national infrastructure expenditure estimates
DESCRIPTION
National Infrastructure Expenditure Estimates. Implications for the construction industry 2014/15 – 2016/17 Focus Forum 26 March 2014. Budget Review . Pravin Gordhan’s delivers his 5 th Budget Speech. Investor’s budget. Capping expenditure Maintaining focus on infrastructure expenditure - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
National Infrastructure Expenditure Estimates
Implications for the construction industry2014/15 – 2016/17
Focus Forum 26 March 2014
Budget Review
Pravin Gordhan’s delivers his 5th Budget Speech
Investor’s budget
Capping expenditure Maintaining focus on infrastructure expenditure No idle targets or promises in terms of delivery Strong focus on what has been achieved over
the last twenty years Focused on improving deficits to restore (or at
least maintain current) sovereign debt ratings
Transformation and Reprioritisation
Minister of Finance: Pravin Gordhan
• Maintaining current expenditure levels
• Maintaining current spending priorities
• Economic transformation through the NDP
• More effective spending• Reprioritisation rather
than new funds defines the MTEF
Outline
• Review of budgeted allocations over the next three years 2014/15 –
2016/17
• Not a review of policies or whether or not they are effective
• Not a critic of whether or not the budget is sufficient to deal with
backlogs
• Unpacking the numbers, focussing on budgets rather than “plans” or
programmes
• Not project specific – list of infrastructure per vote
• May be more questions than answers – new events develop on a daily
basis
National Development Plan“Plan not a budget”
Golden thread for planning and setting short to medium term priorities to achieve long term objectives
Need the buy in from all government departments as well as the private sector
Allocations fall short of NDP targetIn order to achieve 10% target, need to double infrastructure allocations over the Medium Term
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
% of GDP
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulletin, Budget Reviews
Gross Fixed capital formation Percentage of GDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
R200bn shortfall (2012, 2005 prices)
20.5% (2013Q2)Peak 21% (2009)
NDP 2030 Target
Who pays for economic infrastructure? “…users must pay the bulk of costs for economic
infrastructure” Role of fiscus to provide requisite guarantees
Human Settlements Coordinated at local (municipal level)
(planning, implementation, services) Local government challenges
Poor capacity, weak administrative systems, undue political interference in decision making, uneven fiscal capacity
Spatial transformation SIP, Economic Zones
Some interesting considerations set out in the NDP
Upgrading informal settlements Public transport infrastructure and systems Developing Durban-Gauteng freight corridor New coal line to unlock coal deposits in the Waterberg Develop new water schemes to supply urban and industrial centres New irrigation systems in the Umzimbuvu river basin and Makathini Flats National water conservation programme Construction of infrastructure to import liquefied natural gas and increasing exploration
to find domestic gas feedstock Producing at least 20 000 MW of renewable electricity by 2030
Currently 64 projects with collective capacity of 3933 MW, further announcement for additional projects expected 31 December. Thus far received a total of 93 bids (6032MW).
Decommission 11 000 MW ageing coal-fired power stations Establishing national, regional and municipal fibre-optic networks to provide the
backbone for broad band access (led by private sector)
NDP: Infrastructure Priorities
MONITORING
Investment in construction, Client TypeY-Y Percentage change, 2005 prices
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulletin
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Private Government Public Corporations
Impact of Government budget on GFCFGovernment (ex SOE, Private), Rm current prices
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Building Construction Works Infrastructure Budget
92%
70%
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulleting, Budget Reviews
• Challenge to compare calendar with financial year periods• Building industry less than 20% exposure (2012, 2013)• Civil industry app. 75% exposure (2012, 2013)
Impact of budget on GFCF: ResidentialGovernment (ex SOE, Private), Rm current prices
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Residential Human Settlement Budget % share
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulleting, Budget Reviews
• Challenge to compare calendar with financial year periods• Definition of capital asset based on ownership, not originator of finance
2004/05: Breaking new ground Housing policy
Investment in construction: 2005 pricesRevised estimates
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 9920
0220
0520
0820
110
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Revised Equipment Official
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulletin, SAFEC, Industry Insight
Equipment and machinery supplied to large construction projects, ie coal-fired power stations
Government’s infrastructure programme cushion slowdown in construction sector
Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-130
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Lending rates Private Government Corp
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulletin
Private Government SOE’s
37% 30% 33%
Mr L Ramatlakane (Cope) to ask the Minister in the Presidency
‘What progress has been made with regard to the delivery of the R860bn infrastructure programme…”
“Excellent progress is being made on the delivery of the R827bn MTEF” Minister in Presidency
Presidential Infrastructure Coordinating Commission (PICC) had presented 5 quarterly reports to cabinets showing progress on 150 project clusters in construction across the 18 Strategic Integrated Projects (SIP)
Must be seen in context in relation to the 20 year NDP Current value of the National Infrastructure Plan is
R4,3bn? PICC tracks 50% of the all public sector infrastructure
spend across the state and in SOE’s State spending should increase to R300bn (from
R200bn) per annum to reduce backlogs
PPS Survey Professional Provident Society (PPS)
Only 42% of engineers felt that government was effectively delivering on its promised infrastructure spend, a recent Professional Provident Society (PPS) survey of 400 South African engineers revealed.
Only 18% of engineers surveyed believed that enough was being done to attract new engineers to the profession. Still falling short of target of 10 093, with 8424 engineers registered in 2009 and 9387 in 2011.
“Currently the roll-out of projects is hardly making a dent in the earmarked spend of more than R870-billion. The lack of adequate roll-out has seen companies releasing civil engineering professionals and some engineers have also chosen to leave the country for employment elsewhere,” SAICE, CEO Manglin Pillay said, adding that this was something South Africa could not afford should the big infrastructure roll-out happen.
MACRO ECONOMIC CONSIDERATION
Programme / Policy
Year Framework
RDP 1994 Social Development Policy
Housing, Electricity, Land Reform, Education, Health
GEAR 1996 Macro Economic Policy
Adopted by Dept of Finance – GDP growth of 6% by 2000, reduce budget deficit to 2% to 3% of GDP, increase savings..
ASGISA 2006 Prioritized spending
Responsibility of the Deputy President - Prioritized spending, strong focus on infrastructure investment. First mention of “National Infrastructure Programme”
NDP 2011 Transformation Dedicated Ministerial task team
Conflicted with job creation and growth targets
Infrastructure Development Bill
Shift in global growth expectations in favour of developed economies
2012 2013 2014 2015
World 3.20% 3.50% 4.10%
US 2.30% 2.00% 3.00%
Eurozone -0.40% -0.20% 1.00%
UK -0.20% 1.00% 1.90%
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.80% 5.80% 5.70%
Brazil 1.00% 3.50% 4.00%
Russia 3.60% 3.70% 3.80%
India 4.50% 5.90% 6.40%
China 7.80% 8.20% 8.50%
SA 2.50% 2.70% 3.50%
Source: Treasury
Lower than expected exports due to weaker than expected demand from trading partners (Europe, US and Japan). This in turn affected the manufacturing sector. Africa has subsequently become a more important export destination.
Higher levels of exchange rate volatility, because of higher levels of global liquidity and fluctuating risk appetite due to US easing bond purchases in May 2013 and again in January 2014.
South Africa relies on foreign inflows to sustain current investment levels and fund the current account and budget deficits. Inflows fell to R24bn in 2013 vs R88bn in 2012.
Domestic Economic outlook below 4%Treasury estimates
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP, Current prices 2674 2933 3139 3391 3706 4063 4456
Real growth 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.80% 2.7% 3.2% 3.5%
Revenue 757.2 836.9 887.8 1010.5 1099.2 1201.3 1324.7
Expenditure 877.5 954.2 1055.9 1149.3 1252.3 1351.6 1451.6
Deficit -120.3 -117.3 -168.1 -138.8 -153.1 -150.3 -126.9
Deficit % of GDP -4.5% -4.0% -5.4% -4.1% -4.1% -3.6% -2.8%
GFCF Real % Change -2.1% 4.2% 4.4% 3.20% 4.2% 5.3% 6.0%
Revenue as % of GDP 28.3% 28.5% 28.3% 29.8% 29.7% 29.6% 29.7%
Expenditure % of GDP 32.8% 32.5% 33.6% 33.9% 33.8% 33.3% 32.6%
CPI Headline inflation 4.3% 5.0% 5.6% 5.70% 6.2% 5.9% 5.5%
Source: Treasury
Growth outlook for 2014/15 hinges on the following:
Improved export growth Lower import growth Stronger private sector investment as a result of
improved infrastructure alleviating bottlenecks Stronger growth in job creation stimulating household
expenditure
Risk: Budget deficit
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
GDP Revenue 2013 Revenue 2014 Expenditure
Deficit
Source: Treasury
When spending exceeds income = budget deficit
R1.1 trillion
Budget deficit Current account deficit Weaker export demand, could lower GDP growth outlook Credit ratings and the World Government bond index Volatile capital flows
Exposure to foreign portfolio investments Emerging market risks Currency depreciation
Oil price volatility (supply constraints) Inflationary pressure surprise on the upside Monetary policy – balance lower growth amidst higher price
pressures Savings / Debt Dilemma 2014 Elections
Threats to domestic economic outlook
When spending exceeds income = deficit How is this financed?
Through borrowing in the domestic and international markets mainly through bonds
Adds to government’s debt level that needs to be serviced through interest payments
The higher the debt level the more money is required to from the fiscus to finance it
Borrowing requirement is projected to increase to R180bn by 2016/17.
3% of GDP goes towards servicing debt
Budget deficit to improve from -4% in 2013 to -2.8% in 2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%Rm % of GDP
Financed through bond marketsR215bn
2016/17: -2.8%
Source: Treasury
Debt is financed through bond markets: R215bn
Ownership of government bond has increased from 18% in 2009 to 36% in 2013’
Increased vulnerability Critical to maintain (or improve) credit ratings
Tighter control on expenditure
Because expenditure will be capped over the MTEF, more effective spending will be critical
How does government propose to achieve this? Several spending reviews are under way by National Treasury and Dept
of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation to provide greater understanding of performance and value for money
These include feedback by SOE’s on capital spending (Quarterly) Initial findings will be released in 2014/15
Similar reviews are currently being conducted in provincial governments Office of the Accountant-General is also strengthening the control
environment ito government’s financial systems Combat waste – cost containment instructions in January 2014 include
budgets for consultants, travel, accommodation, and venue hire Contingency Reserve was lowered to R3bn in 2014/15. This means
government wont be table to accommodate unforeseeable and unavoidable expenditure.
Reprioritisation NOT new funds
Reprioritisation that effect construction announced in 2014/15: R5.5bn
Rail network Municipal Human settlement capacity grant Regional bulk infrastructure Repairs to damaged infrastructure caused by natural
disasters By comparison R21.9bn was added to the public
sector salary and wage bill
Impact of higher inflation on public sector wage agreements
Wage agreements are inflation +1 Reviewed for 2015 Capping expenditure means higher wage bill will
be financed through reprioritization Brings us back to the issue of more effective
spending or the construction sector will bear the brunt
Currency “adjustment”
Mar-13
Mar-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
May-13
May-13
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
3Ju
l-13Ju
l-13
Aug-13
Aug-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Oct-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Dec-13
Dec-13
Jan-1
4
Jan-1
4
Jan-1
4
Feb-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
Source: Global Insight
2012/13• Strike action• Sovereign debt rating• Current account deficit
US Federal easing of Bond purchasesEmerging market risks increase due to capital flows (May 2013 / January 2014)
• The rand experienced the largest depreciation among emerging markets, falling by 17%• Risk to inflation• But is hoped to boost manufacturing, exports and job creation
Interest rates, inflation targeting and the currency
Repo rate was increased to 6% as a result of currency depreciation.
Prior 2008 this was a more effective instrument to control money supply
Low growth economy, money supply is already under pressure
Is inflation targeting still a credible instrument post 2008/09?
How much tightening of monetary policy would be needed to improve the currency?
FNB 11% by end 2015?
Exports should be driven by more than a weaker currency
Manufacturing sector steady, albeit slow recovery up to 2012, but stagnated in 2013
The currency has been deprecating for the past two years (more aggressively over the last six months), with no real improvement seen in 2013
What do we have to export vs what we need to import
Saving / Debt dilemma
Mar-88 Mar-93 Mar-98 Mar-03 Mar-08 Mar-13
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Saving to disposable income of households Household debt to disposable income
Source: Stats SA
Higher interest rates will impact on debt levels
Mar-88 Mar-93 Mar-98 Mar-03 Mar-08 Mar-130.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Prime Lending rate Household debt to disposable income
Source: Treasury
Inflationary pressures surprised on the upside
Source: Treasury
Currency depreciation
Elections: Civil Tender index vs Elections1999=100 (MAT) (Source: Project Database)
Mar-99
Sep-9
9
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
260.0
280.0
300.0
2014 Election
1999 Election
2004Election
2009Election
Economic environment
Stable, low global growth outlook Increased emerging market risks
Capital flows and currency volatilities China Russia
Weak domestic growth Poor business confidence Savings and debt ratio unsatisfactory Limited opportunities for employment growth Below inflationary wage increases
Deficit risks Current account deficit Budget Deficit Trade deficit
Tighter fiscal control Inflationary pressures
Inflation targeting being criticized Election
Investor confidenceRating agencies
?• If we do not achieve 2.7% growth• Will not have R1.1 trillion to spend• Will not be able to finance current or new
borrowing requirements• BUT will still have to finance a growing
public sector wage bill because of higher inflation
• Reprioritisation NOT new funds
• Result in further cuts in infrastructure
INFRASTRUCTURE ESTIMATES
2014/15 – 2016/17
Public Sector Infrastructure Estimates2011 vs 2014 (Rm, Current prices)
Source: Treasury
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014
NDP and the Budget
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN16 year plan
Em
ploy
men
t
Urb
anis
atio
n
Edu
catio
n /
Trai
ning
Div
ersi
fied
Eco
nom
y
Link
s w
ith
emer
ging
ec
onom
ies
Equ
ality
Low
-car
bon
futu
re
Budget 2014/15
Unpacking the R847bn
R847bn
GovernmentR363bn
43% (from 40%)
SOE’sR404bn
48% (from 51%)
PPPR9bn
1.2% (from 3%)
Extra-budgetary institutions
R70bn8% (no change)
Central: R45 bn (12%)
Provincial: R135 bn (37%)
Local: R184 bn (51%)
Public sector infrastructure estimates
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17MTEF Total
National Departments 7200 6600 9600 11400 14100 14300 16700 45100
Provincial Departments 39100 43400 36400 41800 42600 45500 46600 134700
Local Government 30900 33200 41700 55200 58300 61800 63500 183600
Public Entities 9400 15400 14100 16400 21500 23700 24400 69600
PPP's 7300 10700 2600 3000 3100 3300 3500 9900
Public Enterprises 86000 98900 113400 124800 133400 139100 132000 404500
Total 179900 208200 217800 252600 273000 287700 286700 847400
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17MTEF Total
National Departments -8.3% 45.5% 18.8% 23.7% 1.4% 16.8% 14.0%
Provincial Departments 11.0% -16.1% 14.8% 1.9% 6.8% 2.4% 3.7%
Local Government 7.4% 25.6% 32.4% 5.6% 6.0% 2.8% 4.8%
Public Entities 63.8% -8.4% 16.3% 31.1% 10.2% 3.0% 14.8%
PPP's 46.6% -75.7% 15.4% 3.3% 6.5% 6.1% 5.3%
Public Enterprises 15.0% 14.7% 10.1% 6.9% 4.3% -5.1% 2.0%
Total 15.7% 4.6% 16.0% 8.1% 5.4% -0.3% 4.4%
Stronger growth over MTEF from government
Investment by government will surpass SOE’s by 2016/17
Infrastructure breakdown
Economic Transport Water Energy
Social Education Health Other
Justice and Protection services
R223 bn
R36bn
Eco n o mi c
So c i a l
Ju s t i c a n d p ro te c t i o n
9.00
%
2.20
%
0.00
%
Nominal change2014/15
Infrastructure does not equal construction
Construction Exposure
R534bn
Source: Industry Insight
Govt budgets increasing at faster rate compared to SOE’s
Bulk of infrastructure via Local government
Transnet Eskom Central Energy Fund
SANRAL TCTA National Dep
Provincial Local Govt
PPP0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
41300
52200
4900
15800
480014100
42600
61800
3100
2014/15
R273bn 2014/15
Public Enterprises
Transnet Eskom Central Energy Fund
SANRAL TCTA0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
41300
52200
4900
15800
4800
2014/15
Account for 95% (R381bn)
R126bn 2014/15 (R404bn MTEF)
Public Enterprises
Transnet Eskom Central Energy Fund
SANRAL TCTA-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
16000
3100
-7900
3600 31002014/15 Change
Account for 95% (R381bn)
63.2%
-61.7%
-43.4% 182.4%
R126bn 2014/15 (R404bn MTEF)
31.6 -10.0 -28.2 27.9 45.3Avg Change MTEF (nominal)
5.5%
Nominal growth slows over the medium term
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 MTEF Total
Economic services 13.9% 4.9% 16.2% 9.3% 5.8% -3.0% 4.0%
Energy 28.5% 11.9% 7.3% -10.3% -9.4% -22.7% -14.2%
Water and Sanitation 31.5% 17.7% 43.4% 12.7% 1.1% 4.3% 6.0%
Transport and logistics 2.2% -0.9% 13.1% 26.7% 20.5% 6.3% 17.8%
Other economic services -4.2% -22.6% 46.1% 16.9% -6.6% -9.9% 0.2%
Social services 21.4% -3.2% 18.2% 2.2% 3.8% 9.5% 5.2%
Health 14.9% 26.0% 1.0% 7.1% 7.6% 2.7% 5.8%
Education 25.8% 25.6% 23.5% 11.6% 0.7% 2.9% 5.1%
Other social services 22.7% -31.8% 29.0% -9.4% 4.0% 22.3% 5.6%
Justice and protection services -26.3% 57.1% 11.4% 0.0% 2.0% 30.0% 10.7%
Central government, administrative and financial services 116.7% 6.2% 5.8% 8.2% 6.3% 10.7% 8.4%
Total 15.8% 4.4% 16.0% 8.1% 5.5% -0.4% 4.4%
Government Infrastructure Estimates: R386bn
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Total Public Sector 208171 217800 252600 273000 287700 286700 R847 4700
Govt Contribution % 40.0% 40.3% 42.9% 42.1% 42.3% 44.2%
Infrastructure expenditureCurrent prices, Rm
89,806,100 93,281,570 102,222,800 116,748,000 130,847,100 138,922,000 386,517,100
Infrastructure expenditureConstant 2005 prices, Rm
53,708,909 53,130,884 54,927,914 58,085,940 60,278,428 59,257,741 177,622,109
Infrastructure expenditureReal Annual Change
17.9% -1.1% 3.4% 5.7% 3.8% -1.7% 2.6%
Building cost index: 2005 = 100 167.2 175.6 186.1 201.0 217.1 234.4 167.2
Building cost index: 2005 = 100: Annual Change
6.50% 5.00% 6.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00%
Source: Treasury
Construction cost inflation erodes budgets
99/000
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
8%Avg
MTEF
Source: Industry Insight, Statistics SA
2008/09: Infrastructure expenditure fell by 3%, vs 14% increase in allocations
Fuel and plant drive construction costs
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Composite Material (Civil) Fuel Plant Labour (CPI)
Government Infrastructure expenditure(excl state-owned enterprises) Real change (%)
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
3.8%
-1.7%
Source: Treasury
5.7%
Infrastructure priorities stabilise in the medium termRemain below 20% of total national expenditure
Source: Treasury
Important highlights
Gordhan’s approach not as comprehensive as Manual - Less detail (PPP’s, CIP’s…)
Moving horizons – in many cases to 2016/17 Stricter criteria to release conditional grants Taking no-nonsense approach to under spending Increased allocations transferred to “Indirect grants” Centralised procurement Spatial framework (NDP)
Housing budget (Central and provincial departments takes less responsibility)
SIP and SEZ’s (long term implication) Policy development
Conditional and Indirect grants
The contribution of indirect grants to total conditional grants transferred to provinces increase from 3,4% in 2013/14 to 6,2% (R5.4bn)
The contribution of indirect grants transferred to municipalities increase from 14,3% in 2013/14 to 17,6% (R7.7bn
National electrification programme shifted to Eskom: R460m Municipal Water infrastructure shifted to DWAF: R3.3bn Rural household infrastructure grant: R132.8m
Review of effectiveness of existing infrastructure grants Over reliance by municipalities on grant funding Changes to conditional grants may be introduced in 2015/16
DEPARTMENTSInfrastructure review 2013/14 – 2015/16
• 6 Departments are responsible for 95% of total government infrastructure expenditure
Source: Treasury
2014 MTEFR’000 current prices Per. Share
Transport 111,567,300 28.9%Human Settlements 90,428,500 23.4%
Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (MIG) 45,548,700 11.8%
Education (Basic Education + Higher Education) 44,538,200 11.5%
Water Affairs 27,678,100 7.2%Health 19,117,000 4.9%Energy 16,133,100 4.2%Safety (Police, Correctional Service, Defense, Justice and Constitutional Dev)
12,899,800 3.3%
Trade and Industry (SEZ’a IDZ”s) 4,154,500 1.1%
Science and Technology 3,110,700 0.8%
National Treasury 2,562,700 0.7%Public Works 2,239,600 0.6%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 1,832,200 0.5%
Arts and Culture 1,699,900 0.4%
Environmental affairs 1,694,800 0.4%
International Relations and Cooperation 673,500 0.2%
Home Affairs 373,500 0.1%Communications 265,000 0.1%
386,517,100 100.0%
Transport (largest allocation)R111,6bn (current prices)
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
% Change Current 2012 Budget
4.5%
Department / VoteReal Percentage change
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2013 MTEF
Transport 6.1 41.1 -15.2 0.7 16.9 4.3 -2.8 6.1
Source: Treasury
Bigger portion of Transport prioritized towards Rail infrastructure
Source: Treasury
SANRALTransfers from Fiscus increase by 16% in 2014/15
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2013 2014
• In 2011 the Dept. provided an
additional R5,8bn to SANRAL
due to delays in implementation
of e-tolling on Gauteng Freeways
• Infrastructure financed by
SANRAL’s own revenue is
projected to increase by R2,4bn
to R3,7bn in 2014/15
• Operating tolls takes less than
20% of revenue collected
SANRAL
Need R250m – R300m / month to repay debt (R3,6bn / year)
In first three months collected R250m Need to restore investor confidence to
buy SANRAL bonds Will this be enough for rating agencies
review SANRAL’s recent downgrade? Debt R40bn (from R6bn in 2007) No provision for bad debt made Legal fees cost taxpayer R6m Expanding Road network puts pressure
on financial obligations Non-toll road network increased by 27%, but
budget increased by only 9% Limpopo’s 1628km incorporated into SANRAL’s
network in 2014 Eastern Cape (2113km) and North West
(1142km) = total of 3500km incorporated in 2012
• SANRAL appointed as Coordinator for SIP4 projects which covers the North West Province
• Western Cape toll – SANRAL priority• R10bn needed to upgrade the Huguenot Tunnel
Future road constructionE-toll, financing debt and maintenance
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF % of TotalSANRAL Road projects 11,477,300 6,602,600 7,043,500 8,180,800 8,545,700 8,998,600 25,725,100 23.1%SA Rail 6,134,800 6,701,100 7,481,100 10,711,000 9,681,500 10,194,700 30,587,200 27.4%Public Transport Infrastructure and systems grant
4,611,600 4,884,400 4,668,700 5,126,000 5,278,900 5,558,700 15,963,600 14.3%
Provincial Road maintenance grant 5,872,400 6,828,500 7,519,500 9,361,500 9,952,300 10,291,900 29,605,700 26.5%
Total 28,096,100 25,016,600 26,712,700 33,727,300 37,980,400 39,859,600 111,567,300 100.0%
Annual ChangeCurrent prices 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
2014MTEF Avg
SANRAL Road projects 182.3% -42.5% 6.7% 16.1% 4.5% 5.3% 8.6%SA Rail 20.0% 9.2% 11.6% 43.2% -9.6% 5.3% 13.0%Public Transport Infrastructure and systems grant 24.7% 5.9% -4.4% 9.8% 3.0% 5.3% 6.0%
Provincial Road maintenance grant 43.9% 16.3% 10.1% 24.5% 6.3% 3.4% 11.4%
Total 61.5% -11.0% 6.8% 26.3% 12.6% 4.9% 14.6%
Source: Treasury
Human Settlements: R90bnDelivery of housing transformed, negative growth over MTEF
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
% Change Current 2013 Budget
Department / Vote
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Human Settlement 14.3 11.9 1.5 7.8 0.0 -1.2 -2.9 -1.3
Source: Treasury
Fewer units targeted over MTEFFocus on rental housing
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Housing delivery targets 120610 115079 70362 66655 72,533 76433
215 000(653 000
2013 budget)
Units completed 58587 45698 21424 75275 81,912 68318225 505
Source: Treasury
2013 MTEF 2014 MTEF0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Units
Units
• Moving away from typical RDP housing developments
• Deliver 215 621 units over the next three years (vs 653 000 in 2013 Budget)
• Upgrade 92 000 serviced sites• Acquire 7197 hectares of land• 17977 rental units• Bucket eradication programme R1,9bn over
the next two years• Mining townships
Less than 5% of national expenditure dedicated to housingGrowth predicted to decline over the MTEF
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/170
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Units completed Sites servicedRm, constant prices
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/170
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Top structures Serviced sites
Source: Treasury
Under delivery will lead to reprioritization of allocations
Urban settlement development grant Reduced by R130m Underspending by Manguang and Buffalo City
Accountability Shifted from provinces to metropolitan municipalities to improve
alignment in the planning and implementation of residential infrastructure and housing projects
Subject to accreditation R300m/year to assist with transition In line with NDP targets 70% of housing backlog is in urban areas
Rental Housing
• Social Housing Regulatory Authority• Capital Restructuring Grant (transferred to SHRA)
• Increase by 12,5% over the MTEF
• Deliver 17 977 medium density rental housing units (households earning
between R1500 and R7500/month)
• Can SHRA deliver on rental housing?
• Due diligence report conducted in Dec-13 found that R336m provided to
Woodglaze trading linked to Jay Singh, in the centre of the Tongaat Mall
collapse, towards the Moko rental housing project in Durban
• Many of the houses built suffered from structural defects
• Rental housing Amendment bill tabled by Connie September (Minister of
Human Settlements) in February 2014
• Green paper for Human Settlement to support the NDP’s vision
Municipal Infrastructure Grant: R44bnProvides basic services to poor households, allocations decrease over MTEF
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
% Change Current 2013 Budget
-5.3%
Department / VoteReal percentage change
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
MIG 6.9 10.7 15.5 -2.4 -5.3 -4.8 -3.3 -4.5
Source: Treasury
Basic services include water, sanitation, lighting and roads
Education Infrastructure Expenditure: R44,5bnBasic Education / Higher education
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/174
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
Basic Education Higher Education
Basic Educa-tion79%
Higher Ed-ucation
and Train-ing21%
Basic EducationR35bn
School infrastructure backlog indirect grant
(23%)
Education infrastructure grant
(75%)
Technical secondary school
recapitalisation grant (2%)
Allocations to school building programme reduced, but still increasing over the medium (R35bn MTEF)
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
% Change Current 2013 Budget
Department / Vote
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Basic Education -20.1 62.9 16.7 21.4 5.6 11.4 -1.6 5.1
Source: Treasury
Education key focus
School infrastructure backlogs grant Replace infrastructure at 510 schools Provide water to 1120 schools Sanitation to 741 schools Electricity to 916 schools In the next two years 143 inappropriate schools will be
completely replaced with new schools Spending project to peak in 2014/15
Education infrastructure conditional grant Primary objective to build new schools and supportive
services (libraries) and basic service (water and sanitation)
Largest sub-programme (75%) R26bn transferred to provinces over the medium term Nominal growth projected for 2014/15 but stronger
increase in allocations projected for 2015/16 Technical secondary schools recapitalization
grant To build 31 new workshops.. Fall in real terms in 2014/15 but show some
improvement in 2015/16
Tertiary institutions infrastructure R9.6 bn allocated over MTEF R2,6 bn allocated for construction of
two new universities Mpumalanga and the Northern Cape
Improve accessibility for disabled persons
Most of allocations are earmarked for universities in historical disadvantaged areas.
Water Infrastructure allocations reduced by still showing positive growth over the medium term: R27bn (MTEF)
99/000
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
% Change Current 2013 Budget
Department / Vote
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Water Infrastructure 20.0 35.9 32.1 5.0 28.4 18.1 -2.1 14.7
Source: Treasury
Sharp increase in water projects at design and feasibility stage, but fewer projects at tender stage
• Total of R124bn projects included in various implementation stages, compared to
R72bn in 2013 Budget
• Decline in the value of projects at tender stage, but strong increase in the value
of projects at feasibility and design stages
Source: Treasury
TCTA:• Expenditure projected to
increase by 10% in real terms in 2014/15 to R4.3bn compared to an increase of R24% in 2013/14
• Contraction of 20% projected for 2015/16, and only inflationary increase projected for 2016/17.
• Budget Review includes details of expenditure by TCTA over the medium term
R1bn allocated for acid mine drainage in 2014/15
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Acid Mine Drainage (TCTA)
• Spending on Lesotho Highlands berg water projected to increase by 36% in 2014/15 to R4,4bn
• Spending on Olifants river water resource development projected to increase by 50% to R1,9bn
Health Infrastructure: R19bnAllocations reduced over the MTEF
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
% Change 2014 Budget Current 2013 Budget
Department / Vote
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Health 22.3 25.4 -7.4 -6.6 3.2 -4.0 -2.0 -0.9
Source: Treasury
Health Infrastructure grants revised in 2013Value of projects at design and feasibility decrease
Hospital revitalisation grant
Health infrastructure grant
Nursing colleges
Health facilities revitalisation grant
Source: Treasury
ProvinciallyDelivered
Nationally Delivered
Summary of key departments Y-Y Change (Real)
Department / Vote
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEF
Transport 6.1% 41.1% -15.2% 0.7% 16.9% 4.3% -2.8% 6.1%
Human Settlements (including grants to provinces)
14.3% 11.9% 1.5% 7.8% 0.0% -1.2% -2.9% -1.3%
Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs
6.9% 10.7% 15.5% -2.4% -5.3% -4.8% -3.3% -4.5%
Basic Education 62.9% 16.7% 21.4% 5.6% 11.4% -1.6% 5.1% 62.9%
Water Affairs 20.0% 35.9% 32.1% 5.0% 28.4% 18.1% -2.1% 14.8%
Health 22.3% 25.4% -7.4% -6.6% 3.2% -4.0% -2.0% -0.9%
Source: Treasury
EnergyEskom, CEF, Dept of Energy
Eskom: R152bn Reducing spending over MTEF
due to financial constraints Central energy Fund:
R13.5bn Solar water heating units Ikwezi R11,2bn) first gas in
June 2014 Sabre Oil and gas in the
Jubilee production field (R4bn) Irene and other downstream
acquisitions (R14bn) – closure in 2014/15
Project Mthombo (Petro Sa initiative) refinery in the COEGA IDZ (by end of March 2015)
Dept of Energy: National Electrification programme: R16.1bn
Indirect conditional grant R3.3bn transferred to Eskom
Source: Treasury
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Eskom
CEF
Electrification programme
SA 12th most attractive investment destination for renewable energy
Integrated resource plan (Dept of Energy) Involves the planning of infrastructure including power stations and
transmission lines by Eskom and IPP’s Focus given to projects that make use of renewable energy
technologies (wind, solar, photovolataic, biomass and hydro), through bidding rounds.
September 2013 – three bidding rounds complete to contact 3900 Mw (R120bn of direct investment in green economy) = less than 20% of 2030 target
By 2030 target of 20 000 MW of additional 29 000 MW should be met by renewable resources
IPP’s will also be introduced to the baseload programme Financial institutions are on board to finance long term projects
60% funded by SA banks Foreign portion of the third window estimated at R15.6bn
Safety Infrastructure Expenditure: R12.9bnDefense, Police, Correctional Services, Justice and Constitutional Development
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/170
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Correctional Services Justice and Constitutional DevDefense Police2013 Budget
Correc-tional
Services19%
Justice and Con-stitutional
Dev21%
Defense33%
Police27%
• Allocations reduced in:• Correctional Services• Defense• Police
• Increased allocations• Justice and Constitutional
Development
Safety related infrastructure
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEFCorrectional Services 950,900 592,400 744,500 803,100 813,000 819,900 863,400 2,496,300Justice and Constitutional Development 542,500 683,600 621,200 784,600 844,500 784,100 1,046,900 2,675,500Defense 699,900 530,700 1,381,700 1,207,700 1,043,300 1,041,300 2,183,500 4,268,100Police 1,118,200 671,100 691,600 1,036,900 1,099,900 1,149,500 1,210,500 3,459,900Total 3,311,500 2,477,800 3,439,000 3,832,300 3,800,700 3,794,800 5,304,300 12,899,800
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEFCorrectional Services 9.7% -41.5% 19.7% 1.8% -6.7% 4.9% 0.0% 9.7%Justice and Constitutional Development -11.6% 18.3% -13.5% 19.2% 8.0% 4.6% 10.6% -11.6%Defense -21.9% -28.8% 148.0% -17.5% 33.9% 54.8% 23.7% -21.9%Police 0.5% -43.6% -1.9% 41.4% -1.4% 12.7% 17.6% 0.5%Total -5.1% -29.7% 32.2% 5.1% -8.2% -7.6% 29.4% -5.1%
Current prices
Real Percentage Change
Special Economic Zone and SIP
Geographically designated areas of a country (or province) set aside for
specifically targeted economic activities, which are then supported
through special arrangements (which may include laws) and support systems that are often
different from those apply in the rest of the country. It is an economic
development tool to promote rapid economic growth by using incentive
packages to attract targeted investments and technology. The
zone act as a magnet for investment by offering quality infrastructure complemented by an attractive incentives package, business
support services, cluster development and minimal red tape.
There are 7 types of SEZ’s:
• A free port, an area adjacent to a port of
entry
• Free trade zones
• Industrial parks
• Science and technology parks
• Sector development zones
• Spatial development corridors
• Industrial Development zones
Source: Treasury
Economic Zones and Industrial Dev Zones
Source: Treasury
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014 MTEFCOEGA 714000 383700 417900 308,200 0 0 0 0East London 198000 171300 150000 100000 0 0 0 0Richards Bay 20000 60700 182000 30000 0 0 0 0CIP 80600 118500 131600 190000 190000 190000 190000 570,000
SEZ's Investment incentives 0 0 5000 500000 450000 1130000 1684500 3,264,500IDZ'S Other 0 0 0 0 200000 70000 50000 320,000
Centurion Aerospace Village 37500 10000 15000 15800 0 0 0 0
SABSA building 174200 93200 48000 0 0 0 0 0Total 1,224,300 837,400 949,500 1,144,000 840,000 1,390,000 1,924,500 4,154,500
Several grants focused on rural development avg R6bn/annum
Municipal Infrastructure grant Integrated national electrification grant Rural households infrastructure grant Rural roads asset management systems grant
Department of Public Works
Public Works: R2.2bn MTEF
Less spending on border management, more spending on management of dolomite risk areas CIDB: Amendments to the Built Environment Professional Bill Policy
Agrement South Africa Bill Expropriation Bill (Expropriation of property for public purposes with compensation) Green building Policy – to promote the green economy through policy framework, creating jobs – minimum of three public sector
green demonstration projects by mid 2014
Source: Treasury
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/170
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
% Change Current #REF!
Procurement, Regulations and Pricing
Centralised procurement via central tender board Not distinctly South African Root out corruption Main function to check on pricing and adherence to procedures / fairness Chief procurement officer appointed : Kenneth Brown
Pricing guide Maintenance National Treasury or Stats SA CPAP
Adjudicating on performance and quality rather than pricing?
“While our ablest civil servants have had great difficulty in optimising procurement, it has yielded rich pickings for those who seek to exploit it.”
Pravin Gordhan, Feb 2013
Improvement in Q3 after slow start to 2013/14Government expenditure:2013/14 Q3 (source National Treasury)
Capital Spending Summary % of budget
Spent(2012/13)
% of budget Spent
(2013/14)
Y-Y per change
Spent Dec
2013Rbn
Provincial
Education64.7 69.3 21.5 6.6 Free State (-44%),
KZN (-7%)Health
62.8 58.0 -15.1 5.26 provinces negative growth,
except NWP (115%), EC (6,4%) Gau (7.8%)
Public works, roads and transport 68.0 68.5 13.6 7.5 Unknown
Limpopo under administration
Human settlement Development Grant
65.5 61.2 -0.4 10.5Limpopo (-44%), Gau (-10%), Mpu
(-11%)EC (24%), KZN (10%), NW (31%),
NC (14%)
Provinces spent R21 bn (or 64.9 percent) of their R32 bn capital budgets, representing an increase of 7,1 percent compared to the previous financial year.
FORECAST
Private sector investment constrained by low confidence
Mar-81 Sep-83 Mar-86 Sep-88 Mar-91 Sep-93 Mar-96 Sep-98 Mar-01 Sep-03 Mar-06 Sep-08 Mar-11 Sep-130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Confidence Private sector investment
Forecasts: Base Case scenario2014Q1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Total construction, Rm 2005 prices (excl equipment) 82,584 83,849 85,911 83,012 86,483 88,029 87,998
% change -20.94% 1.53% 2.46% -3.37% 4.2% 1.8% -0.1%
Building 59500 59432 60193 59866 62296 63599 64326
% change -11.8% -0.1% 1.3% -0.5% 4.1% 2.1% 1.1%
Residential 23956 22902 23344 22547 23,111 23,631 23,158
% change -20.2% -4.4% 1.9% -3.4% 2.5% 2.3% -2.0%
Non-residential 35544 36530 36849 37319 39,185 39,969 41,168
% change -5.1% 2.8% 0.9% 1.3% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Civil Turnover (based on Safcec turnover) 23,084 24,417 25,718 23,146 24,188 24,430 23,672
% change -37.6% 5.8% 5.3% -10.0% 4.5% 1% -3.1%
Source: Industry Insight
Forecast considerations
Building investment remain sensitive to private sector participation Slower growth in public sector infrastructure expenditure over the MTEF, possibly
negative growth Building industry experience lower growth in social infrastructure (housing, health,
education and safety) Lower turning point reached, but recovery slow
Value of building contracts awarded fell by 9,5% y/y in 2013 vs 3,5% increase in the value of civil projects awarded
Improvement in sqm approved (up 9,5% y/y in 2013, compared to 1% in 2012) Residential increase by 5% y/y in 2013 (or 460l sqm est value R3,2bn) compared to -1% in 2012 Non-residential buildings increased by 19% y/y in 2013 (or 854k sqm est value R6bn) compared to 2,8%
increase in 2012 Higher construction cost inflation in 2014
Civil industry benefit from increased expenditure in economic infrastructure in 2014/15, but not sustained over the medium term
Strategic Investment incentives (SIP and SEZ) long lead time Low growth (single digit) scenario for near term
Investment in construction stabilize in low growth environment
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Source: SARB Quarterly Bulletin. SAFCEC, Industry Insight
Thank You
Copies of budget www.treasury.gov.za
Elsie [email protected]
www.industryinsight.co.zaT: 27 21 554 0886 (CT)