mr and the rise of the machines
TRANSCRIPT
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Market Research & The Rise of the Machines
Automa5on & Ar5ficial Intelligence
Ray Poynter April 2016
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Agenda
• Automa(on and society • Automa(on and MR
• Ar(ficial intelligence • The near future • How to be an automa(on winner – Not an automa(on loser
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Automa5on – Good and Bad
When do you prefer handmade?
• Sushi • Haircut • ?
When do you prefer machine made?
• Glasses / contact lens • Computer chips
• ?
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
4 waves of automa5on 1. Muscle is augmented (power tools, harves(ng tools,
steel factories etc) – Meiji restora(on onwards
2. Muscle is replaced (end-‐to-‐end automa(on – ‘lights-‐out factory, e.g. FANUC robo(cs factory)
3. Brain is augmented (Spreadsheets, accounts packages, graphics packages etc)
4. Brain is replaced (SatNav, driverless cars, autopilot, automa(c air condi(oning, etc)
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
System 1 and System 2 thinking
System 1 is our automa(c, heuris(c-‐based thinking – 1+1 or picking your regular toothpaste in the store is System 1
– System 1 is rela(vely easy to automate
System 2 is our considered thinking – Playing Go is System 2 – System 2 requires Ar(ficial Intelligence to automate
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Impact of Automa5on -‐ Glass BoJles • Automated glass blowing invented
Michael Owens, USA, 1905
• Bo]les produced per person up 600% • Price per 100 fell from $1.25 to 10 cents
• Use of glass bo]les increased, especially for food and drink
• Employment, choice, safety increased – But many skilled glass blowers lost their job or had to work for less money
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Automobiles • Before Henry Ford, few cars, few workers, high costs
• 1913 Ford created first moving assembly line
• Cars became be]er, cheaper, and available • Millions of people were employed, the economy grew, hotels and diners were just one by-‐product of Ford’s automa(on
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Impact of Automa5on – Books • In the West, prin(ng press invented 1439 • 1450s bibles are printed – change of power! • Books, newspapers, pamphlets – change of power – Reading became DIY
• Knowledge was stored, shared, and developed
• Prin(ng was the internet of the (me Thomas Paine 1791
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
MR and Automa5on • Punch card reader 1890 US Census, Hollerith
• 1960s & 70s : use of computers to produce tables, SPSS, ques(onnaire scanning
• 1980s : CATI and RDD, DeskTop Publishing, Personal Computers (word-‐processing, spread sheets, PowerPoint, SPSS)
• 1990s : Online surveys, online focus groups, bulle(n board groups
• 2000s : DIY research (e.g. Survey Monkey), Research communi(es, research panels, Social Media analy(cs, Text analy(cs, Dashboards
• 2010s : Produc(sa(on (e.g. ZappiStore), Big Data, passive data, internet of things, automated repor(ng, automa(c facial coding
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Automa5on and Employment Some5mes Good
• Glass making and cars – early 20th Century
• IT – last 50 years • Entertainment • Flying • Finance and investment services
• ?
Some5mes Bad • Prin(ng • Typing • Bank clerks • Steel makers • Assembly-‐line work • Ticket people at sta(ons
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Automa5on and Research Employment More – Programmers – Research directors – Qual researchers – Sales and marke(ng – Customer success managers
– ?
Less – PAs and secretaries – Interviewers – Char(ng teams (e.g. slides, overheads, etc)
– Junior researchers (checking tables etc)
– ?
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Automa5on and Research Quality BeJer
– Cost – Speed – Fewer punching and
processing errors – More op(ons for charts and
infographics – Less human bias – More analyses available – ?
Worse – Smaller propor(on of
popula(on, more open – Interviewers not catching
mistakes and mo(va(ng respondents
– Limited range of solu(ons offered – not designed to customers’ individual needs
– DIY reducing quality – ?
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Millward Brown Link Test & Automa5on
• Leading copy tes(ng product • Benchmarks of over 100,000 tests
• Predesigned – Method – Ques(onnaire – Metrics
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Bespoke
Bespoke PreDesigned -‐ PreMade
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Is Bespoke Research BeJer?
Bespoke designed to meet the client’s needs
But – 75% of the (me not designed by top researchers – Harder to compare with benchmarks – Can miss essen(al ques(ons – Slower – More expensive – Not good for ‘agile’ research – e.g. ‘fail fast’
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Who is DIY MR for? • People learning about research • Small agencies
• Client-‐side researchers, who are researchers
But, they are also used by people who do not know enough about research to be using them.
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Validate.It
Designed for marketers. Proposi(on: All surveys and analyses designed by ‘best in class’ experts
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
GRIT Report – DraV – top 7
41% 39% 35% 34% 32% 29% 24%
23% 29% 30% 28% 19% 19%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Analysis of survey data
Char(ng and
infographics
Analysis of text data
Analysis of social media
Sampling Survey Design
Online focus group/IDI modera(on
In Use Under considera(on
Automa5on PlaXorms In Use or Under Considera5on
GRIT 2016, n=2144
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
GRIT Report – DraV – top 7
21% 20% 19% 13% 11% 10% 8%
18% 26% 16%
17% 13% 16% 13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Report wri(ng
Image & video data
Project Design
A]ribu(on Analy(cs
Match suppliers & buyers
Biometric & nonconsc's
Match talent to projects
In Use Under considera(on
Automa5on PlaXorms In Use or Under Considera5on
GRIT 2016, n=2144
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
How Could Automa5on Help You?
Before you in the pipeline?
• ? AVer you in the pipeline?
• ?
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Agile Research
• High speed, low cost, learn/fail quickly • Tradi(onal projects were like climbing Everest – Base camp, camp 2, 3, 4 and then push for the summit
• Modern business thinking is lean – Trial and Error (Trial and Learn)
• Needs faster and cheaper tools to allow mul(ple research phases.
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Standards
• Sir Joseph Whitworth
• Before 1841 every blacksmith made their own nuts, bolts, etc
• Whitworth created Whitworth Standard
• Allowed flexibility, collabora(on, and agile development (and repair)
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
The New Standards
• R • JSON • Ruby on Rails • Seman(c Web
• Hadoop
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
What (if anything) is holding your organisa5on back from being ‘Agile’
Do you even aspire to Agile?
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
AI is Automa5on applied to the mind
Especially to System 2 thinking
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
AI in our daily lives
• Virtual Personal Assistants (Siri, Google Now, Cortana)
• Video games
• Smart cars (e.g. auto park) • Purchase predic(on (e.g. Amazon)
• Online customer support
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Transla5on and Text Recogni5on • Text recogni(on for analysis is already common
• Voice recogni(on for sales and support is also common
Skype Recogni(on Transla(on Speech Skype
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Sen5ment Analysis
iPhone comments on Facebook before iPhone 4 launch
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
MR Implica5ons of Text, Photos and Pictures
• At the moment most quant studies avoid open-‐ended comments, photos, and videos
• 1 hour of video takes a person 3 hours to process • In the future? – More open-‐ended ques(ons, fewer closed scales – More images – More video
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Associated Press and bot-‐journalism • Before AI – their team of journalists were crea(ng about
300 finance stories a quarter – Topics such as net income, sales etc
• With AI (since 2014) – producing 3,700 stories per quarter – Journalist now check and tweak
• These stories have standard types of input data and a predictable range of stories
• Sounds a lot like a tracking report or a concept test report!
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Chess, Go, and the implica5ons for AI • In 1997 IBM’s Deep Blue beat the Gary Kasparov (best player in the world) at chess
• 2016 Google’s AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol (best player in the world) at Go
• Deep Blue was an expert system and used brute force – the key was programming
• AlphaGo used machine learning – the key was training
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
MicrosoV’s foul-‐mouthed, racist chatbot
• March 23, 2016 – Microsop create Tay an AI chatbot
• Very quickly Twi]er users train Tay to be racist, foul-‐mouthed and to talk about sex
• March 25 – Tay is taken down
• We’ve learned a lesson about AI and about the nega(ve side of people
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Intellec5on Expert System Automa5on for MR Reports
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
When does automa5on aid employment? When the cost and/or speed improvements grow the market by more than the increased produc(vity per person
Market = 100 widgets per day. 10 people produce 10 widgets each
Automa5on & Market A 1 person can produce 50 widgets Market grows to 200 widgets per day 4 people employed
Automa5on & Market B 1 person can produce 50 widgets Market grows to 2000 widgets per day 40 people employed
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Where will AI make a difference 1. Project design
– Sample, scales, method, ques(onnaire, discussion guide – Fewer people, be]er designs, fewer mistakes
2. Project management – Booking the fieldwork, placing contracts, monitoring, adjus(ng, crea(ng top-‐line reports – Fewer people, fewer mistakes
3. Standard reports – Tracking, customer sa(sfac(on, concept tests – Fewer people, easier to use reports, less impact when a big story is found
4. Analysis of open-‐ends, pictures, video – Leading to an increase in the use of all three, fewer closed ques(ons – More people, more insight, more storytelling
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Where will AI make a difference -‐ 2 5. Managing and modera(ng large research communi(es
– Member queries, engagement, chatbot moderators – Larger communi(es, more insight, similar number of researchers
6. Advanced analy(cs – Social media, big data, longitudinal analysis, programma(c marke(ng, a]ribu(on analysis – More analy(cs, growth in the number of analysts, people skilled at using the AI
7. Research bots – Sopware that will search exis(ng data sources, e.g. studies, public data, social media and find
answers to research ques(ons – Will replace some researchers, but will lead to growth in people running research bots, new
agencies?
• Overall, over 10 years, I expect 60% of current MR jobs to go, and perhaps 20-‐30% new jobs to be created
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Be an automa5on winner Not an automa5on loser
• Client success managers • Bespoke researchers – Qual and quant
• Entrepreneurs / Interpreneurs • The people introducing and u(lising Automa(on and AI • Performers – Storytellers, illustrators, video makers, sales people, writers, nego(ators …
Market Research and the rise of the machines – Automa5on and AI
Thank You!
Follow me on TwiJer @RayPoynter
Or sign-‐up to receive our weekly mailing at hJp://NewMR.org