National Jobs Agenda

Beaver Dam Chamber of Commerce

November 8, 2011

National Small Business Outlook Survey

• 84% feel U.S. economy is on the wrong track.

• Uncertainty abounds among small businesses.

• Fueled by growing debt/deficit and over regulation.

• Top two issues of concern are America’s debt and the health care law.

• 79% feel that Washington should get out of the way of small businesses.

Expand trade and global commerce

Produce more American energy

Speed up infrastructure projects

Welcome Tourists and Business Visitors

Speed up permits and provide regulatory certainty

Tax incentives that create jobs while increasing revenues

Expand Trade and Global Commerce

• 95% of global customers live over seas.

• 283 trade agreements around the globe.

U.S. in just 11 Trade Agreements covering 17 partners.

Those partners purchased 40.7% of U.S. goods exports in 2010.

Trade Agreements

Three Approved Trade Agreements = save 380,000 jobs• Korea Trade Agreement• Panama Trade Agreement• Columbia Trade Agreements

• The agreements sweep aside the high tariffs and other trade barriers, such as quotas and licensing fees, that deter many of America’s companies from exporting.

• Chamber study warned that the U.S. could lose more than 380,000 existing jobs and $40 billion in export sales if we fail to act.

www.tradesupportsjobs.com

Speed Up Transportation and Energy Infrastructure

Invest in Transportation• SAFETEA-LU Reauthorization• Increase investment without increasing the deficit.• Private investment opportunities.

Energy Generation and Transmission• Keystone XL Pipeline: will create 250,000 jobs and

$20 billion of investment in the U.S.• Energy projects delayed have cost 1.9 million jobs.

Energy Projects on Hold

• 351 delayed or cancelled energy projects nationwide.• Costs the U.S. economy $1.1 trillion in GDP and 1.9 million jobs each

year during construction phase.• Once built, the operations would generate $145 billion to local

economies and involve 791,000 jobs yearly.

Regulatory Balance

The President’s Regulatory Look Back:

• Eliminates duplicative regulations.

• Improves electronic government (E-Gov) usage.

• Estimated to save businesses $10 billion over the next five years.

Regulatory Balance: More Needs to be Done

• The average regulatory cost for each employee of a small business exceeds $10,000 per year.

• Health and Human Services is expected to release 30,000 pages of new health care regulations.

• Eleven different agencies are drafting 259 new rules governing the cost and access to credit for businesses.

• More than 100 rulemakings from EPA with 30 listed as “economically significant” or costing economy more than $100 million.

• Department of Labor considering 90 rulemakings and NLRB with new union rules.

What’s In The Health Care Law?The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PL 111-148; March 22 2010)

Individual Mandate - Requires all to have health insurance coverage. Enforced through penalty: $695 ind/$2,914 family (2014)

Employer “Free Rider” Mandate – Fine for employers that do not offer coverage and have employees who receive premium subsidy (2014)

State Insurance Exchanges – Marketplace for individuals and small employers to purchase coverage (2014)

Subsidies – Refundable premium credits for those with incomes between 133-400% of poverty. Small business tax credits for employers with 25 or less employees.

Expand Medicaid – Access to all individuals under 65 with incomes up to 133% of poverty = $14,000 ind./29,000 family (2014)

What’s In The Bill?

Essential Health Benefits Package – Requires all health plans offered through the exchanges to provide at least yet to be defined “essential health benefits package” (2014)

Insurance Reforms: New regulations will seek to prevent health insurers from denying coverage to people for any reason.

Prohibit Rescinding of Coverage (unless fraud - 2010)Prohibit Lifetime Limits (2010) or Annual Limits on Coverage (2014 group

plans)Prohibit Preexisting Conditions Exclusions (2010 for children; 2014 for

everyone)Dependent Coverage for children up to age 26 (2010)Requires Preventative Coverage (2010) Guarantee Issue and Rating Limitations (2014)

Small Employer Credits: Up to 50% of employer’s contribution (up to 5 years).

Small Employer Considerations

Employer Mandate: Employers with less than 50 Full-Time Equivalents (FTE) are exempt from employer mandate

Subsidies: 25 employees or less with average workforce salary of $50,000 or less eligible for tax credits through 2016

Exchanges: Small businesses with up to 100 employees will be able to purchase coverage through the Exchange

Larger Employer Considerations

(More than 50 full time employees)

Employers that do offer health insurance:

– If coverage is not “affordable” (employee’s share more than 9.5% of income),

– and the employee goes into exchange (and gets tax credit) – penalty is $3,000 for each employee who receives subsidy

Impact on Health Care Costs

• Kaiser Family Foundation – Recent survey found that employer sponsored health coverage increased nearly 10 percent to $15,073 in 2011.

• Portion of the increase directly attributed to the new Health Care Law.

What’s Next on Health Care

• Legislative – Ongoing fixes in Congress. Opportunities to improve the law. (Such as repeal of employer mandate – HR. 1744 and S. 20)

• Regulatory – Guidance & Rulemaking by DOL, HHS, & IRS

• Legal – Legal challenge. 26 states have filed suit on constitutionality. Expected Supreme Court consideration in 2012.

Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt

Federal Deficit

• Current deficit now at $1.3 trillion for 2011.

• At 8.5% of GDP, this year’s projected budget deficit will be the third consecutive deficit exceeding $1 trillion.

• As a percentage of the economy, the deficits spanning the end of the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration are the largest of the past 65 years.

Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt

Federal Debt

• As of August 3, 2011, the gross debt was $14.34 trillion dollars ($9.78 trillion was held by the public and $4.56 trillion was intergovernmental holdings).

• At current rate, we will accumulate over $18 trillion in debt and reach a debt-to-GDP ratio of 76% by the end of the decade.

• Could lead to higher interest rates, a weak dollar, more inflation, less private investment, lower economic and job growth and decline in our global competitiveness.

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent of GDP

Debt to GDP

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Billions $

Debt

Government Debt

Social Security -

$701

Defense - $692

Medicare/ Medicaid -

$792

Interest - $202

Non-Defense Discretionary -

$666

All Other Mandatory -

$432

More Than Half Of Spending On “Auto-Pilot” Biggest Driver Is Aging Baby-Boomer Generation

2010 Spending Composition

Spending Projections

The Budget Control Act of 2011

• Debt limit increase - $900 billion increase in debt limit in two phases (and an additional $1.5 trillion if requested).

• Cut Spending by $917 billion - Discretionary spending caps over 10 years enforced through a sequestration process.

• Balanced Budget Amendment – Requires a vote on passage of a resolution for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution (3/4 states needed to ratify).

The Budget Control Act of 2011

• Super Committee - 12 member “Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction” which will produce a bill to reduce deficit by “at least” $1.5 trillion over 10 years by November 23, 2011.

• If the Committee fails or Congress does not adopt $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction by January 15, 2012 the Act mandates reductions in spending.

• Expedited Procedures – The Super Committee will operate outside existing Congressional budget rules. Seven of 12 members required to produce a bill for floor consideration. Proposal will not be subject to amendment.

• U.S. Chamber is urging the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction to act expeditiously to rein in spending, reduce the deficit, and stabilize and lower America’s level of debt.

• We believe that enhancing economic and job growth is a prerequisite to achieve this goal, but growth alone will not be enough.

• Congress must reform entitlement programs and restructure the tax code to bring revenue and spending back into alignment.

– Reform entitlements – Currently, mandatory spending comprises over 55% of federal spending. CBO estimates that over time mandatory spending increases to over 60%. Simple arithmetic suggests that entitlements must be part of the equation.

– Restructuring the U.S. tax code – To improve efficiency, transparency, and simplicity to drive economic growth and bring revenue and spending back into alignment.

The Budget Control Act of 2011

1. Which state policies have the biggest impact on creating jobs?

2. Are there best practices that states are putting into action to create new economic opportunities and prosperity?

ENTERPRISING STATES 2011:RECOVERY AND RENEWAL FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

1. Entrepreneurship and Innovation2. Exports and International Trade3. Workforce Development and

Training4. Infrastructure5. Taxes and Regulation

POLICY AND BEST PRACTICE AREAS

States can see where they are leading and lagging and learn from the success of others

Wisconsin’s Longstanding Tradition of High Performance, Global Companies

Oshkosh Corp. S.C. Johnson, Johnson Controls, Harley-Davidson,

Creating a business friendly environment for existing companies and entrepreneurs just getting started

Promising export growth Strong workforce training

Briggs & Stratton

Johnsonville, Kohler Kohl’s.

Save the DateAmerica’s Small Business

Summit May 21–23, 2012

Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.For more information on the Summit, visit

www.uschambersummit.com.

Nominate your all-star business for the DREAM BIG Small Business of the Year Award!

The winner will receive a $10,000 cash prize.

For more information, visit www.uschambersummit.com/award. Nominations will be accepted starting August 12. Sponsored by Sam’s Club.

U.S. Chamber of CommerceMidwest Regional Office

QUESTIONS?

Doug Loon(952) 832-9151