multiple regression models for forecasting of inland passenger railway transportation in latvia
DESCRIPTION
MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF INLAND PASSENGER RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION IN LATVIA. Roman Gorky 1 , Eugene Kopytov 1 , Vasilijs Demidovs 1,2 1 Transport and Telecommunication Institute Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1
MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF INLAND PASSENGER RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION IN LATVIA
Roman Gorky1, Eugene Kopytov1, Vasilijs Demidovs1,2
1Transport and Telecommunication Institute
Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia
2State Join-Stock Company “Latvian Railway” Information Technology Centre Turgeneva 21, Riga, LV-1050, Latvia
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]; [email protected]
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 2
Index1 Introduction 1.1 Relevance of the theme 1.2 Current research 1.3 Actual research sources 1.4 Object structure and statistics
2 Research 2.1 The purpose of the research 2.2 Research objects and objectives
3 Regression model 3.1 Data source and tools 3.2 Regression model and data analysis
4 Conclusion
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 33
Relevance of the theme
In the present economic conditions the main volume of passenger rail transportation in Latvia is performed in local lines. To plan passenger rail transportation it is necessary to perform detailed analysis and forecasting of passenger flows in separate sectors, lines and regions of the railway on the whole territory of Latvia.
1.1
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 44
The main directions of current research in the field of passenger transport
• Decision support system (DSS)
• Issues related to the ecology
• Improving the safety of passengers
• Solve local government problems
• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
1.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 55
Actual research sources* • ERA-NET Transport (ENT) – is a sustainable network of
national transport research programs in Europe (www.transport-era.net)
• International Conference Series on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport - www.thredbo-conference-series.org
• Transport Research Knowledge Centre - www.transport-research.info
• Mendeley - one of the world’s largest crowd-sourced research (www.mendeley.com)
• Sydney eScholarship Repository - ses.library.usyd.edu.au
1.3
* Full list on website: bialive.org (“Links” category)
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 66
Passenger transportation modes in Latvia1.4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 77
PASSENGER TURNOVER
(mln passenger-kilometres)
Latvia has been a member of the
European Union and NATO since 2004
Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991
Latvia joined the Schengen zone in 2007
The financial crisis of 2007–2008
Latvia is a member of the Baltic Free Trade Area (1994–2004)
Latvia has been a member of WTO
since 1999
1.4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 88
PASSENGER TRAFFIC
(mln passengers)
Latvia has been a member of the
European Union and NATO since 2004
Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991
Latvia joined the Schengen zone in 2007
The financial crisis of 2007–2008
Latvia is a member of the Baltic Free Trade Area (1994–2004)
Latvia has been a member of WTO
since 1999
1.4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 99
Organization of the regional passenger transportation in Latvia
VIPUS VBTS
1.4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1010
The purpose of the research
Analysing and forecasting of passenger flows on the railway in Latvian regions using the regression analysis method.
2.1
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1111
The administrative division of Latvia2.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1212
Regional scheme of Latvian Railway2.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1313
Multiple regression model of passenger transportations in the regions and cities of Latvia in 2003
2.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 14
Research objectives
The objective is to investigate the model after the crisis approach in year 2007 and 2008 during the period of recession in Latvia.
2.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1515
Data source
• Nodarbinātības valsts aģentūras - http://www.nva.lv/
• Lursoft - http://www.lursoft.lv/
• Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia - http://www.csb.gov.lv/
• Pasažieru vilcienu biļešu pārdošanas sistēma - VIPUS
3.1
* Full list on website: bialive.org (“Statistics” category)
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 16
Tools
• Oracle MySQL Data Base
• MS Excel (PivotTable for cube building)
• StatSoft Statistica
3.1
Data
Analysis
Model Model calibration
& validation
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1717
Railway Passenger Turnover3.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1818
Railway Passenger Dynamic3.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 1919
The results of smoothening the data on passenger transportations in the regions and cities of Latvia from 2009-2011
3.2
Regional regression model
City regression model
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 20
The spread of the calculated data from the actual values in %
3.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 21
Regression modelRegion City All Old Description
-8986330 -6173380 3314530 81316 B- - -10543 16579 X1 - population density in region
9699079 - 78535 -608246 X2 - the number of enterprises per a unit of territory in region
-115735 -13931 -5047 39142 X3 - the number of enterprises per 1000 residents in region
1268586 - - -73812 X4 - density of the unemployed population in region
218495874 - - -25477000 X5 - the number of schools per a unit of territory region
-156813160 -1552254 -4100826 565904 X6 - the number of buses per a unit of territory in region
22273339 -2269575 - - X7 - the number of car per 1000 residents in region
- 34124 78340 - X8 - the number of car per a unit of territory in region
- 27073 -4174 -88572 X9 - the number of buses per 1000 residents in region
- 292253 - 24809 X10 - the number of railway stations in region
3.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 22
Regression model quality coefficients
Model Multiple R R² adjusted R²
Standard error of estimate
F No of cases
Region 0.8268 0.6836 0.6011 677766 8.23 30
All 0.9793 0.959 0.9525 948642 148.1647 45
City 0.9998 0.9995 0.9991 192638 2736.354 15
3.2
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 2323
Conclusion (1)According to regression models the conclusion has been done that these models can't be used in long-term perspective.The consequences are:
1. Changes of dynamics after crisis (pre-crisis models don't work any more)
2. Statistical data in Latvia is characterized by incompleteness and low reliability of basic data
3. Diverse systems are used for collecting and storage transport data in IS (data transformation and calibration is necessary)
4. Indistinct policy of the company and stochastic behavior of the passengers given on a turn
4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 24
Conclusion (2)
For improvement the quality of the developed regression models, the following is offered:
1. Inclusions of new variables in a model2. Increase in volume of data by reduction of a
time interval (quarter, month)3. Increase of data reliability 4. Bigger accumulation of data after crisis time (for
example, 5 years)5. A certain policy of the company in long-term
prospect on routes
4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 25
Next Step
The further direction of these researches is:
1. Regression model’s construction for bus regional passenger traffic
2. Researches of alternative methods of the multidimensional statistical analysis application possibility
3. Creation of accumulation system and collecting statistical data on passenger traffic
4
RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 2626
Contacts
Roman Gorky
Transport and Telecommunication Institute
Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia
E-mail: [email protected]
WEB: http://bialive.org