nagel - adaptation and decision-making

ADAPTATION AND SILVICULTURAL DECISION-MAKING

SRS / NRS / RMRSChippewa NFSan Juan NFFlathead NF

Flathead National ForestJune 28, 2016

Linda Nagel, Professor & Department HeadForest & Rangeland StewardshipColorado State University

Adaptation and Mitigation = Synergistic

Mitigation Adaptation

Sequester Carbon in Trees, Forests, and Products

Conserve Carbon Stocks Strengthen Adaptability of Forest-Dependent Communities

Create Better-Adapted Forests

Mitigation

Modified from FAO 2010 2

Adaptation and Mitigation DefinedADAPTATION• Adjustment of human or natural systems in response to climate change

– Position forests to become more healthy, resistant, & resilient– Facilitate ecosystem responses to climate change when appropriate

MITIGATION• Human activities to reduce the effects of climate change by reducing sources and enhancing sinks of greenhouse gases

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What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to cope with change

andmeet goals and objectives?

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Desired Future Condition

TIME

Climate-Driven Changes

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TIME

Climate ChangeTrajectory

Climate-Driven Changes

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Uncertainty and RiskDesign actions that are robust across a range of potential future conditions

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Option #1 – ResistanceImprove the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain relatively unchanged conditions

• Short-term• High-value

Millar et al. 2007, 2008 8

Option #1 – ResistanceDesired Future Condition

TIME


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Option #2 – ResilienceAccommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a prior condition after disturbance

Millar et al. 2007, 2008

Photo: USFS

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TIME


Option #2 – Resilience

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Option #3 – Transition (Response)Intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing/new conditions

Millar et al. 2007, 2008 12

TIME


Option #3 – Transition (Response)

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Reduce climate change impacts

Promote change

Facilitate adaptive responses

Maintain current conditionsResistance

Transition(Response)

Resilience

Adaptation Options

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Forest Adaptation Resources

Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & ApproachesMenu of adaptation actions

Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

• Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management Workbook approach15

Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014

1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames.

2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest.

3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.

5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.

Identifying Adaptation Tactics

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Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources


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Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches


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Forest Adaptation Resources

• 10 strategies, 40 approaches• Result of literature review & expert

feedback and review• Provides a “menu” of possible

actions to choose from based upon your needsSwanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

Strategies & ApproachesMenu of adaptation actions

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

CONCEPT

ACTION


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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT Resistance

ResilienceTransition

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT

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Adaptation Strategies1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions2: Reduce the impact of existing biological stressors 3: Protect forests from severe fire and wind disturbance 4: Maintain or create refugia5: Maintain and enhance species and structural diversity 6: Increase ecosystem redundancy across the landscape 7: Promote landscape connectivity 8: Enhance genetic diversity 9: Facilitate community adjustments through species transitions 10: Plan for and respond to disturbance

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


More detailed adaptation actions that can be applied to a single forest type or ecosystem24

OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Prescriptive actions designed for specific site conditions and management objectives25

OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Resistance (forestall change)

Example 1

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Sustain fundamental ecological functions&Reduce the impact of stressors

CONCEPT Example 1

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Reduce stand density to reduce moisture stress

Example 1

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Remove 1/3 of the basal area thru low and crown thinning

Example 1

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Transition(encourage change)

Example 2

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Facilitate community adjustments through species transitions

CONCEPT Example 2

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Favor or restore native species that are expected to be better adapted to future conditions

Example 2

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OptionStrategy

ApproachTactic

ACTION


Create gaps, scarify, encourage natural regen, and plant drought-tolerant species (i.e., pines, oaks)

Example 2

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Activity #2Developing Adaptation Actions for Forests

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Least Projected ChangeMost Projected Change

Activity #2

CSIRO (B1) CSIRO (A1B) HAD (A1B) MIROC (A1B) MIROC (A2)

In this activity you will use your silvicultural expertise to illustrate how climate change and uncertainty may affect stand-level management for specific ecosystems or forest types

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Activity #2As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in 1) Create and describe a hypothetical management situation– Conditions: Location, site conditions, species composition, stand structure, disturbance history and susceptibility, etc.– Typical management: Management goals and objectives, common practices

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345

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Activity #2As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in 2) Identify important climate change considerations

– Anticipated effects on various forest components– Characteristics that increase/reduce vulnerability

3) Identify challenges or opportunities for meeting management goals under climate change

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Maps/data for this section courtesy of R. Neilson and MAPSS Vegetation Modeling Lab

To help think about climate change in your region

Precipitation change (summer and winter)Temperature change (summer and winter)

Activity #2

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Activity #2What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?

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Activity #2What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?

Where are you working and what are your forest management goals?Forest:Location and conditions:Current management:

What climate change impacts create challenges or opportunities for meeting these goals?

What actions would you recommend to enhance the ability of forests to adapt?Adaptation Tactics:1) 2) 3)

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Identifying Adaptation Tactics1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames.


3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.


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nagel - adaptation and decision-making

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