nahar spinning mills ltd - nse€¦ · nahar spinning mills ltd’s (nahar’s) q2fy12 revenues and...

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Enhancing investment decisions

Q2FY12 Result Update

Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest

that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure

This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:

This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL

(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for

any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without

any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold

any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this

Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be

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published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd Moving towards a better half

Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Industry Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods

Fair Value Rs 100 CMP Rs 50

November 28, 2011

Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd’s (Nahar’s) Q2FY12 revenues and earnings were in line with CRISIL Research’s expectations. As the company had recognised losses on high-cost cotton inventory carried forward to Q2FY12 in the previous quarter, it managed to register positive EBITDA margin. However, margin was still lower as cotton prices corrected further during the quarter. Though we could not talk to the management, we estimate the high cost of inventory is exhausted; therefore, going forward, the company is expected to post operating margin of around 12-13%. We maintain our fundamental grade of 3/5.

Q2FY12 result analysis • Revenues grew by 17% y-o-y (5.4% q-o-q) to Rs 4,085 mn. The 30%

growth in the yarn segment (~87% of quarterly revenues) was partially offset by ~25% de-growth y-o-y in the garments segment.

• EBITDA margin turned positive this quarter to 5.1% as compared to Q1FY12 (negative 21%), but was significantly lower y-o-y. The improvement in operating profitability was on account of inventory losses booked by the company in Q1FY12. Further decline in cotton and yarn prices resulted in poor margin for the quarter.

• The cotton yarn segment’s EBIT margin continues to remain negative though it improved significantly from the previous quarter. We expect it to turn positive in H2FY12.

• Lower operating profitability resulted in a net loss of Rs 172 mn; however, it was much less than the previous quarter’s net loss of Rs 901 mn. We expect Nahar to make losses for FY12 despite higher profitability in the second half.

Earnings estimates maintained

• We retain our earnings forecast. Nahar has exhausted its high-cost cotton and yarn inventory, and will replenish fresh cotton inventory at a lower cost. Nahar is expected to report 12-13% EBITDA margin during H2FY12 as compared to first half and achieve overall margin of 3.9%.

• The company is expected to benefit from high share of export (~80% of revenues) due to relatively higher depreciation of the rupee vis-à-vis other exporting countries’ currencies. However, weak bargaining power of yarn supplier in a slowing demand scenario, is expected to limit any major gain.

Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Nahar. We maintain our fair value of Rs 100 per share. Based on the current market price, the implied valuation grade is 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating income 10,008 11,093 13,938 16,968 18,747 EBITDA 1,346 1,928 3,004 667 2,606 Adj PAT (165) 539 1,202 (543) 886 Adj EPS-Rs (4.6) 14.9 33.3 (15.1) 24.5 EPS growth (%) (238.3) (421.6) 123.8 (145.4) NM Dividend yield (%) 2.5 2.3 2.4 - 4.9 RoCE (%) 4.7 9.6 13.5 (0.3) 10.5 RoE (%) (3.2) 10.1 19.7 (8.5) 13.6 PE (x) (5.0) 5.1 2.9 (3.3) 2.0 P/BV (x) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.7 5.6 20.2 5.1

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 4812

NSE ticker NAHARSPING

Face value (Rs per share) 5

Shares outstanding (mn) 36

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 1,805/35

Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 15,049/288

52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 144/47

Beta 1.2

Free float (%) 36.0%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 9,267

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.6

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

Nahar -20% -11% -44% -57%

NIFTY -10% 2% -11% -16%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

Vinay Chhawchharia [email protected]

Arun Vasu [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

am

en

tal G

rad

e

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

on

gD

ow

nsid

e

Str

on

gU

psi

de

64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

34.0% 34.1% 34.1% 34.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11

Promoter FII DII Others



Q2FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q2FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY12 H1FY11 y-o-y (%)

Net sales 4,085 3,874 3,486 5.4 17.2 7,959 6,471 23.0

Raw materials cost 2,613 3,705 1,576 (29.5) 65.8 6,318 3,017 109.4

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 64.0% 95.6% 45.2% -3164bps 1876bps 79.4% 46.6% 3276bps

Employees cost 241 228 221 5.6 8.8 469 422 11.2

Other expenses 1,022 769 901 33.0 13.4 1,791 1,707 4.9

EBITDA 208 (827) 787 (125.1) (73.6) (619) 1,325 -146.7

EBITDA margin 5.1% -21.3% 22.6% 2644bps -1748bps -7.8% 20.5% 2826bps

Depreciation 206 201 169 2.4 21.6 406 335 21.36

EBIT 2.4 (1,027.7) 617.8 (100.2) (99.6) (1,025.3) 990.6 -203.5

Interest and finance charges 262 308 88 (15.1) 197.2 570 215 164.68

Operating PBT (259) (1,336) 530 (80.6) (148.9) (1,595) 775 -305.73

Other Income 4 - 12 NM (61.3) 4 14 -67.0

PBT (255) (1,336) 541 (80.9) (147.1) (1,591) 789 -301.6

Tax (83) (435) 165 (81.0) (150.0) (518) 260 -299.0

PAT (172) (901) 376 (80.9) (145.8) (1,073) 529 -302.9

Adj PAT (172) (901) 376 (80.9) (145.8) (1,073) 529 NM

Adj PAT margin -4.2% -23.2% 10.8% 1902bps -1501bps -13.5% 8.2% -2165bps

No of equity shares (mn) 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1

Adj EPS (Rs) (4.8) (25.0) 10.4 (80.9) (145.8) (29.7) 14.6 -302.9

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Revenues were flat q-o-q PAT remained negative

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Yarn EBIT remained negative Yarn and garment revenue break-down

Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12

EBIT

Yarn 346.3 559 493 818.7 -1049 -43.6

Garment 27 71.3 17.5 30.2 15.3 46.5

EBIT (%)

Yarn 12.1% 18.6% 13.8% 24.6% -28.3% -1.2%

Garment 6.8% 10.2% 3.2% 6.7% 4.1% 8.9%

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

2,985 3,486 3,967 3,599 3,874 4,085

18.0

22.625.5

19.5

-21.3

5.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


(%)(Rs mn)

Revenue EBITDA Margin ( RHS)

152376 526 249

-901 -172

5.1%

10.8% 13.3%

6.9%

-23.2%

-4.2%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600


(Rs mn)

PAT PAT Margin ( RHS)

2,8643,004 3,560 3,325 3,709 3,743

400702 553 450 371 520

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Garments Yarn



Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-0

8

Apr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Feb-

11

May-1

1

Aug-1

1

Nov-1

1

Nahar NIFTY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Feb

-11

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-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug

-11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

('000)(Rs)

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Nahar



EARNINGS ESTIMATES MAINTAINED

Particulars Unit FY12E FY13E

Revenue (Rs mn) 16,968 18,747

EBITDA (Rs mn) 667 2,606

EBITDA margin % 3.9 13.9

PAT (Rs mn) -543 886

PAT margin % -3.2 4.7

EPS Rs -15.1 24.5

Source: CRISIL Research

Nahar posted EBITDA loss of Rs 619 mn during H1FY12 on account of huge

inventory losses booked on cotton in the first quarter. We expect the company

to report healthy EBITDA margins in the second half of FY12 as inventory losses

have been booked in the previous quarters. However, with fresh inventories at

lower prices, moderate demand and higher export competitiveness with rupee

depreciation, we expect EBITDA margin in H2FY12 to be 12-13%.

Indian Rupee has depreciated by ~17% YTD, highest among other competing

countries currencies. Bangladeshi Taka has depreciated by ~9%, Vietnam Dong

by ~8%, while Chinese Yuan has appreciated by ~4%.

Reversal in price trend from Q1FY11 Sharp depreciation in Re vs. competing currencies

-indexed to 100

Source: CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research

The contraction in profitability in H1FY12 will weigh heavily on the full-year

EBITDA margin; EBITDA margin in FY12 is expected to be ~4%, 1,700 bps

lower y-o-y. However, at the PAT level we expect it to end in red given the

significant contraction in operating profitability in H1FY12 and higher interest

costs.

59 6170 76 80

89

116

148135

104

124 128 134155

170181

197

229216

155

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1FY

10

Q2FY

10

Q3FY

10

Q4FY

10

Q1FY

11

Q2FY

11

Q3FY

11

Q4FY

11

Q1FY

12

Q2FY

12

(Rs per kg)

Cotton Cotton Yarn

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-1

1

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov-1

1India Bangladesh Vietnam China



VALUATION

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Nahar. We

maintain our fair value at Rs 100 per share. At this value, the implied P/B

multiples are 0.6x FY12E BV and 0.5x FY13E BV.

One-year forward P/B band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

CRISIL IER reports released on Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

25-Feb-11 Initiating coverage* 3/5 Rs 136 5/5 Rs 95

06-Jun-11 Q4FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 136 5/5 Rs 90

23-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 Rs 100 5/5 Rs 59

28-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 3/5 Rs 100 5/5 Rs 50

* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Apr-

09

Jun-

09

Jul-

09

Sep-

09

Nov-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar

-10

May-1

0

Jul-

10

Sep-

10

Nov-1

0

Jan-1

1

Mar

-11

May-1

1

Jul-

11

Sep-

11

Nov-1

1

(Rs)

Nahar 0.25x 0.50x 0.75x 1.00x



FINANCIALS

Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

Income statement Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating income 10,008 11,093 13,938 16,968 18,747 Liabilities

EBITDA 1,346 1,928 3,004 667 2,606 Equity share capital 181 181 181 181 181

EBITDA margin 13.5% 17.4% 21.6% 3.9% 13.9% Reserves 4,894 5,366 6,479 5,936 6,733

Depreciation 761 699 698 727 683 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 585 1,230 2,306 (61) 1,923 Net worth 5,074 5,546 6,660 6,116 6,914

Interest 867 486 635 759 622 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT (282) 744 1,671 (820) 1,301 Other debt 6,408 8,559 13,355 11,955 11,755

Other income 39 65 96 9 22 Total debt 6,408 8,559 13,355 11,955 11,755

Exceptional inc/(exp) (2) (4) (5) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 454 556 568 836 836

PBT (245) 805 1,762 (811) 1,323 Total liabilities 11,936 14,661 20,583 18,907 19,504

Tax provision (79) 270 565 (268) 436 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 6,486 6,470 7,512 7,585 7,152

PAT (Reported) (166) 535 1,197 (543) 886 Capital WIP 239 413 866 666 466

Less: Exceptionals (2) (4) (5) - - Total fixed assets 6,725 6,883 8,378 8,251 7,618

Adjusted PAT (165) 539 1,202 (543) 886 Investments 60 44 81 81 81

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 2,016 4,885 8,053 6,508 7,191

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 2,462 2,454 3,723 3,719 4,109

Growth Loans and advances 1,014 1,172 1,516 1,866 2,062

Operating income (%) 9.0 10.8 25.7 21.7 10.5 Cash & bank balance 94 183 111 219 174

EBITDA (%) 10.9 43.2 55.8 (77.8) 290.9 Marketable securities 145 65 59 59 59

Adj PAT (%) (244.1) (427.1) 123.2 (145.2) NM Total current assets 5,732 8,758 13,462 12,372 13,595

Adj EPS (%) (244.1) (427.1) 123.2 (145.2) NM Total current liabilities 582 1,026 1,340 1,799 1,791

Net current assets 5,150 7,733 12,122 10,574 11,804

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 1 1 1 1 1

EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 17.4 21.6 3.9 13.9 Total assets 11,936 14,661 20,583 18,907 19,504

Adj PAT Margin (%) (1.6) 4.9 8.6 (3.2) 4.7

RoE (%) (3.2) 10.1 19.7 (8.5) 13.6 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 4.7 9.6 13.5 (0.3) 10.5 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

RoIC (%) 6.0 8.6 11.5 1.2 8.5 Pre-tax profit (243) 809 1,767 (811) 1,323

Total tax paid (4) (169) (553) 535 (436)

Valuations Depreciation 761 699 698 727 683

Price-earnings (x) (5.0) 5.1 2.9 (3.3) 2.0 Working capital changes 1,797 (2,574) (4,467) 1,657 (1,276)

Price-book (x) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 Net cash from operations 2,310 (1,235) (2,554) 2,108 293

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.7 5.6 20.2 5.1 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.7 Capital expenditure (354) (856) (2,193) (600) (50)

Dividend payout ratio (%) (12.7) 11.8 7.0 - 10.0 Investments and others (87) 95 (31) - -

Dividend yield (%) 2.5 2.3 2.4 - 4.9 Net cash from investments (441) (761) (2,224) (600) (50)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - 0 - - -

Inventory days 94 212 293 162 178 Debt raised/(repaid) (1,864) 2,152 4,796 (1,400) (200)

Creditors days 23 38 42 37 38 Dividend (incl. tax) (21) (63) (84) - (89)

Debtor days 101 92 107 81 81 Others (incl extraordinaries) 6 (4) (5) - -

Working capital days 212 204 254 239 213 Net cash from financing (1,879) 2,085 4,707 (1,400) (289)

Gross asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 Change in cash position (10) 89 (71) 108 (46)

Net asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 Closing cash 94 183 111 219 174

Sales/operating assets (x) 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.4

Current ratio (x) 9.9 8.5 10.0 6.9 7.6 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 (Rs mn) Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12

Net debt/equity (x) 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 Net Sales 3,486 3,967 3,599 3,874 4,085

Interest coverage 0.7 2.5 3.6 (0.1) 3.1 Change (q-o-q) 17% 14% -9% 8% 5%

EBITDA 787 1,013 701 (827) 208

Per share Change (q-o-q) 46% 29% -31% -218% -125%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 22.6% 25.5% 19.5% -21.3% 5.1%

Adj EPS (Rs) (4.6) 14.9 33.3 (15.1) 24.5 PAT 376 526 249 (901) (172)

CEPS 16.5 34.3 52.6 5.1 43.5 Adj PAT 376 526 249 (901) (172)

Book value 140.5 153.6 184.4 169.4 191.5 Change (q-o-q) 147% 40% -53% -462% -81%

Dividend (Rs) 0.6 1.7 2.3 - 2.5 Adj PAT margin 10.8% 13.3% 6.9% -23.2% -4.2%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 Adj EPS 10.4 14.6 6.9 (25.0) (4.8)


CRISIL Research Team

Senior Director

Mukesh Agarwal +91 (22) 3342 3035 [email protected]

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Prasad Koparkar Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3137 [email protected]

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Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9920225174

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Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668

Delhi Arjun Gopalkrishnan - Manager, Business Development Email :[email protected] I Phone : 9833364422 Kolkata Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685 Mumbai / Pune Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685

Ashish Sethi – Head, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9920807575

Regional Contacts:

To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members:

Sagar Sawarkar – Senior Manager, Business Development

