national, state and local economic outlook january 6th, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
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National, State and Local Economic Outlook
January 6th, 2009
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The Business Cycle
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REFERENCE DATES DURATION IN MONTHS
Peak Trough Contraction Expansion
Quarterly dates are in parentheses Peak to TroughPrevious trough
to this peak
December 1969(IV)
November 1970 (IV) 11 106
November 1973(IV)
March 1975 (I) 16 36
January 1980(I) July 1980 (III) 6 58
July 1981(III) November 1982 (IV) 16 12
July 1990(III) March 1991(I) 8 92
March 2001(I) November 2001 (IV) 8 120
December 2007(IV)
?? ?? 73
Recent Business Cycle Data
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REFERENCE DATES DURATION IN MONTHS
Average, all cycles:
Contraction Expansion
Peak to TroughPrevious Trough to
Peak
1854-2001 (32 cycles) 17 38
1854-1919 (16 cycles) 2227
1919-1945 (6 cycles) 1835
1945-2001 (10 cycles) 1057
Historical Business Cycle Data
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U.S. Forecast
U.S. Currently in a Moderate Recession (not depression)
12 months and counting…
Recession: 2007Q4 to 2009Q2/Q3
Housing, credit freeze, turmoil in financial markets and volatile energy prices have created an environment that is toxic for economic growth.
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U.S. Forecast
Short-run threat of inflation subsided:
Energy prices – bubble has burst
Inflation gone, but not forgotten
Extremely stimulative fiscal and monetary policies
Once recovery takes root prices could rapidly rise
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U.S. Forecast
Fed has cut target interest rate to near zero Quantitative easing
Another stimulus package - $500 billion, $750 billion or even $1 trillion?
Stimulus should be a cocktail of drugs to fight the recession
Rebate Checks Infrastructure Investment incentive
Treasuries the latest bubble?
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U.S. Economic Outlook From IEC 4th Quarter 2008 Forecast
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
Gross Domestic Product
% Chg, Annual Rate2.8 -0.5 -3.5 -2.0 -0.4 0.5
Consumer Price Index% Chg, Annual Rate
4.9 6.6 -8.1 -2.4 -1.5 1.3
Oil - WTI ($ per barrel)
123.8 118.1 59.8 53.8 47.3 48.2
Total Consumption% Chg, Annual Rate
1.2 -3.2 -3.7 0.7 2.0 3.5
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111009080706050403020100999897
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
30-Year Mortgage Rates and Housing Starts(Mortgage rates - Left axis, %)
30-Year Fixed Mortgage RateHousing Starts - Millions
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111009080706050403020100999897
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
Real GDP Growth and Federal Funds Rate(%)
Quarterly Growth Rate Real GDP Fed Funds Rate
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18.0
17.0
16.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
Manufacturing Employment(Millions)
Manufacturing Employment
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400.0
200.0
0.0
-200.0
-400.0
-600.0
-800.0
-1000.0
-1200.0
Twin Deficits(Billions of Dollars)
U.S. Federal Budget SurplusCurrent Account
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11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Automobile and Light Truck Sales(Millions Vehicles)
Auto SalesLight Truck Sales
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115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
Industrial Production(2002=100)
Industrial Production
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140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)
Total Nonfarm Employment
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9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)
Unemployment Rate
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A look at the Florida housing data:
November 2008 Snapshot
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Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSANovember
2008November
2007%Chg
November2008
November2007
%Chg
STATEWIDE 8,571 8,269 4 $158,300 $217,000 -27
Orlando 1,277 1,108 15 $167,900 $239,000 -30
Panama City 48 47 2 $190,000 $192,500 -1
Fort Walton Beach 127 155 -18 $191,300 $199,300 -4
Jacksonville 545 619 -12 $150,000 $178,200 -16
Tallahassee 100 137 -27 $170,000 $201,400 -16
Lakeland-Winter Haven 211 235 -10 $127,400 $158,900 -20
Florida Sales Report – November 2008Single-Family, Existing Homes
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Florida Sales Report – November 2008Single-Family, Existing Homes
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSANovember
2008November
2007%Chg
November2008
November2007
%Chg
STATEWIDE 8,571 8,269 4 $158,300 $217,000 -27
Orlando 1,277 1,108 15 $167,900 $239,000 -30
Fort Myers-Cape Coral 600 365 64 $106,100 $228,100 -53
Marco Island 25 14 79 $262,500 $500,000 -48
Punta Gorda 174 154 13 $97,700 $177,300 -45
Miami 366 263 39 $224,700 $359,300 -37
Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie 318 230 38 $130,500 $206,300 -37
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Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSANovember
2008November
2007%Chg
November2008
November2007
%Chg
STATEWIDE 2,278 2,474 -8 $130,600 $185,600 -30
Orlando 135 125 8 $76,100 $140,600 -46
Pensacola 21 26 -19 $375,000 $225,000 67
Panama City 17 21 -19 $258,300 $260,700 -1
Jacksonville 60 78 -23 $131,400 $135,800 -3
Gainesville 14 36 -61 $133,300 $146,700 -9
Ocala 3 2 50 $95,000 $108,000 -12
Florida Sales Report – November 2008Existing Condominiums
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Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSANovember
2008November
2007%Chg
November2008
November2007
%Chg
STATEWIDE 2,278 2,474 -8 $130,600 $185,600 -30
Orlando 135 125 8 $76,100 $140,600 -46
Miami 308 297 4 $172,600 $264,700 -35
Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie 49 44 11 $110,000 $170,000 -35
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay
67 67 — $113,800 $172,500 -34
Fort Lauderdale 442 430 3 $109,400 $166,700 -34
Florida Sales Report – November 2008Existing Condominiums
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A look at the housing data:
January 1994 toNovember 2008
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Florida Forecast
Scenario for Florida Economy:
Credit freeze further delayed real estate recovery
Recovery will finally start to take root in 2010
Economy s-l-o-w-l-y gains momentum
Short and Long run demographics of the state have changed
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10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Florida Real Gross State Product(% change year ago)
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9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)
FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate
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300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
Florida Housing Starts(thousands)
Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates
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8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
6500.0
6000.0
Florida Employment(Thousands)
Wage & Salary Employment
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700.0
650.0
600.0
550.0
500.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
Florida Construction Employment(Thousands)
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1400.0
1300.0
1200.0
1100.0
1000.0
900.0
800.0
700.0
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment
(Thousands)
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550.0
500.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
Florida Financial Activities Employment
(Thousands)
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190.0
180.0
170.0
160.0
150.0
140.0
Florida Information Employment(Thousands)
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RegionPopulation Growth
Average % Chg Rank
Florida 0.9 ---
Deltona 0.9 6
Gainesville 1.0 5
Jacksonville 1.3 4
Lakeland 1.9 2
Miami 0.1 9
Naples 1.3 4
Ocala 2.2 1
Orlando 1.6 3
Palm Bay 0.7 7
Pensacola 0.4 8
Tallahassee 0.9 6
Tampa 0.9 6
2009-2011 Averages;Q4 2008 Forecast
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RegionEmployment Growth
Average % Chg Rank
Florida -0.4 ---
Deltona -0.4 2
Gainesville -0.6 4
Jacksonville -0.9 6
Lakeland -0.9 6
Miami -0.9 6
Naples -0.4 2
Ocala -0.5 3
Orlando 0.2 1
Palm Bay -0.8 5
Pensacola -0.8 5
Tallahassee -1.0 10
Tampa -0.6 4
2009-2011 Averages;Q4 2008 Forecast
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SectorOrlando
% Avg. Ann. Gr.
Educ.-Health Serv. 3.7
Other Serv. 2.3
Prof. & Bus. Serv. 0.7
Trade, Trans., Util. 0.3
State & Local 0.3
Leisure 0.2
Federal 0.2
Financial 0.0
Information -1.3
Manufacturing -4.5
Const. & Min. -6.1
2009-2011 Averages;Q4 2008 Forecast
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Sean M. SnaithSean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Director
Institute for Economic CompetitivenessInstitute for Economic Competitiveness
(407) 823-1453(407) 823-1453
[email protected]@bus.ucf.edu
WWW.IEC.UCF.EDUWWW.IEC.UCF.EDU
Thank you