murder in new orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis dr. peter scharf research professor tulane...
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Murder in New Orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis
Dr. Peter Scharf
Research Professor
Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine
504-710-5625
April 5, 2011
New Orleans had more than 60 murders in the First Quarter of 2011This is an increase of 25% from 2010, a year in which
New Orleans led the US in per capita murder risks.
A starting thought:
“You cannot change what you do not understand“ Dr. Stanley Erickson, NIJ
The role of Public Health in Public Policy Discourse and Action-Murder in NOLA
I. Questions: 1-What is the source of/cure for New Orleans Murders?
Question: 2-What is source of health disparity re: NOLA murders?
Question: 3-What to do?-Public Health based alternatives
II. Source points A brief “History” of murder in New Orleans-1994-2011
424 murders(1994)
The “Rabbit”
Antoinette Franks:
'A Police Death Squad-Len Davis
Taylor’s Children, The Antoinettes and Mc Nuggets
Reforms(1996)Louisiana Pizza Kitchen
Murders
Pennington
March on City Hall
Salary increases
Saturation
COMPSTAT
Reduction in murders following Reforms
Murders from 1994-1999 decrease 62%
424 to 161 murders
Double national decline in murder rate
Dr. Kevin Unter “Melding Police and Policy to : A Study of the New Orleans Police Department”
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1994 1996 1998
Murders
per 100k
Top 30
Losing Focus: 2000-2005Gradual rise in murder risks
through storm (August 2005)
TP “Murder” articles (2004)
“Caveman” HS Gym Class Murder
Broken Windows and 100,000 arrests
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2002 2004
Murders
Per 100K
Top 30
The Divide: Hurricane KatrinaPreparations
Rogue NOPD Officers
The Third District Voyage to Baton Rogue
Heroes, victims and leadership-
Enduring stigma: Glover and Danziger Bridge
The Great Murder Diaspora “Gangs of New Orleans” Scharf: “This is one of the most
interesting experiments in crime we’ve ever seen. Without effective courts, corrections, or rehabilitation, we have reduced the crime rate by 100 percent.”
B Stupid Harris
To Houston and Back-commuter murderers
Meltdown: January 2007Nagin (Riley) administration
Helen Hill Murder
March on City Hall, January, 2007
Political Responses
“Daylight” -Mitch Landrieu and Ronnie Serpas and anomalyThe Promise of the 2010
Mayor’s Election and Chief Appointment
Hard Truths:
The Resistant culture of the NOLA murderers
NOPD 65 Point Plan
Consent Decree blues
What’s next?
Realities-Dope Wars: Victim Prior Contacts with Criminal Justice
Criminal History?
Yes 73.0%
No 27.0 %
Of those with history?
Violent priors 58.2 %
Property priors 54.8 %
Drug priors 67.8 %Crime in New Orleans: Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011
Offenders have substantial prior involvement with CJ systemCriminal History?
Yes 83.3%
No 13.7 %
Unknown 2.9 %
Of those with history:
Violent priors 58.8 %
Property priors 55.3 %
Drug Priors 57.6 %Crime in New Orleans: Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011
Constraint: Psychological Portrait of Young NOLA Murderers
Three years + lagging in Reading Scores
Gangs
Culture of violence
Low problem-solving ability
Immature moral reasoning
Poor social and conflict-resolution Skills
Armed
II . Sources of DisparityCity Perspective: The homicide rate in New Orleans is substantially higher than the rate in the nation, comparable-sized cities.
The rate of homicide in New Orleans was more than 10 times the national average and more than 4 times the rate for cities of a similar size.
Rate increased by 25% in first quarter 2011
Victims: Race and Gender of Victims?-African Americans at risk
Gender Male 86.5 %%Female 13.0 %Transgender 0.5 %Race Asian 1.0 %Black 91.5 %Hispanic 2.0 %White 5.0 %Other 0.5 %• Crime in New Orleans: Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et
al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011
African-African American offenders are over-represented, relative to race/gender
Gender
Male 95.1 %
Female 4.9 %
Race
Asian 1.0 %
Black 97.1 %
Hispanic 1.0 %
White 1.0 %Crime in New Orleans: Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011
Poverty as source of murder-risk disparity
17.6 % of the New Orleans population live below the poverty line compared to 13.2 % nationally.
In New Orleans, 38% of children live in poverty. (17% U.S.).
Role of Narco-Economy in many neighborhoods
Underground economy and homicide risksLink between poverty and homicide in
NOLACensus snapshots, 2011
Education: as source of murder risk disparityPublic school students in New Orleans are
overwhelmingly poor. 83% of students receive free or reduced lunches.
New Orleans overall population is approximately 63% minority, while public school students are nearly 95% minority- primarily African-American.
In the RSD-run and RSD charter schools, the majority of students are well below grade level.
Link between education and homicide:US Department of Education
Health Status as source of murder risk disparityInjuries
Sexual Abuse
Girl with one eye
FAS
Sexuality and murder
Untreated learning disabilities
Pepsi and “Twinkie Bar “Breakfasts
Links between health(SDH) and homicide:
Other theories regarding disparities and raceInstitutional Racism, in Criminal Justice System(DOJ
Civil Rights Division)
Differentials in invocation of the Police(Crutchfield)-African Americans in Study Called Police frequently
Digital Labeling and the Gulag- electronic job barrier
Access to Lawyers, Record Removal
Drug Trade Differentials
Dueling-urban gladiators
End Result “The drug trade is a virulent part of the
NOLA underground economy which has no legitimate civil/criminal justice system for disputes and offenses to be addressed resulting in vigilante justice and death” –Earl Williams, Hollygrove
IV. What to do?-10 public health ideas useful to to reduce homicide risks
Preliminary Thoughts: what do we know?
High Rate of Homicide Risk
High Rate of Disparities in Murder
High Social cost:$1,000,000.00 per murder, $2,000,000 .00 per lifelong injury
Where do we intervene? Do we know cause? Do we understand prevention measures?
Short term vs. longer term
Individual vs. community strategies
1) Develop an Integrated City Plan with Performance Measures
Scope of Plan Results
Outputs(Activities)
Outcomes(Results)
Efficiencies(Savings)
Example: 50% murder reduction in three years or increase RSD average reading scores by one year by 2014.
2) Review what worked in other citiesHomicides fall in large American cities
The long-term trend is particularly striking in the nation's three largest cities —New York Chicago and Los Angeles. Homicides in New York have dropped 79% during the past two decades — from 2,245 in 1990 to 471 in 2009, the last full year measured. Chicago is down 46% during that period, from 850 to 458. Los Angeles is down 68%, from 983 to 312.
USA TODAY December 29, 2010
3) Adopt Evidence Based Violent Crime Control Strategies: ART, MRT, MST, etc.Aggression Replacement TherapyMulti Systemic TherapyMoral Recognition TherapyEtc.
4) Break down organizational silos and create city- system), not agency strategiesA public health strategy requires integration of effort:
Successful cities utilized housing, health, schooling, corrections, education as components of an integrated plan.
No one component of government is capable of arresting murder risks on their own
Silos may be major cause of failure in stemming murder risks
5) Begin programs targeted at highest risk youth
Attempt to break down the gang culture haunting neighborhoods in New Orleans
Work to offer educational and vocational alternatives to drug and gang life
Work to provide trained mentors and alternative to gang peers.
6) Hold all agencies accountable for murder reduction related targets Every City Agency needs to develop a component of
the integrated city plan and be responsible for its execution.
Reduce gaps in education, housing, job access.
Success in meeting city milestones needs to be measured by valid performance measures.
7) Try something new! (with a track record)Maritime Institute
New Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago Ceasefire Models
Evidence based mentoring strategies
New evidenced based youth job training and match initiatives
Street gun eradication programs
Build upon evidence based findings
8) Assess to see if what we thought worked actually workedInitiate RCS studies related to murder prevention and
response strategies
Hone strategies to reduce violent crime based upon data
Create prevention systems not programs-Collins(Good to Great)
Celebrate and build upon each other’ s successes
9) Integrate short terms, intermediate and long term crime control strategies Break the drug gangs’ hold on the city with pro-active
intelligence led policing
Work with marginal participants in gang life to find jobs and recommit to education
Build out longer term “children’s zone” educational and vocational opportunities
Public Safety and Prevention are both core components of a successful strategy
10) Failure is not an optionDr. Steven Edwards (Bureau of Justice Assistance)
“ I get everything about New Orleans, except for one thing……”
“_____ _____ _______”
Thank you: your turn
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