naacp battleground poll poll 20… · november 8, 2012 naacp battleground poll _____ ben jealous,...
TRANSCRIPT
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November 8, 2012
NAACP BATTLEGROUND POLL
_____________________________
Ben Jealous, President & CEO, NAACP Silas Lee, PhD Silas Lee and Associates Matt A. Barreto, PhD Principal Latino Decisions
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2012 African American Election Eve Poll
Four States
1,600 African American Voters
400 per state
November 1-5
Live callers, landline & cells
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93% were “enthusiastic” about the President, 79% “very enthusiastic”
SUPPORT FOR OBAMA AND BLACK INFLUENCE STATES
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African American Vote for President Obama in Four States
98 99 97 97 98
0
20
40
60
80
100
Combined Florida Ohio Virginia Georgia
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African American Impact in 2012 Growth in Black vote since 2004 was crucial
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African American Impact in 2012 Growth in Black vote since 2004 was crucial
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African American Impact in 2012 Additional states where Black vote exceeds the Obama margin Even more states where Blacks + Latinos create a minority influence bloc
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ISSUES IN THE 2012 ELECTION
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JOBS JOBS JOBS! Most Important Issues among African Americans
What are the most important issues facing the African American community that politicians should address?
• Jobs!
60%
55%
63% 59%
63%
23% 22% 22% 24% 24% 22%
24% 23%
19% 23%
Four State Total Florida Georgia Ohio Virgina
Jobs/Economy
Education
Health Care
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Is there a Federal Role in Protecting Minority Interests?
Despite 81% of African American voters embracing norms of self-reliance, they strongly see a role for the Federal Government.
52%
57%
67%
65%
36%
35%
29%
28%
5%
4%
2%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Affirmative Action
Housing Opportunities
Public Education
Voting Rights
Definitely Yes Yes No Definitely No
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RELATIONSHIP TO THE POLITICAL PARTIES
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African American Trust in Parties on Civil Rights
Are the parties working hard to address civil rights and equality?
1) Working Hard
2) Just saying what minorities want to hear
3) Don’t care at all… 71%
7%
18%
32%
2%
55%
Democrats
Republicans
Working Hard Just talk Don't care at all
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Comparing the Parties on Issues… African Americans see little effort from Republicans on issues of importance.
7%
15%
11%
14%
6%
65%
78%
84%
74%
30%
Working Hard on Poverty
Working Hard on Publc Education
Working Hard on Health Care
Working Hard on Job Opportunities
Working Hard to Reduce Mass Incarceration
Republicans
Democrats
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SUPPORTING CIVIL RIGHTS FOR ALL AMERICANS
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Strong African American Support for contemporary civil rights issues
34%
27%
53%
71%
23%
23%
27%
21%
7%
9%
7%
2%
24%
31%
8%
3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Same Sex Marriage Equality (w/ Religious Exemption)
Same Sex Marriage Equality
Comprehensive Immigration Reform w/ Path to Citizenship
DREAM Act
Strongly support Support DK Oppose Strongly Oppose
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Strong African American Support for contemporary civil rights issues
Support Same Sex Marriage with Religious Exemption – by Age
Net support Net oppose Edge All 57% 31% +26 18-30 67% 26% +41 31-44 62% 25% +37 45-65 55% 35% +20 66 plus 48% 39% +09 Support will only increase as younger voters come into the electorate
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LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
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Democrats Without Obama?
Projected enthusiasm for Democrats in 2016 AFTER Obama is significantly lower, suggesting a challenge for Democrats and opportunity for Republicans.
47%
79%
32%
14%
18%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2016 - Without Obama
2012 - With Obama
Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all/Don't know
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Would you be more likely to vote GOP if:
VOTES ON THE TABLE: With a better record or the right nominee, GOP could attract significantly more African American votes.
14% 15%
14% 13%
15% 14%
19%
13%
11%
13%
Four State Total
Florida Georgia Ohio Virgina
GOP took a stand for civil rights/equality GOP nominated Colin Powell
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November 8, 2012
NAACP BATTLEGROUND POLL
_____________________________
Ben Jealous, President & CEO, NAACP Silas Lee, PhD Silas Lee and Associates Matt A. Barreto, PhD Principal Latino Decisions