nanotechnology from 1959 to 2029 challenges & opportunities: the future of nano & bio...
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Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029
Challenges & Opportunities:
The Future of Nano & Bio Technologies
Chris Phoenix
Overview
Important time periods➲ Feynman to mid-80's➲ 1986 to 2007➲ 2008 to 2022➲ 2022 to 2029
Important technologies➲ Nanoscale technologies➲ Molecular manufacturing➲ Other significant technologies
Before “Nanotechnology”
➲ Richard Feynman, 1959:“There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom”
➲ Colloids➲ Electron microscopes➲ Von Neumann➲ Early 80's: Drexler publishes peer-
reviewed articles
Mid 1980's: Nanotechnology Begins
➲ Drexler publishes Engines of Creation
➲ Foresight Institute founded➲ “Grey goo” worries begin➲ “Universal assembler,”
“disassembler”➲ “Nanotechnology”
Early Molecular Manufacturing
➲ Based on biology● Small manufacturing systems● Organic-like chemistry
➲ High performance➲ Large potential impact➲ Attracted transhumanists,
cryonicists, etc.
Molecular Manufacturing's Power
Scaling lawsLow friction and wearGeneral-purpose manufacturingHighly reliable operationHigh material strengthInexpensive material (carbon)
Skepticism
➲ How can a machine reproduce?➲ Won't quantum uncertainty...?➲ How can you power it?➲ How can you control it?➲ Chemistry is too unreliable!
Nanomedicine
➲ Build with molecules --> meet cells at their own level.
➲ Small and numerous --> whole-body interventions
➲ Respirocytes, etc.➲ 1999: Freitas --> Nanomedicine I➲ 1996-2002: Vasculoid
Vasculoid: Replace Blood
➲ 150 trillion plates lining blood vessels
➲ 166 T boxes transport molecules and cells inside hollow tube
➲ Avoid bleeding, poisons, metastasized cancer, etc.
➲ Extremely aggressive but appears possible
➲ 111 pages long, 587 references
1990's: Concepts Mature
➲ Drexler publishes Nanosystems● Lots of physics analysis● Diamondoid● Nanofactories● Largely ignored outside community
➲ Other “nanotechnology”➲ Skepticism (e.g. SciAm)
Physics of Nanosystems
Scaling LawsPower density ~ L^-1Component density ~ L^-3Operation frequency ~ L^-1Relative throughput ~ L^-4
Atom-scale PhysicsSuperlubricityDiscrete dimensionsQuantum phenomena
2000: Nanotech Goes Mainstream
➲ National Nanotechnology Initiative● $1B per year for nanotech● Nanotech defined as anything small
and interesting➲ “Why The Future Doesn't Need Us”
● Stated that one “oops” could destroy the world with grey goo
➲ Strong incentive to marginalize molecular manufacturing
Nanoscale Technologies
Build small objects and structuresUse big machinesLimited product range Diverse but limited applicationsLots of cool physics tricksNot just one technology; not even a
familyMaterials, not products
2000-2007
➲ Nanoscale tech advances in many directions
➲ Nanoparticle concerns➲ CRN founded Dec. 2002➲ Drexler/Smalley debate➲ NMAB report➲ Opposition to MM slowly fades
Nanoscale tech in the stone age
➲ Unlock natural properties➲ Access the small stuff indirectly➲ Very sophisticated techniques
needed➲ Useful and complex products➲ Limited flexibility
➲ Ask a flint knapper to make a gear...(Ask a flint knapper what good a gear
is...)
2000-2007 (continued)
➲ Nanofactory architecture matures➲ Foresight/Battelle Productive
Nanosystems Roadmap➲ NanoRex➲ Zyvex➲ Nanofactory Collaboration➲ Ideas Factory
Nanofactory Architecture
➲ “Design of a Primitive Nanofactory”● Chris Phoenix, Oct. 2003, JETpress● Demonstrate that nanofactories could
be bootstrapped quickly● Physical architecture, power,
redundancy, product specification and capabilities, bootstrapping time, etc., etc.
● 73 pages
Burch/Drexler Nanofactory
➲ “Productive Nanosystems: From Molecules To Superproducts”
➲ Video released July 2005➲ Introduced planar assembly➲ Obsoleted about ¼ of Primitive
Nanofactory paper
NIAC Contract
➲ With Tee Toth-Fejel➲ Developed bootstrapping concepts➲ Fleshed out planar-assembly
nanofactory architecture➲ Showed one of many ways to
develop exponential manufacturing
“Tattoo Needle” architecture
Recent tech advances
➲ Oyabu: Pick and place silicon atoms
➲ Schafmeister: rigid biopolymer➲ Rothemund: DNA staples➲ Freitas, Merkle, Drexler, Allis:
mechanosynthesis studies➲ Seeman: DNA building DNA
2008-2015
➲ Nanoscale tech continues● Better computers● Medicine(!)● Materials● Sensors
➲ Molecular manufacturing continues● More scanning probe chemistry● Better designs● More mainstream acceptance
2016-2022
➲ Diamond fabrication by SPM➲ Push for a nanofactory (may
happen earlier)➲ Nanoscale science matures➲ Nanoscale tech keeps growing,
needs better manufacturing➲ Recognition of MM implications??➲ Nanofactory??
2023-2029
General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologies
● Medicine● Brain/machine interface● Spaceflight● Computers/networks/sensors● Planet-scale engineering(?)
Bootstrapping Options
➲ Direct diamond synthesis (Freitas)➲ Biopolymer machines (Drexler)➲ Molecular building blocks (Toth-
Fejel)➲ Top-down manufacturing (Hall)➲ Other covalent solids
Development Cost of MM
In 1980's, tens or hundreds of $BIn 1990's, a few $BIn 2000's, several hundred $MIn 2010's, tens of $MIn 2020's, a few $M(This is for a ten-year program)
Would have been worth it in 1980!
Conclusion
➲ Molecular manufacturing will be developed soon
➲ This is where nanotechnology is going
➲ It will be more powerful, and more impactful, than we can easily imagine