multi-party risk management for water resources project
TRANSCRIPT
Application of Multi-Party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process to local
water resources project management
Piriya Uraiwong
Professor Tsunemi Watanabe’s Laboratory
1 2012/2/14
2012/2/142
• Small-scale water resources project failure• Problem analysisBackground
• Develop systematic multi-party risk management process and project consensus building guidance for small-scale water resources project
Objectives
• Multi-party risk and uncertainty management
• Mental model and risk management
Conceptual Foundation
• Developing risk management process; stakeholder identification, risk assessment, risk response
Research Progress
• Risk response mental model• Field study in Thailand
Research Plan
2012/2/143
Background Research objectivesConceptual foundationProgress and resultsResearch plan
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Thailand water resources development
4
Thailand's past three decades of sustained and rapid economic development stimulated an explosive expansion of demand for water services
Resulting in many small medium and large-scale construction projectshttp://
www.google.com/
2012/2/14
Malfunction of medium and small scale projects
5
Problem statement
2012/2/14
Examples of ineffective small-scale water resources project in the Northeastern Thailand
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
6
Problem statement
17%
27%43%
7%
5%
Good Condition Minor re-constructionRehabilitation Re-constructionRejected
2012/2/14
Source: the Department of Water Resources Thailand, 2008
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Problem analysis
2012/2/147
Management problems
National level
Policy and plan
Legal framework
Budget
Institutional framework
Basin level
Stakeholder participation
Management mechanism
Sense of ownership
(Adapted from Sethaputra, 2001 and WWAP, 2006)
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Problem analysis
8
Failure Knowledge DatabaseCause
Actions
Results
Dr.Yotarou hatamura, 2005www.sozuku.com
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Problem analysis
2012/2/149
(Based on Hatamura, 2005)
ACTIONS Poor planning Hardware
production Maintenance/
Repair
Nonobservant of instruction
Inaction Ethics violation/
Rule violation Self-protection
RESULTSEconomic lossSocial lossChange in
perceptionFracture/
DamageExternal
Damage
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Problem analysis
2012/2/1410
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
CAUSESInsufficient
knowledgeDisregard of
procedureNarrow outlookInflexible
management structure
Poor staffsPoor authority
structurePoor strategy/
concept
ACTIONS Poor planning Hardware
production Maintenance/
Repair Nonobservant of instruction
Inaction Ethics violation/
Rule violation Self-protection
(Based on Hatamura, 2005)
Context of Problem
Water resources projects were inadequately meet stakeholder needs
Stakeholders may not communicate sufficiently and effectively
Stakeholders are lack of risk awareness No effective process in the decision-making
activities Problem is dynamic
2012/2/1411
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
2012/2/1412
Background Research objectivesConceptual foundationProgress and resultsResearch plan
Research questions
2012/2/1413
1. What are key aspects and limitations of current participation in decision-making process in small-scale water resources project?
2. Can Multi-party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process (MRUMP) be applied as a tool to improve stakeholder participation in decision making activities in small-scale water resources management in Thailand?
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Research hypothesis
2012/2/1414
“Implementation of Multi-party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process (MRUMP) as a tool for local communities participation in decision-making activity could decrease likelihood of small-scale water resources project failure in Thailand”
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Research objectives
15
1. Develop a systematic risk management process for better small-scale water resources project management
2. Develop a guidance for small-scale water resources project consensus building through multi-party risk and uncertainty management process
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Research framework
16
Problem analysis
Develop multi-party risk management
process
Developed process application
Data collection and analyze
Guidance development
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Conceptual phase
Empirical phase
2012/2/1417
Background Research objectivesConceptual foundationProgress and resultsResearch plan
Conceptual foundation
2012/2/1418
Water resources management in Thailand Water resources risk management Risk management process Risk perception and risk communication Mental model
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Reviews on Thai water resources project participation Strong push to small-scale water resources project
from engineer approach (Hirch) Lack of policy commitment to participation (MRCS) Involvement of water users and stakeholders in
decision-making process is poor (Lien, 2003) Participation process needs to begin with asking
what stakeholders need and designing the projects according to it (WWWP, 2007: Bjorge et. al., 2011)
Agencies carry operation plans year to year with little change and plans are subjected to change due to intense political lobbying (Sethapura et.al., 2003)
19 2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Participation form in Thai water resources projects
20
Participation
Public hearing
Passive participati
on
No sense of
ownership
Committee/ working
group
Basin /Sub-basin/ Project
Institutional
weakness
Dialogue
Ad-hoc
Ban Pa Kong
Local initiation
Support by governme
nt
Ping river basin
Mae Chaem
watershed
2012/2/14
Lack of consensu
s building
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
How to develop consensus building in small-scale water resources project?
2012/2/1421
Need to understand how stakeholders perceive the systems within which they live and function
Taking stakeholder mental model into account to build a shared understanding between involved stakeholders in the co-operative project management
(Biggs et.al., 2008)
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Mental Model and Decision Making
2012/2/1422
Real world data flow
Mental model
Information flow
Frame
Problem recognitio
n
Problem definitionSolution space
generation
Alternative
selection
Alternative analysis
Weighting benefit &
costChoice
Implementation
evaluation
(Adapted from Kolkman, M. J., 2005)
Multi-Party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process
23
(Pipattanawong and Watanabe, 2004)
Risk/uncertainty map
Hierarchy structure of risk and uncertainty
framework
Duration valuation process
Multi-party involvement management
process
MRUMP
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Constraints of MRUMP
24
1. Lack of stakeholder analysis 2. The assessors’ bias3. The duration valuation process (DVP) is
not applicable for local water resources project management.
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Suitable process is needed
2012/2/1425
Background Research objectivesConceptual foundationProgress and resultsResearch plan
Proposed Multi-party risk and uncertainty management process
2012/2/1426
Stakeholders and resources identification
Multi-party risk assessment
Multi-party risk response
Multi-party risk consensus
Implement
Communication
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Monitor, Evaluation, Modification
Stakeholders and resources identification
2012/2/1427
Input
Project information and statusRelated stakeholders
Tool and technique
Stakeholder and resource identification (Actor, Resource, Dynamic, Inter-action, and Law)
Output
Project related stakeholder and resource map
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Stakeholder and resource map from ARDIL method
28
Actor 1
Actor 2
Actor 3
Actor 4
Actor 5
Actor 6
Resource A/ project A
Resource B/ project B
Laws/ Policies
Social dynamic
Social dynamic
Economic dynamics
Ecological
dynamic
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Multi-Party risk assessment
2012/2/1429
Input
Project related stakeholder and resource mapStakeholder risk perception
Tool and technique
Hierarchical structure ofrisk Risk registerSemi-quantitative risk analysis
Output
HSRU mapRisk register matrix
Project life cycle risk breakdown structure
30
(Hillson, 2002)
Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Activity
Project risks
Planning phase
Management
External
technology
Construction phase
Management
External
technology
Operation and maintenance phase
Management
External
technology
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Hierarchy structure of risk and uncertainty
31
Risk perception
Risk cause event
Risk effect event
Source of risk/uncertainty
Consequence form risk/uncertainty
Activity Influenced risk/ uncertainty
Impact of risks/uncertainties
Cooperation form land-
owner
Land acquisition
Site accessibility
Project situation
Cause
s event
Eff
ect
even
t
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Risk register matrix
32
Risk #
Risk description
Risk cause event
Risk effect event
Risk impact
Related stakeholders
Output from HSRU tailored to project ARDIL
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Semi-quantitative Risk assessment
33
Useful in providing a structured way to rank risks according to their probability and impact represented by Probability-Impact (PI) matrix offers a visual results of identified risk
(Hillson, 2003)
2012/2/14
Remark : max of Ii,j will need to be concerned , for example, change of law/ policy
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Probability scoring
34
Ordinal scale: very low, low, medium, high, very high
Cardinal scale: 1, 2, 3 , 4, 5 Quantitative approach: 1% - 99%Verbal
descriptionCategory Level Probability
Occurs annually Very high 5 >0.1 , not 1
High probability of occurrence
High 4 0.1-0.01
Occasional occurrence
Medium 3 0.01-0.001
Possible phenomenon
Low 2 0.001-0.0001
Phenomenon has never been observed
Very low 1 <0.0001, not 02012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Impact scoring
35
5 4 3 2 1
Material losses
>1000 M- Euro
100 -1000 M-Euro
100,000- 1M-Euro
10,000 - 100,000 Euro
<10,000 Euro
Human lives
High loss of lives
serious injuries to numerous
numerous lightly injuries
Single small injuries
No injuries at all
Environmental consequences
Ecological breakdown
Ecosystem seriously disrupted
Damage to several species
Only a single species affected
Regeneration in days
Societal losses
Extensive evacuation
Basic infrastructures interrupted
Local problems
Difficulty in delivery to single households
Almost no consequences
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Probability-Impact matrix
36
HSRU
Pi,1 I-material
I-human
I-env I-socie ∑P*I Risk ranking
2012/2/14
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Update risk register matrix
37
Risk #
Risk description
Risk cause event
Risk effect event
Risk impact
Related stakeholders
Risk ranking
Output from HSRU ARDILP-I
matrix
2012/2/14
Numerical Result !!
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Proposed Multi-party risk and uncertainty management process
2012/2/1438
Stakeholders and resources identification
Multi-party risk assessment
Multi-party risk response
Multi-party risk consensus
Implement
Communication
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Monitor, Evaluation, Modification
RISK RANKING
Multi-Party risk response
2012/2/1439
Socio-culturalContext
Risk characteristics
Personal advantages
Individualcognition
Risk attitude
Riskperception
Riskacceptance
Riskbehavior
(Baan and Kliin, 2004)
Individual cognition of risks and risk behavior
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Risk response scenario
2012/2/1440
Evaluate and ranked risk
Accept Reduce likelihood
Reduce consequen
ceTransfer Avoid
How to deal with different risk perception and risk response among stakeholders?
Stakeholder A Stakeholder B
To be developed
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Stakeholder risk response mental model
2012/2/1441
Evaluate and
ranked risk input
Semi-structure interview
Risk response mental model
1st site visit: Project A
Initial Risk response mental model
2nd site visit: Project B
Evaluate and
ranked risk input
Semi-structure interview
Elicit, constructValidate/ improve
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Risk response mental model
Risk consensus
2012/2/1442
Necessary to develop a risk communication strategy that can obtain consensus among many stakeholders
Consensus communication is risk communication to inform and encourage groups to work together to reach a decision about how the risk will be managed (prevented or mitigated).Multi-party risk
response mental model
Risk communi-cation strategy
Risk consens
us
To be developed
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
2012/2/1443
Background Research objectivesConceptual foundationProgress and resultsResearch plan
Research plan
2012/2/1444
Item Task
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
1Finish MRUMP for small-scale water
resources project
2 Preparation for ethnographic study
2.1 contact local staff and
stakeholders
2.2 select case to conduct a field
study
3 Conduct a 1st fieldstudy
4 Conduct a 2nd field study
5 Refine the MRUMP
6 Preparation for thesis report
2012 2013
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Ethnographic study
2012/2/1445
Location : Thailand Project : 2 projects Methodology : ethnographic study (data
sources are supplemented by data collected through participant observation, interviews, documents and informal social contact); (Myers, 1999)
Background Research
objectives Conceptual
foundation Progress and
results Research plan
Published paper
2012/2/1446
Reviewed paper Piriya Uraiwong and Tsunemi Watanabe, “Stakeholder
analysis of water resources project in Thailand”, Social Society and Management System (SSMS) online journal, January 2012
Conference paper Piriya Uraiwong and Tsunemi Watanabe, “Community
mechanism for water resource risk management”, International conference for a sustainable greater Mekong sub region, Bangkok Thailand, 2010
Piriya Uraiwong and Tsunemi Watanabe, “Model for small-scale water resources project development: based on a Thai case”, 4th Thailand-Japan international academic conference, Tokyo Japan, 2011
2012/2/1447
Thank you