National Weather Digest

lropicalIN THE PATH OF DESTRUCTION

by John F. Sanders (1)UNC - Sea Grant College

105 1911 BLD NCSTUNorth Carolina State University

Raleigh, NC 27650

Reprinted by permission of"South Carolina Wildlife" Magazine

Copyright 19B1P.O. Box 167

Columbia, SC 29202

A peck of grits and a pound of pork is nota diet which modern nutritionists wouldrecommend for long-term subsistence. Butin the wake of the destruction caused bythe Sea Islands Hurricane of 1893, morethan 30,000 South Carolinians lived onthese weekly rations for nine months.

The hurricane had plowed its way acrossthe Atlantic Ocean for twelve days beforeits arrival in Beaufort on August 27.Even so, people were unaware that the coreof the storm would churn through the frag­ile sea islands surrounding Port RoyalSound. They were unfamiliar with theforce of a hurricane until the sea claimedthe lives of 2,000 South Carolinians as itwashed away most of the homes and fieldson the sea islands between Charleston andSavannah.

Folks today can look back at the recordsof that storm and take pride in the twen­tieth-century technological innovations inweather forecasting. Meteorologists nolonger rely on sporadic telegraph reportsto develop hurricane forecasts as they didin 1893. Satellites, orbiting 22,000mi les above the earth's surface, provideconstant surveillance on tropical oceans,the spawning grounds of hurricanes. Na­tional Weather Service offices which dotthe coastline have telecommunication sys­tems that, in the wink of an eye, canspeed messages from one station to theother or exchange information with the Na­tional Hurricane Center, the NationalEarth Satellite Service, and the NationalMeteorological Center.

Despite these fascinating technologicalachievements, Dr. Neil Frank, the directorof the National Hurricane Center and oneof the world's leading authorities on hur­ricanes, states that the East and Gulfcoasts of the United States are "more vul­nerable to the hurricane than ever be-

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fore. We are faced with the awesome pos­sibility of making a perfect hurricaneforecast, yet experiencing a tragedy ex­ceeding that of the historic Galveston(Texas) hurricane in 1900 when 6,000 peo­ple died."

How is it that we have vastly improved ob­servational and forecasting tools, yetface the recurrence of a major hurricanedisaster? A partial answer is in the highdensity development and correspondinglyincreased coastal population over much ofour coastal area. Unfortunately, much ofthis has come wi thin areas that are ex­tremely susceptible to hurricane damage.The absence of severe hurricanes over thepast two decades and our superior hurri­cane warning system appear to have giventhe coastal resident a somewhat falsesense of security. To understand the hur­ricane hazard, we must understand how peo­ple perceive and make decisions about po­tential risks.

Almost everyone has seen what happens whenthe wind blows across a body of water, butfew fUlly realize the awesome effect onwater of that heaviest of wind--the hur­ricane. Henry David Thoreau poeticallywrote in "Walden" about the role of windstress in the generation of waves:

"A field of water betrays the spirit thatis in the air. It is continually receiv­ing new life and motion from above. It isintermediate in its nature between landand sky. On land only the grass and treeswave, but the water itself is rippled bythe wind. I see where the breeze dashesacross it by the streaks or flakes oflight. "

Last March we felt the thirty- to fifty­mile-per-hour winds which whipped up wavesof five to eight feet on some inland lakes

in South Carolina. Yet such gale forcewinds cannot begin to match those of thehurr icane. Minimum wind veloci ties inhurricanes exceed seventy-five miles perhour. Winds near the center of the stormmay reach 110 to 225 miles per hour. De­structive waves of gigantic proportionsare pushed up by the hurricane winds.

Addi tionally the hurricane produces a muchmore serious problem than just high windsand high waves and, unfortunately, veryfew people are aware of this hazard. Itis called the STORM SURGE or TIDE, a termwhich refers to the general increase insea level during storm conditions. Blownup by the high winds of the hurricane, therise in sea level is a geophysical forcerepresented by approximately 1,700 poundsof weight for each cubic yard of water.Waves as high as fifteen to twenty feettravel as fast as fifty to sixty miles perhour atop this storm tide.

During Hurricane Hazel, the storm tide atMyrtle Beach increased over five yardsabove mean sea level, stacking about fiveof those 1,700-pound cubes on each yard ofthe beach. This swollen, swirling seawith violent waves atop it demolishedmiles of beach front property in South Car­olina and North Carolina. A team whichsurveyed the damage reported that lithecenter of Hurricane Hazel entered theUnited States coast just north of MyrtleBeach, South Carolina, on October 15,1954. Hurricane winds were recorded fromCape Lookout, North Carolina, to George­town, South Carolina. Grass-covered dunessome ten to twenty feet high near CapeFear were washed away. Every fishing pierfrom Cedar Island, North Carolina, to Myr­tle Beach, a distance of 170 miles, wasdestroyed. At Crescent Beach, South Caro­lina, all sand dunes were washed away,leaving old marsh deposits exposed. Thehigh water line receded fifty to 250 feetand all front row houses were severelydamaged or destroyed. At Atlantic Beachand Windy Hill Beach, the mean high waterline receded about one hundred feet land­ward and more than fi fty percent of thehouses along the ocean front were de­stroyed. At Myrtle Beach, all of theocean-front sand dunes were washed awayand the high water line moved landwardfrom thirty to 150 feet. About eightypercent of the beachfront property wasbadly damaged or destroyed."

Joel Chandler Harris observed the impactwhich the storm surge can have upon avulnerable coastal area. Assigned byScribner's magazine to visit South Carol­Ina following the 1893 Sea Islands Hurri­cane, he referred to residents of Beaufortand the surrounding islands as a "people

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who live near the danger line of the sea,"for it had been the sea which had risenand tossed about ships, houses, andtrees. It had been the sea which hadstripped the land of its crops and haddrowned 2,000 people. The survivors toldHarris about the terror and stri fe whichthe hurricane produced.

John MacDonald, who weathered the stormfor three days in the rigging aboard thevessel "City of Savannah," observed that"a first inspection of the devastateddistrict was appalling, and even as thescenes of distress, sickness, and destitu­tion became more familiar, its sadness didnot wear away.

"In a few hours neat cottages were a heapof ruins, scattered perhaps miles away;giant trees lay across the roads, twistedand knotted into almost impossible shapes;corn and cot ton gone, and human be ings-­missing. There in the marsh, a dark ob­ject is seen lying prostrate. Onward theypush, waist deep in water and mud, tillthey grasp the inanimate object, and aftera moment's silence a piercing wail announ­ces another loved one found, dead. Gowi th them as they carry their dead home.Home~ Where is it? Gone~"

H.L. Bailey, who lived on high ground onEdisto Island, wrote that "how we passedthat night of terror, only God knows, forthe winds blew, the rain fell, and thetide rose, until towards midnight itseemed as if everything was lost; but theold house stood and carried us through un­til dawn of another day, and then what asight met our anxious eyes. What had beena smiling pretty village was nothing but apile of wreckage and a mass of ruins, somehouses having been washed away completelyand those that remained, so badly damagedas to be uninhabi table. To make rna ttersworse even our food had been swept awayand there we were, cut off from the islandon this point of land, wrecked, desolate,and hungry; some of us with only theclothing on our backs, all the balancegone; and as far as the eye could reachthere was nothing to see but water andthose spots from which the tide had reced­ed covered with portions of houses, trunksof clothing broken open and scattered,drowned poUltry, and every crop ruined."

Can we avoid a future hurricane disaster?Current trends in high risk developmentprojects and an increasing coastal popu­lation which is unaware of the dangers ofthe hurricane would cause one to answerthis question, "No."

But the sensitive genius of ArchibaldRutledge may have left clues to help ussolve this present coastal problem. Heonce told a story of physical per il which

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National Weather Digest

occurred when his setter chased a raccooninto a large brackish pond. Set within aremote Carolina estuary, Dr. Rutledge ob­served that "all about me stretched thegreat lonely marsh. Here before me wasthis land-locked lagoon. And in the mid­dle of this arena I was about to see en­acted a little drama of the wilds. Heretwo natural enemies were about to meet-onemuch stronger than the other. Could sa­gacity, some form of unpredictable strate­gy, save the day for the weaker of the twoantagonists?"

The story "Wild Di lemmas" vi vidly portraysthe ensuing struggle that occurred as theraccoon swam to mid pond, climbed atop aslightly submerged stump or log, andawai ted the confident dog's at tack. Justas Dr. Rutledge's setter reached the spot,his intended prey grasped the dog's earsand shoved the head under water. When thesmall hands finally released their grip,the setter, "gasping pi ti fully, II returnedto shore, leaving the "wily old raccoonmaster of that field of honor."

INDIFFERENCE TO THE WARNING

With great concern for public safety,forecasters and reseachers at the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration's(NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) inCoral Gables, Florida, have watched theAtlantic and Gulf coastal zones swell withnew residents during our recent "lull" inhurricane activity. Many residents, unfa­miliar with the forces of the hurricanesystem, have moved into areas which may beaffected by a hurricane storm surge andwidespread coastal flooding. As the po­tential for a hurricane disaster has in­creased, warnings from the NHC have ex­panded in scope.

Few, if any, transportation networks incoastal areas are designed for the largetraffic volumes which would occur during amajor evacuation. Studies have indicatedthat an optimum hourly evacuation rate is600 vehicles for each lane of highway.Thus it would take about ten hours toevacuate 6,000 families from a flood-pronearea with one single-lane road. Otherstudies have shown that a delay of four tofive hours occurs between the evacuationnotice and peak evacuation.

The "best't NHC forecast product on hur­ricane motion is the twelve-hour fore­cast, but for many coastal areas even atwelve-hour advance warning will not beenough time for evacuation. For example,the Tampa Bay, Florida, region estimatesthat they need to begin evacuation of peo­ple from flood-prone and hazardous areasat least fourteen to seventeen hours be­fore the storm.

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Like the raccoon of this story, we mustuse wisdom and planning to mInimize theawesome forces of the hurricane, its wind,storm surge, and gigantic waves. We willnot be able to eliminate future hur­ricane losses. There are already too manyhotels and condominiums built too close tothe "danger line of the sea." There aretoo many houses, businesses, and trailerparks which occupy low-lying, flood-proneareas along the coast. But we can reversethe present trend in high-risk developmentprojects. We can begin to plan and buildnew coastal communities in low-risk areasand maintain programs to ensure thatcoastal residents will know not only howto respond to a hurricane emergency butalso how to help tourists move to safety.

By doing these things we can save billionsof dollars and hundreds, possiblythousands, of Ii ves. To reduce the eco­nomic and social impact of future hurri­canes, we must employ sagacity.

Additionally, elevated storm tides andstorm-generated waves can pound struc­tures near the beach and inundate largeareas of lOW-lying land. Some coastalroads could be subject to flooding and be­come impassable hours before the center ofthe hurricane comes on shore. Can suchvulnerable areas be identified so thatplans can be developed to avert disaster?Wi 11 people in these vulnerable areas re­spond quickly enough and leave hazardousareas in time? These are questions forwhich answers must be found.

Recent experiences have shown that othermajor problems also exist. In September1979, as Hurricane David approached theUnited States mainland, the city of Miamiinitiated its emergency plans. Oneshelter was crowded with 2,000 elderlypeople but had only one nurse to providefor their needs. Fortunately for thisnurse the electrical power did not fail (asituation which happens often during ahurricane) , for she had only one flash­light and its batteries were untested.Food for many of the Miami shelters didnot arrive, while in others, as much as$250,000 worth of food was consumed byevacuees within the first hour of theshelter openings.

In Flor ida and South Carolina, few peoplecarried emergency medical kits, transistorradios, flashlights, candles, fresh water,canned drinks, canned food, and blanket s.This placed increased demands on the re­sources of the emergency shelters and

tplaced the evacuees at lncreasea rIsk naathey become stranded and unable to reach ashel ter.

~onfusion occurred in South Carolina asconflicting information on shelters was~isseminated by emergency workers. Peoplewere sent to shelters which were closed orwere open wi thout supervisors. At shel­ters in Florida and South Carolina, orderand discipline were not maintained byevacuees. There were accounts of argu­ments, some fights, and people forciblytaking food from others.

The evidence suggests that people no

Volume 7 Number 2

longer understand theIr responslDllltlesto ensure their own safety and welfareduring a hurricane emergency. Because ofthis apparent indifference on the part ofmany coastal residents, we are more vul­nerable to future hurricane losses than atany other time in our nation's history.Hence, the best possible forecast andadvance warning from the National Hur­ricane Center, by itself, will not be ableto guarantee safety for individuals inareas vulnerable to storm surge damage andflooding. Only if the individual citizencombines this forecast with quick, sen­sible, and effective response to the hur­ricane threat, can hurr i cane-relatedfatalities continue to be minimized.

REFERENCES AND FOOTNOTES

1. John Sanders is the coastal weather awarenessspecialist for the University of North Carolina's Sea GrantCollege Program. Further information on hurricanes andthe hurricane hazard may be obtained by writing to him atthe UNC Sea Grant College Program, 105, 1911 Building;North Carohna State University; Raleigh, North Carolina2m~ ,

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