national economic indicators ray owens may 20, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
National Economic Indicators
Ray OwensMay 20, 2014
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2
Q10.1%
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
3
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
2014Change from previous quarter at compound annual rate, % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Gross Domestic Product 1.1 2.5 4.1 2.6 0.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.3 1.8 2.0 3.3 3.0
Nonresidential Fixed Investment -4.6 4.7 4.8 5.7 -2.1Structures -25.7 17.6 13.4 -1.8 0.2Equipment 1.6 3.3 0.2 10.9 -5.5Intellectual Property Products 3.7 -1.5 5.8 4.0 1.5
Residential Fixed Investment 12.5 14.2 10.3 -7.9 -5.7
Exports of Goods & Services -1.3 8.0 3.9 9.5 -7.6Imports of Goods & Services 0.6 6.9 2.4 1.5 -1.4
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 0.5 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.5
Billions of chained (2009) dollars
Change in Private Inventories 42.2 56.6 115.7 111.7 87.4
Net Exports of Goods & Services -422.3 -424.4 -419.8 -382.8 -414.4
2013
-0.5Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
-4.2 -0.4 0.4 -5.2
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4
Personal Saving Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
Percent of disposable personal income
March3.8%
5
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millions of Persons
April138.3 mil.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
Apr.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Apr. 288Mar. 203Feb. 222Jan. 144Dec. 84
Monthly Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
7
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent
April6.3%
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 19, 2014 meeting.
FOMC Forecast
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
8
Percent of Population
April
Employed
Labor Force
Civilian Labor Force Ratios
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year over Year % Change
Q11.4%
Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Post-War Average
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
Q1 14 -1.7%Q4 13 2.3%Q3 13 3.5%Q2 13 1.8%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
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-2
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5
6
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6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10
Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
12 Month % Change
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure
Real Disposable Personal Income
March
January February MarchIncome 0.3 0.3 0.3Expenditures 0.1 0.4 0.7
Month over Month % Change
*Adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012.
11
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
March4.0 mil.
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics
Millions of Homes
Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999
12
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
March0.38 mil.
Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999
New Single-Family Home Sales
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
Millions of Homes
13
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Q1-2.1%
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
14
-70
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-70
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Current $, Billions
March-$40.4 bil.
Six-Month Moving Average
Balance of International Trade
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
15
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
March1.1%
FOMC Forecast
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index12 Month % Change
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 19, 2014 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
2% Longer-run Target
16
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
May 2nd
5-Year
5-Year5 Years Ahead
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics
Percent
17
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Federal Funds Target Rate
May 9thPrimary Credit Rate
Monetary Policy Instruments
Percent
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Federal Funds Rate Target Range
Interest Rate Paid on Reserves
1652
2352
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
4000
4250
4500
9/12/2012 5/7/2014
18
Federal Reserve System Assets
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
$, Billions
Treasury Securities:$2,352
AgencyDebt: $45
Agency MBS: $1,632
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Total: $4,342
Miscellaneous: $314
Treasury Securities:$1,652
AgencyDebt: $87
Agency MBS: $844
Total: $2,865
Miscellaneous: $282
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
3.25
3.5
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
3.25
3.5
6 M 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs
June 20, 2013
May 9, 2014
19
Time to Maturity
Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
20
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
May 9th
10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate
Corporate BBB Bond Rate
30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Corporate AAA Bond Rate
Capital Market Rates
Percent
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics