Mr. Steve Verna

Northrop Grumman

01 May 2007

Validation Methodology for Agent-Based Simulations

Workshop

Irregular WarfareWorking Definition

Purpose of This Briefing• To provide participants with a working

definition of Irregular Warfare (IW) for potential use in future discussions in this workshop

• To explain the rationale behind MCCDC’s focus on IW

• To define relevant aspects of IW at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of warfare

Definitions of IW

“A warfighting philosophy that seeks to achieve strategic objectives by avoiding an adversary's conventional military strength while eroding an adversary's power and will, primarily through the use of indirect, non-traditional aspects of warfare.”

Irregular Warfare Workshop (20 Sep 2005)

Definitions of IW (Cont’d)

“A violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.”

Terms of reference for upcoming MORS workshop on “Improving Cooperation Among Nations in Irregular Warfare Analysis,” Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (December 10-13 2007)

Why the Focus on IW?• Military Operations Research cannot remain

locked in the Cold War• New adversaries are:

Non-Governmental, but organized nonetheless Using new warfare techniques

• “Hearts and minds” focus• May be striving to achieve non-military (e.g., economic,

political, ideological) objectives and impacts (e.g., WTC attack)

• Capturing terrain is irrelevant

• MS&A needs to catch up IW may best be modeled and analyzed through

ABS

General Historical Perspective• Military modeling and analysis dates from

1940s Anti-submarine/U-boat search and screening

• Availability of digital computers (1960s) made wide-spread use of military simulation possible Force-on-force, physics-based simulations

• Confidence in predictive abilities of models required confidence in those models: VALIDATION

• Emergence of unparalleled conventional military power of U.S. (1990s) led to rise in consideration of asymmetric threats IW is one aspect of this

General Historical Perspective (Cont’d)

• Modeling IW requires new tools Force-on-force perspective not/less

important Psychological aspects of decision making

rise in importance Need to capture/simulate human behavior

• New tools require new techniques Including new validation techniques

Modeling Irregular Warfare• Many intangibles

Population sensitivity Human factors

• Non-linearity Breakpoints

• Co-evolution Both sides adapt to the actions of the

other in dynamic and unpredictable ways• Both sides operate with different objectives

IW Boundaries• Our definition of IW needs to

encompass all levels of warfare Tactical, operational, strategic Boundaries between these levels are ‘soft’

• We are simplifying the issue by focusing on selected aspects of each level of warfare

Aspects of Tactical IW

Appropriate for Potential Consideration

in This Workshop:• Improvised explosive

devices• Suicide bombers• Hostage taking• Sabotage• Urban warfare

Inappropriate for Potential Consideration

in This Workshop:• Criminal activities• Computer viruses• Cyber attacks• Drug trafficking

Aspects of Operational IW

Appropriate for Potential Consideration

in This Workshop:• Guerrilla warfare• Psychological

operations• Terrorism• Intelligence activities

Inappropriate for Potential Consideration

in This Workshop:• Commodities trading

manipulation• Money laundering

Aspects of Strategic IW

Appropriate for Potential Consideration

in This Workshop:• Nation building• Infrastructure

restoration & improvement

• Information operations• Subversion• Population dynamics

Inappropriate for Potential Consideration

in This Workshop:• Political campaigns