NASA PM CHALLENGEEXPLORE AND INSPIRE

Feb 9-10 2011Long Beach, California

Jerry MulenburgNASA Ames Research Center (Retired)

THE IMPORTANCE OF

DECISION MAKING IN PROJECTS

THE IMPORTANCE OF

DECISION MAKING IN PROJECTS

- Uncertainty – what you don’t know

- Complexity – the difficulty involved

- Ambiguity – too many choices

- People – the real challenge

Decision making is the single most important thing we do on projects!

Decision making is filled with problems related to:

THE IMPORTANCE OF

DECISION MAKING IN PROJECTS

Uncertainty- definition- risk of decision making (probability x impact) - urgency

Complexity- size - novelty- technology

Ambiguity- multiple pathways- many choices

People- personality- temperament- commitment

THE IMPORTANCE OF

DECISION MAKING IN PROJECTS

- Simple problems require reasoning

- Novel problems also require reasoning

- Difficult problems require more than reasoning and rarely have easy solutions

Good decisions come from short thoughts based on long experience

Research about how NASA project managers make decisions

Conscious vs unconscious subconscious

Head = logicHeart = emotionGut = feeling

HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS

HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS

Conscious vs Unconscious Subconscious Head = logic (thinking about thinking)

Rational thinkingInductiveDeductive

Thinking too much – over thinking about what you’re thinking

Heart - emotions Gut – feelings

HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS

Conscious vs unconscious subconscious

Head = logicHeart = emotion

- Window into the subconscious- Losses are more important than gains

- immediate gains overcome later, but greater, rewards

- Think about what you’re feeling- People who act rationally don’t have less emotion,

they just regulate it better- Mgmt may be so fearful of loss that they “over

constrain” projects at the beginningGut – feeling

HOW WE MAKE DECISIONS

Conscious vs unconscious subconscious

Head – logicHeart – emotion

Gut – feeling- feelings can be an accurate “shortcut”- thinking requires feeling- intuition

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS

We are unaware of how we make decisions, so how can we make better decisions?

Bad News - Being strictly rational can lead to bad decisions

Good News - Humans are not rational

So, how can we make better decisions?CRMTRIM

CRM (Crew Resource Management)

What? A Crew Management System making optimum use of all resources

Why? Focus on human error situationsto improve safety

When? In technical and situational complexity for the human decision-maker

Who? Anyone involved in situations with potentially disastrous outcomes

How? Provide increased situational awareness leading to better decisions

CRM – Crew Resource Management

What?A technique to avoid, trap, and/or mitigate the consequences of

errors resulting from poor decisions

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS WITH CRM

Why?Developed by NASA to aid flight crews in decision making to

improve air safetyHow?Improve relationships within aircrews about what best to do in critical situations

- Training, practice, guidance- Crew interaction

Recognizing that a problem existsDefining what the problem isIdentifying probable solutionsTaking appropriate action to implement a solution

Used throughout the airline industry and DoD with great results

QUESTION:

Does CRM have relevance for project management decision making?

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS WITH CRM

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

T alk to each other

R espect each other

I nitiate action

M onitor results

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

What?Based on team relationships

- Talking “with” not “to” each other- Respecting each other (tolerance, personality, temperament)- Understanding the effects of personal bias

- certainty- preconception- knowns and unknowns- risk tolerance

How?Through clear definition & understanding of the problem

- using information availability & accuracy- applying knowledge (explicit) & experience (tacit)

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

Method?Create positive relationships

Trust developed through honesty & integrityDevelop an approach

Identify a communication process (few rules)Talk with each otherRespect each otherInitiate actionMonitor results

Commitment to the decision (versus contribution)

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

What needs to be decided?- Symptom vs problem

Why does it need to be decided?- Project needs

How sensitive is it?- Organization & project impact

How urgent is it?- Timing impact/importance

Who’s decision is it?- Most knowledgeable/qualified

Options available- Decide- Delay- Ignore

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

What needs to be decided? Clearly identify the problem and probable root causes

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

Problem

Major probable causes

Probable contributing causes

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Why does it need to be decided?Project need / Importance

- Normal- Strong- Critical

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

How sensitive is it?Organizational impact

- Routine- Challenging- Critical

How urgent is it?Timing impact/importance

- Routine- Soon- Immediate

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

UI

S

C

IMPORTANCE

Sensitivity

Urgency

Complexity

Routine

Challenging

Critical

Normal

Strong

Critical Well understood

Medium

Highly

Soon

Immediate

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Who’s decision is it?Most knowledgeable/qualified to make itWithin the project:

Project ManagerTeam members - Expertise

- Knowledge- Experience

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

What options are available?Decide - Problem & solution finding (options)

- Impact analysis (on project)- Implementation scenario (pilot, partial, whole)

Delay - Gather information - Wait for further development

Ignore

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

Decision Making Checklist for Project Teams

What needs to be decided?Symptom vs problem

Why does it need to be decided?Project need

How sensitive is it?Impact to project & organization

How urgent is it?Timing impact/importance

Who’s decision is it?Most knowledgeable/qualified

Options available?Decide, delay, ignore

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

Decisions are affected by:

Relationships and personal bias- trust - honesty & integrity- preconceptions - certainty - knowns and unknowns - risk tolerance

Understanding of the problem - available information & accuracy - knowledge & experience

Involvement and commitment of- Project manager- Project team- Others

MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

TRIM – Team Resource Integration Management

Training Requirements for TRIM

- Communication- Human characteristics

personalitytemperamentbias

- Teamwork- Situational awareness- Problem finding & solving- Decision making

TRIM

What? A team management system making optimum use of resources

Why? Focus on improving team decision making

When? In technical and situational complex environments

Who? Anyone involved in situations with potentially harmful outcomes

How? Provide increased situational awareness leading to better decisions