natcatservice and flood issues focus on europe petra lÖw may 2011

NATCATSERVICE AND FLOOD ISSUES FOCUS ON EUROPE

PETRA LÖW

May 2011

MUNICH RE AND THE NATCATSERVICE

Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database

Focus on Europe

An insurance perspective on flood events

© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

NatCatSERVICE

Munich Re Insurance Company

• Founded 1880• Largest Reinsurer worldwide

NatCatSERVICE

• Offices in 60 countries worldwide• Leading insurer of natural hazards

• Gross premium 2010: EUR 24bn • NatCat losses 2010: EUR 1.5 bn

n Atlantan Chicagon Columbusn Hart fordn Kansas Cityn Montrealn New Yorkn Philadelphian Princetonn San Franciscon Toronton Vancouver

n Bogotán Buenos Airesn Caracasn Mexicon Santiago de Chilen São Paulo

n Aucklandn Melbournen Perthn Sydney

n Hongkongn Kolkatan Kuala Lumpurn Mumbain Beijingn Schanghain Seouln Singaporen Taipehn Tokyo

nMunichnAthensnGenevan Londonn Lisbonn MadridnMilannMoscown ParisnWarsaw

n Accran Johannesburgn Cape Townn Nairobin Port Louis

Munich Re Insurance Company


NatCatSERVICE

• Founded 1974• Based on a unique paper archive at country basis

• One of the most comprehensive database on natural catastrophes• Focus on overall and insured losses

Global loss database about natural catastrophesNatCatSERVICE


NatCatSERVICE

Global loss database about natural disastersNatCatSERVICE


NatCatSERVICE

Global loss database about natural disastersData

Year Number of data sets

0079 - 999 40

1000 - 1499 200

1500 - 1899 1 100

1900 - 1949 1 200

1950 - 1979 2 800

1980 - 2010 22 000

>28,000 data sets


STRUCTURE OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE DATABASE


Focus on Europe


NatCatSERVICE

Global loss database about natural disastersPeril hierarchy and terminology

Storm- Tropical storm- Extratropical storm- Convective storm- Local storm

Geophysical events Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events

Earthquake

Mass movement (dry)- Rockfall- Landslide- Subsidence

Volcanic eruption

Flood- General flood- Flash flood- Storm surge

Mass movement (wet)- Rockfall- Avalange- Landslide- Subsidence

Extreme temperature- Heat wave- Cold wave- Extreme winter conditions

Drought

Forest fire


RegionDetailsDamages

Hurricane Ike






USA Cuba Turks & Caicos

Dom. Rep Haiti Bahamas

NatCatSERVICE

Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Region-Event


*in 2010 values

*in 2010 values

NatCatSERVICE

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2010Percentage distribution

19,400 Loss events 2,275,000 Fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 3,000bn Insured losses* US$ 740bn

14%

38%35%

13%

38%

19%11%

32%

22%

41%

24%

13% 10%

76%

8%6%

Meteorological events(Storm)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

500%1

98

0

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Geophysical events

Storm events

Hydrological events

Temperature extremes and others

Linear (Geophysical events)

Linear (Storm events)

Linear (Hydrological events)

Linear (Temperature extremes and others)

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2010Number of events with trend – relative trend per hazard group

NatCatSERVICE


Severe storm

Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people



Food Landslide Hail

NatCatSERVICE

Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event


source: AP

NatCatSERVICE


Severe storm, flash floods July 2007Baiersdorf, Germany


source: AP

NatCatSERVICE


117m € overall losses

87m € insured losses

in a town of 7,000 people


FOCUS ON EUROPE


Focus on Europe

An insurance perspective of flood events

Natural Catastrophes in Europe 1980 - 2010Map

NatCatSERVICE

Earthquake 1980Italy (Irpinia)Overall losses*: € 11.8bnInsured losses*: € 0.04bnFatalities: 2,900

Floods 2002Europe (Elbe, Danube)Overall losses*: € 21.9bnInsured losses*: € 3.5bn

Heatwave, drought 2003EuropeOverall losses*: € 12.3bnInsured losses*: € 0.02bnFatalities: 70,000**

Winter Storm Daria 1990Europe (esp. United Kingdom)Overall losses*: € 5.9bnInsured losses*: € 4.4bn

Winter Storm Xynthia, storm surge 2010Europe (esp. France)Overall losses*: € 4.5bnInsured losses*: € 2.3bn

Winter Storm Lothar 1999Europe (esp. France)Overall losses*: €11.5bnInsured losses*: € 5.9bn

Heatwave, wildfires 2010RussiaFatalities: 56,000**

Winter Storm Kyrill 2007Europe (esp. Germany)Overall losses*: € 7.8bnInsured losses*: € 4.5bn

Floods, 2007United KingdomOverall losses*: € 6bnInsured losses*: € 4.4bn

Floods 2000Europe (esp. Italy)Overall losses*: € 10bnInsured losses*: € 0.57bn

Floods, flash floods 1994ItalyOverall losses*: € 7.5bnInsured losses*: € 0.05bn

Natural disasters

Deadliest and costliest events*

* Losses in original values** Excess mortality rate



Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami,

volcanic eruption)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Earthquake 2009Italy (L’Aquila)Overall losses*: € 2bnInsured losses*: € 0.2bnFatalities: 295


Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Number of events

NatCatSERVICE

Number





50

100

150

200

250

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010


Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 - 2010 Percentage distribution: Loss events and fatalities

4,100 Loss events 150,000 Fatalities

NatCatSERVICE





Earthquake12%

Volcano1% Tsunami

<1%Mass movement dry

<1%

Winterstorm

6%

Blizzard / Snowstorm

1%

Local windstorm4%

Sandstorm<1%

Severe storm16%

Lightning<1%Tornado

3%Hailstorm4%

Flood14%

Flash flood9%

Storm surge<1%

Mass movement wet 7%

Winter damage3%

Cold wave<1%

Heat wave1%

Drought1%

Wildfire10%

Earthquake3%

Flood2% Flash flood

1%Mass movement

wet (av, ls, ro)1%

Cold wave1%

Heat wave93%


1,700 storm events

700 with floods/flash floods

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall and insured losses

NatCatSERVICE

(bn EUR)

Overall losses (in 2010 values) Insured losses (in 2010 values)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010


AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE OF FLOOD EVENTS


Focus on Europe


This costs .......

This costs ......

MRNatCatSERVICE

Problems in data chasingEarly loss estimates (often proclaimed by politicians)

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall and insured losses of flood events

NatCatSERVICE

(bn EUR)



2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

EUR 29.6 bn

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall losses of flood events

NatCatSERVICE

(bn EUR)



2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Insured losses of flood events

NatCatSERVICE

(bn EUR)



1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

without flood control

T = 0 h

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events

NatCatSERVICE



T = 4 h


NatCatSERVICE


additional measures (e.g. sand bags)


T = 6 h


NatCatSERVICE


surface flooding

property damage often reduced, sometimes even avoided


T = 8 h


NatCatSERVICE


with flood control

T = 0


NatCatSERVICE


with flood control

T = 4 h


NatCatSERVICE


with flood control

T = 6 h

no surface flooding

people feel safe, do not undertake precautionary measures


NatCatSERVICE


with flood control

T = 8 h


NatCatSERVICE


with flood control

T = 8 h 10 min.

when the dyke fails, no measures are possible anymore


NatCatSERVICE


with flood control

T = 8 h 10 min.

high flow velocities causes greater destruction


NatCatSERVICE


Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall and insured losses of flood events

NatCatSERVICE

Year Region Overall losses(in m EUR)

Insured losses(in m EUR)

% Insured

2010 Croatia. Germany. Hungary. Romania. Slovakia. Czech Republic. Poland. Austria

3,100 230 7,4%

2007 United Kingdom 3,000 2,200 73%

2005 Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, Switzerland

2,700 1,400 51%

2003 France 1,270 750 59%

2002 Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia

16,800 3,500 21%


THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

PETRA LÖW

natcatservice and flood issues focus on europe petra lÖw may 2011

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