national association of home builders

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS

2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000

Up 24% from 2011

This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22%

Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%

CORE LOGIC

IN 2012:

• Total Homes Sales Increased 6%

• Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11%

• REO Sales Declined 20%

(3rd consecutive decline)

• Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4% 6.9%

• Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)

GLAR MLS 2012• Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive

Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011)

Houses Sold on MLS

‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12 vs.’11

15,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442 10,974 12,724 +15.9%

Median Sales Price

‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12 vs.’11

138.5 139.0 134.9 132.0 138.0 134.1 140.0 +4.3%

• Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in ’12 vs. ‘11

PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSA

NationalMSA Rank 1-yr Qtr. 5-yrBirmingham, AL 222 -1.3% -0.2 -8.8%Charlotte, NC 201 -0.8% 0.4 -12.9%Cincinnati, OH 213 -1.0% -0.5 -8.3%Cleveland, OH 265 -2.2% - -13.3%Columbus, OH 186 -0.3% -0.3 -6.9%Dayton, OH 212 -1.0% 0.1 -9.9%Houston, TX 30 3.4% 0.9 5.5%Indianapolis, IN 149 0.3% 0.2 -3.9%Knoxville, TN 156 0.1% 0.6 -5.5%Memphis, TN 206 -1.0% -0.1 -12.1%

Louisville, KY 133 0.6% 0.4 -2.8%

Oklahoma City 64 2.0% 0.7 2.2%Portland, OR 66 2.0% 1.8 -21.0%Raleigh, NC 181 -0.2% - -6.6%Richmond, VA 230 -1.5% - -18.1%Seattle, WA 63 2.0% 1.4 -23.1%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

TOP 20 MSA LARGEST5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES

Las Vegas, NV -54.3%Vallejo, CA -45.6%Stockton, CA -44.9%Daytona Beach, FL -44.3%Reno, NV -44.0%Orlando, FL -42.8%Ocala, FL -42.7%Salvias, CA -41.7%Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -41.6%Riverside – San Bernadine, CA -41.3%Port St. Lucie, FL -40.9%Yuba City, CA -40.7%Naples – Marco Island, FL -40.1%Visalia, CA -39.8%Ft. Lauderdale, FL -39.0%Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL -38.8%Fresno, CA -38.5%Phoenix, AZ -38.4%Bradenton – Sarasota, FL -38.0%West Palm Beach, FL -37.8%Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL -37.8%

Louisville, KY -2.8%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Residential Building Permits 2012

2012 2011 ’12 vs ’11Jefferson 1003 671 +49.4Oldham 156 112 39.3Shelby 136 73 86.3Spencer 47 46 2.2Bullitt 292 213 37.137.1

1634 1115 +46.5%

Clark 349 227 +53.7Floyd 169 98 72.4Harrison 96 64 50.0

614 389 +57.8%

8-County Total 2,248 1504 +49.5%

Note: Nelson 114 122 -6.6% Hardin 254 210 +21%

Source: The Market Edge

Residential Building Permit 2012Market Comparison

%CHANGE MARKET 2012 vs. 2011

Louisville KY 42.5%

Lexington KY 33.1%Evansville IN 24.3%

Asheville NC 21.5%Charlotte NC 30.4%Fayetteville NC -------Hickory NC 12.3%Triad NC 3.2%Raleigh NC 31.8%Upstate NC 32.1%Chattanooga TN 27.7%Knoxville TN 23.9%Tri-Cities TN -4.5%

Source: The Market Edge

Improving Markets Index

1223

3041

76

98 99 101 100

80 84 80

99103

125

201

242

259

Pe

rmit

s

4225

4790

5015

5137

4348

5294

3749

3297

Source: local government permitting departments

J11

F M A M J J A S O N D J12

F M A M J J A S O N D J13

F

-27.7%

-18%

-11.7%

-22.5%

-2.4%

59.6%

34.2%

13.2%

-1.2%

97.5%

49.5%48.8%

29.9%

38.6%

52.6%

NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTSWHAT HOME BUYERS

REALLY WANT

The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers

47% want three bedrooms32% want four bedrooms

57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home31% prefer two stories

Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement

48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2nd floor70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1st floor

Buyers focus on “Quality & Appearance” where looking at home components such as flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc.

while…When looking at appliances, the focus is on “Quality & Brand”

Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders

NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

• In the Kitchen:A walk-in pantry, table space for

eating and a double sink are considered essential/desirable by 84% of buyers

• In the Bathroom:An exhaust fan, linen closet and both

a shower stall and tub in Master bath are essential/desirable to 80% of buyers


• When Rating Windows:

67% want energy star rated windows, triple pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass

• Decorative Features:

88% Want ceiling fans

60% Want built-in shelving and ceiling crown molding


• Laundry Room:57% Buyers find it essential and would not buy a home without it

36% Find it desirable

• Garage Storage:32% Rate it essential54% Desirable


• The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features:

90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable

83% Patio

80% Front porch

• Master Bath Location:

45% Essential

36% Desirable


• 62% Would choose a smaller home with higher quality products and amenities than a larger home with fewer amenities

• 73% Agree that the projected utility costs of a home would influence their decision today

• 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a builder that provides home energy ratings


• Location of choice for new home buyers:Central City – 8 %Close-in Suburbs – 30%Outlying Suburb – 38%Rural Area – 27 %

and small towns

• Community features to seriously influence the buying decision:

Walking/Jogging Trails – 60%Park Area - 54%Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50%


• 70% of home buyers see value in professional designations for building/remodeling contractors

‒ “More Professional & Credible”‒ “Provide better quality work and

craftmanship”‒ “Provide better service levels”‒ “More Reliable”

Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor:1. “Reputation for quality construction”2. “Reputation for completing projects on budget”


Type of Home Preferred(Percent of Respondents)


Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers(Percent of Respondents)


31% 54%

36% 49%

32% 54%

48% 40%

35% 54%

39% 51%

41% 49%

53% 37%

28% 63%

57% 36%

36% 58%

Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable(Percent of Respondents)


6% 27%

6% 31%

21% 39%

17% 45%

21% 51%

22% 55%

29% 49%

26% 54%

27% 56%

41% 49%

Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable(Percent of Respondents)


2004 2007 2012

A full bath on the main level

75 74 81

Non-slip floor surfaces

62 53 63

An entrance without steps

42 38 50

Bathroom aids, such as grab bars

or seating in shower

40 35 46

Accessibility Features - History(Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012

and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 )


Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a Living Room by Division

(Percent of Respondents )


Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers toChoose a Community



2004 2007 2012

Walking/jogging trails 51 49 60

Park area 52 43 54

Outdoor swimming pool 36 36 50

Lake 32 33 45

Exercise room 30 27 39

Convenience Store n/a 28 32

Drug Store n/a 28 32

Playgrounds 26 22 31

Public transportation 34 24 29

Clubhouse 21 21 26

Security guard at gate 30 17 25

Card-operated gate, no guard 16 14 19


Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision - History


2004 2007 2012

Tennis courts 10 10 17

Arts and Crafts n/a 7 14

Basketball courts 9 8 13

Business center 17 8 13

Billiard room 9 6 12

Daycare center 9 8 9

Baseball/ softball field 8 6 9

Soccer field 5 4 6

Racquetball courts 4 3 6

Equestrian facilities n/a 3 5

Other 11 13 6


Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision – History Cont.


NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY

61% Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37% who choose to live on smaller lots within walking distance to schools, stores and restaurants

78% Americans consider being within 30-minutes of work important in choosing where to live.

88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is a bigger consideration where to live than the size of the house.

Important Choice Decisions77% Sidewalks and places to take a walk75% High quality public schools

Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey


Importance of Community Characteristics

Preferred Versus Actual Community Type


22%16%

14%18%

19%12%

26%28%

19%11%

5%8%

Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type


national association of home builders

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