mrhammond - mrlindeman74.weebly.com
TRANSCRIPT
Why Baseball?
“Baseball, more than other sports, gave you meaningful things to
count, and by counting them you could determine the value of the
people who played the game.” -Michael Lewis
One vs. One (Pitcher vs. Batter)
BUT WHAT IF…
BUT WHAT IF…
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical Probability
What can students use to
determine
?
Common Core Alignment
7.EE.B.4: Use variables to represent quantities in a real- world or mathematical problem, and construct simple equations to solve problems.
7.RP.A.2c: Represent Proportional relationships by equations.
7.RP.A.3: Use proportional relationships to solve multistep ratio problems. 7.SP.C.5: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1…larger numbers indicate greater likelihood.
7.SP.C.7: Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies.
Gathering The
Equipment
Student Portfolios (binders, folders, etc.)
Baseball Cards
Protractors
Coloring Pencils/Crayons
9-Sleeve Card Protector Pages
Transparent Spinners
Baseball Diamond Boards
Jeremy and Jennifer Miller’s Cards
Contact Jeremy and Jennifer Miller at [email protected] and mention the CMC!
Statistical Abbreviations
1B Singles
2B Doubles
3B Triples
HR Homeruns
BB Walks
SO Strikeouts
PA Plate Appearances
AB At-Bats
Hit the ball— Reach the 1st of 4 bases
Total number of times a plate appearance ends with a HIT or OUT (strikeout or other out)
Hit the ball— Reach the 2nd of 4 bases
Hit the ball— Reach the 3rd of 4 bases
Hit the ball— Reach the 4th of 4 bases
Take four non-strike pitches— Reach the 1st of 4 bases
Did NOT hit the ball— Did NOT reach base
Total number of opportunities a player has to hit the bill
H
I
T
S
O
N
B
A
S
E
Statistical Abbreviations
1B Singles
2B Doubles
3B Triples
HR Homeruns
BB Walks
SO Strikeouts
PA Plate Appearances
AB At-Bats
Statistical Abbreviations
1B Singles
2B Doubles
3B Triples
HR Homeruns
BB Walks
SO Strikeouts
PA Plate Appearances
AB At-Bats * *
* *
Calculating the MISSING STATS
• STEP 1—To calculate PLATE APPEARANCES (PA) use player card and formula:
AB + BB = PA
( ) + ( ) = PA
• STEP 2—To calculate SINGLES (1B), use player card and the formula:
H – ( 2B + 3B + HR) = 1B
( ) – [( ) + ( ) + ( )] = 1B
3rd Inning
To determine how often a player achieves a certain statistical outcome AS A PERCENT…
BUT WHAT IF…
BUT WHAT IF…
!
Singles
Doubles
Triples
Homeruns
Walks
Strikeouts
Name of Statistic Formula Show Work Here!
Circle Graph for Mike Trout
Circle Graph for Joey Votto
Reyes’ OBP is higher
Davis has more homers
Davis has more Walks
Reyes has more extrabase hits
One Word:
CHOICE
6th Inning
Play Ball!
“When you are managing a baseball team you have to pick the right people to play and then
pray a lot.” – Robin Roberts
1.) Decide who will spin first and second in each ROUND of play (must remain constant throughout the game). 2.) Decide on the order of your 9 player batting lineup (once you decide on the order of your players, it must remain the same throughout the game—NO LINEUP CHANGES!) 3.) You must keep track of the results of each of YOUR players’ plate appearances during the game.
Rules of the Game
SINGLE: Place a chip on first base (all other chips on the board advance TWO SPACES). DOUBLE: Place a chip on second base (all other chips on the board advance TWO SPACES). TRIPLE: Place a chip on third base (all other chips on the board SCORE ONE RUN EACH). HOMERUN: Tally ONE RUN (all other chips on the board SCORE ONE RUN each) WALK: Place a chip on first base (all other chips on the board advance ONE SPACE ONLY if a chip is on first / or chips are on first & second / or chips are on first & second & third).
On Your Turn, if You Spin a:
OUT: Tally ONE OUT (all other chips on the board advance ONE SPACE). STRIKEOUT: Tally ONE OUT ***Remember: once you tally THREE OUTS, your turn ends. You and your opponent each get 9 turns (of three outs each) to score as many runs as you can. The person with the most runs after 9 turns wins the game!
On Your Turn, if You Spin a:
The
8th Inning
Self-Improvement & Comparative Analysis
(Trades)
“Analysis will, in time, enable synthesis to become your habit of mind.” – Frank Lloyd Wright
9th Inning
Evaluation,
Assessment, &
Extension
Probability
•What is the probability your player will spin a single or a walk?
•What is the probability your player will spin an extra-base hit
(double or triple or homerun)?
•What is the probability your player will spin a strikeout in his first at-bat
and a strikeout in his next at-bat?
•What is the probability that your player will spin a single in his first at-bat
and a double in his next at bat?
•What is the probability your player will spin a strikeout or other out?
•What is the probability that on any given at-bat your player will spin
a single or a double or a triple or a homerun?
Using statistics to build a probability model is called Theoretical Probability.
Using a probability model to create new statistics is called Experimental
Probability. The games that you played using the spinners created a new set of
Experimental Probability data that could be used to create a new season’s worth of statistics on the back of each
players’ baseball cards. Using your team’s statistics from each game you
played, find your team’s average of hits per game, median number of hits,
mode number of his, and the range of hits per game.
Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics, is renown for his ability to assemble winning baseball
teams based on theoretical probability and advanced mathematical
sabermetrics. Since the year 2000, The Oakland A’s have made it to the
playoffs 7 times (while spending very little on players’ salaries) but have
failed to advance to the World Series in each of these 7 seasons. What
mathematical reasoning could explain why the A’s can do well during the 162 game regular season, but not do well during the playoffs? Write an essay
explaining your rationale.
The circle graphs in this project are a visual representation of each player’s unique On-Base Percentage. With the understanding that a player’s On-Base Percentage is expressed as how would the circle graphs look different (or would they look different) if the circle graphs were instead visual displays of each player’s Batting Average? Batting Average is calculated as . If you were the general manager of a baseball team, which statistic (On-Base Percentage or Batting Average) would you use to judge the value of baseball players and why?
sAppearance Plate
WalksHits
BatsAt
Hits
OBP: .343 HR: 30
8 Million Dollars
OBP: .308 HR: 32
2 Million Dollars
OBP: .359 HR: 20
5 Million Dollars
OBP: .412 HR: 30
10 Million Dollars
Middle School Moneyball
Which player is the best value? Explain your rationale.
Fantasy Baseball Rubric The following is the grading criterion for the project. All materials related to project should be arranged in the order listed below. I. ______ (5 points). Fantasy Baseball Coversheet with your name on it. II. ______ (18 points). 9 undamaged baseball cards in protective sleeve sheet. III. ______ (45 points). Nine circle graphs (labeled, colored, MATHEMATICALLY ACCURATE, and inside page protectors). IV. ______ (45 points). Nine equation/proportion worksheets (showing the completed proportional equalities). V. ______ (20 points). Score sheets for AT LEAST TWO simulated games. VI. ______ (17 points). Probability worksheet VII. ______ (30 points). 3 Essay prompts (10 points each) TOTAL ____________ (180 points)
So What Do The Students Think
About All Of This?...
• Did this project help you with your understanding of any particular math concept? If so, explain how. If not, explain how this project could be changed to help your understanding of these concepts.
• Did this project help with your understanding of how mathematics are used in
real-world job settings? If so, explain how. If not, explain how this project could be changed to help your understanding of how mathematics are used in real-world jobs.
• Give an honest opinion of this project. What did you like? What did you not like? Do you have any suggestions for how this project can be improved? If so, explain.
Fantasy Baseball Exit Survey