Manaaki Taha Moana (MTM) Mediated Modelling of Taur anga Coastal Ecosystem Services : Systems Dynamics Model Description

Index

1.0 Background:

The Manaaki Taha Moana (MTM) research team is building a systems dynamics model (MTM Model) for Tauranga Harbour and its catchments. The model is being developed with stakeholders during and in between the MTM project workshops. This document is a recording the development of the MTM model along the process. The ultimate goal of the Manaaki Taha Moana project is to enhance and restore ecosystems of importance to Tauranga Moana (in that case study). Local iwi participants and Stakeholders of the harbour will provide a robust set of perspectives into the Mediated Modelling workshops, defining the social and cultural impacts of the degradation of the health of Tauranga Harbour and the life force it brings to tangata whenua. Only through understanding and cooperation between tangata whenua and all stakeholders in the Moana could this possibly be achieved. The tangata whenua participants, along with the MTM research team here in Tauranga welcome the opportunity to engage in the Mediated Modelling sessions as a platform to bring this to fruition.

1.1 Team Developing the Model: Mediated Modelling Team: Marjan Van den Belt, Derrylea Hardy, Aaron McCallion, Sarah Wairepo, Mark Berry, (other researchers who make a significant contribution to be added to this list for FINAL version of report). The contribution of the Workshop Participants in the building of the model is also acknowledged (add in details of who has provided data, who has assisted in collecting data). Systems Dynamics Modellers: Marjan Van den Belt, Aaron McCallion, Sarah Wairepo, Mark Berry 1.2 Model Questions:

The main question we want the model to answer. Preliminary answers from Workshop 1&2 are added.

1. What are the 3 factors that most threaten the health of the harbour?

The 3 big issues (symptoms) that seem to be emerging from the workshops are:

1) Sedimentation;

2) Eutrofication;

3) Loss of things such as kaimoana, habitat loss. The inherent processes/factors that are causing these issues are: 1) increased industrial/economic activity depleting ecosystems and their services; coastal development and urban pressures and associated pollution; system not “counting” ecosystem services.

2. What are the desired outcomes of a sustainable harbour with respect to economic, cultural, social, and environmental wellbeing?

Ecological (natural): Water in harbour that is same quality as at uppermost part of catchment, ie clear, drinkable, sustains life.

Social: Valued uses of harbour can still occur. Eg fishing; Mana-enhancing social systems reliant on the harbour, such as ability to collect kaimoana, are intact.

Cultural: Mauri of harbour is sustained?

Economic: The value of ecosystem services is accounted for in the economic system, with appropriate incentives and regulations, so that use of natural resources is sustainable and does not erode natural capital upon which the economy depends, thus enabling ongoing but sustainable “economic” activity in region.

3. What actions can produce the most positive overall outcomes, to address root causes of problems?

Heavy “users” of ecosystems, or groups/industries that benefit from ecosystem services provided by the harbour, should also contribute to the maintenance/restoration of those ecosystems. Eg through funds set up specifically for ecosystem services, via taxation or levies on ecosystem goods and services. System adapted via incentives/taxes to encourage individuals/groups to engage in restoration efforts, or limit unsustainable use of ecosystems.

4. What social values can we modify to effect solutions?

Better integration, so people see “whole picture” and how parts of the system influence each other – eg how economic/social/cultural activities impact on the environment, and vice versa. We want society to be conscious of the services they ARE getting from ecosystems, that they have value – so society will WANT to support them and ensure sustainable natural capital levels. Thus, people to better understanding the whole system, interactions between parts of the system, how economic/social activities impact on environment and how environment provides “services” to humans that are not necessarily “free” forever.

2.0 MTM Model Development: 2.1 Program Used – Stella: Download a trial version available on mtm.ac.nz to view the current model. Model available to view at: mtm.ac.nz/........ Mapping and Modelling:

• Icon-based graphical interface simplifies model building

• Stock and Flow diagrams support the common language of Systems Thinking and provide insight into how systems work

• Enhanced stock types enable discrete and continuous processes with support for queues, ovens, and enhanced conveyors

• Causal Loop Diagrams present overall causal relationships

• Model equations are automatically generated and made accessible beneath the model layer

• Built-in functions facilitate mathematical, statistical, and logical operations

• Arrays simply represent repeated model structure

• Modules support multi-level, hierarchical model structures that can serve as “building blocks” for model construction

Simulation and Analysis:

• Simulations "run" systems over time

• Sensitivity analysis reveals key leverage points and optimal conditions

• Partial model simulations focus analysis on specific sectors or modules of the model

• Results presented as graphs, tables, animations, QuickTime movies, and files

• Dynamic data import/export links to Microsoft® Excel

Communication:

• Flight simulators and dashboards describe model components and facilitate manipulation

• Input devices include knobs, sliders, switches, and buttons

• Output devices highlight outcomes with warning flashers, text, graphs, tables, and reports

• Storytelling supports step-by-step model unveiling

• Causal Loop Diagrams present dominant feedback loops within structure

• Sketchable graphs allow easy comparison of expected results with actual simulations

• Export for NetSim support publishing and sharing model over the web using isee NetSim add-on software

• Save as Runtime option creates full-screen, runtime models

• Multimedia support triggers graphics, movies, sounds, and text messages based on model conditions

2.2 Model Simulation Specifications:

• Temporal scale: Annual time step from 1950 to 2070 • Spatial scale: Tauranga Harbour and its catchments

2.3 Model Modules:

� Tauranga Harbour Catchment Population Pressures � Land Use � Ecosystem Values � Socio Economic � Recreational Value of Tauranga Harbour � Pollutant Loads on Tauranga Harbour � Actions Solutions and Agency Spend � Major External Factors � Tauranga Harbour Indicators � Water Dynamics of Tauranga Harbour and its Catchments

2.3.1 Population Pressures Module: This module simulates the population changes from 1950 till 2070. It includes the resident population and inbound tourists in the Tauranga Harbour catchment to calculate the effective population pressure, tourist numbers and the value of the Tourism to the region. The module also has the potential for a tax take from tourism a beneficiary of Tauranga Harbour eco system services that could be distributed to The population pressure is linked to the urban water demand in the water availability and use for Tauranga Harbour catchments module.

Data Inputs: Tauranga Harbour Catchment Population Visitor Numbers to Western Bay of Plenty 2009-2010 Data Sources:

• Tourism BOP website • Statistics NZ - Tauranga and western Bay of Plenty Population Statistics 1986-2006.

Data Calculations: Outputs: (graphical)

� Population projections using various growth rates � Tourism projections using various growth rates � Value of Tourism to Catchment region up to 2070 using Tourism number projections (Visitor

numbers, average stay, average value per day) � What a potential inbound tourist regional tax could bring to region for ecosystem restoration

using various rates.

2.3.2 Land Cover and Use Module:

This module simulates the predominant and projected land use and land cover changes from 1950 till 2070. It also shows the contribution of different land uses to the total sediment loads into the Tauranga Harbour. This module also estimates the total sediment trapping from mangroves and wetlands. The ‘total sediment’ will be linked with ‘sediment impact on shellfish’ from the ‘Ecosystem Services’ module, ‘recreation value of Tauranga Harbour’ module, and ‘Pollutant Loads’ from the ‘Total Pollutant Loads Tauranga Harbour Catchment’ module to simulate the possible impacts.

The amount or rate of sedimentation in Tauranga Harbour has increased over the years because of population growth, changing land use and soil disturbance related to development.

2.4ave number of days stayed

0.1growth rate of tourism

453,750.0History Tourism

400.0ave value per person per day

1.34312e+008Tourism Tax Recieved

145,243.0History population

Total Population+

Population change

Total Domestic and International

Visitors to Tauranga Harbour

History population

~History Tourism

~

Population Growth Rate

growth rate of tourism

incoming tourists

ave number of days stayedValue of Tourism toTauranga

Catchment region in NZD$

ave value per person per day

Tourism Tax per Person in NZD$

Tourism Tax Recieved

Tauranga Harbour Catchment Population Pressures

336,574TOTAL sedi…t in tonnes

Sea Grass in ha

wetland death

Indigenous Forest in ha

Introduced Forest in ha

Pasture in ha

Horticulture and Cropping in ha

Lif esty le Blocks and

Rural Subdiv isions in ha

Other Bare Earth in ha

Urban and Inf rastructure in ha

Rest of Tauranga

Harbour area in Haurban growth

bare earth growth

~

sediment loading f rom

indigenous f orest

~

sediment loading f rom

introduced f orest

sediment loading f rom

horticulture and cropping

sediment loading f rom pasture

sediment loading f rom

urban earthworks

sediment loading f rom urban

sediment loading f rom bare earth

total sediment f rom

indigenous f orest

total sediment f rom

introduced f orest

total sediment f rom

horticulture and cropping

total sediment f rom pasture

total sediment f rom

urban earthworks

total sediment f rom urban

total sediment f rom bare earth

TOTAL sediment in tonnes

Mangrov es in ha

mangrov e growth

mangrov e growth rate

~

mangrov es cutting

Seagrass death

sediment trapping f rom wetlands

Wetlands in ha

Mangrov e cutting ev ent

Seagrass death rate

sediment due to dam brake

black swans

ToxinsNutients runof f

Ozone impact

Storm activ ity

dam breaking

sea lettuce smothering

history seagrass

~

sediment impact

on seagrass index

~

total sediment reduced

f rom wetlands

History mangrov e growth in Ha

~

total sediment trapping

f rom mangrov es

Climate change

Decline of f rosty day s

~

2,102.1Mangrov es in ha

51.4mangrov e growth

691.0Wetlands in ha

1,318.8Sea Grass in ha

0.0Seagrass death rate

45,219.0Indigenous Forest in ha

14,665.0Introduced Forest in ha

4,888.0Horticultur…opping in ha

48,885.0Pasture in ha

533.0Lif esty le B…isions in ha

4,133.2Urban and …cture in ha

5,390.3Other Bare Earth in ha

0.0Seagrass death rate

Land Cov er & Use

Data Inputs:

- Main land use categories and their area in Ha since year as at 2008. - Need accurate trend data of land use changes since 1950 to 2008 - Projected/ expected growth rates of mangroves and the cutting event of mangroves. - Wetlands in Ha - Sediment trapping values of Mangroves and Wetlands - Sea Grass in Ha, factors affecting sea grass death rate (sea lettuce, storm, Black Swans,

toxins, nutrient runoff (feedback loop needed with pollutant loading of harbour module) , ozone impact, sediment impact on sea grass and pulse event of Ruahihi canal collapse in 1981.

- History of Sea grass & Mangroves.

Data Calculations:

Graphical Output: Changes in Land use overtime and effect on Sedimentation/Wetlands/Sea-grass and Mangroves

� Sedimentation in Tonnes 1950-2070 � Mangrove Growth � Wetland growth/Decline � Sea grass Growth Decline

Data Sources:

� Wildlands Kaimai Catchment Report (2010) � Bay of Plenty Maritime Wetlands Database Environmental Report 2000/21 � Tauranga Harbour Integrated Management Strategy 2006/7, Bay of Plenty regional council. � Environmental Report 2004/16 Aspects of Mangrove Distribution and Abundance in Tauranga

Harbour Stephen Parks, Bay of Plenty regional council

2.3.3 Ecosystem Services Module:

This module simulates the services that ecosystems provide humans and the impact of sedimentation, Toxins, Pollutants and Dredging on these ecosystems. One way of doing this, is to place a monetary value on the 'services' that 'ecosystems' provide humans. Seagrass, for example, provides a number of ecosystem services including trapping and stabilizing sediments, nutrient recycling, creation of high primary productivity and the provision of habitat for animal and plant species. By placing a monetary value on these ecosystem services, their value becomes 'visible' and decision makers can appreciate their true worth. A further monetary valuation can be put on the food resource of commonly gathered species of Tauranga harbour. The annual harvested values of these species could be measured and the impact of food resource loss via dredging, toxins, shellfish bans and other impacts could be measured over the Scenario period (1950-2070).

Mangroves in ha

Wetlands in ha

Sea Grass in ha

Rest of Tauranga Harbour area in Ha

Indigenous Forest in ha

TuaTua

Total mangrov e Value

Tauranga Harbour in $USD

TuaTua Value ea

Scallops

Flounder

White Bait

Snapper

dredging impact of shelf ish

~

Ecosy stem v alue of Tauranga harbour catchment

Health Warnings and Bans

cockles birth death rates

maori shelf ish oral history

~

dredging in cub meters f or super ships

Mangrov e av e Value Per Ha Per Annum

sediment impact on shelf ish

Pipi

Wetland av e Value

Per Ha Per Annum

Total Wetland Value Tauranga Harbour in $USD

Pipi Value ea

indigenous f orest av e

Value Per Ha Per annum

total indigenous f orest Tauranga Harbour Catchment in U$SD

Sea Grass av e v alue Per Ha Per Annum

total sea grass av e v alue per Ha Per Annum

Rest of Harbour av v alueTotal Value of rest of

tauranga Harbur Estaury

NZD V USD

Eco sy stem Value of tauranga Harbour in NZD

Pipi gathered

Pipi Biomass Value

Pipi Growth rate

~

Annual Food Value Pipi

Oy ster

Oy ster Value ea

Oy sters gathered

Oy ster Biomass Value

TuaTua gathered ea

Tua Tua Biomass Value

TuaTua Growth rate

~Annual Food ValueTuaTua

Scallops Value ea

Scallops gathered ea

Flounders Value ea in $

Flounder gathered ea

Whitebait Value ea in $

whitebait gathered ea

Snapper Value ea in $

Snapper gathered ea

Snapper Biomass Value

Whitebait Biomass Value

Flounders Biomass Value

Scallops Biomass Value

Cockles

Oy ster Growth rate

~

Cockles Value ea

Cockles gathered

TuaTua Birth Death rates

Scallops Growth rate

~

Flounder Growth rate

~

Whitebait Growth rate

~

manintenance dredging

in harbor and out harbor

Snapper Growth rate

~Annual Food Value Snapper

birthdeath rates

Annual Food Value Whitebait

whitebait birthdeath rates

EELSEELs Value ea in $

EELs gathered ea

EELs Biomass Value

EELs Growth rate

~Annual Food Value EELS

EELs birthdeath rates

Annual Food Value Flounder

Flounder birthdeath rates

Annual Food Value Scallops

Scallops birthdeath rates

Total Value of Food Biomass Commonly Gathered Species in $

Total Annual Value of commonly

Gathered species in $l

Greenlipped MusselGreenlipped Value Ea

Greenlipped Mussel gathered

Greenlipped mussel Biomass Value

Greenlipped Mussel Growth rate

~

Annual Food Value Greenlipped Mussel

Greenlipped Mussel

birth death rates

Annual Food Value Oy ster

Oy ster birth death rate

Cockles Biomass Value

Cockles Growth rate

~

Annual Food Value Cockles

Pip birth death rates

Eco Sy stem Serv ices

Data Inputs: Any relevant information/data associated with the following:

• Sediment Impacts on Shellfish • Dredging Impacts on Shellfish • Biomass and Land catch data of commonly harvested for food species in Tauranga harbour -

Whitebait, Oysters, Eels, Snapper, Tuata, Pipi, Cockle, Green lipped Mussel, Scallops, Flounder.

• Fish Species • Values of Ecosystem services in USD$ • Mangrove, Wetland, Sea grass, Indigenous forest area in Ha

To be included:

• Bird Species • Forest Health Factors • Bio security risks • Health and feedback loops to pollutant loading of harbour

Data needs: - Estimates of Native and Non-Native fish population in the Tauranga Harbour.

o Annual growth rate o Annual harvest rate

- Estimates of Native and Non-Native birds population - Estimates of Customary and Recreational Food Gathering - Forest Health data - Pest eradication program data

Data Calculations: Outputs: (graphical)

Ecosystem valuations

Biomass valuation

Harvested valuations overtime

Data Sources:

• Costanza, R., d'Arge, R., de Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeems, S., O'Neill, R.V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R.G., Sutton, P., van den Belt (1997). The Value of the World's Ecosystem Service and Natural Capital. Nature 387: 253-260.

• Environment Bay of Plenty. 2010. Mangroves. Tauranga Harbour Fact Sheet 3. Environment Bay of Plenty, Whakatane.

• National Institute of Water and Atmosphere. 2010. Comparing Seagrass Meadows across New Zealand. NIWA, Wellington.

• Statistics New Zealand Website

2.3.4 Socio-Economic Module:

Data Needs: • Standard of living data • Employment Data – Number of jobs, unemployment rate.... • Mining was mentioned • Cost of unemployment • Cost of crime • Bio-security risk – Pest species.... • Ships and ballast • Global/National Economy • Interest rates • Inflation

Port of Tauranga tonnage

hist tonnage

~

medium income tauranga

Employ ment

export tonnes growth

gini coef f icient

measure of equity

multiplier ef f ect of port activ ities to Tauranga

Job growth rate

Medium income Growth

Households 2001

NZD V USD 2

Permits issued f or New Houses

Global Economy

Labour Force

Labour f orce growth

Local GDPInf lation

houses under construction

av erage annually

interest rates

National EconomyPrice of Oil in USD

Personal consumption in $ per y ear

Tauranga Harbour Catchment

weighted personal

consumption per person

personal consumption

per person in $

unemploy ment rate

Crime

Cost of Crime Cost of Unemploy ment

port activ ities

div idends

growth port inf rastructure

RC pay ments f or ES

Other stakeholders

reconnect f ood supply with

international markets to reinv est ES

National Gov ernment

SOCIO ECONOMIC

2.3.5 Recreation Value of Tauranga Harbour Module: This module simulates the recreational value of Tauranga Harbour.

The recreational opportunities available on and around the harbour are a significant attraction for people to live and visit the Bay of Plenty region. The quality of the physical environment and leisure/recreation opportunities are some of the main reasons why people move to this area.

Data Needs: Any relevant information/data associated with the following: • Harbour Margins • Navigation safety • Boating Facilities • Nutrient Loads • Water Quality • Sea Lettuce in Tonnes • Recreational Fishing • Environmental Food Resource Indicator

Data Sources:

• Recreational Strategy Tauranga Harbour, 2009, EBOP

2.3.6 Urban Wastewater Loads: This module estimates the pollutants loads from all urban waste water discharges.

There are a number of urban wastewater treatment plants which discharge in to the harbour. As expected, they will have different amounts of loadings both in terms of quantity and concentrations of pollutants.

Data Needs: - List of all major pollutants to be considered from urban wastewater discharges

Food resource index

RV of tauranga Harbour indexHarbour Access weighting

sea lettuce in tonnes

Facility WeightingNav igation weighting

Nav igation Saf etyboating Facilities

env ironmental weighting

Eco system Value of tauranga Harbour in NZD

ramps moorings

Marinas

bathing quality

Boat Numbers 2001

Recreation Value of Tauranga Harbour

Parking free

- All urban discharge consents and their loading rates of identified pollutants: Quantity discharges (e.g. cubic m per day or year) and concentrations of different pollutants (g per cubic m)

Calculations Needs: - Aggregate the urban wastewater discharges and loadings (total quantity with weight average

concentrations) per pollutant

Module Developments: - Further develop the module according to the identified pollutants in urban wastewater

discharges - Populate the module with collected and estimated town wastewater discharges data

• Port of Tauranga. 2009. Port of Tauranga Financial Information. Annual Report 2009. Prepared by KPMG on Behalf of the Auditor General of New Zealand. http://port-tauranga.co.nz/Investors/Financial-Information.

2.3.7 Industrial Wastewater Loads: This module estimates the pollutants loads from all industrial wastewater discharges. There are a number of industrial wastewater discharges into the harbour. As expected, they will have different amounts of discharges and pollutant loadings both in terms of quantity and concentrations. Data Needs:

- List of all major pollutants to be considered from Industrial wastewater discharges

- All Industrial discharge consents and their loading rates of identified pollutants: Quantity discharges (e.g. cubic m per day or year) and concentrations of different pollutants (g per cubic m)

Calculations Needs: - Aggregate the industrial discharges and loadings (total quantity with weight average

concentrations) per pollutant

Module Developments: - Further develop the module according to the identified pollutants in industrial wastewater

discharges - Populate the module with collected and estimated industrial wastewater discharges data

Urban water use in MM3 per y ear

Total Urban WW discharge v olume in MM3 per y ear

Waster water f actor

returned to sy stem

WW discharges

improv ed urban WW

management tertiary

Urban WW Nitrogen concentration

Urban WW Phospherous

concentration in gram per M3

Urban WW Ecoli concentration in MPN per 100ml

Urban Toxins concentration

in gram per M3

Total urban WW N in MM3

urban WW N load in MM3 per y ear

Total urban WW P in MM3

Urban WW total P

load in MM3 per y earTotal urban WW Ecoli Load in MM3 per y ear

urban WW Ecoli load MPN per y ear

Total urban WW Toxins

concentration in MM3

urban WW toxins load in MM3 per y ear

Urban Wastewater Loads MM3 per y r

Concentration or Total MM3

2.3.8 Urban Stormwater Loads: This module will estimate the pollutants loads from stormwater from urban areas. Data Needs:

- List of all major pollutants to be considered from Stormwater - Stormwater consents - investment

Calculations Needs:

- Aggregate the stormwater discharges and loadings (total quantity with weight average concentrations) per pollutant

Module Developments: - Further develop the module according to the identified pollutants in stormwater discharges - Populate the module with collected and estimated stormwater discharges data

Total industrial WW discharge

v olume in MM3 per y ear 3

Annual Change in urban WW discharges in MM3

industrial Toxins

concentration in gram per M3

Total industrial WW N Load in MM3

industrial WW N load in tonnes per y ear 3

?

Total industrial WW

P load in MM3

industrial WW total P load in MM3

?

Total industrial WW Ecoli

Load in MM3 per y ear

industrial WW Ecoli load MPN per y ear

?

Total industrial WW Toxins concentration in gram per M3 per y ear

industrial WW toxins load in tonnes per y ear

Industrial Wastewater Loads MM3 per y r

Concentration or Total MM3

2.3.9 Pastural Farming Loads Module: This module estimates the pollutants loads from Pastural farming sector. The approach of ‘cows per ha’ would allow us to simulate the impact of dairy intensification (increasing stock per ha) as well as increase in dairy farming in hectares. If there are proposed changes, it would require determining what proposed changes mean, i.e. % reduction in different pollutant loadings rates from % of dairy farming area! Data Needs:

- List of all major pollutants to be considered from Pastural farming sector

- Identified pollutant loading rates, in e.g. kg N per cow per year (these loading rates should consider the attenuation coefficients!)

Calculations Needs: - How to calculate E-coli concentrations and loads!

Module Developments:

- Further develop the module according to the identified pollutants from the Pastural farming sector

- Populate the module with collected and estimated Pastural farming data

Annual Av Rainf all in mm

inv estment

HIST RAIN

~

urban and infrastructure ha

Total sormwater Organic Loading in TonneTotal organic material in tonne

organic loading in tonne

Organic material loading per Ha

toxin loading per Hastormwater consents

total sediment from urban

improv ed SW management

Total urban stormwater toxin Loading in Tonne

organic loading in tonne 2

Total urban SW Ecoli Load

in gram per M3 per y ear

SW Ecoli load MPN per y ear

Urban Stormwater

Concentration or Total MM3

2.3.10 Horticulture and Cropping Loads: This module estimates the pollutants loads from Horticulture and Cropping farming sector. Data Needs:

- List of all major pollutants to be considered from Horticulture and Cropping farming sector

- Identified pollutant loading rates, in e.g. kg N per ha per year (these loading rates should consider the attenuation coefficients!)

Module Developments:

- Further develop the module according to the identified pollutants from the Horticulture and Cropping farming sector

- Populate the module with collected and estimated Cropping farming data

Pasture in ha

cows per hectare

Pastural N load rate in Kg per cow per y ear

Pastural P load rate in Kg per cow per y ear 2

Pastural E Coli load rate in Kg per cow per y ear 3

total sediment of

pasture in tonne

Total Pastural N load in MM3

Total Pastural P load in MM3

Total Pastural E Coli load in Tonnes

Pastoral N load in tonnes per y ear

Pastoral P load in tonnes per y ear

Pastoral E Coli in tonnes per y ear

Pastural f arming Loads

2.3.11 Total Pollutants Loads: This module adds up all the pollutants estimated from all point and non-point sources.

horticulture and cropping in ha

HorticulturalN load rate in Kg per Ha per y ear 2

Horticultural P load rate in Kg per Ha per y ear 3

total sediment of pasture in tonne

Total horticulture and

cropping N load in MM3

Total horticultural and cropping P load in MM3

Horticulturall N load in tonnes per y ear 2

Horticulture P load in tonnes per y ear 2

Horticulture and Cropping Loads

Total horticultural and cropping P load in MM3

Total horticulture and

cropping N load in MM3

Total Pastural E Coli load in Tonnes

Total Pastural P load in MM3

Total Pastural N load in MM3

Total sormwater Organic Loading in Tonne

sea lettuce in tonnes

Total industrial WW Toxins concentration in gram per M3 per year

Total urban SW Ecoli Load

in gram per M3 per year

total N loading in MM3

total P Loading Tauranga harbour Catchment

Total urban WW Ecoli Load in MM3 per year

Total industrial WW Ecoli

Load in MM3 per year

Total Ecoli Loadi in MM3

Total industrial WW N Load in MM3

Total industrial WW P load in MM3

Total urban WW N in MM3Total urban WW P in MM3

Total urban WW Toxins

concentration in MM3

total toxin loading Tauranga

Harbour catchment

Total urban stormwater toxin Loading in Tonne

TOTAL sediment in tonnes

Pollutant Loads Tauranga Harbour catchment

Critical Factor:Low Flow conditions and concentration Vs Tonne V Volume

2.3.12 Actions, Solutions and Agency Spend Module:

Data Needs: - Identify the major actions already underway in the Tauranga Harbour and its catchments;

and collect their details (what, where, when, and what are the monitored or expected impacts!)

- Identify the major proposed actions in the Tauranga Harbour and its catchments; and estimate their details (what, where, when, and what are their expected impacts!)

Module Developments: - Populate the module with the collected and estimated data - Further develop the module according to the identified actions to be simulated.

2.3.13 Indicators: This module simulates the measures that reflect or indicate the state of the health of Tauranga Harbour and its catchments.

What are the indicators that there is a problem? e.g. wading bird habitat – loss of bird life is an indication of a problem somewhere else in the system.

incentiv es

regulations

education

pest control

R&D

Regional Lev el Forums

solutions

indigenous plantation

restoring wetlands

riparian v egetation

Future Initiativ es

History Mgt initiativ es in Tga Harbour Agencies

Total Agency Spend in Tauranga harbour catchment in $

Historical spend by agencies

~

Actions,Solutions and Agency Spend

2.3.14 Major External Factors Climatic Events - The effects of climate on vegetation and habitats across the project area results from a complex set of interactions with altitude, vegetation and land use, distance from the coast, and landforms and soils.

� Drought events in the early and middle parts of the 20th Century triggered widespread dieback of indigenous vegetation in ‘cloud forest‘, and these effects are still very evident along the highest ridges today. This has resulted in the ―scruffy vegetation that is present in these areas.

Soil lossBio div ersity Index

Annual Population pressures

Land degragation

Harbour Margin access in KM

Economic sustainability IndexTotal annual v alue

business and industry in $

total value tourism in $

~

Local GDP

Health

Ecosystem value of

Tauranga harbour catchment

Cost of Crime Cost of Unemployment

weighted personal

consumption per person

Total Water Demand

TOTAL sediment in tonnes

RV of tauranga Harbour index bathing quality

Protected land area

TW

Total Ecoli Loadi in MM3total N loading in MM3 total P Loading Tauranga

harbour Catchmenttotal toxin loading Tauranga

Harbour catchment

Households 2001

Eco system Value of

tauranga Harbour in NZD Food resource index

Tauranga Harbour Indicators

Resource Use

Economic Indicators

Ecoystem services indicators

Socio-Demographics

Recreation Value of tauranga Harbour

Pollutant Load

3.0 Reports to Date

• Assessment of Environmental Effects for Port of Tauranga Channel Deepening & Widening. (2009)

• 9912 - Changes in abundance of Seagrass in Sth Tauranga Harbour (EBOP 1999) • 9930 - Change in abundance of Seagrass in Tauranga Harbour from 1959 - 1996 • State of the Environment Assessment for the Catchments of the Kaimai Range & Northern

Mamaku Plateau (Feb 2010) • Tauranga Harbour Integrated Management Strategy - Lawrie 2006 • The New Zealand Mangrove: review of the current state of knowledge - Morrisey 2007 • Aspects of Mangrove Distribution & abundance in Tauranga Harbour - Park 2004 • Expansion Dynamics of Monospecific, Temperate Mangroves and Sedimentation in 2

Embayments of a Barrier-Enclosed Lagoon, Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand - Stokes 2010 • Hydrological & Ecological Baseline Study of the Wetland South East of Kuka Road (Wildland

Nov 2009) • Environmental Assessment of the Wider Te Puna and Waipapa Catchments, Western Bay of

Plenty (Wildland Sept 2009) • MiscReport-091119-MicrobiologicalQualityofShellfishinEstuarineareas • Report-0411-ComplianceReportForVegetationRemovalAndLandClearance • Report-0608-WastewaterTreatmentSystemComplianceRpt • Report-0711-SeaLettuceMonitoringInTheTaurangaHarbour • Report-070500-WaterUseandAvailabilityAssessmentfortheWesternBayofPlenty • Report-091015-BOPAMABiologicalSurvey • Report-091221-WaterQualityBOPRivers89to08 • Strategy-090528-StormwaterStrategyForTheBayOfPlentyRegion

climatic ev entsballast and turbity by ships bio security risk Ship running Aground Tsunami or Earthquake

Major External Factors