national economic trends - federal reserve bank of st. louis · 2011. 11. 1. · national economic...

November 2011NationalEconomicTrends

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.

In early 2010, the spot price of Brent crude oil—theEuropean petroleum industry benchmark—began to riserelative to the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

crude oil—the U.S. benchmark. WTI has usually traded at apremium to Brent. From January 1985 to December 2009, theWTI premium averaged roughly 5.5 percent ($1.33 per barrel)relative to Brent. Since January 2010, the spot price of WTIhas traded an average of roughly 5.25 percent ($5.17 per barrel)below that for Brent. The chart shows that the premium widenedin 2011 to an average of roughly 14 percent ($13.93 per barrel).Moreover, the price of WTI seems to have diverged from theprices of other domestic (U.S.) crude oil grades, such asLouisiana Sweet or Alaska North Slope.

Should this price divergence cause forecasters to use Brentrather than WTI to forecast U.S. gasoline prices? The answerdepends on whether this divergence persists. Many energyanalysts believe the relative decline in WTI prices reflects anincrease in the supply of crude oil flowing into the Cushing,Oklahoma, terminal (where WTI is priced) as a result ofincreases in (i) crude oil imports from Canadian oil sands and(ii) crude oil production at the Bakken shale formation in theNorthern Plains. The surge in supply from these two sources hasalready spurred actions to alleviate the bottleneck at Cushing,including new pipelines and shipment of oil by rail directlyfrom North Dakota to West Coast oil refineries. Thus, over time,WTI prices may adjust to historical norms (relative to othergrades). However, some energy economists, who point to thesteady decline in production from North Sea oil fields and theso-called dieselization of European motor vehicle markets, con-tend that the WTI-Brent divergence will likely be long lasting,if not permanent.1

Using historical data leading up to 2010, we constructedforecasts of retail monthly gasoline prices from January 2010to July 2011 (the period of divergence) to determine whetherWTI is still as accurate a predictor of gasoline prices as Brent.The chart plots actual retail gasoline prices and forecasts ofgasoline prices based on Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Thechart indicates that both oil prices were accurate predictors ofgasoline prices in 2010. Beginning in January 2011, however,WTI oil prices underpredicted the rise in gasoline prices, whichpeaked at a little less than $4.00 per gallon in May 2011. Brent,on the other hand, appears to have better predicted the run-up

in gasoline prices in 2011 but not to have fully anticipated thepeak in prices. Since May 2011, however, Brent appears tohave been a better predictor of gasoline prices than WTI.

To confirm this finding, we constructed root mean squaredforecast errors (RMSE) for each of the Brent- and WTI-basedgasoline forecasts from January 2010 to July 2011. The RMSEis a common statistic for assessing the accuracy of time-seriesforecasts. In results not reported here, the RMSE using Brentprices over this period was a little more than 9 cents per gallon,whereas that for WTI was a little less than 23 cents per gallon.

In summary, this simple forecasting analysis suggests thatif the divergence between WTI and Brent prices persists, econ-omists and energy analysts may want to focus on the latterbenchmark when predicting the level of gasoline prices.

—Kevin L. Kliesen and Michael T. Owyang

1 See Verleger, Philip K. Jr. “The Margin, Currency, and the Price of Oil.”Business Economics, April 2011, 46(2), pp. 71-82.

research.stlouisfed.org

Using Brent and WTI Oil Prices to Predict Gasoline Prices

U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices: Actual and Brent- and WTI-Based Forecasts

Cents per Gallon450

400

350

300

250

200

150Jan. 09 Jul. 09 Jan. 10 Jul. 10 Jan. 11 Jul. 11

NOTE: Data and forecasting through July 2011.

Actual Gasoline Prices

Brent-Based Forecasts

WTI-Based Forecasts

Contents

Page

3 Economy at a Glance

4 Output and Growth

7 Interest Rates

8 Inflation and Prices

10 Labor Markets

12 Consumer Spending

14 Investment Spending

16 Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt

18 International Trade

20 Productivity and Profits

22 FOMC Economic Projections

24 Quick Reference Tables

29 Notes and Sources

Conventions used in this publication:

1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from thesame month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate wouldbe over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compoundedannual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /xt – 1)4–1] × 100.For monthly data replace 4 with 12.

3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA.

We welcome your comments addressed to:

Editor, National Economic TrendsResearch DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. LouisP.O. Box 442St. Louis, MO 63166-0442

or to:

[email protected]

National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net todownload the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call(314) 444-8573.

National Economic Trendsupdated through11/16/11

3Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2008 2009 2010 2011

Compounded annual rates of change

Real GDP Growth

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

17532 17898 18263 18628 189932008 2009 2010 2011

Percent change

Consumer Price Index

-2.0

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

17532 17898 18263 18628 18993

2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent change

Industrial Production

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

17532 17898 18263 18628 189932008 2009 2010 2011

Percent

10-YearTreasury

3-MonthTreasury

Interest Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

17532 17898 18263 18628 18993

2008 2009 2010 2011

Thousands

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

17532 17898 18263 18628 189932008 2009 2010 2011

Percent of labor force

Unemployment Rate

4.2

5.2

6.2

7.2

8.2

9.2

10.2

11.2

17532 17898 18263 18628 18993

National Economic Trendsupdated through

11/16/11

4Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago

Real Gross Domestic Product

-10

-5

0

5

10

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago Index

Industrial Production(left scale)

ISM(right scale)

Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

26

34

42

50

58

66

74

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent of GDP

Real Change in Private Inventories

-2

-1

0

1

2

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12



2009 2010 2011


FinalSalesGDP (bar)

Real Final Sales and GDP

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

Percent change Index

ISM(right scale)

Industrial Production (bar)(left scale)

Industrial Production and ISM Index

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

17898 18263 18628 18993

32

38

44

50

56

62

68

2009 2010 2011


Nominal Gross Domestic Product

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

Percent change

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

-1.50

-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011

Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

32.75

33.00

33.25

33.50

33.75

34.00

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

Billions of 2005 dollars

Real Change in Private Inventories

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011

Manufacturing and trade

Inventory-Sales Ratio

1.18

1.22

1.26

1.30

1.34

1.38

1.42

1.46

1.50

17898 18263 18628 18993


Real GDP Revisions

Advance

Second

Third

Annual Revision

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3


10/27/11

6Research Division


Contribution of Components to Real GDP GrowthPercentage points at compounded annual rates

Consumption Exports GovernmentImports Inventories Investment

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3

Final Sales -0.13 0.83 3.00 1.65 4.14 0.04 1.61 3.54

Consumption 0.33 1.92 2.05 1.85 2.48 1.47 0.49 1.72

Fixed Investment -0.42 0.15 2.12 0.28 0.88 0.15 1.07 1.60

Nonresidential -0.33 0.56 1.62 1.04 0.82 0.20 0.98 1.54

Residential -0.10 -0.41 0.50 -0.76 0.06 -0.06 0.09 0.05

Government -0.18 -0.26 0.77 0.20 -0.58 -1.23 -0.18 0.00

Federal 0.18 0.23 0.71 0.26 -0.26 -0.82 0.16 0.16

State and Local -0.37 -0.49 0.05 -0.06 -0.33 -0.41 -0.34 -0.16

Net Exports 0.15 -0.97 -1.94 -0.68 1.37 -0.34 0.24 0.22

Exports 2.51 0.86 1.19 1.21 0.98 1.01 0.48 0.55

Imports -2.36 -1.83 -3.13 -1.89 0.39 -1.35 -0.24 -0.34

Change in Inventory 3.93 3.10 0.79 0.86 -1.79 0.32 -0.28 -1.08

Residual 0.06 0.00 -0.16 -0.02 -0.23 -0.10 -0.07 -0.17

Real GDP Growth 3.80 3.93 3.79 2.51 2.35 0.36 1.33 2.46

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate

4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd

201120102009



86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent

10-Year Treasury

3-Month Treasury

Interest Rates

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

3m.

1y 2y 5y 7y 10y

Percent

Week Ending: 11/04/2011

|||

Oct 2011

Oct 2010

Treasury Yield Curve

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


11/16/11

8Research Division


86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


GDP

Gross Domestic Purchases

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

-2

0

2

4

6

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


All Items

Excl. Foodand Energy


-2

0

2

4

6

8

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


PPI

Excl. Foodand Energy

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


ECI

Comp. per Hour

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour

0

3

6

9

12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12



2009 2010 2011


GDP (bar)

Gross DomesticPurchases

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


CPI (bar)

Excl. Food& Energy


-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011

PCE (bar)Excl. Food& Energy


Consumption Chain Price Index

-3

0

3

6

9

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


PPI (bar)

Excl. Food& Energy

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011


Nonfarm

Manufacturing (bar)

Unit Labor Cost

-12

-6

0

6

12

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


Compensation per Hour

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

17898 18263 18628 18993

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dollars per barrel Dollars per million btu

Note: Futures prices as of 10/31/2011.

Spot Oil(left scale)

Oil Futures(left scale)

Spot Gas(right scale) Gas Futures (right scale)

Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures

12

36

60

84

108

132

156

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Compensation

|||||

Wages and Salaries

Benefits

Employment Cost Index

0

1

2

3

4

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993


11/04/11

10Research Division


86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Household Survey

Payroll Survey

Employment

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent of labor force Percent of population

Unemployment Rate(left scale)

Employment/Population(right scale)

Labor Force/Population(right scale)

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates

0

3

6

9

12

15

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

55

58

61

64

67

70

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent of labor force Weeks

Median(right scale)

Unemployed < 5 Weeks(left scale)

Unemployed > 15 Weeks(left scale)

Duration of Unemployment

0.00

0.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.50

5.25

6.00

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

4

7

10

13

16

19

22

25

28



2009 2010 2011

Thousands

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011

Thousands

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

Thousands

Change in Household Employment

-1200

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

17898 18263 18628 18993

90%

Con

fiden

ce

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent of labor force

Available Labor Supply and Components

Want to Work

UnemployedAvailable Labor Supply

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Labor Force

Pop.

Labor Force and Population

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PercentPercent

Job Openings Rate(right scale)

Unemployment Rate(left scale)

Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993 19359

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

90%

Con

fiden

ce


11/15/11

12Research Division


86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

Total(right scale)

Durables(left scale)

Real Consumption

-16

-8

0

8

16

24

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago, quarterly average

Retail and Food Services Sales

*Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note).

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

Real Disposable Personal Income

-4

0

4

8

12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income

Debt Service Payments(right scale)

Household Debt Outstanding(left scale)

Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15



2009 2010 2011


Real Consumption

-4.5

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-012009 2010 2011

Percent change

Real Consumption

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-01

2009 2010 2011

Percent change

Total (bar)

Ex.Autos

Retail & Food Services

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

Percent change

Real Disposable Personal Income

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-01

2009 2010 2011

Millions of vehicles, annual ratePercent change

Autos and Light Trucks(right scale)

Durables (bar)(left scale)

Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales

-10

-5

0

5

10

17898 18263 18628 18993

3

9

15

21

27

2009 2010 2011


Real Durables Consumption

-7.5

0.0

7.5

15.0

22.5

30.0

2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-01

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent

Personal Saving Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Index

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993


10/27/11

14Research Division


86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent of nominal GDP

Total

Private

Investment

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Private Fixed Investment

Real

Nominal

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Nonresidential

Equipment &Software

Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Real Residential Fixed Investment

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12



86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Gross Govt. Saving

Gross Private Saving

BOCA

Percent of GDP

Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

2009 2010 2011


Real Private Fixed Investment

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


Real Equipment & Software Investment

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011


Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


Real Residential Fixed Investment

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011

Millions, annual rate Millions, annual rate

Housing Starts(left scale)

New Home Sales(right scale)

Housing Starts and New Home Sales

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

17898 18263 18628 18993

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft

Orders

Equipment & SoftwareInvestment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

16802 17167 17532 17898 18263 18628 18993


10/27/11

16Research Division


Billions of 2005 dollars

Total

Federal

State & Local

Govt. Consumption and Investment

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Percent of GDP

Total Receipts

Total Expenditures

Fed. Receipts

Fed. Expenditures

Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures

15

21

27

33

39

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

1996 1045.1 1022.1 23.0 1526.4 1674.7 -148.3 1453.1 1560.5 -107.4

1997 1099.5 1063.2 36.3 1656.2 1716.3 -60.1 1579.2 1601.1 -21.9

1998 1164.5 1117.6 46.9 1777.9 1744.3 33.6 1721.7 1652.5 69.3

1999 1240.4 1198.6 41.8 1895.0 1796.2 98.8 1827.5 1701.8 125.6

2000 1322.6 1281.3 41.3 2057.1 1871.9 185.2 2025.2 1789.0 236.2

2001 1374.0 1389.9 -15.9 2020.3 1979.8 40.5 1991.1 1862.8 128.2

2002 1412.7 1466.8 -54.1 1859.3 2112.1 -252.8 1853.1 2010.9 -157.8

2003 1496.3 1535.1 -38.8 1885.1 2261.5 -376.4 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6

2004 1601.0 1609.3 -8.3 2013.9 2393.4 -379.5 1880.1 2292.8 -412.7

2005 1730.4 1704.5 25.9 2290.1 2573.1 -283.0 2153.6 2472.0 -318.3

2006 1829.7 1778.6 51.1 2524.5 2728.3 -203.8 2406.9 2655.1 -248.2

2007 1923.1 1910.8 12.3 2654.7 2900.0 -245.3 2568.0 2728.7 -160.7

2008 1944.8 2017.0 -72.2 2502.2 3115.7 -613.5 2524.0 2982.5 -458.6

2009 1953.6 2031.7 -78.1 2232.5 3450.4 -1218 2105.0 3517.7 -1413

2010 2064.7 2090.0 -25.3 2429.6 3703.3 -1274 2162.7 3456.2 -1293

2009Q4 1999.2 2044.0 -44.8 2268.5 3537.9 -1269 487.8 875.8 -388.1

2010Q1 2034.0 2066.2 -32.2 2364.8 3636.6 -1272 466.1 795.0 -328.9

2010Q2 2043.3 2071.6 -28.3 2407.8 3685.8 -1278 643.1 930.1 -287.0

2010Q3 2082.1 2087.4 -5.3 2475.4 3733.1 -1258 564.7 854.9 -290.2

2010Q4 2099.3 2134.8 -35.5 2470.5 3757.8 -1287 531.8 900.8 -369.0

2011Q1 2092.5 2149.7 -57.2 2527.9 3729.0 -1201 488.1 948.6 -460.5

2011Q2 2128.0 2168.2 -40.2 2564.4 3829.5 -1265 714.1 855.2 -141.1

2011Q3 . 2138.5 . . 3746.4 . 568.5 896.6 -328.1

Government BudgetsBillions of dollars

Receipts ExpendituresSurplus orDeficit (-) Receipts Expenditures

Surplus orDeficit (-) Receipts Outlays

Surplus orDeficit (-)

State and Local Federal Federal

National Income AccountsCalendar Years

Unified BudgetFiscal Years



Percent of GDP

Total

Held by Public

Federal Debt

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Percent of GDP

Total

Held by Public

Change in Federal Debt

-4

0

4

8

12

16

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Percent of GDP

NIPA

UnifiedBudget

Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-)

NIPA: Net government saving.

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Billions of dollars, fiscal years

Total

Excl. interestpayments

Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

2008 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2802.4

2009 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6

2010 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.2

2008 March 9437.6 4103.6 5334.0 591.2 4742.9 2506.3

June 9492.0 4207.0 5285.0 478.8 4806.2 2587.4

September 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2802.4

December 10699.8 4327.2 6372.7 475.9 5893.4 3077.2

2009 March 11126.9 4290.6 6836.3 492.3 6341.7 3265.7

June 11545.3 4368.8 7176.5 656.5 6518.5 3460.8

September 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6

December 12311.4 4497.0 7814.4 776.6 7034.4 3685.1

2010 March 12773.1 4478.9 8294.3 776.7 7513.3 3877.8

June 13201.8 4562.6 8639.2 777.0 7856.7 4070.0

September 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.2

December 14025.2 4629.8 9395.4 1021.5 8368.9 4437.9

2011 March 14270.1 4613.6 9656.6 1340.5 8311.1 4479.3

June 14343.1 4596.2 9746.9 1619.5 8122.7 4499.2

Federal Government DebtBillions of dollars, end of month or fiscal yearExcludes Agency-issued debt

Held by Public Held by Private Investors Total

Public Debt

Held byAgencies

and Trusts TotalFederal

Reserve Banks TotalForeign andInternational


11/02/11

18Research Division


Goods Export Shares, 2010

Japan4.69%

China7.13%

Mexico12.69%

UK3.76%

All Other30.19%

France2.09%

Other OECD16.39%

Canada19.33%

Germany3.74%

Goods Import Shares, 2010

Japan6.23%

China18.86%

Mexico11.88%

UK2.57%

All Other27.67%

France1.98% Other OECD

12.19%

Canada14.35%

Germany4.26%

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP

Investment Income(left scale)

Goods and Services(left scale)

Current Account(right scale)

Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances

-220

-200

-180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Index, March 1973 = 100

Major Currency Index(left scale)

Yen/US$

Yen(right scale)

100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$)

Ecu(right scale)

Euro(right scale)

Exchange Rates

60

80

100

120

140

160

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

0

75

150

225

300

375



2009 2010 2011

Billions of dollars

Goods and Services

Goods

Trade Balance

-72

-60

-48

-36

-24

-12

0

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

Billions of dollars

Current Account Balance

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


Imports

Exports

Goods Trade

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011


Imports

Exports

Services Trade

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

17898 18263 18628 18993

2009 2010 2011

United Kingdom

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading PartnersCompounded annual rates of change

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

09 10 11 12

2009 2010 2011

Japan

-32-24-16-808

16

09 10 11 12

2009 2010 2011

Germany

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

09 10 11 12

2009 2010 2011

France

-9-6-30369

09 10 11 122009 2010 2011

Canada

-9-6-30369

09 10 11 12

2009 2010 2011

Mexico

-32-24-16-808

16

09 10 11 12


11/16/11

20Research Division


86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent change from year ago Percent

Output/Hour(left scale)

Utilization Rate (level)(right scale)

Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing

*Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note).

-6

0

6

12

18

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

50

60

70

80

90

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Nominal

Real

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour

-5

0

5

10

15

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Nonfarm Business Sector

Nonfinancial Corporations

Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations

-4

0

4

8

12

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12



2009 2010 2011


Nonfarm Output per Hour

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

17898 18263 18628 189932009 2010 2011


Manufacturing Output per Hour

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

17898 18263 18628 18993

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent Percent

Compensation(right scale)

Corporate Profits(left scale)

Proprietors' Income(left scale)

Selected Component Shares of National Income

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Percent of GDP

Profits (Before Tax)

Profits (After Tax)

Corporate Profits

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12


11/03/11

22Research Division


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long

Change in Real GDP (Q4/Q4)Percent

Actual

Run

November 2011 FOMC Projections

-6

-3

0

3

6

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long

Unemployment Rate (Q4)Percent

Actual

Run

3

5

7

9

11

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long

Change in PCE Price Index (Q4/Q4)Percent

Actual

Run

0

1

2

3

4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long

Change in PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy Prices (Q4/Q4)Percent

Actual

Run

0

1

2

3

4



2008 2009 2010 2011

Change in Real GDP for 2011Percent

FOMC Quarterly Projections for 2011 and 2012: A Timeline

Oct. 2008Nov. 2011

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

2008 2009 2010 2011

Unemployment Rate for 2011 (Q4)Percent

Oct. 2008

Nov. 2011

4

6

8

10

2008 2009 2010 2011

Change in PCE Price Index for 2011Percent

Oct. 2008

Nov. 2011

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2009 2010 2011

Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2011Percent

Oct. 2008

Nov. 2011

0

1

2

3

2009 2010 2011

Change in Real GDP for 2012Percent

Oct. 2009

Nov. 20111.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

2009 2010 2011

Unemployment Rate for 2012 (Q4)Percent

Oct. 2009

Nov. 2011

4

6

8

10

2009 2010 2011

Change in PCE Price Index for 2012Percent

Oct. 2009

Nov. 2011

0

1

2

3

4

2009 2010 2011

Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2012Percent

Oct. 2009

Nov. 2011

0

1

2

3


10/27/11

24Research Division


2007. 14028.7 . 4.9 13206.365 . 1.9 13177.548 . 2.2 . 27.725

2008. 14291.5 . 1.9 13161.939 . -0.3 13200.544 . 0.2 . -36.266

2009. 13939.0 . -2.5 12703.117 . -3.5 12852.658 . -2.6 . -144.938

2010. 14526.5 . 4.2 13087.981 . 3.0 13028.945 . 1.4 . 58.781

2008 1 14273.9 0.6 3.7 13266.834 -1.8 1.6 13277.785 -1.1 1.8 -12.497 20.270

. 2 14415.5 4.0 3.1 13310.467 1.3 1.0 13325.894 1.5 1.5 -14.172 5.510

. 3 14395.1 -0.6 1.9 13186.925 -3.7 -0.6 13225.601 -3.0 -0.0 -38.131 -13.046

. 4 14081.7 -8.4 -1.2 12883.531 -8.9 -3.3 12972.897 -7.4 -2.6 -80.265 -36.266

2009 1 13893.7 -5.2 -2.7 12663.229 -6.7 -4.5 12836.021 -4.2 -3.3 -161.578 -73.537

. 2 13854.1 -1.1 -3.9 12641.271 -0.7 -5.0 12830.000 -0.2 -3.7 -182.985 -115.740

. 3 13920.5 1.9 -3.3 12694.517 1.7 -3.7 12875.093 1.4 -2.7 -178.738 -150.892

. 4 14087.4 4.9 0.0 12813.452 3.8 -0.5 12869.517 -0.2 -0.8 -56.451 -144.938

2010 1 14277.9 5.5 2.8 12937.744 3.9 2.2 12895.944 0.8 0.5 39.931 -94.561

. 2 14467.8 5.4 4.4 13058.482 3.8 3.3 12992.183 3.0 1.3 64.623 -32.659

. 3 14605.5 3.9 4.9 13139.590 2.5 3.5 13046.008 1.7 1.3 92.256 35.090

. 4 14755.0 4.2 4.7 13216.107 2.3 3.1 13181.645 4.2 2.4 38.316 58.782

2011 1 14867.8 3.1 4.1 13227.871 0.4 2.2 13182.820 0.0 2.2 49.144 61.085

. 2 15012.8 4.0 3.8 13271.835 1.3 1.6 13236.235 1.6 1.9 39.122 54.710

. 3 15198.6 5.0 4.1 13352.846 2.5 1.6 13353.227 3.6 2.4 5.426 33.002

2007. 9262.896 . 2.3 1232.443 . 5.0 2130.607 . -1.9 1549.952 . 6.5

2008. 9211.714 . -0.6 1171.809 . -4.9 1978.597 . -7.1 1537.637 . -0.8

2009. 9037.474 . -1.9 1108.302 . -5.4 1606.345 . -18.8 1263.190 . -17.8

2010. 9220.896 . 2.0 1188.302 . 7.2 1648.351 . 2.6 1319.202 . 4.4

2008 1 9289.074 -1.0 0.9 1218.707 -9.6 0.7 2066.360 -8.3 -2.9 1589.083 -0.8 6.0

. 2 9285.780 -0.1 0.4 1209.775 -2.9 -1.4 2039.097 -5.2 -5.0 1579.991 -2.3 2.8

. 3 9195.964 -3.8 -1.0 1170.776 -12.3 -5.8 1973.542 -12.3 -7.7 1539.159 -9.9 -2.1

. 4 9076.039 -5.1 -2.5 1087.977 -25.4 -13.0 1835.389 -25.2 -13.1 1442.314 -22.9 -9.4

2009 1 9040.884 -1.5 -2.7 1094.568 2.4 -10.2 1665.464 -32.2 -19.4 1312.933 -31.3 -17.4

. 2 8998.541 -1.9 -3.1 1083.358 -4.0 -10.4 1589.836 -17.0 -22.0 1257.602 -15.8 -20.4

. 3 9050.293 2.3 -1.6 1134.512 20.3 -3.1 1592.615 0.7 -19.3 1247.031 -3.3 -19.0

. 4 9060.177 0.4 -0.2 1120.769 -4.8 3.0 1577.463 -3.8 -14.1 1235.195 -3.7 -14.4

2010 1 9121.193 2.7 0.9 1147.466 9.9 4.8 1582.007 1.2 -5.0 1253.323 6.0 -4.5

. 2 9186.916 2.9 2.1 1169.260 7.8 7.9 1654.040 19.5 4.0 1307.992 18.6 4.0

. 3 9247.087 2.6 2.2 1194.057 8.8 5.2 1663.488 2.3 4.5 1343.614 11.3 7.7

. 4 9328.389 3.6 3.0 1242.425 17.2 10.9 1693.869 7.5 7.4 1371.879 8.7 11.1

2011 1 9376.739 2.1 2.8 1277.358 11.7 11.3 1698.971 1.2 7.4 1378.885 2.1 10.0

. 2 9392.744 0.7 2.2 1260.171 -5.3 7.8 1736.677 9.2 5.0 1413.196 10.3 8.0

. 3 9449.517 2.4 2.2 1272.986 4.1 6.6 1793.233 13.7 7.8 1467.546 16.3 9.2

Nominal GDPPercent change

Billionsof $

Annualrate

Yearago

Real GDP Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

Final Sales Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

Change inPrivate Inventories Billions of 2005 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago

Consumption Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

Durables Consumption Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

Private Fixed Investment Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

NonresidentialFixed Investment

Percent change Billions

of 2005 $Annual

rateYearago



2007. 106.231 . 2.9 105.2 . 3.1 105.5 . 3.4 104.6 . 2.4

2008. 108.565 . 2.2 108.2 . 2.9 108.6 . 3.0 107.2 . 2.5

2009. 109.732 . 1.1 109.8 . 1.4 110.3 . 1.6 108.5 . 1.2

2010. 111.000 . 1.2 111.9 . 1.9 112.1 . 1.6 111.3 . 2.6

2008 1 107.623 2.5 2.1 107.2 2.7 3.2 107.6 3.4 3.2 106.4 1.9 3.2

. 2 108.282 2.5 2.0 108.0 3.0 3.1 108.4 3.0 3.1 106.9 1.9 2.6

. 3 109.107 3.1 2.5 108.6 2.2 2.8 109.0 2.2 2.9 107.5 2.3 2.4

. 4 109.247 0.5 2.1 109.1 1.9 2.4 109.5 1.8 2.6 107.9 1.5 1.9

2009 1 109.709 1.7 1.9 109.3 0.7 2.0 109.8 1.1 2.0 108.0 0.4 1.5

. 2 109.589 -0.4 1.2 109.5 0.7 1.4 110.1 1.1 1.6 108.3 1.1 1.3

. 3 109.662 0.3 0.5 109.9 1.5 1.2 110.5 1.5 1.4 108.6 1.1 1.0

. 4 109.969 1.1 0.7 110.4 1.8 1.2 110.9 1.5 1.3 109.0 1.5 1.0

2010 1 110.370 1.5 0.6 111.1 2.6 1.6 111.4 1.8 1.5 110.3 4.9 2.1

. 2 110.770 1.5 1.1 111.6 1.8 1.9 111.9 1.8 1.6 110.9 2.2 2.4

. 3 111.162 1.4 1.4 112.1 1.8 2.0 112.3 1.4 1.6 111.6 2.5 2.8

. 4 111.699 1.9 1.6 112.7 2.2 2.1 112.8 1.8 1.7 112.2 2.2 2.9

2011 1 112.390 2.5 1.8 113.3 2.1 2.0 113.2 1.4 1.6 113.5 4.7 2.9

. 2 113.091 2.5 2.1 114.2 3.2 2.3 113.8 2.1 1.7 115.3 6.5 4.0

. 3 113.797 2.5 2.4 114.6 1.4 2.2 114.2 1.4 1.7 115.4 0.3 3.4

2007. 1554.433 . 9.3 2203.245 . 2.4 102.448 . 1.5 107.918 . 4.0

2008. 1649.274 . 6.1 2144.034 . -2.7 103.112 . 0.6 111.613 . 3.4

2009. 1494.020 . -9.4 1852.823 . -13.6 105.502 . 2.3 113.448 . 1.6

2010. 1663.216 . 11.3 2084.990 . 12.5 109.846 . 4.1 115.784 . 2.1

2008 1 1643.924 5.5 9.8 2194.139 1.4 -0.3 103.012 -2.4 1.9 111.286 6.1 4.1

. 2 1693.878 12.7 11.3 2180.094 -2.5 -1.4 103.562 2.2 1.6 110.900 -1.4 3.4

. 3 1678.712 -3.5 6.4 2143.325 -6.6 -3.3 103.374 -0.7 0.3 111.861 3.5 3.6

. 4 1580.583 -21.4 -2.5 2058.579 -14.9 -5.9 102.491 -3.4 -1.1 112.450 2.1 2.5

2009 1 1451.105 -29.0 -11.7 1855.266 -34.0 -15.4 102.835 1.3 -0.2 111.676 -2.7 0.4

. 2 1449.366 -0.5 -14.4 1781.167 -15.0 -18.3 104.831 8.0 1.2 113.509 6.7 2.4

. 3 1497.266 13.9 -10.8 1849.651 16.3 -13.7 106.499 6.5 3.0 114.162 2.3 2.1

. 4 1578.344 23.5 -0.1 1925.207 17.4 -6.5 107.941 5.5 5.3 114.502 1.2 1.8

2010 1 1606.189 7.2 10.7 1982.954 12.5 6.9 109.174 4.6 6.2 114.914 1.4 2.9

. 2 1645.013 10.0 13.5 2082.438 21.6 16.9 109.492 1.2 4.4 115.642 2.6 1.9

. 3 1684.844 10.0 12.5 2143.545 12.3 15.9 110.051 2.1 3.3 116.181 1.9 1.8

. 4 1716.819 7.8 8.8 2131.023 -2.3 10.7 110.658 2.2 2.5 116.341 0.6 1.6

2011 1 1749.573 7.9 8.9 2173.924 8.3 9.6 110.492 -0.6 1.2 117.933 5.6 2.6

. 2 1764.961 3.6 7.3 2181.352 1.4 4.7 110.463 -0.1 0.9 118.718 2.7 2.7

. 3 1782.385 4.0 5.8 2191.768 1.9 2.2 111.313 3.1 1.1 118.900 0.6 2.3

GDP Chain Price Index Percent change

IndexAnnual

rateYearago

Employment Cost Index Percent change

IndexAnnual

rateYearago

ECI: Wages Percent change

IndexAnnual

rateYearago

ECI: Benefits Percent change

IndexAnnual

rateYearago

Exports Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

Imports Percent change

Billionsof 2005 $

Annualrate

Yearago

NonfarmOutput per Hour

Percent change

IndexAnnual

rateYearago

NonfarmCompensation per Hour

Percent change

IndexAnnual

rateYearago


11/04/11

26Research Division


2006 . 144418 2708 . 1.9 136092 2397 . 1.8 105.8 . . 2.9

2007 . 146049 1631 . 1.1 137587 1496 . 1.1 107.3 . . 1.4

2008 . 145369 -680 . -0.5 136778 -809 . -0.6 105.9 . . -1.2

2009 . 139886 -5483 . -3.8 130789 -5989 . -4.4 98.7 . . -6.8

2010 . 139069 -818 . -0.6 129822 -967 . -0.7 98.8 . . 0.1

2009 1 141570 -2487 -6.7 -3.2 132814 -2249 -6.5 -3.7 100.8 -2.6 -10.0 -6.1

. 2 140330 -1240 -3.5 -3.8 130956 -1857 -5.5 -4.7 98.6 -2.2 -8.7 -7.8

. 3 139331 -999 -2.8 -4.1 129960 -996 -3.0 -4.9 97.8 -0.8 -3.1 -7.6

. 4 138314 -1017 -2.9 -4.0 129425 -535 -1.6 -4.2 97.5 -0.3 -1.2 -5.8

2010 1 138720 406 1.2 -2.0 129322 -103 -0.3 -2.6 97.9 0.4 1.5 -2.9

. 2 139276 555 1.6 -0.8 129956 635 2.0 -0.8 98.6 0.8 3.2 0.1

. 3 139212 -64 -0.2 -0.1 129883 -73 -0.2 -0.1 99.1 0.5 1.9 1.3

. 4 139066 -146 -0.4 0.5 130128 245 0.8 0.5 99.5 0.4 1.6 2.1

2011 1 139587 520 1.5 0.6 130549 422 1.3 0.9 100.0 0.5 2.2 2.2

. 2 139596 9 0.0 0.2 131016 467 1.4 0.8 100.8 0.7 3.0 2.2

. 3 139649 54 0.2 0.3 131296 280 0.9 1.1 101.0 0.3 1.1 2.0

2009 Oct 138393 -398 -3.4 -4.4 129505 -221 -2.0 -4.6 97.2 -0.2 -2.4 -7.1

. Nov 138590 197 1.7 -3.8 129450 -55 -0.5 -4.1 97.7 0.5 6.4 -5.6

. Dec 137960 -630 -5.3 -3.7 129320 -130 -1.2 -3.8 97.6 -0.1 -1.2 -4.8

2010 Jan 138511 551 4.9 -2.6 129281 -39 -0.4 -3.2 97.9 0.3 3.8 -3.7

. Feb 138698 187 1.6 -2.1 129246 -35 -0.3 -2.7 97.6 -0.3 -3.6 -3.5

. Mar 138952 254 2.2 -1.3 129438 192 1.8 -2.0 98.1 0.5 6.3 -1.6

. Apr 139382 430 3.8 -1.0 129715 277 2.6 -1.3 98.6 0.5 6.3 -0.4

. May 139353 -29 -0.2 -0.7 130173 458 4.3 -0.6 98.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1

. Jun 139092 -261 -2.2 -0.6 129981 -192 -1.8 -0.4 98.7 0.1 1.2 0.7

. Jul 138991 -101 -0.9 -0.6 129932 -49 -0.5 -0.2 99.0 0.3 3.7 0.9

. Aug 139267 276 2.4 -0.1 129873 -59 -0.5 -0.1 99.1 0.1 1.2 1.2

. Sep 139378 111 1.0 0.4 129844 -29 -0.3 0.1 99.2 0.1 1.2 1.8

. Oct 139084 -294 -2.5 0.5 130015 171 1.6 0.4 99.4 0.2 2.4 2.3

. Nov 138909 -175 -1.5 0.2 130108 93 0.9 0.5 99.5 0.1 1.2 1.8

. Dec 139206 297 2.6 0.9 130260 152 1.4 0.7 99.6 0.1 1.2 2.0

2011 Jan 139323 117 1.0 0.6 130328 68 0.6 0.8 99.4 -0.2 -2.4 1.5

. Feb 139573 250 2.2 0.6 130563 235 2.2 1.0 100.2 0.8 10.1 2.7

. Mar 139864 291 2.5 0.7 130757 194 1.8 1.0 100.5 0.3 3.7 2.4

. Apr 139674 -190 -1.6 0.2 130974 217 2.0 1.0 100.7 0.2 2.4 2.1

. May 139779 105 0.9 0.3 131027 53 0.5 0.7 100.8 0.1 1.2 2.2

. Jun 139334 -445 -3.8 0.2 131047 20 0.2 0.8 100.8 0.0 0.0 2.1

. Jul 139296 -38 -0.3 0.2 131174 127 1.2 1.0 101.0 0.2 2.4 2.0

. Aug 139627 331 2.9 0.3 131278 104 1.0 1.1 100.8 -0.2 -2.4 1.7

. Sep 140025 398 3.5 0.5 131436 158 1.5 1.2 101.3 0.5 6.1 2.1

. Oct 140302 277 2.4 0.9 131516 80 0.7 1.2 101.7 0.4 4.8 2.3

Household Survey Employment Percent change

Thousands ChangeAnnual

rateYearago

Nonfarm Payroll Employment Percent change

Thousands ChangeAnnual

rateYearago

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change

IndexMonthly

rateAnnual

rateYearago



2006 . 4.6 4310.458 . . 5.4 97.4062 . . 2.2 4.73 4.79

2007 . 4.6 4454.439 . . 3.3 100.0000 . . 2.7 4.35 4.63

2008 . 5.8 4401.327 . . -1.2 96.2907 . . -3.7 1.37 3.67

2009 . 9.3 4093.193 . . -7.0 85.5452 . . -11.2 0.15 3.26

2010 . 9.6 4353.585 . . 6.4 90.0658 . . 5.3 0.14 3.21

2009 1 8.2 1009.353 -2.0 -7.8 -10.1 86.6582 -5.1 -18.9 -13.5 0.21 2.74

. 2 9.3 1010.378 0.1 0.4 -10.6 84.0560 -3.0 -11.5 -14.6 0.17 3.31

. 3 9.7 1031.826 2.1 8.8 -7.7 85.1501 1.3 5.3 -10.6 0.16 3.52

. 4 10.0 1041.636 1.0 3.9 1.1 86.3166 1.4 5.6 -5.5 0.06 3.46

2010 1 9.7 1063.065 2.1 8.5 5.3 88.0179 2.0 8.1 1.6 0.11 3.72

. 2 9.6 1079.719 1.6 6.4 6.9 89.5349 1.7 7.1 6.5 0.15 3.49

. 3 9.6 1089.529 0.9 3.7 5.6 91.0081 1.6 6.7 6.9 0.16 2.79

. 4 9.6 1121.272 2.9 12.2 7.6 91.7023 0.8 3.1 6.2 0.14 2.86

2011 1 8.9 1150.261 2.6 10.7 8.2 92.7783 1.2 4.8 5.4 0.13 3.46

. 2 9.1 1163.511 1.2 4.7 7.8 92.9133 0.1 0.6 3.8 0.05 3.21

. 3 9.1 1176.541 1.1 4.6 8.0 94.1030 1.3 5.2 3.4 0.02 2.43

2009 Oct 10.1 343.807 0.7 8.2 -2.8 86.0163 0.3 3.1 -7.4 0.07 3.39

. Nov 9.9 348.049 1.2 15.9 1.6 86.2137 0.2 2.8 -6.0 0.05 3.40

. Dec 9.9 349.780 0.5 6.1 4.8 86.7197 0.6 7.3 -2.9 0.05 3.59

2010 Jan 9.7 351.079 0.4 4.5 3.6 87.7492 1.2 15.2 0.3 0.06 3.73

. Feb 9.7 352.109 0.3 3.6 4.2 87.9129 0.2 2.3 1.1 0.11 3.69

. Mar 9.7 359.877 2.2 29.9 8.2 88.3915 0.5 6.7 3.3 0.15 3.73

. Apr 9.8 361.735 0.5 6.4 8.5 88.7051 0.4 4.3 4.6 0.16 3.85

. May 9.6 359.262 -0.7 -7.9 6.9 89.9025 1.3 17.5 7.2 0.16 3.42

. Jun 9.5 358.722 -0.2 -1.8 5.3 89.9970 0.1 1.3 7.7 0.12 3.20

. Jul 9.5 359.446 0.2 2.4 5.4 90.7919 0.9 11.1 7.5 0.16 3.01

. Aug 9.6 363.666 1.2 15.0 4.1 90.9898 0.2 2.6 6.8 0.16 2.70

. Sep 9.6 366.417 0.8 9.5 7.3 91.2427 0.3 3.4 6.3 0.15 2.65

. Oct 9.7 370.790 1.2 15.3 7.8 91.1385 -0.1 -1.4 6.0 0.13 2.54

. Nov 9.8 374.159 0.9 11.5 7.5 91.4039 0.3 3.6 6.0 0.14 2.76

. Dec 9.4 376.323 0.6 7.2 7.6 92.5646 1.3 16.3 6.7 0.14 3.29

2011 Jan 9.0 379.257 0.8 9.8 8.0 92.7949 0.2 3.0 5.8 0.15 3.39

. Feb 8.9 384.044 1.3 16.2 9.1 92.4512 -0.4 -4.4 5.2 0.13 3.58

. Mar 8.8 386.960 0.8 9.5 7.5 93.0888 0.7 8.6 5.3 0.10 3.41

. Apr 9.0 387.705 0.2 2.3 7.2 92.7082 -0.4 -4.8 4.5 0.06 3.46

. May 9.1 387.522 -0.0 -0.6 7.9 92.9949 0.3 3.8 3.4 0.04 3.17

. Jun 9.2 388.284 0.2 2.4 8.2 93.0368 0.0 0.5 3.4 0.04 3.00

. Jul 9.1 389.934 0.4 5.2 8.5 94.1080 1.2 14.7 3.7 0.04 3.00

. Aug 9.1 391.074 0.3 3.6 7.5 94.1285 0.0 0.3 3.4 0.02 2.30

. Sep 9.1 395.533 1.1 14.6 7.9 94.0725 -0.1 -0.7 3.1 0.01 1.98

. Oct 9.0 397.666 0.5 6.7 7.2 94.7136 0.7 8.5 3.9 0.02 2.15

Unempl.Rate

Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change

Billionsof dollars

Monthly/quarterly

Annualrate

Yearago

Industrial Production Percent change

IndexMonthly/quarterly

Annualrate

Yearago

TreasuryYields(Percent)

3-mo 10-yr


11/16/11

28Research Division


2006 . 201.558 . . 3.2 . 205.917 . . 2.5 . 160.4 . . 2.9

2007 . 207.337 . . 2.9 . 210.728 . . 2.3 . 166.6 . . 3.9

2008 . 215.251 . . 3.8 . 215.567 . . 2.3 . 177.2 . . 6.4

2009 . 214.548 . . -0.3 . 219.237 . . 1.7 . 172.7 . . -2.5

2010 . 218.079 . . 1.6 . 221.337 . . 1.0 . 179.9 . . 4.2

2009 1 212.451 -0.6 -2.4 -0.2 -2.4 217.710 0.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 170.3 -1.6 -6.4 -2.1

. 2 213.468 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.3 218.916 0.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 171.6 0.8 3.2 -4.1

. 3 215.419 0.9 3.7 -1.6 1.0 219.691 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 173.1 0.9 3.5 -5.2

. 4 216.853 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.5 220.629 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 175.7 1.5 6.1 1.5

2010 1 217.544 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.3 220.603 -0.0 -0.0 1.3 -0.0 178.9 1.8 7.4 5.1

. 2 217.270 -0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.4 221.053 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 179.0 0.1 0.3 4.3

. 3 218.039 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 221.671 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 179.5 0.3 1.1 3.7

. 4 219.465 0.7 2.6 1.2 1.2 222.021 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 182.3 1.6 6.5 3.8

2011 1 222.274 1.3 5.2 2.2 5.2 222.982 0.4 1.7 1.1 1.7 187.7 3.0 12.4 5.0

. 2 224.514 1.0 4.1 3.3 4.7 224.363 0.6 2.5 1.5 2.1 191.0 1.7 7.1 6.7

. 3 226.216 0.8 3.1 3.8 4.1 225.871 0.7 2.7 1.9 2.3 191.9 0.5 2.0 6.9

2009 Oct 216.445 0.2 2.8 -0.2 2.9 220.489 0.2 2.6 1.7 2.0 173.9 0.2 2.8 -2.0

. Nov 216.956 0.2 2.9 1.9 2.9 220.616 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 176.3 1.4 17.9 2.3

. Dec 217.158 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.8 220.783 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.8 176.9 0.3 4.2 4.4

2010 Jan 217.458 0.1 1.7 2.6 1.7 220.494 -0.1 -1.6 1.5 -1.6 178.9 1.1 14.4 4.7

. Feb 217.562 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.1 220.619 0.1 0.7 1.3 -0.4 178.2 -0.4 -4.6 4.4

. Mar 217.611 0.0 0.3 2.4 0.8 220.695 0.0 0.4 1.2 -0.2 179.5 0.7 9.1 6.0

. Apr 217.625 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.6 220.786 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 179.4 -0.1 -0.7 5.3

. May 217.320 -0.1 -1.7 2.0 0.2 221.041 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.3 179.1 -0.2 -2.0 5.0

. Jun 216.865 -0.2 -2.5 1.1 -0.3 221.331 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.5 178.5 -0.3 -3.9 2.6

. Jul 217.621 0.3 4.3 1.3 0.4 221.557 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 178.6 0.1 0.7 4.0

. Aug 218.068 0.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 221.691 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 179.7 0.6 7.6 3.2

. Sep 218.427 0.2 2.0 1.1 0.8 221.765 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 180.2 0.3 3.4 3.9

. Oct 218.970 0.2 3.0 1.2 1.0 221.795 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 181.2 0.6 6.9 4.2

. Nov 219.240 0.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 222.059 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.6 182.1 0.5 6.1 3.3

. Dec 220.186 0.4 5.3 1.4 1.4 222.210 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 183.7 0.9 11.1 3.8

2011 Jan 221.062 0.4 4.9 1.7 4.9 222.587 0.2 2.1 0.9 2.1 185.5 1.0 12.4 3.7

. Feb 222.270 0.5 6.8 2.2 5.8 223.029 0.2 2.4 1.1 2.2 188.2 1.5 18.9 5.6

. Mar 223.490 0.5 6.8 2.7 6.1 223.331 0.1 1.6 1.2 2.0 189.5 0.7 8.6 5.6

. Apr 224.433 0.4 5.2 3.1 5.9 223.745 0.2 2.2 1.3 2.1 191.0 0.8 9.9 6.5

. May 224.804 0.2 2.0 3.4 5.1 224.387 0.3 3.5 1.5 2.4 191.2 0.1 1.3 6.8

. Jun 224.304 -0.2 -2.6 3.4 3.8 224.958 0.3 3.1 1.6 2.5 190.7 -0.3 -3.1 6.8

. Jul 225.425 0.5 6.2 3.6 4.1 225.463 0.2 2.7 1.8 2.5 191.4 0.4 4.5 7.2

. Aug 226.268 0.4 4.6 3.8 4.2 226.014 0.2 3.0 2.0 2.6 191.4 0.0 0.0 6.5

. Sep 226.955 0.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 226.137 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.4 192.9 0.8 9.8 7.0

. Oct 226.763 -0.1 -1.0 3.6 3.6 226.444 0.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 192.3 -0.3 -3.7 6.1

Consumer Price Index Percent change


Annualrate

Yearago

Yearto date

Consumer Price Indexless Food and Energy

Percent change


Annualrate

Yearago

Yearto date

Producer Price IndexFinished Goods Percent change


Annualrate

Yearago

investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budgetoutlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. terri-tories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays andReceipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal FiscalYear starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federaldebt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includesholdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the socialsecurity and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and localgovernments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.

Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) isthe difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services.It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but dif-fers slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equalsincome received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus incomepaid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance isnearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national productand gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The CurrentAccount Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment incomeplus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.

Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), andCompensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey thefollowing relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percentchanges. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Houruses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accountedfor about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corpora-tions accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA)remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corpo-rate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspondto current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital ConsumptionAdjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the differ-ence between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowedby the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental incomeof persons and net interest.

Pages 22, 23: The economic projections of the Federal Open MarketCommittee (FOMC) are published four times a year. Except for the unemploy-ment rate, the projections for the current and following years are on a Q4/Q4horizon. The shaded area represents the range of the economic projections ofthe FOMC members, and the dot signifies the mid-point of the ranges. Theprojections of the changes in the total PCE price index and the core PCE priceindex (excluding food and energy prices) are presumed to converge over time.

SourcesBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce

National income and product accounts, international trade and investmentdata (except by country), auto and light truck sales.

Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of CommerceInventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts,exports and imports by country.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of LaborAll employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer andproducer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensationper hour, multifactor productivity.

United States Department of TreasuryUnified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt.

Federal Reserve BoardIndex of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacityutilization, household debt.

The Survey Research Center, The University of MichiganConsumer sentiment index.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED).

NotesPages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change inprivate inventories. Advance, Second, and Third GDP Growth Rates arereleased during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter.Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDPis measured in 2005 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Indexis a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplierdeliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average WeeklyHours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. TheInventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data.

Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a componentto the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey ofCurrent Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports.

Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; three-month yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curvesare adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index withReinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends.

Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spotand futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthlyaverages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last tradingday of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. TheConsumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personalconsumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index(ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixedsample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in thenonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation iswages and salaries plus benefits.

Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, theestablishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have beenconverted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For moreinformation see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment iscounted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current EmploymentStatistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private house-holds, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The HouseholdSurvey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households providesestimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participationrate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional,16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemploymentrate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment(± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the householdsurvey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictlycomparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions tothe Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rateis the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as apercent of total employment plus job openings.

Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in asummary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their currentand expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions,and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representa-tive sample of U.S. households.

Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributedcorporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and privatewage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net govern-ment saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance onCurrent Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of theworld plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows).

Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expendi-tures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) andgross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal BudgetSurplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludestransactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government

National Economic Trends

Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 29

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