national economic indicators, january 3, 2017
TRANSCRIPT
National Economic Indicators
March 12, 2018
Table of ContentsGDP Release Date Latest Period Page
Table : Real Gross Domestic Product Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 4Real Gross Domestic Product Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 5Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 6
HouseholdsRetail Sales Feb-14-2018 08:30 Jan-2018 7Consumer Spending and Income Mar-01-2018 08:31 Jan-2018 8Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks Mar-01-2018 15:36 Feb-2018 9Personal Saving Rate Mar-01-2018 08:31 Jan-2018 10Household Net Worth Mar-08-2018 12:23 Q4-2017 11Existing Single-Family Home Sales Feb-21-2018 10:00 Jan-2018 12New Single-Family Home Sales Feb-26-2018 10:00 Jan-2018 13Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Feb-16-2018 08:30 Jan-2018 14Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Feb-16-2018 08:30 Jan-2018 15
Business InvestmentReal Investment in Nonresidential Structures Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 16Real Private Construction Put in Place Mar-01-2018 10:00 Jan-2018 17Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 18Real Investment in Equipment Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 19Real Investment in Intellectual Property Feb-28-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 20
TradeBalance of International Trade Mar-07-2018 08:31 Jan-2018 21Exchange Value of the USD Feb-27-2018 09:06 Feb-2018 22
Manufacturing Industrial Production Feb-15-2018 09:16 Jan-2018 23Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing Feb-15-2018 09:16 Jan-2018 24Indexes of Manufacturing Activity Mar-01-2018 10:04 Feb-2018 25Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity Mar-05-2018 10:10 Feb-2018 26Table : ISM Business Survey Indexes Mar-01-2018 10:04 Feb-2018 27Manufacturers' New Orders Mar-06-2018 10:01 Jan-2018 28Core Capital Goods Mar-06-2018 10:01 Jan-2018 29Business Inventory/Sales Ratios Mar-09-2018 10:01 Jan-2018 30
Table of Contents (continued)Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Mar-09-2018 08:31 Feb-2018 31, 32Unemployment Rate Measures Mar-09-2018 08:31 Feb-2018 33,34Non-Employment Index Feb-27-2018 16:56 Jan-2018 35Labor Market Flows Feb-06-2018 10:00 Dec-2017 36Labor Force Participation Mar-09-2018 08:31 Feb-2018 37Aggregate Weekly Hours Index Mar-09-2018 08:31 Feb-2018 38Average Hourly Earnings Mar-09-2018 08:31 Feb-2018 39Employment Cost Index Jan-31-2018 08:30 Q4-2017 40Business Labor Productivity Mar-07-2018 08:31 Q4-2017 41Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business Mar-07-2018 08:31 Q4-2017 42
InflationTable : Gauges of Inflation Mar-02-2018 14:40 Feb-2018 43Expenditure Price Indexes Mar-01-2018 08:31 Jan-2018 44, 45Consumer Price Indexes Feb-14-2018 08:31 Jan-2018 46Producer Price Indexes Feb-15-2018 08:35 Jan-2018 47Commodity Price Indexes Mar-02-2018 14:40 Feb-2018 48Crude Oil Prices Mar-12-2018 12-Mar-2018 49TIPS Inflation Compensation Mar-06-2018 15:57 02-Mar-2018 50
Monetary Policy & Financial MarketsFederal Reserve System Assets Mar-08-2018 16:31 07-Mar-2018 51Monetary Policy Instruments Mar-11-2018 11:23 09-Mar-2018 52Real Federal Funds Rate Mar-01-2018 08:31 Feb-2018 53FOMC Statement 54, 55Eurodollar Futures Mar-12-2018 12-Mar-2018 56SEP: Federal Funds Rate 57Monetary Base Mar-08-2018 16:32 28-Feb-2018 58M2 Mar-08-2018 16:32 Jan-2018 59Money Market Rates Mar-11-2018 11:23 09-Mar-2018 60Capital Market Rates Mar-11-2018 11:23 09-Mar-2018 61Treasury Yield Curve Mar-09-2018 16:34 09-Mar-2018 62Risk Premium Mar-11-2018 11:23 09-Mar-2018 63
4
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
2017Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 1.8 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.9 1.9 3.3 2.2 3.8
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 0.2 7.2 6.7 4.7 6.6Structures -2.2 14.8 7.0 -7.0 2.5Equipment 1.8 4.4 8.8 10.8 11.8Intellectual Property -0.4 5.7 3.7 5.2 2.4
Residential Fixed Investment 7.1 11.1 -7.3 -4.7 13.0
Exports of Goods & Services -3.8 7.3 3.5 2.1 7.1Imports of Goods & Services 8.1 4.3 1.5 -0.7 14.0
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.3 2.4 2.7 1.9 4.3
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 63.1 1.2 5.5 38.5 8.0
Net Exports of Goods & Services -631.1 -622.2 -613.6 -597.5 -652.2
2016
2.9Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.7
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the December 2017 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 5
Q42.5%
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board
FOMC Projection
6
Decomposition of Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Employment
Productivity
GDP
10-Year Annual Growth Rates
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
12 Month % Change
3 Month Annualized % Change
January3.6%
7
Retail Sales
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
Note: Retail sales includes food services.
Nov. Dec. Jan.Total 0.8 0.0 -0.3x Gasoline 0.5 0.0 -0.4
Month over Month % Change
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
12 Month % Change
Real Disposable Personal Income
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure
January
8
Consumer Spending and Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
November December JanuaryIncome 0.1 0.2 0.6
Expenditures 0.5 0.2 -0.1
Month over Month % Change
Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 2008 and 2012-2013.
9
Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks
Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Millions of Vehicles
Autos and Light TrucksFebruary17.07 mil.
Light Trucks
Autos
10
Personal Saving Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent of disposable personal income
January3.2%
Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary events
11
Household Net Worth
Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics
450
500
550
600
650
700
450
500
550
600
650
700
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent of disposable personal income
Q4
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
12
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics
January
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Millions
1990-99 Average
13
New Single-Family Home Sales
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
January
14
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts
Permits
Starts January
Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate
15
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts
Starts
Permits
January
3-Month Moving Average, Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
16
Q4 2.5%
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
17
Real Private Construction Put In Place
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index.
220
270
320
370
420
470
520
570
620
670
220
270
320
370
420
470
520
570
620
670
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real Private Residential Construction
Real Private Nonresidential Construction December
2009$, Billions
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
18
Q46.6%
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
19
Q411.8%
Real Investment in Equipment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
20
Q42.5%
Real Investment in Intellectual Property
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
21
Balance of International Trade
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
Note: Customs Value of Trade Balance
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Current $, Billions
PetroleumBalance
Trade Balance
Non- PetroleumBalance
January -57 Bil
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
22
Exchange Value of the USDIndex, March 1973 = 100
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.
January
23
Industrial Production
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mining
Overall
Manufacturing
January
2012 = 100
24
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent
January76.2%
25
Indexes of Manufacturing Activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Diffusion Index, percent
ISM (Left Axis)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey: Current
Conditions Composite Index (Right Axis)
February60.8
26
Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Diffusion Index, percent
ISM (Left Axis)
Richmond Fed Service Sector
Index: Revenues (Right Axis)
Feb 59.5
Jan. Feb. Jan. Feb.
Purchasing Managers Index 59.1 60.8 Non-Manufacturing Index 59.9 59.5
Production 64.5 62.0 Business Activity 59.8 62.8
New Orders 65.4 64.2 New Orders 62.7 64.8
Employment 54.2 59.7 Employment 61.6 55.0
Supplier Deliveries 59.1 61.1 Supplier Deliveries 55.5 55.5
Inventories 52.3 56.7 Inventories 49.0 53.5
Prices 72.7 74.2 Prices 61.9 61.0
Backlog of Orders 56.2 59.8 Backlog of Orders 50.5 56.0
New Export Orders 59.8 62.8 New Export Orders 58.0 59.5
Imports 58.4 60.5 Imports 54.0 50.0
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
27DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity.
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Jan
28
Manufacturers’ New Orders
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
New Orders
Shipments
Jan
29
Core Capital Goods
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
30
Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent
Total Business
Retailers
Manufacturers
Jan
31
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Millions of Persons
February148.17 mil.
32
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
Q1
Feb 313Jan 239Dec 175Nov 216Oct 271
Monthly Change
Notes: White bar on the right is based on an incomplete quarter
33
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the December 2017 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Percent
Feb 4.1%
FOMC Projection
34
Measures of Labor Utilization
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
3
6
9
12
15
18
3
6
9
12
15
18
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent
U3: Official Unemployment Rate
U6: U5 + Involuntary Part-Time
U5: U3 + Discouraged + Marginally Attached
Feb
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Non-Employment Index Including People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons
Non-Employment Index
Percent
January
35
Non-Employment Index
Based on “Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market,” Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, First Quarter 2014.
36
Labor Market Flows
Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics
Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent
Hires Rate*
Job Openings Rate**
Quits Rate*
December
37
Labor Force Participation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Feb
Percent of Population
38
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Feb
Index, 2007=100
39
Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Feb 2.7%
12 Month % Change of 3-Month Moving Average
Feb 0.1%Jan 0.3%Dec 0.4%Nov 0.3%Oct -0.2%
Monthly % Change
Employment Cost Index
40Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year over Year % Change
Benefits Cost
Wages and Salaries
Total Compensation
Q4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year over Year % Change
Post-War Average(Labor Productivity)
41
Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
Q4 17 0.0%Q3 17 2.6%Q2 17 1.7%Q1 17 0.2%
Q41.1%
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year over Year % Change
Alternate Series
Q4 1.7%
42
Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business
Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
Q4 17 2.5%Q3 17 1.0%Q2 17 -1.2%Q1 17 4.8%
Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Dec. Jan. YoY %Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.8 4.5 1.7
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 2.0 3.3 1.5
Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Dec. Jan. YoY %All Items 2.4 6.7 2.1
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 2.9 4.3 1.8
Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Dec. Jan. YoY %Finished Goods -0.6 8.7 3.2
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 0.6 1.2 2.0Core Intermediate Goods 5.0 3.7 3.8
Crude Goods 24.7 11.5 2.6
Spot Commodity Price Index Jan. Feb. YoY %
CRB Spot Commodity Price Index 2.5 0.0 2.5
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
43
Gauges of Inflation
Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
44
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the December 2017 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
12 Month % Change
2% Longer-run TargetFOMC Projection
January1.7%
45
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the December 2017 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index excludes expenditures on gasoline and food services.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
12 Month % Change
12 month percentage change
FOMC ProjectionJanuary
1.5%
6 month percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Core CPI
All Items
12 Month % Change
January
46
Consumer Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
December JanuaryCPI: All Items 0.2% 0.5%Core CPI 0.2% 0.3%
47
Producer Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Finished Goods
Core Finished Goods
January
12 Month % Change
All Finished Goods 3.2%Core Finished Goods 2.0%
January (percent)
48
Commodity Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
-21
-15
-9
-3
3
9
15
21
27
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity
Price Index(Right Axis)
PPI Core Intermediate
Processed Materials(Left Axis)
12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change
February
Price Indexes January FebruaryPPI Core Intermed. Goods 3.8% ---CRBS Spot Commodities 2.3% 2.5%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Futures Price
Current US$/Barrel
Spot Price
12-Mar-18
49
Crude Oil Prices
Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg
Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
5-Year5 Years Ahead
5-Year
Percent
March 2
50
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
51
Federal Reserve System Assets
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Treasury Securities:$1,652
Treasury Securities:$2,424
Agency MBS: $844
Agency MBS: $1,760
Agency Debt:$87
Agency Debt:$4
Miscellaneous: $282
Miscellaneous: $254
Total: $2,865
Total: $4,442
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
9/12/2012 3/7/2018
$, Billions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Federal Funds Target Rate
Primary Credit Rate
Federal Funds Rate Target Range
Interest Rate Paid on Reserves
Percent
March 9
52
Monetary Policy Instruments
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent
February
53
Real Federal Funds Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Note: The Real Federal Funds Rate is the difference between the effect Fed Funds rate and the lagged year-over-yearchange in the core PCE price index.
54
FOMC Statement
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued tostrengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
Source: Board of Governors
January 31, 2018
55
Continued…
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal.
The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams
Source: Board of Governors January 31, 2018
January 31, 2018
March 12, 2018
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Percent
56
Eurodollar Futures
Source: CME Group via Bloomberg
57
Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate
Source: Board of Governors
Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year. Projections made for the December 2017 meeting.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Percent
2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current $, Billions
February 28
58
Monetary Base
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
12 Month % Change
January
59
M2
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IOER
Federal Funds Rate
Primary Credit Rate
3-Month LIBOR
3-Month T-Bill
Fed Reverse Repo Rateon Treasuries
Percent
March 9
60
Money Market Rates
Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Corporate BBBBond Rate
Corporate AAABond Rate
30-YearConventional
Mortgage Rate
10-Year TreasuryBond Rate
Percent
March 9
61
Capital Market Rates
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
62
Treasury Yield Curve
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
6 M 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs
January 29, 2018 March 09, 2018
Percent
Time to Maturity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
10 Year Rolling Average Risk Premium
Percent
March 9
63
Risk Premium
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and 10-year Treasury.