national grid
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Transmission of offshore wind power
Dr Richard SmithFuture Transmission Networks Manager
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Gas CCGT Coal CCS
Nuclear Wind Renewable
Interconnector CHP Other
The UK generation mix is changing
2020 generation capacity
~110GW
Change (GW)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
Generation Demand
Gas CCS Interconnector
Nuclear Wind Other renewable
Gas Coal Nuclear
Oil Electric cars* Heat pumps*
The changing mix (GW)
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The delivery challenge:renewable generation connections
2020 transmission connected renewable generation (GW)
0
10
20
30
40
Currentlyconnected
Contracted
Currently connected Under construction
Consents approved Awaiting consents
Scoping
Target
How are we doing against the
Government targets?
Data source: National Grid TNQCU – August 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.
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The delivery challenge:renewable generation connections
2020 transmission connected renewable generation (GW)
0
10
20
30
40
Currentlyconnected
Contracted
Currently connected Offshore wind Other renewable
Target
How are we doing against the
Government targets?
Data source: National Grid TNQCU – August 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.
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Offshore generation scenarios
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030
GW
Slow Progression Gone Green Accelerated Grow th Sustainable Grow th
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France
existing electricity network
potential wind farm sites
potential nuclear sites
interconnectors
The transmission delivery challenge
France
Netherlands
Belgium
Norway
Ireland
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Technology development
Technology
Research & DevelopmentOngoing research into state of the art technology and future growth requirements which may offer efficiencies through larger capacities, greater reliability and increased control options.
Technology EvolutionManufacturers confident of larger HVDC VSC converters and cables will be available in the short to medium times.
Promoting standardisation of assets
Extruded HVDC Cables
HVDC Offshore Projects
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Planning consentsSellindge
(Kent)2GW HVDC
converter
Sellindge (Kent)
2GW HVDC converter
WestminsterWestminster
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GenerationDemand
Variable generation
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
01-J
an
05-J
an
10-J
an
15-J
an
20-J
an
25-J
an
30-J
an
01-J
an
05-J
an
10-J
an
15-J
an
20-J
an
25-J
an
30-J
an
MW
Large generation
Inflexible generation
Active distribution networks
Smart(er) grids & meters, energy storage
Active demand
Time of use tariffs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
Time of Day
Ele
ctri
city
Dem
and
(GW
)
2020 Demand ~ 15GWh (daily) - 1.5million vehicles
Typical winter dailydemand
Pea
k C
omm
utin
g Ti
me
12,000 miles p.a.
Pea
k C
omm
utin
g Ti
me
Optimal Charging Period
Distributed generation
Smarter transmission
Smart zonesHVDCSeries compensationWAM
How will we balance supplyand demand?
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82 year daily wind loadfactor
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
01-Oct
01-Nov
01-Dec
01-Jan
01-Feb
01-Mar
01-Apr
01-May
01-Jun
01-Jul
01-Aug
01-Sep
Lo
ad
fac
tor
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Daily wind loadfactor percentiles82 year data set - 15 day rolling average
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
01
-Oct
01
-No
v
01
-De
c
01
-Ja
n
01
-Fe
b
01
-Ma
r
01
-Ap
r
01
-Ma
y
01
-Ju
n
01
-Ju
l
01
-Au
g
01
-Se
p
Da
ily w
ind
loa
dfa
cto
r
99th percentile
95th percentile
90th percentile
50th percentile
10th percentile
5th percentile
1st percentile
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Gone Green installed capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GW
CCGT Wind CCGT at 90% operational availability Wind at 35% loadfactor
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• National Grid’s focus: ensuring we facilitate a secure, low carbon energy solution
• Integrated transmission solutions are key to maximising deliverability of offshore wind
• CCGTs important managing variability and balancing – implications for gas transmission network
• Significant change in UK generation mix• Offshore wind a key feature• Planning, financing and technology uncertainties exist• Increased volatility brings new balancing challenges
Summary