national exercise division (ned) national exercise progg

Exercise Modeling & Simulation gBriefing

National Exercise Division (NED)National Exercise Program (NEP)g ( )National Exercise Simulation Center (NESC)

Dr. Keith HoltermannDirector, National Exercise DivisionMarch 4, 2010

Dr. Keith Holtermann February 18, 2010

Objectives of the Presentationj

NED NEP Overview NED-NEP Overview

NESC Mission and Objectives

NESC Business Model NESC Business Model

Introduce the M&S Value Proposition

E ercise Modeling and Sim lation Concepts Exercise Modeling and Simulation Concepts

Demonstrate How the NED/NEP/NESC are Instituting Exercise M&S

Dr. Keith Holtermann February 18, 2010 2

NEP Componentsp NEP program components include:

National-Level Exercise (NLEs) (Annual NEP Tier I exercise) (national security and/or homeland security exercises centered on White House directed, USG-wide strategy and policy)

Principal-Level Exercise (PLEs) (Quarterly Presidential Cabinet levelPrincipal Level Exercise (PLEs) (Quarterly Presidential Cabinet level exercises focused on current USG-wide strategic issues)

NEP Five-Year Exercise Schedule of NLE/PLE and significant NEP Ti d i ith t t i USG id fTiered exercises with a strategic USG-wide focus

National Exercise Schedule (NEXS) (schedule of all Federal, Regional, State, and local exercises)

Corrective Action Program (CAP)

Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP)

Dr. Keith Holtermann February 18, 2010

NESC Foundation & Organization References & Authorities: The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned, page 119 Sec 664 DHS Appropriations Act 2007 Sec. 664, DHS Appropriations Act, 2007 Sec. 664, Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006

The NESC falls into the current organizational structure Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

National Preparedness Directorate (NPD)

N ti l E i Di i i / N ti l E i P (NED NEP)

Th NESC f ll t bli h d 1/12/09 d i t f th

National Exercise Division / National Exercise Program (NED – NEP)National Exercise Simulation Center (NESC)

The NESC was formally established 1/12/09 and is a component of the National Exercise Division. NESC supports NED’s role as the executive agent for the National Exercise Program (NEP)


NESC Mission & Objectives Mission: To enhance the Department’s all-hazards preparedness and

response mission through the promotion of effective and efficient large-scale exercises and the application of modeling and simulation to thesescale exercises and the application of modeling and simulation to these exercises.

The NESC’s primary objectives include providing a state-of-the-art control & simulation center to support national federal state local andcontrol & simulation center to support national, federal, state, local, and tribal exercises by: Acting as the central resource hub linking exercise personnel and operational

planning personnel to EXISTING modeling and simulation capabilitiesplanning personnel to EXISTING modeling and simulation capabilities Assist advanced operational planners by modeling what an evolving situation may

look like Assisting planners in testing their plans while they are being developed

#1 Challenge: Change the Culture of Exercises –introduce M&S as a way of increasing efficiency and creating higher yield metric based exercises (e.g.


g g y ( grun/rerun)

NESC Integration into the P d C lPreparedness Cycle ExerciseExercise Computer-based Simulation Human-based Simulation

(SimCell)

Evaluate/Improve Control Cell

PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS Quantitative Metrics Analysis

integrated into AARs, IPs, CAPs

Plan

PREPAREDNESS CYCLE

PREPAREDNESS CYCLE

Plan Support of Exercise Design and

Delivery


NESC Simulation Categorization NESC Core

CustomerService Offerings

Computer Improvement Exercise Design & D li

Human/SME g

Single Participant Multi Participant

Human in the Loop

Modeling & Simulation Ops

Management & Exercise Eval Plans

& Delivery

LogOps

Modeling & Simulation

CDP IC Training

g p p

ninge CPR Mannequin CDP IC Training

Trai

n

on P

urpo

s CPR Mannequin

Flight Simulator

Exe

rcis

e

Sim

ulat

io

NESCE N SC

NESC = Multi-participant Exercise Simulations


p p

NESC Business Model• Modeling and Simulation

Repository• SimCell

• Red Teaming• What If Analysis (Analysis

of Alternatives)CustomerTailored

Service Offerings

• SimCell• Exercise Control & Evaluation • Advanced Operational

Planning

of Alternatives)• Quantitative Analysis

Support• Others

Customer

NESC Core (State-of-the-Art Center)

g

C I E i D iComputer Modeling & Simulation

Human/SME Simulation

Improvement Management & Exercise Eval

Exercise Design & Delivery

LogOpsPlans

SMEs and Capabilities Available Through Contract Vehicles MOUs MOAs & IAAsSMEs and Capabilities Available Through Contract Vehicles, MOUs, MOAs, & IAAs


NESC Core Capabilities F iliti Facilities Space in FEMA HQ capable of supporting Control and Simulation Cell activities Space to support up to 100 personnel in the main NESC space Be capable of efficiently surging into other FEMA space in the building

Audio/Visual Audio/Visual Conduct, monitor, and manage video teleconferencing (VTC) Display data or video from a variety of sources on networked screens within the NESC Ability to access audio from display screens at each workstation Access to the Virtual News Network (VNN) and champion its further virtual world build-out( ) p Ability to project audio selectively throughout the NESC, the Web, and other sources Integrated conference call system Access to information sharing capabilities

IT Access to a shared drive, Internet, and Email for

every workstation Ability to push content from any computer to any

other computer or large monitor screen Scanning copying and printing capabilities Scanning, copying, and printing capabilities

Security Ability to work in all security level environements Work in compliance with IT security protocol


What types of simulation?yp The NESC is focused on utilizing decision support simulation to

increase exercise realism and immersion in lifelike scenarios

Computer BasedComputer BasedHuman Based SimulationHuman Based Simulation

Human Based Simulation (actors) Computer Based Simulation

Computer Based SimulationVirtual Worlds (Avatars)Plume Modeling

Computer Based SimulationVirtual Worlds (Avatars)Plume Modeling

Human Based SimulationVirtual News Network (VNN)SIMCELL role playersActors, Make-up

Human Based SimulationVirtual News Network (VNN)SIMCELL role playersActors, Make-up

Disease PropagationAgent Based SimulationDisease PropagationAgent Based Simulation


Example Human SimulationVi l N N k (VNN)

NESC Core


Exercise Design Human/SME ImprovementComputerVirtual News Network (VNN)

All ll ti i t t i t

OpsPlans

g& Delivery

LogOps

Human/SME Modeling & Simulation

Improvement Management & Exercise Eval

Computer Modeling & Simulation

Allow all participants to view events and what is being communicated to the public;

Enable controllers to insert injects into exercise play;

Test public information officer’s ability Test public information officer s ability to deliver a coordinated message during a time of a threat;

Move the exercise forward by offering a way to introduce injects.


Benefits of Utilizing Virtual Worlds such as:OnLine Interactive Virtual Environment (OLIVE) NESC Core


Computer Modeling & Simulation Ops

Improvement Management & Exercise Eval Plans


LogOps


Key Features: Bring geographically disparate people together:

Geographically disparate community can participate

( )

Geographically disparate community can participate without requiring travel or incurring other costs

Face-to-face interaction & feeling of presence/connectednessp

Collaboration & communication as part of the decision-making process

Training & Exercise activities and Role-play scenarios

Replay decisions: Replay decision-making processes to review or validate the results with others


NESC Simulation Hub and Spokes NESC Core


Computer Modeling &

Improvement Management &


Human/SME Modeling &

The Simulation Hub portion of the NESC will be developed to provide connectivity to experimentation, modeling, and

gSimulation Ops

gExercise Eval Plans LogOps

gSimulation

simulation capabilities distributed throughout the country

An inventory of existing and developmental capabilities will be conducted to identify networked means of providing access for use during exercises planning and real-world

Sandia

TEEX

exercises, planning, and real-world response

Support from the working group to identify additional tools assets andidentify additional tools, assets, and resources will enhance the available capabilities


Benefits of Computer SimulationCustomer

Service Offeringsp Enhanced Realism – Increases the realism

participants experience throughout the exercise

Multiple Outcomes - Potential for efficient multiple

NESC Core




LogOps


p pdynamically derived outcomes. Roll up performance metrics from multi-jurisdictional exercise into single location X = f (1,2,3,4)( , , , ) ROI & Cost-Benefit Analyses

Run & Re-run – Provides a mechanism to show the responder the downstream impact to his/her d i i P ti i t l lt tidecision. Participants can explore alternative courses of action in real-time and react to and go beyond their initial decisions (What ifs?)

Decision Timing – draws out collaborativeDecision Timing draws out collaborative opportunities and the appropriate timing for engagement in these opportunities

Challenge of Exercise Culture Change - expanding


Challenge of Exercise Culture Change expanding the use and acceptance of computer simulation as a valuable exercise aid across the community

Comparison of Outcomes NESC Core



Human/SME

PredictableControl Intervention

Time

Modeling & Simulation Ops


& Delivery

LogOps


Decision 1 Decision 2 Decision 3

PredictableExercise Outcome

CD i i 4

Time

A

FED Decision 4

Decision 3 Decision 5

Bounds

Decision 1 Impactsimulated

BDecision 2

FG

Impactsimulated

Decision 6 1B2G6 1B2F6 1B2E51B2F5 1A3D5 1A3C4


simulatedthrough Model 1

simulatedthrough Model 2

1B2F5 1A3D5 1A3C4

Quantifiable Dynamic Outcomes

Impact of Time on Decisions (in simulation)

NESC Core


Computer Modeling &



Human/SME Modeling & (in simulation)

Within a given situation, the timing of a decision can have as much impact on the outcome as the actual decision itself

gSimulation Ops


gSimulation

much impact on the outcome as the actual decision itself

Simulation allows for a more realistic timing component to be added it was previously unavailableadded it was previously unavailable

AD

Time

ADecision 3 Decision 5Decision 1

AD

AD

Decision 3 Decision 5Decision 1


1A3D5 1A3D5 1A3D5Decision 3 Decision 5Decision 1

Early Successes NESC Core


Computer Modeling &



Human/SME Modeling &

y Goal is to operationalize 5-

6 models with limited inputs

Exercise M&Sg

Simulation Ops


gSimulation

to provide greater degree of immersion to participants Model/Simulation will NOT drive

Decision Model

the exercise, but rather provide inputs to and impacts of decisions made during the course of the exercise.

MSELs

course of the exercise. Capability Model

on onDecision

Scenario Modelnf

orm

atio

nfor

mat

io

Decision Point


In In

M&S Future Operating Model NESC Core

CustomerService Offeringsp g

Catalogue of Current

1. Create and Maintain a catalogue of available Models and Simulations




LogOps


Models and Simulations

available Models and Simulations

2. Utilize a screening process for selection of simulation drivers

3 C t i M&S th h NESC3. Categorize M&S through NESC Construct

4. Facilitate linkage to exercise planners th h l tf

Screening Process

Construct for the Exercise Requirement

through common platform

Common Platform


Standard Unified Modeling Mapping Integration Toolkit (SUMMIT)

NESC Core





LogOps


Objective: Allow discovery of

models/data/expertise applicable to

g ( )

models/data/expertise applicable to specified hazard, region, and objective

Enable simulations that can be rapidly localized to a specified region bylocalized to a specified region by facilitating their connections to foundational data

Enable connection (federation) of ( )diverse modeling components

Enable integrated display of data and simulation results

Explore advanced collaboration, delivery and deployment mechanisms


NESC M&S Technical Goals

E-

Le

DHS TELL SystemExercise Mgmt Sys

Virtual World OLIVE SUMMIT

Model 1Sandia

Model 2LLNL

NxM

SE

L

mail and C

Capabilit

ssons Lea

File Shari

DataData

Data

L Chat

ty arned

ng

P i i l B fit f C t St t Ch ll t O

Model 3DoE

Model 4DoT

Data

Increased efficiency Captures current investment by DHS S&T Enhanced exercise realism

Principal Benefits of Current Strategy Challenges to Overcome Culture Technology integration PolicyEnhanced exercise realism

Highlights impacts of decision timing Multiple outcomes option / run & rerun (useful for

planners) Supports the goal of incorporating M&S into the

Policy Security Training


pp g p gculture of exercises

Example Hurricane User InterfaceSUMMIT used within OLIVE

NESC Core



Human/SME SUMMIT used within OLIVE Modeling & Simulation Ops


& Delivery

LogOps


Virtual M&S ToolsVirtual M&S Tools utilized by

controllers and simulation team to interact with

the exercise as it is in progress


General NESC Contact InformationGeneral NESC Contact Information Email: [email protected]@ g

Telephone: 202-212-4800

Questions?Questions?


national exercise division (ned) national exercise progg

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