m.sc. in engineering policy and management of technology

Energy Management and Policy

02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends

M.Sc. in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology

The Energy SystemCurrent Situation and Market Trends

PART I

Prof. Manuel Heitor

[email protected]

Maria João Rodrigues Pinto

[email protected]



CLASS OUTLINE

@ Course presentation

@ Students presentation

@ Key elements and concepts of the energy system. Energy Supply. Energy demand. Energy consumption by sector.

PART I 09h00-10h30

PART II 11h00-13h00

BREAK: 10h30-11h00



STUDENTS PRESENTATION

What’s your understanding of energy management? And energy policy?

What’s your understanding of the course curriculum?

What’s your interest and expections about the course?

What’s your professional background?

What’s the main theme of your dissertation?



Name: Alexandre Mateus

Academic Background: Engª Informática e de Computadores @IST




Carlos Neves

Engª Mecânica @ISEL


Name:

Academic Background:



APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS

Inês Azevedo

Engª do Ambiente @IST

Name:





Miguel Fernandes

Economia @Lusófona

Name:





Rui Carvalho

Engª Mecânica @IPL

Name:





Sara Levy

Engª Ambiente @IST

Name:





Susana Beira

Medicina Veterinária @FMV

Name:





Tânia Torre

Engenharia Ambiente @IPS

Name:





Tiago Oliveira

Energy and Industrial Production Engineering @UE

Name:





Miguel Carvalho

Engª Informática e Computadores @IST

Micro-Geração com Pilhas de Combustível

Name:


Dissertation:




Ana Oliveira

Engª Ambiente @UA

The Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts of Photovoltaic Very-Large Scale Applications - The Case of Amareleja Facility

Name:


Dissertation:




Vanessa Figueiredo

Química Tecnológica @FCUL

The Role of Architects in the Diffusion of Photovoltaic Solar Technology

Name:


Dissertation:



APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA

OBJECTIVOS

Desenvolver competências para a compreensão e análise crítica de políticas energéticas

Sensibilizar para as dimensões de sustentabilidade energética

Desenvolver competências para a compreensão das questões associadas às políticas públicas energéticas e de gestão de energia de diferentes perspectivas institucionais




PROGRAMA

Class #0 • Students presentation• Course presentation

• Key elements and concepts of the energy system• Energy supply• Energy demand• Energy consumption by sector

02/10/2004

Class #1

09/10/2004

• Energy Balances• Energy prices• Energy, economy and environment: key relationships and indicators

• PAPER DISCUSSIONOECD/IEA (2004), Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy




PROGRAMA

Class #2 • The driving forces of energy policy• Energy policy objectives• Principles of energy policy design and evaluation

• INVITED SPEAKERAntónio Castro, EDP Energy Market Restructuring: Merging the electricity and natural gas businesses

• PREPARATORY PAPERToh, Kyung-hwan (2003), The impact of convergence of the Gas and Electricity Industries: Trends and Policy Implications, Working Paper, IEA

16/10/2004

Class #3 • Energy policy strategies and instruments

• PAPER DISCUSSIONEEA (2004), Energy Subsidies in the European Union – A brief Overview, EEA Technical Report 1/2004

23/10/2004




PROGRAMA

Class #4

30/10/2004

• Energy efficiency, rational use of energy and demand-side management strategies. • Overview of end-user sector energy policies.

• INVITED SPEAKERS Helder Gonçalves, INETI The Portuguese and the European Framework of Energy Policy for the Buildings Sector

Miguel Arruda, Miguel Arruda Arquitectos Associados The impact of Energy Regulation in Architectural Design of Buildings

• PREPARATORY PAPEROfficial Journal of the European Communities L1/65, 04.01.2003, Directive 2002/91/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2002Concerning the energy performance of buildings




PROGRAMA

Class #5

06/11/2004

• Detailed analysis of environmental indicators• The Kyoto Protocol and the Flexible Mechanisms. • The IPPC Directive. • Interaction between, and interoperation of, policy instruments.

• PAPER DISCUSSIONOECD/IEA (2001), Energy Indicators and Sustainable Development, presented at COP7 meeting, 29 October–9 November, Marrakesh




PROGRAMA

Class #6 • Overview of supply-side energy policies • Renewable energy policies – past, present and prospects in a liberalised market context

• INVITED SPEAKERNuno Ribeiro da Silva, SOMAGUE The Wind Power Market in Portugal – Current Situation and Development Trends

• PREPARATORY PAPERKamp, L., Smits, R., Andriesse, C., Notions of Learning Applied to Wind Turbine Development in the Netherlands and Denmark, Energy Policy 32 (2004) 1625-1637

13/11/2004




PROGRAMA

Class #7 • The importance of energy R&D in shaping energy policies • Energy technologies, technological paths and learning curves • Selected world energy R&D Programmes • Energy R&D expenditure

• Entrepreneurship in energy markets: Presentation of the Energy Challenge Initiative by Maria José Francisco, IST/IN+.

• PAPER DISCUSSIONScience (2004), Toward a Hydrogen Economy, Special Section, Science vol. 305, August 2004

22/11/2003




PROGRAMA

Class #8

27/11/2004

• Key issues and drivers of energy markets liberalisation • Regulation v.s. de-regulation • Energy market structure and organisation in the liberalised context • Energy market liberalisation and long-term security of supply

• INVITED SPEAKER Anibal Santos, REN Energy market liberalisation and economic regulation

• PREPARATORY PAPEROfficial Journal of the European Union L176/37, 15.07.2003, Directive 2003/54/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2003Concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and repealing Directive 96/92/EC




PROGRAMA

Class #9

04/12/2004

WORKSHOP

The Future of the Energy System



APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINAAVALIAÇÃO

Paper critical review 25% Final Grade GE

Take-home Exam 50% Final Grade IE

Class Participation 25% Final Grade IE




AVALIAÇÃO

TOPICAL PAPERS

CLASS PARTICIPATION 25% Final Grade

• 4 students groups • 1 paper presentation at random (1/2 hour; no slides needed)• 1 discussant at random (1/2 hour; do I need further readings?)• group discussion (I will not be sleeping on Saturday morning!)

PREPARATORY PAPERS

• Prepare at least one question for the invited speaker




AVALIAÇÃO

Group work

PAPER CRITICAL REVIEW 25% Final Grade

Choose one paper among topical and preparatory (no repetition allowed)

Maximum number of pages: 20

Language: EN or PT

Review the paper including other perspectives

Due in class # 9




AVALIAÇÃO

Date to be anounced

TAKE-HOME EXAM 50% Final Grade

Hand-out on Friday, due on Monday

If there are doubts, there may be an oral exam



KEY ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTS OF THE ENERGY

SYSTEM

Energy supply

Power plantsHeat plantsGas supplyOil supply

...

End-Use Energy

Heating OilGasoline

ElectricityNatural Gas

...

Energy ServiceDemand

Car-kmMotive Power

LightIndoor Heat

...

Fuel Mix

Supply Conversion Efficiency

Fuel Mix

EnergyIntensity

ENERGY SYSTEM

“UTILITY”

Governmental Intervention



ENERGY SUPPLY

Data Source: DGE, 2003

2000 Fuel Shares of Portuguese TPES

Geothermal and Wind Electricity

0,1% Hydroelectricity3,9%

Electricity Trade0,3%

Comb. Renewables &

Wastes10,6%

NG9,2%

Oil60,9%

Coal14,9%

TPES = 25,55 Mtoe

Evolution from 1990 to 2000 of Portuguese Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Oil Coal NG Electricity Trade Comb. Renewables & Wastes Hydroelectricity

Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Crude Oil

OECD Countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States

Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Crude Oil

Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Crude Oil Reserves

Source:BP, 2003

109 barrels = 136 Mt

R/P2002 = 40,6

R/Pi: Number of years the remaining (proved) oil reserves would last if production remained at same level of year i of analysis



ENERGY SUPPLY

Crude Oil Trade Movements

Source: BP, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Natural Gas


Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Natural Gas

Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Natural Gas

Source:BP, 2003

R/P2002 = 60,7

R/Pi: Number of years the remaining (proved) natural gas reserves would last if production remained at same level of year i of analysis



ENERGY SUPPLY

Natural Gas Trade Movements

Source: BP, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Hard Coal


Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Hard Coal

Source: IEA, 2003



ENERGY SUPPLY

Hard Coal

Source:BP, 2003

R/P2002 = 204

R/Pi: Number of years the remaining (proved) coal reserves would last if production remained at same level of year i of analysis



END-USE ENERGY

Source: IEA, 2003

Evolution from 1990 to 2000 of Portuguese Total Final Consumption by Fuel (Mtoe)

0

24

68

10

1214

1618

20

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Oil Coal NG Electricity Others

2000 Fuel Shares of Portuguese TFC

Coal2,8%

Oil59,0%NG

5,1%

Electricity18,1%

Others15,0%

TFC = 18,28 Mtoe




Source: IEA, 2003

?

?

END-USE ENERGY

Electricity Fuel Mix



ENERGY DEMAND

Source: IEA, 2003

Oil

Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Oil Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Industry Transports Other Non- energy use

2001 Shares of Portuguese Oil Consumption

Industry16%

Transports58%

Non- energy use8%

Other18%

TFCoil = 11,35 Mtoe




ENERGY DEMAND

Natural Gas

Source: IEA, 2003

Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Natural Gas Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Industry Transports Other

2001 Shares of Portuguese Natural Gas Consumption

Industry82%

Transports0%

Other18%

TFCNG = 1,21 Mtoe




ENERGY DEMAND

Coal

Source: IEA, 2003Data Source: DGE, 2003

Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Oil Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001


2001 Shares of Portuguese Coal Consumption

Industry100%

TFCcoal = 0,23 Mtoe



ENERGY DEMAND

Electricity

Source: IEA, 2003

Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Electricity Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)

0

1

2

3

4

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001


2001 Shares of Portuguese Electricity Consumption

Industry39%

Transports1%

Other60%

TFCElectricity = 3,44 Mtoe




REFERENCES & FURTHER READING

• IEA (2000), The IEA Energy Indicators Effort – Increasing the Understanding of the Energy/Emissions Link, presented at COP6 meeting, 13-24 November 2000, The Hague http://www.iea.org/envissu/cop6/eneinl.pdf

• IAEA and IEA (2001), Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development, presented at the 9th session of UN-CSD April 2001 http://www.iea.org/envissu/files/csd-9.pdf

• IEA (2001), Energy Indicators and Sustainable Development, presented at COP7 meeting, 29 October–9 November, Marrakesh http://www.iea.org/envissu/cop7sus.pdf

• IEA (2003), Key World Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/statist/key2003.pdf

• BP (2003), BP Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/index.asp

• http://www.iea.org/stats/defs/sources/petrol.htm

• DGE, Balanços Energéticos Nacionais http://www.dge.pt/main.asp?idtemas=3&idsubtemas=1&Idconteudos=905

• IEA (1997), The Link between Energy and Human Activity http://library.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/bookshop/b.aspx

m.sc. in engineering policy and management of technology

Documents