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October 13 2008 page 1 © MRC

PVC-S

PVC-E

PVC-S. Europe

PVC-S. Asia

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Ukraine. PVC October 13 2008 Week № 41 Weekly price report Editor: Sergey Karaichentsev ([email protected])

This report is made up on the basis of opinion of converters, traders, polymers producers and market experts. All the data presented in the report are exclusive opinion of MRC specialists. We do not take

any responsibility for consequences of the decisions made with use of the information in the given report.

Weekly Monthly

Price PVC-S1, domestic market, CPT Kiev, UAH/mt

8 400

8 650

8 900

9 150

9 400

18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S1, domestic market, CPT Kiev, UAH/mt

6 600

7 350

8 100

8 850

9 600

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20072008

Price PVC-Е2, domestic market, CPT Kiev, UAH/mt

10 900

11 050

11 200

11 350

11 500


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-Е2, domestic market, CPT Kiev, UAH/mt

9 400

9 900

10 400

10 900

11 400

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


20072008

Price PVC-S, FD NWE, spot, USD/mt

1 120

1 195

1 270

1 345

1 420


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, FD NWE, spot, USD/mt

1 000

1 125

1 250

1 375

1 500

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


20072008

Price PVC-S, CFR NE Asia, spot, USD/mt

950

1 050

1 150

1 250

1 350


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, CFR NE Asia, spot, USD/mt

820

945

1 070

1 195

1 320

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2007

2008

папрп 1- domestic price corrected to CPT, Kiev, including customs duties and VAT, UAH (the average weighted price index of not less than five PVC-S brands)

2- domestic price corrected to CPT, Kiev, including customs duties and VAT, UAH (the average weighted price index of not less than five PVC-E brands)

Price report. Ukraine. PVC


Serious fluctuations in US$/EUR exchange rates regarding UAH stirred

up the Ukrainian PVC market. Some trading companies even

suspended resin sales. The same actions were observed in other large-

capacity polymers markets. At the same time, trading companies

reported that in case a buyer needed resin acutely, prices were

calculated in accordance with the current US$ or EUR exchange rate.

Last Monday, the US$ exchange rate regarding UAH moved at 5.3 in

the interbank market. On Tuesday, the US$ exchange rate kept on

growing and moved at the maximum level of 5.82 on Wednesday. The

National Bank of Ukraine had managed to bring the US$ exchange rate

regarding UAH down to 5.31 by Friday. Such dynamics made trading

companies review their selling prices. By the middle of the week, prices

for Chinese PVC had moved within the range of UAH9.100–9.200/mt

(USD1.635–1.655/mt), including VAT, DDP Kyiv. LG’s ethylene-based

resin produced in China was offered within the range of UAH9.200–

9.300/mt (USD1.655–1.670/mt), including VAT, DDP Kharkiv and

Rovno.

Some Ukrainian converters who had small stocks and being afraid of

the increasing US$ exchange rate were looking for cheap feedstock

over the course of the week. In the long run, those companies refused

from feedstock purchases and demonstrated wait-and-see attitude.

There were reports on one barter transaction. One of the Ukrainian

profile producers took PVC resin from a trader in exchange for resin that

that was to be delivered at the end of the month.

Trading companies say their pricing policy will depend on fluctuations in

the US$ exchange rate regarding UAH. Nearly all traders fixed this

week’s PVC prices taking into account the US$ exchange rate as of

Friday and some risks regarding future US$ exchange rate fluctuations.

At the same time, nearly all market players are guided by financial

analysts’ expectations that the US$ exchange rate regarding hryvnia is

going to vary within the range of 5.25-5.3 till the end of the year.

In September, the Ukrainian Customs tightened control over PVC-S

imports to Ukraine. At some customs stations they tightened control over

declaring PVC-S customs value. There are reports on particularly tight

customs control on the eastern border; at the same time, Ukrainian

importers have to provide additional documents proving declared resin

value.

Global PVC prices continue to drop, which results in even lower PVC

prices offered to Ukrainian companies. October prices for Vinnolit’s resin

moved at the level of EUR815-820/mt, FCA. Asian traders offer

Formosa’s resin (S-65 grade) at USD1.000/mt, CIF Odessa.

Apart from the obvious pressure because of the decreased PVC prices,

the main issue now is how producers are going to act this month.

Further decrease in resin prices is obvious. The situation is not to

improve within the nearest future. Producers still have big stocks. In

view of lacking positive trends, converters tend to cut stocks. The

situation in the European market is quite ambiguous.

From time to time, producers resume exports to support balance in the

domestic market. Demand for resin in Asia dropped seriously thus

pushing big volumes of produced resin to export markets. As a result,

Asia turned out to be far ahead of Europe. In spite of the fact that

European producers have an opportunity to cut PVC prices due to lower

ethylene prices, the gap between domestic prices and exports to the

Middle East is still big. The decrease in prices by EUR40/mt already at

the beginning of the month does not betoken anything good since

consumers ask for more price concessions. The spot market is even

weaker: prices dropped below EUR900/mt, FD. At the same time,

European producers continue to cut resin output. Particularly, they cut

utilization of PVC production capacities in Rafnes. VCM supply for

Aycliffe from Scandinavia was cut, as well.

Last week, buying activity in the PVC market in North-eastern Asia was

quite weak because of the National holiday. However, there are no signs

that landslide of prices is going to stop, even taking into account the fact

that prices went down below the psychological level of USD900/mt,

CFR. The majority of producers in China and Hong Kong turned out to

be not able to cut their stocks over that short period of time; the main

reason was the slowing down in production of finished goods. Resin

suppliers from Taiwan, Japan and South-eastern Asia were to cut output

to avoid increasing stocks because exports dropped sharply. Some

producers hope that demand in Turkey and in the Middle East is to

become stable after Ramadan; therefore they are slowing down

decrease in prices. At the same time, local PVC prices were cut down to

USD1.020-1.050/mt, CFR.

Domestic PVC demand in China was weak because some producers

suspended production due to incurred losses. Prices for acetylene-

based PVC remain practically flat at the level of RMB 6.650-6.800/mt,

FD. At the same time, prices for ethylene-based resin vary within the

range of RMB6.800-7.200/mt, FD. Demand for pipes dropped; exports of

finished goods to North America are falling due to the economic crisis.

The Chinese government took a decision to review antidumping

liabilities regarding PVC imports.

.

Price variation3, Ukraine Price variation3, Europe, Asia Type PVC Year ago Quarter ago Month ago Week ago Region Year ago Quarter ago Month ago Week ago

PVC-S Europe

PVC-E

Asia

3 -difference between current price and the previous period's price

Ukraine Europe

Asia



PVC-S Domestic market price4

PVC 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

PVC-S* 9 238 9 238 9 238 9 355 9 355 9 355 9 355 9 330 8 721 8 743 8 743 8 743 8 700

Increase, UAH - - - 117 - - - -25 -610 22 - - -43

PVC-S** 8 771 8 771 8 771 8 939 8 939 8 926 8 926 8 931 8 931 8 842 8 842 8 842 9 019

Increase, UAH - - - 168 - -13 - 5 - -89 - - 177 By producers' brands5

Brands 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct Ongrovil S-

5070/BorsodChem 9 300 9 300 9 300 9 500 9 500 9 500 9 500 - 8 700 8 700 8 700 8 700 8 700

Increase, UAH - - - 200 - - - - - - - - -

Polanvil S-70/Anwil 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 8 750 8 750 8 750 8 750 -

Increase, UAH - - - - - - - - -400 - - - -

Total* K=70 9 216 9 216 9 216 9 304 9 304 9 304 9 304 9 150 8 728 8 728 8 728 8 728 8 700

Ongrovil S-5167/BorsodChem 9 300 9 300 9 300 9 500 9 500 9 500 9 500 9 500 8 700 8 750 8 750 8 750 -

Increase, UAH - - - 200 - - - - -800 50 - - -

Polanvil S-67/Anwil 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 9 150 8 750 8 750 8 750 8 750 -

Increase, UAH - - - - - - - - -400 - - - -

Total* K=64/67 9 249 9 249 9 249 9 382 9 382 9 382 9 382 9 382 8 717 8 750 8 750 8 750 -

LS100/LG 8 900 8 900 8 900 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 200

Increase, UAH - - - 100 - - - - - - - - 200

S-65/Formosa 8 700 8 700 8 700 8 900 8 900 8 900 8 900 8 900 8 900 8 750 8 750 8 750 8 900

Increase, UAH - - - 200 - - - - - -150 - - 150

SG5/Xinjiang Tianye 8 500 8 500 8 500 - - 8 400 8 400 8 600 8 600 8 600 8 600 8 600 9 100

Increase, UAH - - - - - - - 200 - - - - 500

Total** K=64/67 8 771 8 771 8 771 8 939 8 939 8 926 8 926 8 931 8 931 8 842 8 842 8 842 9 019

Reduced domestic market prices excluding VAT, CPT, Kiev, USD Brands 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

Ongrovil S-5070/BorsodChem 1 674 1 674 1 659 1 686 1 694 1 694 1 694 - 1 501 1 457 1 421 1 399 1 305

Increase, USD - - -16 28 8 - - - - -44 -36 -22 -94 Polanvil S-70/Anwil 1 647 1 647 1 632 1 624 1 632 1 632 1 632 1 594 1 509 1 466 1 429 1 407 -

Increase, USD - - -15 -8 8 - - -38 -84 -44 -36 -22 - Total* K=70 1 659 1 659 1 643 1 651 1 659 1 659 1 659 1 594 1 506 1 462 1 426 1 404 1 305


Increase, USD - - -16 28 8 - - -40 -154 -35 -36 -22 - Polanvil S-67/Anwil 1 647 1 647 1 632 1 624 1 632 1 632 1 632 1 594 1 509 1 466 1 429 1 407 -

Increase, USD - - -15 -8 8 - - -38 -84 -44 -36 -22 - Total* K=64/67 1 665 1 665 1 649 1 665 1 673 1 673 1 673 1 634 1 504 1 466 1 429 1 407 -

LS100/LG 1 602 1 602 1 587 1 598 1 605 1 605 1 605 1 568 1 553 1 508 1 470 1 448 1 380

Increase, USD - - -15 10 8 - - -38 -15 -45 -38 -23 -68

S-65/Formosa 1 566 1 566 1 552 1 580 1 587 1 587 1 587 1 550 1 535 1 466 1 429 1 407 1 335

Increase, USD - - -15 28 7 - - -37 -15 -70 -36 -22 -72 SG5/Xinjiang

Tianye 1 530 1 530 1 516 - - 1 498 1 498 1 498 1 484 1 441 1 405 1 383 1 365

Increase, USD - - -14 - - - - 0 -14 -43 -36 -22 -18 Total** K=64/67 1 579 1 579 1 564 1 587 1 594 1 592 1 592 1 555 1 541 1 481 1 444 1 422 1 353

* - weighted average price of European PVC brands ** - weighted average price of Asian PVC brands " - " - there are no free volumes for sale 4- Ukrainian domestic market prices, estimated in view of "weight" of each brand depending on its consumption volumes 5- Price in Ukrainian domestic market in UAH with customs duties (for brands of foreign producers), VAT and transport costs, corrected to CPT, processor's warehouse Kiev,

payment conditions - advance payment brands К-70, as a rule, are used for cable and shoe compounds production brands К-63/67, as a rule, are used for profiles/panels articles production (PPA)



PVC-E

Domestic market price4 Type PVC 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

PVC-E 10 994 10 994 10 994 11 287 11 287 11 296 11 296 11 393 11 393 11 424 11 424 11 424 11 424

Increase, UAH - - - 293 - 8 - 97 - 31 - - -

By producers' brands5

Brands 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct Pevikon Р15/Ineos Polyolefins

10 540 10 540 10 540 11 000 11 000 11 050 11 050 11 200 11 200 11 250 11 250 11 250 11 250

Increase, UAH - - - 460 - 50 - 150 - 50 - - -

Vestolit E7012/Vestolit 12 510 12 510 12 510 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570 12 570

Increase, UAH - - - 60 - - - - - - - - -

Vestolit E7012S/Vestolit 12 490 12 490 12 490 12 550 12 550 12 550 12 550 12 600 12 600 12 600 12 600 12 600 12 600

Increase, UAH - - - 60 - - - 50 - - - - -

Vinnolit E67ST/Vinnolit 12 960 12 960 12 960 13 000 13 000 13 000 13 000 13 100 13 100 13 150 13 150 13 150 13 150

Increase, UAH - - - 40 - - - 100 - 50 - - -

coating 11 989 11 989 11 989 12 175 12 175 12 191 12 191 12 286 12 286 12 317 12 317 12 317 12 317

Slovinyl EP-702/Novacke

chemicke zavody 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 400 10 400 10 400 10 400 10 500 10 500 10 530 10 530 10 530 10 530

Increase, UAH - - - 400 - - - 100 - 30 - - -

Wallpapers** 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 400 10 400 10 400 10 400 10 500 10 500 10 530 10 530 10 530 10 530

Reduced domestic market prices excluding VAT, CPT, Kiev, USD Brands 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct Pevikon Р15/Ineos Polyolefins

1 897 1 897 1 880 1 952 1 962 1 971 1 971 1 951 1 932 1 884 1 838 1 809 1 688

Increase, USD - - -18 73 9 9 - -20 -19 -48 -47 -28 -122


Increase, USD - - -21 0 10 - - -52 -21 -63 -52 -31 -136


Increase, USD - - -21 0 10 - - -44 -21 -63 -53 -32 -136


Increase, USD - - -22 -4 11 - - -37 -22 -57 -55 -33 -142

coating 2 158 2 158 2 138 2 161 2 171 2 174 2 174 2 140 2 119 2 063 2 012 1 981 1 848


chemicke zavody 1 800 1 800 1 783 1 846 1 855 1 855 1 855 1 829 1 811 1 764 1 720 1 694 1 580

Increase, USD - - -17 63 9 - - -26 -18 -47 -44 -26 -114

coating 1 800 1 800 1 783 1 846 1 855 1 855 1 855 1 829 1 811 1 764 1 720 1 694 1 580

4- Ukrainian domestic market prices, estimated in view of "weight" of each brand depending on its consumption volumes 5- Price in Ukrainian domestic market in UAH with customs duties (for brands of foreign producers), VAT and transport costs, corrected to CPT, processor's warehouse Kiev,

payment conditions - advance payment



PVC-S. Monthly

Domestic market price4

Month Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

PVC-S* 7 927 7 816 7 750 8 267 8 480 8 704 8 959 8 988 9 056 9 238 9 355 8 841 8 700

Increase, UAH - -111 -66 518 213 224 255 29 68 182 117 -514 -141

PVC-S** 7 833 7 698 7 697 7 951 8 404 8 503 8 725 8 755 8 797 8 771 8 933 8 877 9 019

Increase, UAH - -136 -1 255 452 100 222 30 42 -26 161 -55 142


Brands Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

Ongrovil S-5070/BorsodChem 7 900 8 000 7 920 8 350 8 575 8 720 9 000 9 050 9 130 9 300 9 500 8 700 8 700

Increase, UAH - 100 -80 430 225 145 280 50 80 170 200 -800 -

Polanvil S-70/Anwil 7 900 7 800 7 720 8 150 8 300 8 675 8 900 8 900 8 950 9 150 9 150 8 830 -

Increase, UAH - -100 -80 430 150 375 225 - 50 200 - -320 -

Total* K=70 7 900 7 856 7 808 8 238 8 440 8 697 8 944 8 966 9 029 9 216 9 304 8 780 8 700


Increase, UAH - -160 -80 630 225 145 280 50 80 170 200 -610 -

Polanvil S-67/Anwil 7 900 7 800 7 720 8 150 8 300 8 675 8 900 8 900 8 950 9 150 9 150 8 830 -

Increase, UAH - -100 -80 430 150 375 225 - 50 200 - -320 -

Total* K=64/67 7 940 7 800 7 720 8 282 8 499 8 707 8 966 8 999 9 069 9 249 9 382 8 870 -

LS100/LG 7 800 7 720 7 700 7 900 8 500 8 500 8 850 8 850 8 900 8 900 9 000 9 000 9 100

Increase, UAH - -80 -20 200 600 - 350 - 50 - 100 - 100

S-65/Formosa 7 875 7 720 7 700 7 900 8 350 8 475 8 650 8 690 8 750 8 700 8 900 8 825 8 825

Increase, UAH - -155 -20 200 450 125 175 40 60 -50 200 -75 -

SG5/Xinjiang Tianye 7 700 7 620 7 563 7 910 8 200 8 350 8 550 8 600 8 600 8 500 8 400 8 600 8 850

Increase, UAH - -80 -58 348 290 150 200 50 - -100 -100 200 250

Total** K=64/67 7 842 7 718 7 697 7 900 8 404 8 480 8 711 8 749 8 804 8 771 8 933 8 886 8 930

Reduced domestic market prices excluding VAT, CPT, Kiev, USD

Brands Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

Ongrovil S-5070/BorsodChem 1 304 1 320 1 308 1 357 1 408 1 443 1 497 1 558 1 603 1 665 1 692 1 460 1 352

Increase, USD - 17 -12 50 50 35 54 61 45 63 27 -233 -108 Polanvil S-70/Anwil 1 304 1 290 1 275 1 324 1 363 1 440 1 481 1 534 1 563 1 644 1 630 1 499 1 407

Increase, USD - -13 -16 50 38 77 41 53 29 81 -14 -130 -92 Total* K=70 1 304 1 297 1 289 1 339 1 386 1 441 1 488 1 544 1 580 1 653 1 657 1 485 1 374


Increase, USD - -26 -13 97 37 38 69 50 47 59 22 -201 - Polanvil S-67/Anwil 1 304 1 287 1 274 1 338 1 363 1 440 1 498 1 539 1 580 1 643 1 630 1 481 -

Increase, USD - -17 -13 64 25 78 58 41 41 63 -13 -149 - Total* K=64/67 1 310 1 287 1 274 1 360 1 395 1 444 1 509 1 556 1 601 1 661 1 671 1 488 -

LS100/LG 1 287 1 271 1 271 1 305 1 395 1 407 1 490 1 530 1 571 1 598 1 603 1 509 1 380

Increase, USD - -16 - 35 90 12 83 41 41 27 5 -94 -129

S-65/Formosa 1 297 1 271 1 271 1 305 1 371 1 411 1 456 1 504 1 543 1 562 1 585 1 477 1 335

Increase, USD - -26 - 35 66 41 45 48 38 20 23 -108 -142 SG5/Xinjiang

Tianye 1 271 1 254 1 247 1 313 1 346 1 386 1 448 1 487 1 514 1 526 1 498 1 442 1 365

Increase, USD - -17 -7 66 33 40 61 39 27 12 -28 -56 -77 Total** K=64/67 1 293 1 270 1 270 1 305 1 380 1 409 1 469 1 514 1 553 1 575 1 591 1 489 1 353

* - weighted average price of European PVC brands ** - weighted average price of Asian PVC brands " - " - there are no free volumes for sale 4- Ukrainian domestic market prices, estimated in view of "weight" of each brand depending on its consumption volumes 5- Price in Ukrainian domestic market in UAH with customs duties (for brands of foreign producers), VAT and transport costs, corrected to CPT, processor's warehouse Kiev,

payment conditions - advance payment brands К-70, as a rule, are used for cable and shoe compounds production brands К-63/67, as a rule, are used for profiles/panels articles production (PPA)



PVC-E. Monthly

Domestic market price4

Type PVC-E Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

PVC-E 9 920 10 090 10 146 10 146 10 264 10 264 10 562 10 580 10 738 10 994 11 292 11 411 11 424

Increase, UAH - 170 56 - 119 - 298 18 159 256 297 120 12


Brands Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

Pevikon Р15/Ineos Polyolefins

9 370 9 513 9 550 9 550 9 650 9 650 10 025 10 060 10 160 10 540 11 025 11 230 11 250

Increase, UAH - 143 37 - 100 - 375 35 100 380 485 205 20


Increase, UAH - 75 25 - 200 - 225 -10 13 82 60 - -


Increase, UAH - 85 25 - 200 - 225 -10 5 70 60 50 -


Increase, UAH - 140 50 - 100 - 213 -8 569 86 40 130 20

coating 11 035 11 155 11 192 11 192 11 329 11 329 11 599 11 605 11 811 11 989 12 183 12 305 12 317


chemicke zavody 8 804 9 025 9 100 9 100 9 200 9 200 9 525 9 555 9 666 10 000 10 400 10 518 10 530

Increase, UAH - 221 75 - 100 - 325 30 111 334 400 118 12

coating 8 804 9 025 9 100 9 100 9 200 9 200 9 525 9 555 9 666 10 000 10 400 10 518 10 530

Reduced domestic market prices excluding VAT, CPT, Kiev, USD

Brands Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

Pevikon Р15/Ineos Polyolefins

1 546 1 570 1 576 1 568 1 584 1 600 1 688 1 740 1 793 1 893 1 964 1 883 1 688

Increase, USD - 24 6 -8 16 16 87 52 54 99 71 -81 -195


Increase, USD - 12 4 -10 33 20 68 55 47 53 -8 -131 -222


Increase, USD - 14 4 -10 33 20 68 55 45 51 -8 -123 -223


Increase, USD - 23 8 -10 16 20 66 55 145 55 -12 -114 -229

coating 1 821 1 841 1 847 1 837 1 860 1 879 1 953 2 007 2 085 2 153 2 170 2 063 1 848


chemicke zavody 1 453 1 489 1 502 1 494 1 510 1 526 1 604 1 652 1 706 1 796 1 852 1 763 1 580

Increase, USD - 36 12 -8 16 15 78 49 54 90 57 -89 -184

coating 1 453 1 489 1 502 1 494 1 510 1 526 1 604 1 652 1 706 1 796 1 852 1 763 1 580

4- Ukrainian domestic market prices, estimated in view of "weight" of each brand depending on its consumption volumes 5- Price in Ukrainian domestic market in UAH with customs duties (for brands of foreign producers), VAT and transport costs, corrected to CPT, processor's warehouse Kiev,

payment conditions - advance payment



Ukraine. Reduced domestic prices, USD, excluding VAT (and duties - for foreign brands) Price PVC-S, European brands, DDU Kiev, USD/mt

1 100

1 275

1 450

1 625

1 800

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2007

2008

Price PVC-S, Asian brands, DDU Kiev, USD/mt

1 080

1 230

1 380

1 530

1 680

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2007

2008

West Europe, FD NWE, contract, USD/mt

Price PVC-S, FD NWE, contract

1 350

1 425

1 500

1 575

1 650


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, FD NWE, contract

1 250

1 350

1 450

1 550

1 650

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2007

2008

Central & Eastern Europe, FD CEE, contract, USD/mt

Price PVC-S, FD CEE, contract

1 300

1 375

1 450

1 525

1 600


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, FD CEE, contract

1 220

1 320

1 420

1 520

1 620

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2007

2008

West Europe, FD NWE, spot, USD/mt

Price PVC-S, FD NWE, spot

1 130

1 205

1 280

1 355

1 430


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, FD NWE, spot

1 060

1 160

1 260

1 360

1 460

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2007

2008

Europe, FD, contract, EUR/mt

Region 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

FD NWE 968 1 028 1 045 1 045 1 045 1 045 1 050 1 050 1 050 1 050 1 050 1 048 1 048

Increase, EUR - 60 18 - - - 5 - - - - -3 -

FD CEE 933 993 1 010 1 010 1 010 1 010 1 020 1 020 1 020 1 020 1 020 1 010 1 010

Increase, EUR - 60 18 - - - 10 - - - - -10 -

West Europe, spot, EUR/mt Region 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

FD NWE 875 890 890 890 890 890 908 908 915 910 908 908 873

Increase, EUR - 15 - - - - 18 - 8 -5 -3 - -35



West Europe Ethylene, naphtha, crude oil. Currency exchange rates

Price ethylene, CIF NWE, spot, USD/mt

1 100

1 300

1 500

1 700

1 900


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price ethylene, CIF NWE, spot, USD/mt

1 200

1 375

1 550

1 725

1 900

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2007

2008

Price naphtha, FOB NWE, spot, USD/mt

600

750

900

1 050

1 200


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price naphtha, FOB NWE, spot, USD/mt

470

645

820

995

1 170

1 345

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2008

2007

Price Brent, FOB NWE, USD/mt

500

600

700

800

900


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price Brent, FOB NWE, USD/mt

300

450

600

750

900

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2008

2007

Exchange rates EUR/USD

1,30

1,38

1,45

1,53

1,60


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Exchange rates EUR/USD

1,30

1,38

1,46

1,54

1,62

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2007

2008

Product 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct Ethylene, CIF

NWE 1 825 1 825 1 825 1 825 1 655 1 670 1 575 1 600 1 425 1 375 1 275 1 175 1 225

Naphtha, CIF NWE 1 115 1 094 1 010 980 933 962 993 906 870 811 832 759 679

Brent, FOB NWE 856 787 754 727 682 678 697 661 614 563 617 586 516

EUR/USD 1,59 1,58 1,56 1,54 1,49 1,48 1,47 1,45 1,41 1,42 1,47 1,41 1,36



Asia Asia, spot, USD/mt

Region 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

CFR NE Asia 1 250 1 250 1 325 1 305 1 305 1 290 1 185 1 130 1 105 1 095 1 085 980 955

Increase, USD - - 75 -20 - -15 -105 -55 -25 -10 -10 -105 -25

CFR SE Asia 1 240 1 240 1 240 1 240 1 270 1 265 1 160 1 140 1 120 1 120 1 115 1 070 965

Increase, USD - - - - 30 -5 -105 -20 -20 - -5 -45 -105

FOB China export 1 235 1 235 1 275 1 270 1 225 1 210 1 135 1 090 1 025 1 005 970 900 900

Increase, USD - - 40 -5 -45 -15 -75 -45 -65 -20 -35 -70 -

Ethylene, naphtha, crude oil. Currency exchange rates

Price ethylene, CFR NE Asia, USD/mt

900

1 100

1 300

1 500

1 700


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price ethylene, CFR NE Asia, USD/mt

900

1 125

1 350

1 575

1 800

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2008

2007

Price naphtha, CFR Japan, spot, USD/mt

600

775

950

1 125

1 300


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price naphtha, CFR Japan, spot, USD/mt

510

710

910

1 110

1 310

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


2007

2007

Price VCM, CFR SE Asia, USD/mt

820

870

920

970

1 020


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price VCM, CFR SE Asia, USD/mt

650

750

850

950

1 050

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2008

2007

Price PVC-S, CFR SE Asia, USD/mt

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, CFR SE Asia, USD/mt

800

925

1 050

1 175

1 300

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2007

2008



Price PVC-S, CFR NE Asia, USD/mt

950

1 050

1 150

1 250

1 350


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, CFR NE Asia, USD/mt

820

945

1 070

1 195

1 320

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2008

2007

Price PVC-S, FOB export China, USD/mt

800

925

1 050

1 175

1 300


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price PVC-S, FOB export China, USD/mt

880

980

1 080

1 180

1 280

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2008

Price acetylene PVC-S, FOB export China, USD/mt

800

925

1 050

1 175

1 300


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Price acetylene PVC-S, FOB export China, USD/mt

800

925

1 050

1 175

1 300

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2008

China. Acetylene PVC-S, USD/mt

Week 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct PVC, FOB export

China 1 205 1 205 1 258 1 245 1 210 1 155 1 090 1 050 980 970 945 890 890

Increase, USD - - 53 -13 -35 -55 -65 -40 -70 -10 -25 -55 -

Asia. Ethylene, naphtha, VCM, crude oil, USD/mt

Product 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct Ethylene, CFR NE

Asia 1 700 1 695 1 675 1 615 1 455 1 400 1 360 1 325 1 260 1 200 1 075 1 060 955

Naphtha, CFR Japan 1 191 1 182 1 135 1 058 1 009 998 1 002 969 880 821 851 777 666

VCM, CFR SE Asia 995 995 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 978 920 915 910 905 890 890

Crude oil, Nymex 831 770 751 723 697 700 701 654 621 575 649 588 534



Price Nymex (Sweet Light), FOB, USD/mt

500

600

700

800

900

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2008

Price crude oil, FOB China Daqing, spot, USD/mt

500

600

700

800

900

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2008

Price PVC-S. Ukraine. Europe. Asia

Price9 PVC-S, spot, 2007/2008, USD/mt

900

1 050

1 200

1 350

1 500

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Ukraine, exclude VAT FD NWE NE Asia

Currency exchange rates

Exchange rates EUR/UAH

6,75

7,00

7,25

7,50

7,75


29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Exchange rates EUR/UAH

6,20

6,70

7,20

7,70

8,20

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2007

2008

Currency exchange rates

Currency 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug 29 Aug 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct 10 Oct

EUR/UAH 7,38 7,34 7,34 7,27 7,07 6,96 6,93 6,94 6,87 7,12 7,47 7,33 7,62

Increase, UAH - -0,04 0,00 -0,07 -0,20 -0,11 -0,03 0,01 -0,08 0,26 0,34 -0,14 0,29

USD/UAH 4,64 4,64 4,68 4,69 4,68 4,67 4,68 4,79 4,84 4,97 5,10 5,18 5,56

Increase, UAH - 0,00 0,04 0,01 -0,01 -0,01 0,02 0,11 0,04 0,14 0,12 0,08 0,38



News

October 10, 2008 PKN Orlen: Potential sale of PVC and fertiliser businesses

Details of the possible sale by PKN Orlen of the PVC and fertiliser

activities operated by its chemical unit Anwil and subsidiary Spolana

are to be announced in November 2008, with PKN potentially

unloading up to 85% of its stake. Anwil’s value is put at around USD

600m. Ciech and state-controlled Tarnow and Kedzierzyn are thought

to be planning a joint venture to submit an offer.

October 7, 2008 PVC prices expected to weaken further once Chinese buyers return

A pessimistic outlook prevailed in PVC market of Asia due to a dearth

on concluded deals last week as the major buyers in the continent- the

Chinese, were on a week long break. Though sellers have lowered

offers to US$970/MT CFR chine, buyers have expressed an interest to

buy almost seventy dollars lower. The Chinese do not seem to be in a

hurry to buy and prefer to wait and watch- this could result in further

price declines. Saddled with stock piles due to lackluster buying,

several PVC producers in Asia have got down operating rates.

Hanwha Chemicals is believed to be running its 560,000 tpa PVC plant

at 70% capacity, while Japan's Taiyo has cut operating rates by 15%. October 6, 2008 Membrane technology reduces electricity use

Solvay is to invest EUR 55m in membrane-based electrolytic

technology for chlorine manufacture at its Tavaux / France site to

replace part of its mercury-based electrolysis production and reduce

electricity consumption. The new unit will be operational by the end of

2010. The chlorine capacity at the site will remain at the current level

of 360,000 t/y, but the majority will be produced through membrane-

based electrolysis. Chlorine produced at Tavaux is used primarily to

feed the fully integrated vinyl chloride production line.

October 6, 2008 Chinese demand drives market to USD 32 bn

Demand from China has helped drive the global plastic additives

industry to 12.2m t in 2007, valuing it at USD 32 bn (EUR 22.3 bn),

according to the “Global plastic additives” study from Townsend

Polymer Services and Information The report said that rapid demand

growth for both domestically processed and imported plastics,

especially PVC, resulted in China accounting for 28% of worldwide

additives volumes, more than all other reporting regions. Plasticisers

remain the most important segment, accounting for 54% of global

volumes, while the use of flame retardants in plastics grew at one of

the fastest rates worldwide, the report said.

October 6, 2008 Italy: Chemical industry crisis session moved to late October

Italy’s national chemical industry commission, “Tavolo Nazionale della

Chimica”, has postponed until 25 October 2008 its next crisis session

on the future of the Porto Marghera site and the Italian chemical

industry in general. The minister for economic development, Claudio

Scajola, had intended to meet with companies and trade unions at the

end of September. However, a ministry spokesman told PIE that the

date has been changed due to the ongoing negotiations on Porto

Marghera, involving feedstock supply for the Ineos Vinyls Italia

(Venezia-Marghera) PVC plant, among other subjects.

October 6, 2008 Competitive pressure drives rigid film and sheet restructuring in Europe Rising costs and competitive pressures are driving restructuring within

the rigid film and sheet business in Europe. Private equity groups are

increasingly involved in reorganizing companies to improve profitability.

The British consultancy Applied Market Information Ltd of Bristol has

taken a look at the leading European suppliers of rigid films. According

to the report, the largest rigid film and sheet producer is Klöckner

Pentaplast, a supplier PVC and PET film and sheet. In recent years the

group has expanded significantly with several key acquisitions.

October 10, 2008 VCM prices fall on damp Chinese buying

A persistent fall has been witnessed in VCM prices to US$700/MT in

Asia in the week of October 13, 2008, in line with falling input values,

restrained demand from China and declining downstream PVC market

sentiments. VCM demand continues to wane and markets remain still as

several PVC producers in the continent have reduced operating rates in

a bid to dispose of stockpiles.

October 10, 2008 Unenthusiastic buying keeps outlook in PVC markets of Asia pessimistic Unenthusiastic buying and lack of deal conclusion has kept outlook for

PVC pessimistic in Asia in the week of October 13, 2008. Sellers, who

have reduced CFR China offers for October shipment to US$920/MT,

are encountering a further decline of twenty dollars in buying intentions.

Not under any pressures to buy amid slowing global demand, most

buyers prefer to wait and watch for yet another price correction in the

face of deteriorating demand from China, as well as falling feedstock

values. Chinese suppliers have revised offers to US$870/MT FOB CMP,

as the domestic PVC market of China continues to abate and typical

dealing prices slide marginally.

October 6, 2008 Standard Thermoplastics: Prices off peak in September In the first third of September, the western European standard

thermoplastics market suffered from extremely subdued demand from

consumer markets and a drop-off in buying in advance of expected price

declines in Q4, the newsletter Plastics Information Europe says in a

report currently online.

Initial calls for higher prices quickly dissipated, even plans for a rollover

had to move aside, says PIE. To make any sales at all, producers were

forced to offer rebates. Only PVC and hexene-based LLDPE remained

stable.


Methodology

References in the text 1- domestic price corrected to CPT, Kiev, including customs duties and VAT, UAH (the average weighted price index of not less than five PVC-S

brands) 2- domestic price corrected to CPT, Kiev, including customs duties and VAT, UAH (the average weighted price index of not less than five PVC-E

brands) 3 -difference between current price and the previous period's price 4- Ukrainian domestic market prices, estimated in view of "weight" of each brand depending on its consumption volumes. 5- Price in Ukrainian domestic market in UAH with customs duties (for brands of foreign producers), VAT and transport costs, corrected to CPT, processor's warehouse Kiev, payment conditions - advance payment 6- brands К-70, as a rule, are used for cable and shoe compounds production 7- brands К-63/67, as a rule, are used for profiles/panels articles production (PPA) 8 - spot prices for PVC-S, USD, Ukraine - excluding VAT; Europe FD NWE; Asia - by basis CFR * - weighted average price of European PVC brands

** - weighted average price of Asian PVC brands

" - " - there are no free volumes for sale

Price variations Indication of price deflections: Designations in figures (for example): rise in price by more than 2% - price decrease by 10 USD, from the last crucial point price remains stable fall in price by more than 2% - price increase by 10 USD, from the last crucial point General provisions We have tried to present the real sales prices precisely as much as possible. We have analysed in details price reports of other analytical companies worldwide. Also we tried to consider all critical responses of end users of such reports. Special methods of data processing have been developed for this purpose: to cut maximal and minimal prices; from great number of averages as a result of processing only one final figure remains that according to our opinion corresponds to the current market situation. For example for PVC-S it is possible to specify a certain range of the price 6.500 -7.000 UAH/mt in which the confidential interval will be above 99,5% (almost for certain it is possible "to get" in the general prices corridor developed in the market). However for the high-grade analysis this range is not necessary. Besides, it cannot be brought in MS Excel for the subsequent calculations or comparisons. Therefore we specify the variant of the price (based on our data processing methods) for example just 6.750 UAH/mt that will be closest to an average current market price. We do not exclude the situation when under such price it was not made any transaction on PVC sale at all. But even thus, such price in the market can be considered weighted average. Russian production prices, submitted in the report, are resulted in basis CPT, and for foreign production - basis DDU. The prices in basis EXW (for domestic producers) will be described in the text with analytics. For example, when we specify the price for production of company "BorsodChem ", 6.500 UAH/mt, including VAT, CPT, Kiev - this means that we considered transport expenses and also charges on cargo handling works on delivery to Kiev. During prices forming for a month in case of when such is not completed yet, we take value of current week price as average price for a month. Further we consider the formula of rolling average (1 week + 2 week +3 week / number of the passed weeks for the given month). Please subscribe for a free trial here http://www.mrcplast.com/mrc_subscribe.php Please subscribe for reports here http://www.mrcplast.com/allreports.php Please see more detailed schedule of reports’ publication http://www.mrcplast.com/docs/MRC_schedule_Eng.pdf Please see prices for the general subscription and discounts http://www.mrcplast.com/docs/MRC_prices_Eng.pdf Please see payment methods http://www.mrcplast.com/docs/MRC_payments_Eng.pdf

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