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A Predictive Model of Canadian College Student Retention

Dr. Morgan BlairMedicine Hat College

Dr. Peggy PattersonThe University of Calgary

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Factors affecting Canadian college student retention are largely within an institution’s

control.

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Retention among Canadian college

students deserves more

attention

Observations from this

research add to the sparse

literature on this topic

You can use the results to develop

retention strategies

www.mhc.ab.ca

Retention among Canadian

college students deserves more

attention

Observations from this

research add to the sparse

literature on this topic

You can use the results to

develop retention strategies

www.mhc.ab.ca

1. Despite abundant research on American samples, we don’t know much about Canadian college student retention

specifically.

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“we cannot assume that conclusions based on [American] research are equally

applicable to Canada”-Grayson and Grayson (2003)

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2. The majority of published literature is based on university samples.

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College Students

Over age 25

First-generation

Racial minority Part-time

Academically unprepared

Low SES

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3. Environmental changes in the Canadian context are forcing institutions to look at

retention in greater detail.

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Overarching purpose: Improve Canadian college student success and

retention Inform policy and practice, guide allocation of

resources

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What are the dynamics of within-year retention among Canadian community college students?

1. What is the estimated rate of retention?

2. What are the background and academic characteristics that predict retention?

3. Do the predictive models differ by institution?

4. Do the predictive models differ by credential?

www.mhc.ab.ca

Retention among Canadian college

students deserves more

attention

Observations from this

research add to the sparse

literature on this topic

You can use the results to develop

retention strategies

www.mhc.ab.ca

Dynamics of

Retention

Theory

LiteratureData

Mining

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• Use of social structure• Reproduction of social class via accessibility to education

Bordieau’s Social Capital Theory

• Traits influence commitment & integration• Integration influences commitment

Tinto’s Student Integration Model

• Behavior influenced by attitudes• Attitudes influence by experience

Bean & Metzner’s Student Attrition Model

• Background and cognitive factors influence retentionSwail et al.’s Model of Retention & Achievement

• Input and environmental factors interact to produce outcomes

Astin’s Input-Environment-Output Model

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Similarities• Discrete variables• Inter-relationships• Multifaceted• Individual or

environmental

Differences• Role of student• Institutional vs.

student perspective

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Natural phenomena

Inter-relationship

s

Discrete variables

Complex analyses

Describes interaction Institutional

Perspective

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Retention refers to an academic institution’s ability to ensure that students enroll and re-enroll.

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Student Input Dependent children Grade 12 math Academic aspirations Goal commitment Institutional commitment 1st generation Age Gender Marital status Aboriginal status High school average

Environmental Friends attend same college Family attend same college Hours studying Hours working at job Housing Family emotional support Family financial support Student loans Credit load Grade point average Credential Institution

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1. Total sample2. College A only3. College B only4. University Transfer students5. Students enrolled in parchment programs6. Students enrolled in upgrading/non-parchment

programs

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University Transfer

Parchment Programs

Upgrading & Other

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1. Retention rates differ by credential.

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Total S

ample

Colleg

e A

Colleg

e B

Univers

ity Tran

sfer

Parchm

ent

Upgrad

ing/N

on-pa

rchmen

t0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%83.6% 83.9% 82.9% 88.0% 86.3%

71.9%

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2. GPA and full-time enrolment are the strongest predictors of retention.

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• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.92)• GPA (OR=4.10)Total Sample

• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.34)• GPA (OR=3.88)College A

• Full-time enrolment (OR=19.22)• GPA (OR=18.59)College B

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3. Subgroups exist by credential:a) Lower number of hours spent working may predict retention among UT students.

b) Goal commitment may predict retention among students enrolled in upgrading.

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• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.11)• GPA (OR=4.10)• Hours employed (OR=5.87; 4.69)

University Transfer

• Full-time enrolment (OR=9.44)• GPA (OR=13.89)Parchment

• Full-time enrolment (OR=2.93)• Goal commitment (OR=3.77)

Upgrading & Non-Parchment

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4. Factors affecting Canadian college student retention are largely within an

institution’s control.

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Input Environmental

F/T

GPA

Work

Goals

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Retention among Canadian college

students deserves more

attention

Observations from this

research add to the sparse

literature on this topic

You can use the results to develop

retention strategies

www.mhc.ab.ca

University Transfer

• GPA >50th• Full-time• Work <10

Parchment

• GPA >50th• Full-time

Upgrading & Other

• Full-time• Goal

commitment

How can your institution use the results?

What strategies can you develop?

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Continue the conversation online:http://morganjblair.edublogs.org/

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Results should inform but not drive decisions.

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Improving student success and retention is up to you.

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Contact: Morgan Blair

Director, Strategic Research & AnalysisMedicine Hat College

mblair@mhc.ab.ca