nanomaterials 2010

Trends & OpportunitiesFor Nanomaterials

Tim HarperCientifica Ltd / Envision ALR

Nanomaterials 2010

Tuesday, 8 June 2010

Tim Harper

• Engineer at European Space Agency

• Serial Entrepreneur

• Founder of European NanoBusiness Association

• Chair / Chief Advisor of Several National Funding Bodies

• World Economic Forum Emerging Technologies Council / Tech Pioneers

• President, Nanotechnologies at Envision ALR

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We Wrote The Book on “Nano” in 2002

“The Nanotechnology Opportunity Report is a breakthrough - it is the first complete report of the state of our field”

-Meyya Meyyappan director of the Center for Nanotechnology at NASA Ames, March 2002

3


And Rewrote It In 2008

"Almost a billion dollars of investors cash has been poured down the drain by investors who did not understand the crucial difference between a science project and a successful company, egged on by a plethora of nanotech ‘experts,’ while large corporations have laughed all the way to the bank”

4


Envision A Living Revolution (“Envision”) was launched in 2006 with the vision of becoming a leading integrated operating company in the markets of

• Healthcare

• Energy

• Green Chemicals & Materials

• Water

Envision ALR


Envision ALREnvision builds strategic and profitable positions in these markets by acquiring & commercialising underexploited technology platforms in the scientific fields of:

• Regenerative Medicine

• Nanotechnology

• Industrial Biotechnology

Envision employs an integrated operating model and full life-cycle funding approach allowing it to drive commercialization from the point of technology acquisition all the way through manufacturing and marketing

Envision develops products that can be marketed under Envision’s own brand, or marketed by partners, under their own brands


Nanotechnologies -From A Passive To An

Active Role

7


6,500,000

7,250,000

8,000,000

8,750,000

9,500,000

10,250,000

11,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Global Population Growth

Medium High Low


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5,000

10,00

0

15,00

0

20,00

0

25,00

0

30,00

0

35,00

0

40,00

0

45,00

0

2007 2022

Population Pressure

GDP per capita (in 2000 USD)

World Average Income Per Capita

2007 Population Distribution

2007 Expenditure Per Capita


Can Technology Avoid War, Famine, Pestilence

or Worse?

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5000 Years of Science

12



Humans have

12



Humans have

• Been observing the world for 5000 years

12



Humans have


• Significantly changing it for 100 years

12



Humans have


• Significantly changing it for 100 years

• Understanding our actions for 20 years

12


Control Over Materials

Materials Have Always Been Vital to Humanity

• Clothing,

• Heating, hunting tools

• Coal, iron, oil, copper

• Semiconductors

• Satellites

13


Materials Have Shaped Our Culture

10,000 BC

Stone & Wood

Nanotechnology

Adapted from Herrmann, W. Chem. Eng. Technol. 21(7), 549 (1998)

Synthetic Biology

0

Cement Steel

1800

Iron

1000 BC 1900’s

PolymersComposites

2000 2010

14


Science Enables New Technologies

1650 1950 2050

Com

plex

ity

Con

trol

15



1650 1950 2050Semiconductors

Com

plex

ity

Con

trol

15




Biotechnology

Com

plex

ity

Con

trol

15




BiotechnologyNanotechnologies

Com

plex

ity

Con

trol

15





Synthetic Biology

Com

plex

ity

Con

trol

15





Synthetic Biology

Com

plex

ity

Geoengineering?

Con

trol

15


Moving From Control Of Materials to Control of

Things

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Things

Materials• Metals

• Semiconductors

• Food Processing

Passive16



Things

Materials• Metals

• Semiconductors

• Food Processing

Things• Crops

• Cells

• The Planet?

Passive Active16


Working D

raft - Last Modified 19.11.2009 10:26:59

Printed 03.11.2009 13:57:36

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Shifting centers of economic activity Dramatic realignment of GDP, urbanization, new geo-political balance

3 Limited resources Resource demand rapidly outpaces supply (oil, gas, coal, water, biomass, and other raw materials), price volatility

9 global trends selected for discussion

4 Increasing scarcity and unequal distribution of water

Demand for clean water rapidly outpaces supply in regions where majority of the world's population lives*

7

Social life in a technological world Connectivity transforms the way we live and interact

2 Rapidly growing demand for energy Energy security becoming a bigger geopolitical concern

5 Growing demand for food, nutrition, and health

Agricultural production struggling to satisfy increasing demand for high-calorie quality food and health care

1 Climate change, environment, and sustainability

Carbon productivity and adaptation becoming an increasingly dominant factor in all business decisions

9 Corporate global citizenship Companies increasingly consider all stakeholders, particularly with respect to environmental sustainability

6 Demographics, including shifting populations and mobility

Over 1 billion new consumers (e.g., China and India); ageing population; exploding demand for transport

8

* By 2030, 40% of global GDP and 85% of the world's population will be in regions where water demand exceeds supply (HBR July-August 2009, p. 1)

Source: McKinsey; inputs from WELCOM call 21 July 2009; bilateral discussions at World Economic ForumTuesday, 8 June 2010

Huge Potential: Tiny Rewards


Oxonica

• Spun out in 1998 from University of Oxford

• Raised £12.5m from investors

• AIM flotation in June 2005 raised additional £7.5m

• Market Cap of £150m in 2005

• Market Cap of £1.5m and delisted in 2009

A History of Technology Push 1


• All products were based on nanoparticles

• Manufacturing was outsourced

• Products were quickly commoditised

• Margins always under pressure

• Lone acquisition did nothing to secure markets, supply chains or diversify

• Messy and costly IP disputes

Why Did They Fail?


Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc

• February 2005: 30 patents issued, 70 applications pending and were hoping to corner the world market

• March 2007: Acquired for $5.4m in stock by Arrowhead Research and merged with Unidym

• February 2009: Unidym replaces CEO and closes old CNI facilities in Houston

• July 2009: “Zero employees”

A History of Technology Push 2


CNI HAS THE BRAINS, THE CASH, NOW ALL IT NEEDS IS THE MARKET

Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. seems to have it all – a Nobel laureate as its co-founder, a veteran management team, $15 million in angel funding and a working pilot plant. What the carbon nanotube producer lacks is a commercial product and a market. CNI is positioning itself to dominate once that happens by building its business and production capabilities simultaneously.

-July 29, 2002

Why Did ey Fail?


A Rather Obvious Conclusion


• Technology Push Doesn’t Work!• Hundreds of millions of dollars and twenty

years of research have yielded little of value – why?

• Basic business premise was to push the technology onto an agnostic market




Need to incorporate nanomaterials in products which

address real markets and problems


Nanomaterials Already In Widespread Use

24


• Composite Materials

• Conducting Polymers

• Thin Film Photovoltaics


24



24


Composite Applications

• Automotive body parts

• Aerospace composites & coatings

• Packaging

• Conducting polymers

25


Nanocomposite Materials

• Polymer + nanoparticle, nanofibre or clay

• Increases strength & rigidity

• Lowers weight

• Much of value is in the formulation rather than the filler

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Nanocomposite Materials

• Polymer + nanoparticle, nanofibre or clay

• Increases strength & rigidity

• Lowers weight

• Much of value is in the formulation rather than the filler

Abalone Shell - Nanoscale Engineering26


Nanocomposite Use In Automotive Industry

• Conducting composites for better paintability

• Moulding cycle time reduction

• Improved mechanical properties

• High scratch resistance paints

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• Demand Drivers

• Rising demand for touch screens and flat panel displays

• Increasing use of thin film solar panels

• Solar applications and displays require better materials than Indium Tin Oxide

• Global supply of Indium is limited

Replacing Indium With Conductive Inks

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Conducting Polymers at Envision

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iLab

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A Paradigm Shift in Medical Diagnostics

Broad range of Point-of-Care applications

• Complete blood profiling

• HIV/STD testing

• Infectious diseases

• Molecular Diagnostics:

• Cardiovascular diseases

• Cancer diagnostics

• Animal health

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Nanosolar

33


market volume (Billion $)

200

150

100

50

0

Siliconsemiconductors

Printedsemiconductors

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102015

20202025

2030

Market forecast SIA, IDTechEx 200634


No Quick Returns?

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• It will take ten to twenty years for new sources for renewables to become competitive with existing sources

No Quick Returns?

35



• Market forces will drive up the cost of dwindling resources in the meantime

No Quick Returns?

35



• Market forces will drive up the cost of dwindling resources in the meantime

• Current investment levels in renewables have priced many investors out of the market

No Quick Returns?

35


It Takes $1Bn To Get In The Solar Game

36



• Konarka Technologies burned through over $100 million in VC funding

36




• Nanosolar has raised $295 million to date

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• Nanosolar has raised $295 million to date

• Realistic opportunities are enabled by organic solar, not producing solar

36


Resources Are Getting Scarcer

• Global competition for resources

• Demand driven by increasing and increasingly affluent population

• Some resources are almost exhausted

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Metal Remaining Supply*

Indium 5-10 yearsAntinomy 15-20 yearsPlatinum 15 yearsHafnium 10 yearsTantalum 20-30 yearsUranium 30-40 years

Scarce Resources

Armin Reller, U. Augsburg, Tom Graedel, Yale

* Pre Global Economic Crisis38


The Rare Earth

• Global demand for rare earths has tripled from 40,000 tonnes to 120,000 tonnes over the past 10 years

• China now controls 97% of the global supply of 17 rare earths

• 25% of new green technologies rely on minor metals and rare earths

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A Fuel Efficient Resource Hog

• Each electric Prius motor requires 1 Kg of neodymium

• Each battery uses 10 to 15 kg of lanthanum

• The most rare earth intensive product on the planet

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$0.5B

2006 20112007 2008 2009 2010

$3.0B

$2.5B

$2.0B

$1.5B

$1.0B

Global Market for Transparent Conductors

LCD Displays

Solar Cells

Touch Screens,& other electronics

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1 2 3 4 5 6

Uses of Indium

41


http://www.mirusinnovations.com/assetsftp/LCD_17.JPG




















He Could Be Right!

“Rare earths are to China as oil is to the Middle East”

- Deng Xiaoping (1992)

42


What Can We Do?

43


We Have The Tools

44


How To Use Them?

45


Using Emerging Technologies

• Emerging technologies are critical to long-term global prosperity

• Innovative technologies do not conform to conventional technology development paradigms

• Effective policies for nurturing and employing emerging technologies are largely absent or poorly formed in government, industry and other stakeholder organisations

46


Understanding Nature

47


A Top Down Approach

48


A Bottom Up Approach

49


By Copying This Trick

Reducing friction between container ships hull & water could

• Save 1% of global oil consumption or

• 850,000 barrels per day

50


An Old Trick For Textiles

51


Synthetic BiologyLongest Published DNA Sequence

52Source: Rob Carlson synthesis.cc


A Lot Like Moore’s Law53


Not Just Biofuels

Converting waste products into feedstock

• Wheat & Rice Straw to Sugars

➡Sugars to Glycol

➡Glycol to Bioplastics

54


Reducing Our Dependence On This

55


Cleaning Up The Mess


What We NeedSector Need Solution

FoodImprove Yields

Address MalnutritionGM Crops

Golden Rice

EnergyReduce Consumption

Generate Clean energy

CompositesPhotovoltaicsWind/ Tidal

ClimateAlternative Fuels

Make Better Use of What We Have

Industrial BiotechSynthetic BiologyNanomaterials

Disease Earlier & Cheaper DetectionEffective Treatment

Synthetic BiologyTargeted Nanoparticle Drug

Delivery

57


Can We Do It?

58


Can We Do It?

Well...

58


Can We Do It?

Well...

• The innovation process is inefficient

58


Can We Do It?

Well...


• Capital for Emerging Technologies is Poorly Educated

58


Can We Do It?

Well...


• Capital for Emerging Technologies is Poorly Educated

• Governments Lack Foresight

58


Inefficient Innovation

59



To get there we need

59




• Scientists to realise commercial potential

59





• Investor to both ‘get it’ and have liquidity

59






• Quality management to take it to market

59






• Quality management to take it to market

• Market pull rather than technology push

59


VC investments are highly concentrated• 6 of 17 industries receive >73% of investment• “Me too” company investments are common

Sectors are selected with inexperience• Example: $ Billions invested into biofuels

• Investments have unrealistic expectations• > $100 MM in annual revenue targets• Ignoring advances and “foundation technologies”

The Capital Gap

60


Government Foresight

• Huge pressure on finances

• Hard to second guess the market

• Governments have a poor record of picking winners

61


In The End...

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In The End...

• Technology has lead every economic and social advance for the last 10,000 years

62


In The End...


• It can create and clear up problems (e.g Ozone layer depletion)

62


In The End...


• It can create and clear up problems (e.g Ozone layer depletion)

• It is human nature to innovate

62


Conclusions

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Conclusions

Nanotechnologies and biosciences will be as important to the 21st Century as oil, polymers and semiconductors were to the 20th Century

63


Conclusions

Nanotechnologies and biosciences will be as important to the 21st Century as oil, polymers and semiconductors were to the 20th Century

We have the tools, lets use them wisely

63


[email protected]: @tim_harper


nanomaterials 2010

Technology

science project

years signicantly

control ofmaterials

years of science12

years of sciencehumans

materials materials

technology avoidwar

integrated operating