national security vs. energy independence in israel
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National Security vs. Energy Independence in Israel. MK MG (Res.) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University. Some Immediate Observations. Israel has no oil. Israel ’ s energy supply is completely dependent on import. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors
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National Security vs. National Security vs. Energy Independence Energy Independence
in Israelin Israel
MK MG (Res.) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel
21 May 2008
Tel-Aviv University
21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors
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Some Immediate ObservationsSome Immediate Observations
Israel has no oil.Israel’s energy supply is completely
dependent on import.Israel is surrounded by Arab countries with
only one open border: the Mediterranean Sea.
The Middle East is the main supplier of oil to the world.
21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors
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Two Basic Strategic ProblemsTwo Basic Strategic Problems
Can Israel survive a war?– Can Israel be independent (energy-wise)?– Can Israel accumulate enough energy reserves
for emergency periods?
Can Israel stand against the “oil weapon” operated by the Arab oil producers?
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Can Israel be energy independentCan Israel be energy independent??
Through renewable fuels: Not really, only relatively
Nuclear EnergyPossible Solution:
Short wars
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Are renewable energy, bio-fuels etc. Are renewable energy, bio-fuels etc. not important for Israel Securitynot important for Israel Security??
It can decrease Israel dependence on import
It can reduce Arab global oil influence
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“We have a unique military problem
– we are few while our enemies are
many... and the number -- you know,
is a major military factor, usually a
decisive factor. So what helped us to
survive till now and what will help us
in the future? Only our qualitative
advantage.”David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948,
page 43.
David Ben-Gurion (1948)
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Israel in the Middle East – Israel in the Middle East – Some RatiosSome Ratios
Israel vs. its direct neighbors: 1/15Israel vs. Arab world: 1/40Israel vs. Moslem World: 1/200
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The True Aim of WarfareThe True Aim of Warfare
"War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will… Force is thus the means of war; to impose our will on the enemy is its object. To secure that object we must render the enemy powerless; and that, in theory, is the true aim of warfare“
(Clausewitz, On War, Book 1, Chap.1).
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Three ObjectivesThree Objectives
"What is meant by disarming a country? We should at once distinguish between three things, three broad objectives, which between them cover everything: the armed forces, the country, and the enemy's will"
(Book 1, Chap 2).
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A Rhetorical QuestionA Rhetorical Question
Can Israel have a victory over Egypt?Can it destroy its forces?Can it occupy its territory?Can it break the will of the Egyptian
people?
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What is a "VictoryWhat is a "Victory?”?”
1967 – A clear and cut victory of Israel in the Six Days War.
1969 – Egypt launches the Attrition War.1973 – Egypt and Syria surprise Israel in Yom
Kippur War.
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The Concept of “RoundsThe Concept of “Rounds”” Small countries cannot achieve final victory
over bigger ones. Hence, “victory” should be understood in a
context of military “rounds” (e.g. the Six Days War, Yom Kippur, Peace for Galilee)
In each “round” the enemy must be disarmed, i.e., put in such a condition that it can no longer carry on the fight.
The duration of a “round” < few weeks
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Interim ConclusionsInterim Conclusions
Wars should be short (“rounds”)Each round must be won decisively
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“We have a unique military problem
– we are few while our enemies are
many... and the number -- you know,
is a major military factor, usually a
decisive factor. So what helped us to
survive till now and what will help us
in the future? Only our qualitative
advantage.”David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948,
page 43.
David Ben-Gurion (1948)
Decisive VictoryDecisive Victory
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What is our “Qualitative EdgeWhat is our “Qualitative Edge?”?”
“Our human resources in general are no worse than any other country, with our moral and intellectual ability far exceeding our neighbors. This is our chief advantage. And for now it is virtually our only one. To exploit their role fully … they must be armed and equipped … with full exploitation of all innovative scientific and technological conquests for our defense.”David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 13.
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The Right PrioritiesThe Right Priorities
“It does not even require mentioning that we must include scientific, technological and electronic development of innovative weapons at the top of our investment priorities.” Yigal Alon, Integrated Tools, page 103.
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Israel’s inherent advantagesIsrael’s inherent advantages
EducationCombat experienceSmall is beautifulThe synergetic
combination of hi-tech and skilled people
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Number of Engineers per 10000 capita
020406080
100120140160
The secret: The secret: Academic ReservesAcademic Reserves
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The Basic ProblemThe Basic Problem
Industry
Inventors R&D Centers
Academy
?
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Technology Transfer Challenges:Technology Transfer Challenges:Contrasting CulturesContrasting Cultures
UniversityIndustry/Corporate
Social responsibilitiesShareholders responsibilities
Basic researchApplied research
Create new knowledgeDevelop new products
Pure scientific driven researchSpecific objectives, product focused
Publications & collaborationsOwnership and secrecy
Sharing of materialControl of material
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Private Investments vs. Government Private Investments vs. Government Investments (in US $K), 1991-2005Investments (in US $K), 1991-2005
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Government
Private
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The Ultimate Key: ManpowerThe Ultimate Key: Manpower
For small countries the only way to compensate for numeric inferiority is by qualitative superiority
Quality = Skilled people Technology is a product of skilled people
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A word of cautionA word of caution
Industry
Inventors R&D Centers
Academy
?
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There are three possible roads to There are three possible roads to ruin - women, gambling and ruin - women, gambling and technology. The most pleasant is technology. The most pleasant is with women, the quickest is with with women, the quickest is with gambling, but the gambling, but the surest is with technology.surest is with technology.
Georges Pompidou Georges Pompidou