motivation model simulations for california have usually underestimated ozone concentrations aloft
DESCRIPTION
Model Aloft Study Ola Persson, Jian-Wen Bao, Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak NOAA/ Environmental Technology Laboratory. Motivation Model simulations for California have usually underestimated ozone concentrations aloft CCOS IOP simulations have under-predicted surface ozone concentrations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Model Aloft Study
Ola Persson, Jian-Wen Bao,Sara Michelson
Jim Wilczak
NOAA/ Environmental Technology Laboratory
• Motivation– Model simulations for California have usually
underestimated ozone concentrations aloft– CCOS IOP simulations have under-predicted surface
ozone concentrations
• Hypotheses– Improper IC and BC’s– Insufficient model resolution– Too strong winds in stagnant conditions– Too weak of mixing of PBL O3 to layers above– Too weak recirculation of upslope flow back over CV– Errors in characterization of chemistry– Emissions
NOAA & STI Components
• NOAA: O3 & meteorological fields– initial and boundary conditions– meteorological dependent O3 formation– mixing– transport
• STI: all chemical species– initial and boundary conditions– chemical mechanism– emissions
Planned Analysis (NOAA)
• MM5-CAMx and Hybrid comparisons for July-August and September 2000 IOP’s (utilizing ozone aloft data as well as meteorological obs)
• Produce new simulations with WRF-Chem model
• Run additional simulations with improved MM5-CAMx model.
CAMx Experiments
• 'A60' MM5 without observational FDDA • 'A59' MM5 with observational FDDA• 'A53' meteorology from the CALMET/MM5
hybrid
• The two MM5-CAMx simulations used 40ppbv lateral and top boundary conditions
• Hybrid run used a truncated model to 5 km, with 70ppbv lateral and top boundary conditions
Ozone sonde evaluationJuly-August IOP
• Parlier (16 sondes)
• Granite Bay (12 sondes)
Parlier ozone sonde site
Granite Bay ozone sonde site
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 0 010 1020 2030 30 30
30
40 4050 5060 60
60
607070
70
7080
80
90110
80
80
70
50
80
80
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-75
-65-65
-65
-65 -65
-55
-55
-55
-45
-45
-35-35
-35
-35
-25
-25-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
-15-5 5
5
-15
15
5
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
80
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 010 1020 20 2030 30
30
40 4050 5060 60
60
60
70
7080 90
80
90
80
50
8080
80
80
80
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-65-65
-65
-65
-55
-55
-45
-45
-45
-35-35
-35
-35
-25
-25
-25
-15
-15-15
-15
-15
-5
-5
5
1525
-35
-15
15
-35
-5
15
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
50
90
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 010 10 1020 20
20
30 30
30
40 405060 60 60
6060
70
70 80
80
90
80
808080
90
80
90
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55
-45
-45
-35
-35
-35 -35
-25
-25
-25
-15
-15
-25-25
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
MM5
MM5-FDDA
Sonde
Parlier
Hybrid80
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 010 1020 20 2030 30
30
40 4050 5060 60
60
60
70
7080 90
80
90
80
50
8080
80
80
80
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-65-65
-65-65
-55
-55
-45
-45-45
-35-35
-35-35
-25
-25-25
-15
-15-15
-15-15
-5
-5
5
1525
-35
-15
15
-35
-5
15
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 0 010 1020 2030 30 30
30
40 4050 5060 60
60
607070
70
7080
80
90110
80
80
70
50
80
80
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-75
-65-65
-65
-65 -65
-55
-55
-55
-45
-45
-35-35
-35
-35
-25
-25-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
-15-5 5
5
-15
15
5
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
80
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 010 1020 20 2030 30
30
40 4050 5060 60
60
60
70
7080 90
80
90
80
50
8080
80
80
80
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-65-65
-65
-65
-55
-55
-45
-45
-45
-35-35
-35
-35
-25
-25
-25
-15
-15-15
-15
-15
-5
-5
5
1525
-35
-15
15
-35
-5
15
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
MM5-FDDA
Hybrid
50
90
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 010 10 1020 20
20
30 30
30
40 405060 60 60
6060
70
70 80
80
90
80
808080
90
80
90
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55
-45
-45
-35
-35
-35 -35
-25
-25
-25
-15
-15
-25-25
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Parlier for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
MM5
Parlier Bias
30
50
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 0 0
000
10
1010
20 20
2020
30 30
3030
40 40
40
50
5050
60 60
60
70
80
60
8080
70
70
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55 -55
-45-45
-45
-45
-35
-35
-25-25
-25
-25
-15
-15
-5
-5-5 515
-35
15
-25
25
25
5
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
30
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
000
10 10
1010
20 20
2020
30 30 30
303030
40
40
50
5050
60
60
70
70 80
60
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55
-45-45
-45
-35-35
-35
-35
-25
-15
-15-15
-15
-5
-55
-25
15 255
-35
5 515 25
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
000
10
1010
20
2020
30 30
3030
40
40
50 5060 60
60
70
70
80
70
80
70 70
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-65-65
-65
-55
-55
-45-35-25
-25
-15-15
-15
-5-5-5 55
15
-5
15
-5
5
5
-5
5
51525
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
30
50
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 0 0
000
10
1010
20 20
2020
30 30
3030
40 40
40
50
5050
60 60
60
70
80
60
8080
70
70
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55 -55
-45-45
-45
-45
-35
-35
-25-25
-25
-25
-15
-15
-5
-5-5 515
-35
15
-25
25
25
5
Year Day (2000)
Hei
ght (
m)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Granite Bay
MM5
MM5-FDDA
Hybrid
Sonde
30
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
000
10 10
1010
20 20
2020
30 30 30
303030
40
40
50
5050
60
60
70
70 80
60
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55
-45-45
-45
-35-35
-35
-35
-25
-15
-15-15
-15
-5
-55
-25
15 255
-35
5 515 25
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A59
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
000
10
1010
20
2020
30 30
3030
40
40
50 5060 60
60
70
70
80
70
80
70 70
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75
-75
-65-65
-65
-55
-55
-45-35-25
-25
-15-15
-15
-5-5-5 55
15
-5
15
-5
5
5
-5
5
51525
Year Day (2000)
Heig
ht (m
)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A53
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
30
50
Year Day (2000)
Heigh
t (m
)
CAMx O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 0 0
000
10
1010
20 20
2020
30 30
3030
40 40
40
50
5050
60 60
60
70
80
60
8080
70
70
Year Day (2000)
Heigh
t (m
)
sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
-75-75
-75
-65
-65
-65
-55
-55 -55
-45-45
-45
-45
-35
-35
-25-25
-25
-25
-15
-15
-5
-5-5 515
-35
15
-25
25
25
5
Year Day (2000)
Heigh
t (m
)
CAMx-sonde O3 concentration (ppb) at Granite Bay for exp. A60
211 211.5 212 212.5 213 213.5 214 214.5 2150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Granite BayBias
MM5
MM5-FDDA
Hybrid
Parlier
MM5-FDDA Hybrid
SondeModelBias
Granite Bay
MM5-FDDA Hybrid
Bias
Parlier Granite Bay
MM5MM5-FDDAHybrid
RMS difference
Parlier Granite Bay
MM5MM5-FDDAHybrid
Correlation Coefficient
Parlier Granite Bay
Cor Coef Cor Coef
Biggest differences aloft among 3 models are due to larger O3 value used as lateral
and top boundary condition
What is the most appropriate value for BC for ozone?
Trinidad Head (NOAA/CMDL)
Trinidad Head Summer 2000
11 soundings
Median ozone profiles at all IONS sites, July 1 – August 15, 2004
Owen Cooper, AL/NOAASummer 2004 Ozone Sondes
Owen Cooper, AL/NOAA
Owen Cooper, AL/NOAA
Owen Cooper, AL/NOAA
AsianPlume
Qing Liang/UW
Observed Chemical Composition of Asian PlumesBackground Asian Plumes Observed Δ
CO, ppbv 94 113 +19
O3, ppbv 74 100 +26
HNO3, pptv 237 362 +125
NOx, pptv 345 372 +27
PAN, pptv 335 605 +270
HCN, pptv 271 417 +146
Ethane, pptv 744 924 +180
Acetylene, pptv 84 177 +93
Acetone, pptv 1471 2162 +691
Benzene, pptv 13 21 +9
Methanol, pptv 1364 2370 +1006
SO4=, pptv 76 61 -15
Qing Liang/UW
• TH ozone sondes suggest that mean tropospheric lateral bc’s should be approximately 60 ppbv
• Significant departures from 60 ppbv can occur due to tropopause folding events and due to asian plumes
• Significant height variation exists in the mean TH profile, especially in lowest 2 km
NWS Eta-CMAQ Boundary Conditions
• CMAQ-Eta simulations for the summer of 2004 in New England over-predicted surface ozone by ~10 ppb. Mathur (2005) traced this bias to too high of ozone values for lateral and top boundary conditions.
• Present CMAQ-Eta operational model uses O3 lateral and top boundaries from the GFS global model for heights > 6km, climatology below.
Satellite Measurements of Chemical Species
• O3• CO• CH4• CO2• NO2• HCHO• SO2• AOD, etc.
• AIRS• MODIS• SCIAMACHY• MOPITT• GOME, etc.
Recommended areas of investigation – High bias at coastal
sites and over land at night
• Sensitivity tests to height-dependent O3 profile in initial state and at lateral inflow boundaries
• Vertical resolution of CAMx near surface
• Chemical deposition over water
• Kz in stable conditions
• Chemical processing in off-shore stratus(?)
Recommended areas of investigation – Low bias at land
sites during day
• Sensitivity tests to larger O3 lateral and top boundary values (30-110 ppbv)
• Higher vertical resolution chemistry model simulation to reduce mixing between PBL and aloft
Next steps
• Analyze day and night profile statistics separately at Parlier and Granite Bay
• Compare 3 models with Trinidad Head O3 soundings
• Compare 3 models with aircraft observations• Repeat analysis using MM5-CMAQ from
Seasonal Modeling study• Add MM5-CAMx runs using hourly averaged
model winds• Add WRF-Chem run using CARB emission
inventory• Repeat all of analysis for September IOP