n. barry lyons on the toronto condo market for 2013
DESCRIPTION
Yesterday early morning, there was a meeting of the Toronto Condo Network and we had a great discussion about the Toronto Condo market with Consultant N. Barry Lyons who is an expert in what is happening in the Toronto Condo marketplace.TRANSCRIPT
Industry at a Crossroads?
Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell
February 22nd, 2013
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Toronto Skyline - 2004
Future Toronto Skyline
Future Downtown Toronto Core
Source: All pictures from Urban Toronto, courtesy of Scott Dickson
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
51% 43% 45% 50%
48%
51% 44% 42%
49%
56% 48%
49% 57%
55% 50%
52%
49% 56%
58%
51%
44%
52%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
# U
nit
s High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales
Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2013F
Resales
New Sales
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Ave
rage
Sal
e P
rice
# U
nit
Sal
es
Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012
New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
905 416
Tota
l Sal
es
(# U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416 Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto
Tota
l Sal
es
(# U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Sales By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Tota
l Sal
es
(# U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Sales By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Studio 5%
1 Bedroom 24%
1 Bedroom + Den 34%
2 Bedroom 23%
2 Bedroom + Den 9%
3 Bedroom & Up 2%
Penthouse 2%
Other 1%
New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2006
Studio 3%
1 Bedroom 19%
1 Bedroom + Den 26% 2 Bedroom
30%
2 Bedroom + Den 16%
3 Bedroom & Up 2%
Penthouse 3% Other
1%
New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2012
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000Ja
n-0
6
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
# o
f A
ctiv
e H
igh
-Ris
e S
ite
Un
sold
Inve
nto
ry (
# o
f U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012
High Rise Inventory
High Rise Site Count
8,534 3,906
9,832 12,279
10,066 15,046
14,361 15,407
12,957 11,259
16,304 14,223
10,575 19,197
47,581 17,772
7,118 1,910
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Total Units
New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2017F
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Planned New Downtown Toronto Office Buildings
Source: Colliers International
PATH System South of Front Street – at 1 York (Menkes and HOOPP Realty Inc.)
Source: Urban Toronto
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
New Union Pearson (Airport) Express – Planned Station at Union
Source: Union Pearson Express a division of Metrolinx
Dundas West – Bloor Mobility Hub
Source: Metrolinx
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown
Source: Metrolinx
Avenues Projects – Neighbourhood Oriented
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
The Rushton – St. Clair Avenue West
Source: Site Marketing Materials
Carmelina Condominiums – Danforth Avenue
Source: Site Marketing Materials
2013 – The Year of Incentives
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
3rd deal - Receive $3,500 bonus*
5th deal - Receive an additional $2,000 for a total of $5,500 bonus*
7th deal - Receive an additional $2,500
for a total of $8,000 bonus* 10th deal - Receive an additional
$4,000 for a total of $12,000 bonus*
15th deal -Receive an additional $6,000
for a total of $18,000 bonus* (Each deal must firm up to qualify)
Downtown East Gathering Momentum
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Canary District - Pan Am Athlete’s Village, Under Construction
Our Questions For The Condo Network 1) Is this a normal market slowdown or something else?
2) What are the current buyer attitudes?
3) Is there any interest in upgrading into newer condominiums?
4) Where are the young families going?
5) Are the empty nesters back?
6) Do you think the investors will be back in large numbers?
7) Do you see a glut of small units coming to the market?
8) If you had the choice, where would you locate a new condominium apartment project and what would it contain?
9) Do you see lower GTA immigration and a slowing Canadian economy affecting the market?
10) Are there any other questions we should be asking ourselves?