MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues

DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop

25 July 2006

Plan for the workshop

Updates on MTEF projections, Joint Program doc, Paris survey Suggested issues for joint program

Roundtable : DP presentations on projections

Outputs (to be discussed with GOT, CSO) Next steps for MTEF projections (a) for joint

programming (b) for 07/08 budget cycle Agreed issues/approach for programming within joint

doc

MTEF DP projections so far……. 14 agencies + collective UN projections

received so far Analysis below based on data received 5pm

yesterday Analysis focussed on aggregate projection

issues highlighted in earlier DP discussion, (need to capture planned disbursements, not just existing commitments)

Other analysis to follow, guided by today’s discussion

DPs Support (2006/07=100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB

DfID Finland Switzerland UN Japan Canada Germany

Budget Support (2006/07=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB

DfID Finland Switzerland UN Japan Canada Germany

DPs Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB

DfID Finland Switzerland UN Japan Canada Germany

Budget Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB

DfID Finland Switzerland Japan Canada Germany

Total DPs Suppor t (% of GDP)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Total

Budget Support (% of GDP)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Total

Total External Financing, actaul + projections

Donor Support

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

% o

f G

DP

Actual Donor Support MTEF Projection 06 MTEF Projection 05

MTEF Projection 04 MTEF Projection 03

Total External Financing, actual + projections

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

% o

f G

DP

Actual Donor Support MTEF Projection 07 MTEF Projection 06

MTEF Projection 05 MTEF Projection 04 MTEF Projection 03

Issues for the joint program document : criteria Adding value to individual agency plans

(clarifying overall context, adjusting collective strategy, adding collective commitments)

Useful contribution achievable in time horizon for program doc

Useful for strengthening national planning and budget process, not just one off exercise to meet agency program doc requirements

Preliminary suggestions

Looking at key aggregates Aid absorption/scaling up Alignment with MKUKUTA Alignment with JAS Evolution of budget support

Aggregate financing

Profile of key aggregates : budget support, sector financing, total public, non state

Reliability : inclusion of commitments and plans. can projections be recommended by agencies and DPG overall as sound base for GOT planning?

Can the aggregates be made more reliable than the components ? Collective DPG commitment to review shortfalls,

Aid absorption/scaling up

At first glance, projections suggest focus may need to be on issues of scaling down !

Given recent history on external financing projections, should at least explore scenario of continued increase, and potential absorption issues at macro and sector level

Alignment with MKUKUTA

Analysis by sector (distribute sector projections for sector group comment?)

Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg alignment with requirements on financing growth agenda, major infrastructure, transport sector plan, etc

Alignment with JAS

Paris Declaration survey tells us where we are now on implementing JAS principles

MTEF projections can tell us where we will be up to 2010, based on existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any others?) - preliminary target for JAS implementation, basis for dialogue

Few DPs have responded on specific indicators but should be fairly easy on basis of projections

Budget support in the MTEF

Proportion of budget support appears to be rising (as % GDP, declining less rapidly than total external financing)

Looking for changes in expenditure/financing patterns consistent with continued budget support eg budget financing of core reform, additional domestic capital expenditure