionalism posiioning hemselves as

proecors o heir counriesrsquo Chrisian ideniy agains

an ldquoinvasionrdquo o Muslims The challenge o Europe ha

or years has been embodied by he brazen illiberal-

ism o Hungaryrsquos Vikor Orbaacuten is no longer concen-

raed in a single counry i is becoming he preerred

Nations in Transit 2016Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

Europe and Eurasia ended 983090983088983089983093 mired in institutional and economic

crises that threatened both the survival of the European Union and

the stability of Eurasiarsquos entrenched dictatorships

wwwreedomhouseorg 1

by Nae Schenkkan

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427

approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer

983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-

lapse o he union is now widely discussed

Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-

sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has

declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover

he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and

balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in

983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094

In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and

Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir

advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-

weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-

ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress

Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and

raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess

in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has

salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea

and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early

elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime

Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces

sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he

blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-

iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new

chapers in is accession negoiaions and received

a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-

rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089

Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he

Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and

is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in

983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all

he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae

are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o

heir level o commimen o EU sandards

Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20

6

4

2

0

12

10

8

18

16

14

Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score

Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score

6

4

4

5

5

7

6

Europersquos disuniy lef he field

open or populiss

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

2

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527

Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region

he collapse in global commodiy prices especially

oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly

desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he

perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-

san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-

den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor

Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac

ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou

over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy

and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he

region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-

rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices

Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down

weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund

(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency

evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou

983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy

could come o a dramaic end

The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih

measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens

heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy

since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened

in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-

ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-

ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o

grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such

as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions

spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough

imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian

effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more

desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more

disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o

he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o

back Presiden Bashar al-Assad

Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions

o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-

ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is

leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov

was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden

Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-

firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase

conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a

crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked

in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos

prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova

o seven and a hal years in prison

Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos

Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie

ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild

criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober

in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed

by he ac ha vial sae insiuions

have been hollowed ou over decades

Normalized subregional Democracy Scores

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION

rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16

-040

-035

-030

-025

-020

-015

-010

-005

000

005

010

015

020

CentralEurope

Balkan

Eurasia

Averagechange

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

3

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES

COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO

Albania 414

Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368

Kosovo 507 (514)

Macedonia 429 (407)

Montenegro 393 (389)

Serbia 375 (368)

Bulgaria 325 (329)

Czech Republic 221

Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)

Latvia 207

Lithuania 232 (236)

Poland 232 (221)

Romania 346

Slovakia 261 (264)

Slovenia 200 (193)

Armenia 536

Azerbaijan 686 (675)

Belarus 664 (671)

Georgia 461 (464)

Kazakhstan 661

Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)

Moldova 489 (486)

Russia 650 (646)

Tajikistan 654 (639)

Turkmenistan 693

Ukraine 468 (475)

Uzbekistan 693

B A L K A N S

C E N T R A L E U R O P E

E U R A S I A

Decline Improvemen Unchanged

The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing

the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093

Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance

LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

4

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 2: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 227

CONTENTS

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact 983089

Turning o Xenophobia in Cenral Europe 983094

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis 983096

Ukrainersquos Pivoal Year 983089983088

The EUrsquos Dilemma in he Balkans 983089983089

From Dicaorship o Dynasy 983089983094

Elecions 983090983088983089983094 983089983096

Map of Regime Types 983089983090

Methodology 983090983088

Category and Democracy Score Summary 983090983089

Democracy Score History by Region 983090983090

Average Regional Category Scores 983090983091

ON THE COVER

Hungarian soldiers wih barbed-wire encing on he border

wih Slovenia in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 Photo by Jure Makovec

RESEARCH AND EDITORIAL TEAM

Nae Schenkkan is projec direcor o Nations in Transit Senior

Researcher Zselyke Csaky and Research Associae Anna Bar

conribued o his bookle

2

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 327

While illiberal naionalism rose in Europe wih Cenral

European leaders closing borders and denounc-

ing reugees and migrans as a hrea o he naion

financial pressures brough abou by alling oil prices

and worker remitances undermined he economies

o Russia and mos ormer Sovie saes The risk is

ha hese separae developmens could convergewih he collapse o Eurasian saes adding o Europersquos

growing lis o roubles

Since 983089983097983097983093 Nations in Transit has racked he prog-

ress and regression o democracy in Cenral Europe

he Balkans and Eurasia Daa rom he las decade

presen a grim porrai o decline Weighed or popu-

laion he average Democracy Score in he region has

declined or 983089983090 years in a row A sark reurn o con-

solidaed auhoriarianism in Russia which accouns

or 983091983093 percen o he regionrsquos populaion has been

he op driver o he decline Bu he problem goes

well beyond Russia The region has had more declines

han improvemens every year since 983090983088983088983095 No a

single subregionmdashCenral Europe he Balkans or Eur-

asiamdashhas improved overall since 983090983088983089983089 These rends

have now coalesced ino undamenal hreas o he

regional order ha bode ill or 983090983088983089983094 and beyond

Europe in questionEuropean insiuions have aced a growing crisis o

confidence since 983090983088983088983096 riggered firs by he ongoing

sruggle o wind down he eurozone deb crisis Buhe increased flow o reugees and migrans rom he

Middle Eas and Norh Arica in 983090983088983089983093 presened he

European Union and is leading governmens wih an

emergency ha could no be conained wih hal-

measures or delay and he disjoined response hey

offered was plainly inadequae

Europersquos disuniy lef he field open or populiss

Leading poliicians in Cenral Europemdashbacked by

some counerpars in Wesern Europemdashembraced xe-

nophobia and naionalism posiioning hemselves as

proecors o heir counriesrsquo Chrisian ideniy agains

an ldquoinvasionrdquo o Muslims The challenge o Europe ha

or years has been embodied by he brazen illiberal-

ism o Hungaryrsquos Vikor Orbaacuten is no longer concen-

raed in a single counry i is becoming he preerred

Nations in Transit 2016Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

Europe and Eurasia ended 983090983088983089983093 mired in institutional and economic

crises that threatened both the survival of the European Union and

the stability of Eurasiarsquos entrenched dictatorships

wwwreedomhouseorg 1

by Nae Schenkkan

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427

approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer

983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-

lapse o he union is now widely discussed

Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-

sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has

declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover

he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and

balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in

983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094

In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and

Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir

advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-

weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-

ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress

Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and

raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess

in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has

salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea

and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early

elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime

Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces

sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he

blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-

iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new

chapers in is accession negoiaions and received

a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-

rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089

Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he

Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and

is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in

983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all

he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae

are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o

heir level o commimen o EU sandards

Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20

6

4

2

0

12

10

8

18

16

14

Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score

Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score

6

4

4

5

5

7

6

Europersquos disuniy lef he field

open or populiss

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

2

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527

Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region

he collapse in global commodiy prices especially

oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly

desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he

perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-

san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-

den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor

Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac

ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou

over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy

and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he

region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-

rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices

Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down

weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund

(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency

evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou

983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy

could come o a dramaic end

The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih

measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens

heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy

since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened

in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-

ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-

ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o

grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such

as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions

spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough

imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian

effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more

desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more

disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o

he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o

back Presiden Bashar al-Assad

Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions

o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-

ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is

leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov

was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden

Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-

firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase

conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a

crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked

in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos

prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova

o seven and a hal years in prison

Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos

Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie

ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild

criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober

in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed

by he ac ha vial sae insiuions

have been hollowed ou over decades

Normalized subregional Democracy Scores

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION

rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16

-040

-035

-030

-025

-020

-015

-010

-005

000

005

010

015

020

CentralEurope

Balkan

Eurasia

Averagechange

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

3

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES

COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO

Albania 414

Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368

Kosovo 507 (514)

Macedonia 429 (407)

Montenegro 393 (389)

Serbia 375 (368)

Bulgaria 325 (329)

Czech Republic 221

Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)

Latvia 207

Lithuania 232 (236)

Poland 232 (221)

Romania 346

Slovakia 261 (264)

Slovenia 200 (193)

Armenia 536

Azerbaijan 686 (675)

Belarus 664 (671)

Georgia 461 (464)

Kazakhstan 661

Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)

Moldova 489 (486)

Russia 650 (646)

Tajikistan 654 (639)

Turkmenistan 693

Ukraine 468 (475)

Uzbekistan 693

B A L K A N S

C E N T R A L E U R O P E

E U R A S I A

Decline Improvemen Unchanged

The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing

the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093

Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance

LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

4

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 3: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 327

While illiberal naionalism rose in Europe wih Cenral

European leaders closing borders and denounc-

ing reugees and migrans as a hrea o he naion

financial pressures brough abou by alling oil prices

and worker remitances undermined he economies

o Russia and mos ormer Sovie saes The risk is

ha hese separae developmens could convergewih he collapse o Eurasian saes adding o Europersquos

growing lis o roubles

Since 983089983097983097983093 Nations in Transit has racked he prog-

ress and regression o democracy in Cenral Europe

he Balkans and Eurasia Daa rom he las decade

presen a grim porrai o decline Weighed or popu-

laion he average Democracy Score in he region has

declined or 983089983090 years in a row A sark reurn o con-

solidaed auhoriarianism in Russia which accouns

or 983091983093 percen o he regionrsquos populaion has been

he op driver o he decline Bu he problem goes

well beyond Russia The region has had more declines

han improvemens every year since 983090983088983088983095 No a

single subregionmdashCenral Europe he Balkans or Eur-

asiamdashhas improved overall since 983090983088983089983089 These rends

have now coalesced ino undamenal hreas o he

regional order ha bode ill or 983090983088983089983094 and beyond

Europe in questionEuropean insiuions have aced a growing crisis o

confidence since 983090983088983088983096 riggered firs by he ongoing

sruggle o wind down he eurozone deb crisis Buhe increased flow o reugees and migrans rom he

Middle Eas and Norh Arica in 983090983088983089983093 presened he

European Union and is leading governmens wih an

emergency ha could no be conained wih hal-

measures or delay and he disjoined response hey

offered was plainly inadequae

Europersquos disuniy lef he field open or populiss

Leading poliicians in Cenral Europemdashbacked by

some counerpars in Wesern Europemdashembraced xe-

nophobia and naionalism posiioning hemselves as

proecors o heir counriesrsquo Chrisian ideniy agains

an ldquoinvasionrdquo o Muslims The challenge o Europe ha

or years has been embodied by he brazen illiberal-

ism o Hungaryrsquos Vikor Orbaacuten is no longer concen-

raed in a single counry i is becoming he preerred

Nations in Transit 2016Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

Europe and Eurasia ended 983090983088983089983093 mired in institutional and economic

crises that threatened both the survival of the European Union and

the stability of Eurasiarsquos entrenched dictatorships

wwwreedomhouseorg 1

by Nae Schenkkan

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427

approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer

983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-

lapse o he union is now widely discussed

Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-

sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has

declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover

he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and

balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in

983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094

In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and

Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir

advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-

weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-

ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress

Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and

raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess

in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has

salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea

and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early

elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime

Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces

sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he

blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-

iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new

chapers in is accession negoiaions and received

a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-

rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089

Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he

Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and

is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in

983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all

he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae

are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o

heir level o commimen o EU sandards

Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20

6

4

2

0

12

10

8

18

16

14

Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score

Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score

6

4

4

5

5

7

6

Europersquos disuniy lef he field

open or populiss

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

2

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527

Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region

he collapse in global commodiy prices especially

oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly

desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he

perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-

san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-

den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor

Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac

ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou

over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy

and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he

region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-

rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices

Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down

weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund

(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency

evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou

983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy

could come o a dramaic end

The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih

measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens

heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy

since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened

in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-

ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-

ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o

grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such

as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions

spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough

imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian

effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more

desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more

disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o

he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o

back Presiden Bashar al-Assad

Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions

o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-

ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is

leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov

was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden

Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-

firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase

conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a

crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked

in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos

prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova

o seven and a hal years in prison

Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos

Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie

ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild

criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober

in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed

by he ac ha vial sae insiuions

have been hollowed ou over decades

Normalized subregional Democracy Scores

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION

rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16

-040

-035

-030

-025

-020

-015

-010

-005

000

005

010

015

020

CentralEurope

Balkan

Eurasia

Averagechange

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

3

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES

COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO

Albania 414

Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368

Kosovo 507 (514)

Macedonia 429 (407)

Montenegro 393 (389)

Serbia 375 (368)

Bulgaria 325 (329)

Czech Republic 221

Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)

Latvia 207

Lithuania 232 (236)

Poland 232 (221)

Romania 346

Slovakia 261 (264)

Slovenia 200 (193)

Armenia 536

Azerbaijan 686 (675)

Belarus 664 (671)

Georgia 461 (464)

Kazakhstan 661

Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)

Moldova 489 (486)

Russia 650 (646)

Tajikistan 654 (639)

Turkmenistan 693

Ukraine 468 (475)

Uzbekistan 693

B A L K A N S

C E N T R A L E U R O P E

E U R A S I A

Decline Improvemen Unchanged

The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing

the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093

Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance

LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

4

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 4: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427

approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer

983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-

lapse o he union is now widely discussed

Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-

sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has

declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover

he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and

balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in

983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094

In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and

Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir

advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-

weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-

ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress

Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and

raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess

in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has

salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea

and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early

elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime

Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces

sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he

blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-

iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new

chapers in is accession negoiaions and received

a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-

rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089

Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he

Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and

is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in

983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all

he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae

are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o

heir level o commimen o EU sandards

Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20

6

4

2

0

12

10

8

18

16

14

Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score

Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score

6

4

4

5

5

7

6

Europersquos disuniy lef he field

open or populiss

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

2

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527

Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region

he collapse in global commodiy prices especially

oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly

desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he

perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-

san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-

den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor

Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac

ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou

over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy

and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he

region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-

rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices

Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down

weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund

(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency

evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou

983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy

could come o a dramaic end

The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih

measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens

heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy

since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened

in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-

ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-

ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o

grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such

as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions

spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough

imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian

effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more

desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more

disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o

he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o

back Presiden Bashar al-Assad

Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions

o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-

ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is

leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov

was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden

Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-

firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase

conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a

crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked

in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos

prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova

o seven and a hal years in prison

Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos

Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie

ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild

criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober

in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed

by he ac ha vial sae insiuions

have been hollowed ou over decades

Normalized subregional Democracy Scores

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION

rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16

-040

-035

-030

-025

-020

-015

-010

-005

000

005

010

015

020

CentralEurope

Balkan

Eurasia

Averagechange

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

3

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES

COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO

Albania 414

Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368

Kosovo 507 (514)

Macedonia 429 (407)

Montenegro 393 (389)

Serbia 375 (368)

Bulgaria 325 (329)

Czech Republic 221

Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)

Latvia 207

Lithuania 232 (236)

Poland 232 (221)

Romania 346

Slovakia 261 (264)

Slovenia 200 (193)

Armenia 536

Azerbaijan 686 (675)

Belarus 664 (671)

Georgia 461 (464)

Kazakhstan 661

Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)

Moldova 489 (486)

Russia 650 (646)

Tajikistan 654 (639)

Turkmenistan 693

Ukraine 468 (475)

Uzbekistan 693

B A L K A N S

C E N T R A L E U R O P E

E U R A S I A

Decline Improvemen Unchanged

The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing

the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093

Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance

LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

4

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 5: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527

Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region

he collapse in global commodiy prices especially

oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly

desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he

perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-

san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-

den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor

Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac

ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou

over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy

and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he

region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-

rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices

Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down

weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund

(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency

evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou

983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy

could come o a dramaic end

The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih

measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens

heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy

since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened

in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-

ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-

ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o

grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such

as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions

spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough

imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian

effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more

desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more

disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o

he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o

back Presiden Bashar al-Assad

Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions

o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-

ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is

leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov

was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden

Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-

firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase

conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a

crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked

in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos

prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova

o seven and a hal years in prison

Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos

Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie

ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild

criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober

in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-

Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed

by he ac ha vial sae insiuions

have been hollowed ou over decades

Normalized subregional Democracy Scores

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION

rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16

-040

-035

-030

-025

-020

-015

-010

-005

000

005

010

015

020

CentralEurope

Balkan

Eurasia

Averagechange

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

3

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES

COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO

Albania 414

Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368

Kosovo 507 (514)

Macedonia 429 (407)

Montenegro 393 (389)

Serbia 375 (368)

Bulgaria 325 (329)

Czech Republic 221

Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)

Latvia 207

Lithuania 232 (236)

Poland 232 (221)

Romania 346

Slovakia 261 (264)

Slovenia 200 (193)

Armenia 536

Azerbaijan 686 (675)

Belarus 664 (671)

Georgia 461 (464)

Kazakhstan 661

Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)

Moldova 489 (486)

Russia 650 (646)

Tajikistan 654 (639)

Turkmenistan 693

Ukraine 468 (475)

Uzbekistan 693

B A L K A N S

C E N T R A L E U R O P E

E U R A S I A

Decline Improvemen Unchanged

The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing

the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093

Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance

LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

4

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 6: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES

COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO

Albania 414

Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368

Kosovo 507 (514)

Macedonia 429 (407)

Montenegro 393 (389)

Serbia 375 (368)

Bulgaria 325 (329)

Czech Republic 221

Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)

Latvia 207

Lithuania 232 (236)

Poland 232 (221)

Romania 346

Slovakia 261 (264)

Slovenia 200 (193)

Armenia 536

Azerbaijan 686 (675)

Belarus 664 (671)

Georgia 461 (464)

Kazakhstan 661

Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)

Moldova 489 (486)

Russia 650 (646)

Tajikistan 654 (639)

Turkmenistan 693

Ukraine 468 (475)

Uzbekistan 693

B A L K A N S

C E N T R A L E U R O P E

E U R A S I A

Decline Improvemen Unchanged

The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing

the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093

Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance

LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

4

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 7: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727

age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic

ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he

IMF is in alks o prop up he economy

Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope

Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih

he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying

he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-

ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-

ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens

have remained firm in making assisance condiional

on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue

les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher

embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he

op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid

mus no become a blank check or is leaders The

same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies

sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over

he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks

and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion

In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile

cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day

level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized

sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum

Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es

o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-

schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-

esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is

disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around

Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process

was open enough ha his pary could no secure a

majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-

er in he Balkans or years made some progress on

insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis

beween he opposiion and governmen brough he

parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening

o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094

Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied

Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash

build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland

I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed

o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or

heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be

heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long

pas heir ime on he poliical sage

Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-

able mechanisms wih enough power o address

undamenally supranaional issues or waching as

individual member saes ake apar he union piece

by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih

Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih

inernaional law By graning accession progress o

Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined

is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-

mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho

unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional

law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be

winning

Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion

here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good

governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-

cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-

bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion

and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania

o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he

EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland

show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin

he bloc

Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done

an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in

Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy

or susaining democraizaion in he region The

decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and

he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is

responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas

The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU

and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and

freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize

he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely

he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks

and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking

US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal

aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand

corrupion and illiberalism a home

The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and

reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed

o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

5

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 8: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827

In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished

hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion

and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-

pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-

ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem

solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he

Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland

and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-

rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-

ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades

VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu

he facual poin is ha all he

erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-

graed o he European Unionrdquo

Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-

oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o

score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-

lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o

European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral

European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-

phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir

posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary

poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences

MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being

organized by he Muslim Broh-

erhood using financial means

from a number of saeshellip The

Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-

rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a

growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo

The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries

share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa

o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088

or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in

Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia

and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-

cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir

populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-

Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe

ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism

or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz

pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in

opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical

discourse in boh counries

ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian

counry we canno olerae

an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088

Muslim immigrans who would

like o sar building mosques

all over our land and rying o change he naure

culure and values o he saerdquo

Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries

Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous

in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey

provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech

presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader

Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion

o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a

significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-

back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains

he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope

or he region

JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of

parasites and protozoa which hellip

while not dangerous in the or-

ganisms of these people could

be dangerous hererdquo

The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders

is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified

acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on

liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have

also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-

cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-

raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed

rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin

proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as

an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

6

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 9: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927

Hungary drives the decline

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latvia

EstoniaSlovenia

Czech Republic

Poland

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10 Regime Type

Consolidated

Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated

Democracy (SCD)

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

7

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 10: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027

Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis

A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil

prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced

hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-

ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES

2013 2014 2015

Source World Bank

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Armenia

GeorgiaAzerbaijan

Moldova

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

PERCENTAGE OF

REGIONAL GDP

74

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

8

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 11: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127

Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013

$20

$30

$110

$120

200

100

0

180

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar

SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL

UAH

GEL

AZN

KGS

TJS

KZT

BYR

RUB

MDL

Brent Oil Price

Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks

201520142013

ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan

REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR

Percent decline 2014-2015

Millions of USD

0

$1000

$2000

$3000

$4000

$5000

$6000

$7000

-70

-75

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

9

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 12: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227

Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year

The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when

he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced

an associaion agreemen wih he European Union

All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry

oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on

he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how

Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in

he official accession process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Corruption

JudicialFrameworkand Independence

Local Democratic

Governance

National

DemocraticGovernance

IndependentMedia

Civil Society

Electoral Process

Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates

How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union

While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o

EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-

ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial

candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen

media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic

governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-

pendence and naional democraic governance wih

he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen

insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas

remain under occupaion

Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-

ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he

judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy

Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen

expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could

sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos

office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-

onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he

counry is o reain US and European suppor

Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which

includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088

percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b

implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h

need or complex consiuional changes o undergird

i These amendmens were submited o he Con-

siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In

addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion

such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-

man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he

proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence

during he revoluion

The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching

Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he

poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-

mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or

economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona

Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he

nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-

ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing

corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress

coninues

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU

Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

10

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 13: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327

The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans

Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094

years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-

pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he

appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process

Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and

Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-

orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih

he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where

i was in 983090983088983088983092

The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance

beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans

and pressing or convergence wih European norms

Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu

in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he

hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes

as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he

Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o

naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy

has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an

-03

-02

-01

00

01

02

03

04

05

Average

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Kosovo

Croatia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Albania

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i

is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible

wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage

ha Dayon encourages

The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or

membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-

naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-

sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made

some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular

inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example

o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing

atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly

hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU

visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like

Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue

In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical

srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook

heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter

choice

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS

Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

11

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 14: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427

wwwfreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

13

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

12

The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic

development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy

Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the

2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration

from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime

types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-

consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECH REP

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBANIAKOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BOSNIA amp HERZ

HUNGARY

SLOVENIACROATIA

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016

SURVEY FINDINGS

Regime Type

Consolidated Democracy (CD)

Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)

Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)

Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)

Total

7

6

6

3

7

29

No of countries

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 15: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527

The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial

in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he

able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-

ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer

o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and

reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing

name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-

ing o accession alks

In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels

dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions

hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-

sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep

more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah

o challenge him when he denounced is suppor

or independen media Cooperaion on managing

reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional

negoiaing power wih he EU

Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has

effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino

NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-

cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no

progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion

bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-

governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović

hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu

hey were unsuccessul

Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen

Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po

enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen

raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of

migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-

able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde

pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes

counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment

MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia

58

50

61

29

40

51

TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092

Source World Ban

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

14

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 16: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627

MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I

is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha

made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union

As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he

spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May

asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all

o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed

or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom

Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled

by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no

depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory

In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding

all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o

originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be

reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom

he Balkans shrunk o a rickle

By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy

o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially

derided had become he norm across he EU as he union

ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen

and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia

announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared

building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-

ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o

is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring

Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing

EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou

is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan

counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning

abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is

increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU

Montenegro

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Macedonia

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

DEC

NOV

OCT

SEP

AUG

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APR

MAR

FEB

2015 JAN

Other

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Balkans

NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Source EurostatSource Eurostat

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

15

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 17: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727

served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore

sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan

Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry

Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091

Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o

Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae

holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-

glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he

counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe

983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan

wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion

Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o

he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional

Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093

Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet

Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Kazakh-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Daugher Dari-

ga Nazarbayeva has

served as a lawmaker

and depuy speaker o

he parliamenrsquos lower

house She became

depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also

an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev

From Dictatorship to Dynasty

Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power Prime

Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088

Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096

Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash

983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash

presen

Family According o

Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina

Tikhonova married Kirill

Shamalov a vice

presiden a he gas and

perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close

Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092

Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o

Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh

an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high

posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping

o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is

campus

Source Reuters

Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)

Years in power Presi-

den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen

Family Lukashenka

has wo sons wih his

esranged wie Galina

Lukashenka Vikor

and Dmiriy Vikor is

reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged

in overseeing Belarusrsquos

lucraive erilizer

expors while Dmiriy

is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors

Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-

ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when

he was jus our years old He has atended meeings

wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme

nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren

Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden

Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol

Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus

Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-

om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio

people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and

983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have

enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

16

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 18: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827

Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)

Years in power head

o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092

Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-

en

Family Rahmonrsquos

daugher Ozoda

Emomali previously

firs depuy oreign

miniser was appoin-

ed her aherrsquos chie

o saff in January

983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy

chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon

appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali

as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093

Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and

served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council

and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion

Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns

he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum

plan TALCO

Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos

consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher

son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos

nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax

service in his naive Khalon Province

Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus

Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)

Years in power Firs

Secreary o he

Communis Pary o

Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089

Presiden o Uzbeki-

san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen

Family Karimovrsquos

eldes daugherGulnara Karimova

has held several dip-

lomaic posiions in-

cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva

and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a

businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored

o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has

been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par

o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused

o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o

Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor

Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva

is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head

o several major chariies She and her husband have

purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in

Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French

websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-

errdquo She los he case

Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)

New York Times Daily Mail

Years

in power

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IlhamAliyev

AlyaksandrLukashenka

IslamKarimov

EmomaliRahmon

VladimirPutin

GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow

NursultanNazarbayev

27 years

10 years

16 years

24 years

27 years

22 years

13 years

EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD

Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

17

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 19: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927

Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen

Family Alhough

Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly

has appeared alongside

his grandaher on sae

elevision several imes

here is also specula-

ion ha he presiden is

grooming his son Serdar

o succeed him

Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty

Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)

Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen

FamilyAliyev has been

married o Mehriban Ali-

yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has

served as he presiden o

he Heydar Aliyev Founda-

ion since is creaion in

983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson

o he ruling New Azerbai-

jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen

since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a

longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he

Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was

chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093

European Games in Baku

The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and

Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real

esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone

bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092

million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-

ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as

well as wo mounain resors

The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091

billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-

diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-

ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors

Source OCCRP

April

Serbia early parliamentaryelections

Prime Miniser Aleksandar

Vučić has called early elec-

ions despie his governmen

having an absolue majoriy

in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are

needed o mainain momenum or reorms

in line wih European Union accession bu

hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep

he opposiion on he back oo and urher

consolidae personal power

May

Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum

Afer he eradicaion o he

legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093

ciizens are being asked

o voe on amendmens

ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon

o remain in office or lie or permi his

983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in

he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly

conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo

voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen

June

Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections

The early elecions are he resul

o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal

beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN

pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread

governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally

scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed

afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here

had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and

air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he

lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing

cases involving he paryrsquos officials

983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

18

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

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NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 20: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027

November

Romania parliamentaryand local elections

Simulaneous elecions will be

held naionwide or parliamen

and local offices This will mark

he firs implemenaion o a

reormed voing sysem and he cones comes

amid popular rusraion wih he main paries

over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime

Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093

September

Russia parliamentaryelections

The elecions will be a

es o he populariy o

Presiden Vladimir Pu-

inrsquos Unied Russia pary

and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-

spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-

ions led o huge sree proess agains

he governmen and a fierce crackdown

ha coninues o his day

September

Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-

er Presiden Alyaksandr

Lukashenka mainains he

mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin

which he mended ences wih he EU

wihou hreaening his own powermdashby

allowing some compeiion or seas in

he lower house o parliamen Opposiion

paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body

October

Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian

Social Democraic Pary

is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen

and orm a governmen again bu corrupion

scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-

eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-

land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras

October

Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream

(GD) and opposiion Unied

Naional Movemen (UNM)

have been posiioning or

hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-

liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih

boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains

or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor

or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion

oward Europe and he Unied Saes

October

Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo

in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership

or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093

eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership

n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress

n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-

ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu

here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good

ow ha NATO membership has been achieved

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

19

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

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httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

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Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 21: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127

MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-

backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral

Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual

sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December

983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors

a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional

exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical

raings or each counry on seven indicaors

bull National Democratic Governance Consid-

ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he

governmenal sysem he independence e-

eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and

execuive branches and he democraic oversigh

o miliary and securiy services

bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he

developmen o mulipary sysems and popular

paricipaion in he poliical process

bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-

ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-

ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he

legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-

ion he developmen o ree rade unions and

ineres group paricipaion in he policy process

bull

Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-

men o journaliss and ediorial independence

he emergence o a financially viable privae press

and inerne access or privae ciizens

bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he

decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies

elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-

ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o

local auhoriies

bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-

lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-

ions criminal code reorm judicial independence

he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o

equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and

prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions

bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-

rupion he business ineress of op policymakers

laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres

and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms

The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre

sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-

craic progress Minor o moderae developmens

ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a

quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens

warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o

change by more han a hal poin in a single year

A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings

on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit

Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign

each counry o one of he following regime ypes

Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie

receiving his score embody he bes policies and

pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-

lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha

conribue o a slighly lower score

Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ

racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se

lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses

in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies

Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun

ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral

democracies where democraic insiuions are

ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-

ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis

Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-

983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas

auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure

wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice

of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he

minimum sandards of elecoral democracy

Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie

in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion

and pluralism and are responsible or widespread

violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ

Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no

does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion

or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-

ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae

and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs

and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-

odology including complee checklis quesions for eac

democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-

houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

20

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 22: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227

CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS

Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091

Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088

Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095

Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089

Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090

Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089

Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093

Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097

Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094

Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096

Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093

Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091

Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092

Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088

Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089

Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096

Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097

Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095

Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094

Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097

Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092

Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089

Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092

Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091

Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097

Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY

CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society

IM - Independent Media

Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7

with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The

average of these ratings is each countryrsquos

Democracy Score (DS)

NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence

CO - Corruption

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

21

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327

Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 23: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094

Central Europe

Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093

Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089

Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097

Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095

Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090

Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090

Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094

Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089

Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088

Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093

Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090

BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092

Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088

Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096

Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095

Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097

Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091

Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093

Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097

Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092

Eurasia

Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094

Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094

Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092

Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089

Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089

Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097

Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097

Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088

Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092

Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096

Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091

Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092

Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

22

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

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8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES

Corruption

JudicialFramework andIndependence

LocalDemocraticGovernance

NationalDemocraticGovernance

IndependenMedi

CivilSociety

Electoral Process

6

7

5

4

3

2

1

Central Europe

Balkans

Eurasia

The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093

wwwreedomhouseorg

Freedom House

23

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527

Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

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8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

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Notes

Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact

24

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 26: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen

Page 27: Nations in Transit 2016

8182019 Nations in Transit 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727

Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change

i d d d

983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094

wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l

Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-

sible wih he generous suppor o he US

Agency or Inernaional Developmen